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https://www.ncaa.com/news/wrestling/article/2023-03-07/ncaa-announces-large-selections-2023-division-i-wrestling-championships

When my kids were little and they would complain about something it usually took the form of "I never get to ____, you always get to ____" and was usually directed at a sibling. Oh, and it was always wrong. So, I would respond with "I don't want to hear 'I never, you always' ". Some of the debates on here can take that form. It is especially the case with NCAA performance. People say some form of "my team always out performs their seed, but your team always under performs". Is that true? At the risk of ending the debate (ha, ha, ha) I present some data on how teams perform at NCAA's based on 2010 - 2022 results. This gets a bit tricky when you span 12 seed, 16 seed, and 33 seed tournaments. To deal with that: An unseeded wrestler can only perform at their seed or better than their seed in my world. Meanwhile, a seeded wrestler has all three options available to them. Not a perfect choice, but here we are, none the less. Also, I use the midpoint of the range for non-All Americans. So, a wrestler knocked out in the blood round gets credit for finishing 10.5 ( (12+9)/2 ), if they were not seeded 9 through 12. If they were seeded 9 through 12, they get credit for “At Seed”. How Often? The first set of three columns shows the % of times a team falls into each category (Better Than Seed, At Seed, or Worse Than Seed) By How Much? The second set of three columns shows the average of the degree of performance. So when Minnesota outperforms their seed they do it by an average of 3.9 spots. Yeah, But Where Did They Start? The the third set of three columns shows what the average seed was by category. The obvious conclusion is that Little Rock is the most under rated tournament team of all time. Do not open your gate for these Trojan horses. With no further ado, the top 20 by "Better" %:

I’ll go with Ryan Jack of NC State. He’s the little brother of Kevin Jack, a 3 time all American. Ryan is 23-3 on the year. Losses were by a combined total of 4 points. 2 losses were to Cole Matthews, and he went 1-1 against Brock Hardy this year. I don’t think he’s gotten a ton of national love, but he’s a guy you don’t want to see on your side of the bracket either. He feels like a lock to at least AA and has the upside to make a run to the finals.

Hatters gonna hat.

Illegal. As has been said, there was no doubt after he clearly left his feet. Good on the ref for calling it "without hesitation" and not wavering. That's not an easy spot to be in.

Yeah, I don't think it was malicious as Gomez wrestles with high intensity, but it looked to me like he left his own feet, which will definitely get you DQ. He also brought him down on his head. If you have your opponent up in the air, it is your responsibility to bring them down in a safe and controlled manner.

Having done this multiple times in my career, it's the spot that TV wants but it doesn't work great for wrestling given the immediacy of the interviews. You never get good answers, but you always want the emotional response. For every "work hard and get better" response from a "what do you need to do" question, you get the "I just want some ice cream." The networks will gamble to get that ice cream line every time. A few years ago, they did Sparks with breakaways, which gave us the Sam Brooks mullet moment, but that's very rare in television these days. Ray Flores is a professional, but he's got a no-win position there. You have to ask quick question, realizing these are NOT for the die-hard. Everyone watching knows more than Ray does. You will never get that kind of insight from a post-match interview. He's good apparently at boxing (I don't watch boxing anymore), and he's a good broadcaster, but sometimes good broadcasters get stuck in gigs they do a decent enough job at for the networks but will always be reviled by the die-hards. Quint, for example. That role deserves a little grace.

Since you didn't specify current I will go back just a few years to pick Mike Macchiavello. I told this story on the old board, so bear with me if you already read it. My wife and I had never been to an NCAA tournament before, but got last second tickets to the 2018 finals in Cleveland in the mezzanine seats. There was an elevator you could take to get to the seats. When we got on the elevator the first day Mike Macchiavello was already on it. We struck up a brief conversation and wished him well. He seemed genuinely, pleasantly surprised that someone following another team would wish him good luck. After that we watched all his matches and were excited for him when he won 197. "Hey, we met that guy." The next year I was in Pittsburgh alone. Also last second tickets, so I flew in late Thursday night. When I got to the elevator at the hotel the doors open and who is getting off, but Mike Macchiavello? He looks at me with that vague sense of recognition that says, "where have I seen this guy before?" So I tell him about my wife and I meeting him on an elevator and wishing him luck the prior year. He immediately smiles and says, "that's why I won." To then hear Christian Pyles refer to Mike Machiavello as the nicest man in wrestling on FRL made me feel even better about the interaction.

Here is the TV schedule that is posted on the NCAA website: ROUND DAY DATE TIME (CT) NETWORK Session 1 Thursday morning March 16 11 a.m. ESPNU Session 2 Thursday evening March 16 6 p.m. ESPN Session 3 Friday morning March 17 11 a.m. ESPNU Session 4 Friday evening March 17 7 p.m. ESPN Session 5 Saturday morning March 18 10 a.m. ESPNU Session 6 Saturday evening March 18 6 p.m. ESPN What I don't see (and apologies if there is another thread with this information) is the mapping of these broadcasts with the rounds, e.g. which session has the quarters, semis, etc. vs. the consis? Thanks in advance for the answers or a pointer to a link with the answers.

I think and obvious choice is Ethan Laird, Rider. I think a less obvious choice is Will Lewan, Michigan.

I would like to thank the committee for taking my recommendation.

Really funny stuff:

Cam Caffey Been convinced he was podium material since his Big 10 finals match with Aaron Brooks. Time for him to get on the podium.

Will Fix lose for a 4th time in the NCAA final? Can the Big Ten conference win 9 out of 10 titles? Will we see two finals pitting former (or current) NCAA champs against one another: C-Starr vs. Lewis and Griffith/O'Toole/Carr Can a freshman win NCAAs this year? Will Big Ten teams sweep the podium? Which weight will be the last one to go on Saturday night? How soon or how late will the team race be decided? Will the Hodge race be locked up when NCAAs are over? What is the over/under on Will Lewan's matches going to SV with 4 or fewer total points being scored? And, of course, will the Mongolians take off their clothes and jump around if they disagree with a referee decision ... oh wait, that is freestyle

Slipped my mind, but not having a fifth-place match where they earned four automatics really hurts the conference. That's something that really needs to be looked at during the offseason, and it's something that other conferences that don't place their whole field (most notably the conferences with "Big" in their name) have figured out.

Levi Haines

Bono needs to work the wrestler, not the ref. That is uncalled for behavior. mspart

Maybe Pucino shouldn't have lost to the 14th seeded Maryland kid not once but twice.

I am not happy with 141. Seems like a "spread the wealth" formula determined the bids. Cael Happel and three from the B1G should've been the call: Pucino, Mattin and Oliveri. Instead, only Mattin from the conference.

How salty is Dustin Norris now knowing the Teske debacle cost him a spot?

they did not find my cases compelling. disappointed for Berreyesa and Furman. Also surprised that McGonagle got an at-large but I can't imagine he's able to use it. would be great if he's recovered but the way he was carried off the mat, it would be a pleasant surprise.

Was this a duel at sunrise? Maybe the sun was in your eye? Did your opponent attack the hip?

Agree with everything, and intent doesn't really matter. Opponent also ended up concussed.

Can't slam from a double? I wonder if Mr. Bono knows that you can even slam from bottom?

That's fair. July I'd count with high school too.

Trevor Chumbley. Name alone justifies it. And of course Cam Caffey - coolest guy in wrestling.

Nickname: "The Lottery"

Opinions on the octo-mats?

Jaxon Smith. Yes he's only a freshman but the Terps need an AA.

If the Mongolians are available, I will pay to fly them in to handle any and all coaches' challenges.

To clarify these are my predictions ok who will AA at each weight prior to seeing the seeds. these are not predictions on seeds.

Not if he signs the damn paper

Will it be Bono’s fault?

Will the Brands or Manning take their clothes off once they're out of challenges in protest of a ref's call?

great case i'm convinced

This isn’t the first time they have had this convo. I think it’s developed into a running joke on their part

Penn u 149 Doug Zapf I think spelled wrong. But losing to Chappel i immediately thought hes out. I thought had pretty good year to earn out large bid. No skin in game. From Chappel school district so was following.

Charlie Jones - In the Air Force for 6 years.... went to Purdue and won the NCAA title at 167 in 1992 I believe. His son, Charlie Jones was a second team all-american in football this year (at Purdue).

I like the ones you mentioned. Also always liked Edinboro:

Kevin Hoy 2nd at 285 in 2003. How is it Air Force has a bunch of guys who can't fit in a cockpit?

I must be confused about who earned the automatic qualifiers. Congrats to Mizzou, that is big. Even if I were right about the AQs, Jaques would almost certainly be an at large qualifier and Mizzou would still get 10.

Surely you’re not dumb enough to argue that going for a stalemate is unique to Iowa wrestlers…

lol pretty much god i hate watching him

Thanks. Nobody has a sense of humor anymore. Stiff sourpusses!

He would have been really old to win an NCAA title....I think he is pushing 60 now...

We depend upon "go ahead and..." for our drinking game. Gibbons gets to work BTN until he decides he's done.

My only complaint was that when they were joking about something instead of commenting you could hear Casey Cunningham coaching in the background. They thought their stuff was so funny they got louder and drowned out Cunningham. I love all three guys, but I really would rather have listened to Cunningham.

I don't think he needs a change of scenery, just a year of health. Dude had a BRUTAL injury last year to that elbow. I think it was replacing the ball that goes into the elbow joint. That doesn't help much with your weight training. And then this year just drilled onto the mat with that double. Nothing dirty, but just bad luck. You can land like that a dozen times and one fluke time your shoulder comes out or you break a collar bone. I think he's in a good place at UM and I'm hoping he can come back next year, get back to where he was LAST year, #1 at one point. He seems like a good dude. Obviously tough. Season is probably over and I imagine he'll be training like a madman from now until next season and I see no reason he can't have a big comeback season and...who knows? Maybe he puts together a run. Or maybe he hangs it up as it'd be his 6th year with the extra Covid year. But if he did wrestle for the last time, I'll remember him trying to gut out another painful looking injury and just battling.

If wrestler A attacks and wrestler B defends by going to the ankles. OK If wrestler A attacks and wrestler B defends by going to the ankles a second time. OK If wrestler A attacks and wrestler B defends by going to the ankles for a third time, then wrestler B is stalling. Its a matter of repetition. If wrestler B doesn't create any offense but is constantly attacked, then wrestler B is stalling. If wrestler B uses an ankle to counter a TD attempt and win the takedown himself, that is a different matter. mspart

It’s because BTN commented on her every single broadcast during the Marinelli era. The creepy comes from the BTN guys.