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Mark Hall, Pat Lugo, Luke Pletcher, and Kollin Moore were all #1 seeds.

For me, I would say 5 is relevant only because he accepted the burden of pursuing it. As history has shown, there are no guarantees. There is a constant emergence of new talent that challenges the great ones. There is the risk of injury. If he doesn’t win #5, I have to think his legacy is tarnished. So there has to be some relevance to him going for it. However, if he does win #5, I still rank Dake ahead of him because for me, going 4/4 without a red-shirt and at 4 different weight classes is a more impressive accomplishment than going 5/5.

My heart hurt the most for Luke pletcher and kollin Moore at the time

Most underwhelming 4 tome champ easily. Changing that number to a 5 doesn’t do much to move the needle for me

125-Spencer Lee wins it and he's now on the list of all-time greats instead of a source of revenue for Lens Crafters and a triggering topic for...Calveria or whatever. 133-This is a 3 way between RBY getting his first, Sebastian Rivera winning a title and Seth Gross getting his 2nd. SeeBass is the sentimental pick for me. 141-Pletcher, Lee or Real Woods...My pick is Pletcher 149-Lugo or Kolodzik IMO. `157-If Deakin wins this year I think he's a 3X Champ. He was just SO tight at the Nationals and looked so...afraid to lose(and still won a one). Maybe if he wins early. David Carr...he ended up being solid. Hidlay, Monday... I think it'd have been Hidlay though. 165-Joseph 174-Hall(though...there was a Valencia in there). 184-Aaron Brooks 197-Moore HWT-Gable

... d*ck

Shane liegal may be a good example. 24 seed went 2-2 at NCAAs (d1) last year. Was a 4x AA 2x finalist 1x d3 champ at Loras college. https://duhawks.com/sports/wrestling/roster/shane-liegel/11154

1995 AA Doug Zembiec - The Lion of Fallujah. What a man. Always makes me sad when seeing his name. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_A._Zembiec

No, the chances of at least one champ are 46.9% and the chances of no one in the finals are only 14.7%. That makes sense since you would need a high probability of being in the finals (85.3%) to have a even-ish chance to win a title or two. But one thing to keep in mind with all these probabilities is that any of this stuff could still happen. It is good to remember that based on their seeds the 2001 Minnesota team had a 0.8% chance of ten AA's. Yet they had 10 AA's.

I think this idea was well received last year, so lets run it back this year. Come one, come all and see if you can dethrone the defending champion @Hwt1. Many tried last year (there were 39 entries), but all failed. Hwt1 is looking to become the Cael Sanderson of prognosticators. I, for one, intend to be the Larry Owings of challengers. Who is with me? Rules: Pick one wrestler at each weight with a seed between 17 and 33. Tournament scoring. 1 point for a champ bracket win, 1/2 point for a consolation win, standard placement points, and bonus points also apply. The person whose "team" scores the most is the winner. Tiebreakers: Score of lowest seeded wrestler between the two teams combined. (if Team A picks all 17 seeds and Team B picks all 18 seeds, Team B wins automatically). If both teams have the same lowest seed with the same points (i.e. still tied) then the next lowest from each team are compared until a difference is found. If still tied, the wrestler with the highest percentage of their college team's points. (if Team A has a wrestler from Little Rock who scores LR's only points of the tournament, and Team B has a wrestler from Campbell who scores half of Campbell's points for the tournament, Team A wins). Submit your entries here and I will track. Feel free to change as many times as you like up until Wednesday night. One caveat: This year I may not have as much time to do round by round updates due to commitments, but I will try. Last Year's Results for reference.

I think people don't realize how good Keck is. Keck could easily be a three timer if he didn't have two 4x champs at his weight. Keck is a monster. If Starocci wins that will be his signature win. I think it would give Starocci an argument for greatest college wrestler of all time. At worst it's puts him 3rd behind Cael and Dake. It definitely puts him first on Penn states mt Rushmore.

It will take some time to understand the significance of those matches. The two freshman haven't been beaten by anyone else. Wins over them could enhance his already impressive resume. Logan Stieber lost to a true freshman his senior year. That freshman went on to win 3 NCAA titles and two Hoge awards.

If I counted correctly, Cael had 18 bonus point victories at NCAAs. To put in perspective vs dake 9 vs carter 4. 18. That’s crazy. Malik amine already said on big 10 live tv it puts him (cstall) ahead of Cael. Solely because of the 5. Media needs talking points but that idea is 183% nonsense.

Being a four-timer is super impressive. It takes an insane amount of work and talent and at least some luck (to be healthy enough to compete) to win a single title. But when you consider that each year brings with it new challenges — new competitors, old competitors focusing on you, perhaps new rules or tactics, new injury possibilities, momentary mental lapses that cost you a match at NCAAs, etc — winning four times in a row is incredible. In general, I think fans put too much of a premium on all time discussions and not enough of a premium on appreciating the performances in front of us. Let’s give these athletes their props.

I believe he was originally going to ORS that year and ended up competing half way through the year only to get it canceled

Dake won his first title 9 months after graduating high school. He beat a very good Marion in the final. The next year he ground a future undefeated national champion into Molinaro dust. The next year he beat a future national champion in the final. And then he went up a weight class to take on the defending and future Hodge winner and future Olympic gold medalist and beat him three times in three different kinds of matches. To me only Cael could potentially challenge that career, and I'd put Dake over him because of the redshirt.

https://www.trackwrestling.com/tw/predefinedtournaments/VerifyPassword.jsp?tournamentId=503102132 Sebass the 1 seed at 133. maybe his best shot at a title. he moved up to 141 the next year. Jordan Kutler never gets brought up but he had a solid shot at a title and was a true finalist contender as the 3 seed. 21-1 only losing to Mark Hall in the dual (7-2) Taylor Lujan was BRUTAL. R16-BR-BR then the 1 seed when it was canceled. never got on the podium.

This is one of those topics where I feel like I have an immediate opinion, start writing it out...then realize I need to research about 10 guys

Chaz Tucker?

Seth Gross Mark Hall Luke Pletcher Kollin Moore

what a name that is

@killdozer is up for two picks. You dick.

Zach Redding in the portal! That will be a great pickup for someone who needs a 141 lber.

Hey man, we're trying to figure out the last spot. If we don't get a taker by 3:30, we're dropping to 14.

Gentlemen...

Vito’s dad in Vito’s post-championship interview was a favorite of mine.

My probably-idiotic theory is that Caliendo wrestled a much tougher match at Big Tens because he had a lot more time off the scales than he did during prior matches against Mesenbrink. Cal on Saturday night at NCAAs, if he makes it there, will be a full-sized, fully hydrated and nourished, strong as an ox Caliendo. It still may not be enough to take out MM, but I think he'll have his best chance then.

I wrestled D2. Graduated in early 90s. I had a teammate qualify for the d1 tourney. Another guy, my roommate was 5th in D2 and had multiple wins over qualifiers including splitting with a R12 guy, including a win by major in their last meeting as seniors. A lot has changed in 30 years. The D1s are better at recruiting and don't miss on as many guys. The d1 training and coaching is better than it was, I think. Also the lower divisions don't get to challenge themselves as much against the big boys anymore. My roommate had a much closer match against the r12 guy than he thought it would be in their first meeting. That gave him a lot of confidence. When they met each other again less than a month later, my roommate took it to him and even turned the guy. I'm not sure how much that could happen these days.I mean, I was maybe above average d2 and I would hold d1 qualifiers/top 20 types to a regular decision if I had a decent match.

Idk anything about him, but with D1 wrestling being what it is these days why not go back to the pre-1980 or whatever format and give an AQ spot or two to the D2/D3 champs & runners-up? It would be fun to see those guys bang with D1 wrestlers and maybe cause some bracket chaos. Perhaps earn a D1 NIL opportunity in the process. Hopefully it wouldn't ruin D2 & D3 wrestling, but I assume they're getting looks all the same from the bigger programs looking for transfers.

Almost beat KOT last week, but has to get through Haines to get another shot at him. Would be awesome if Hamiti finally won a NC.

Reminder that the draft begins at 3PM EASTERN today, not noon.

reporter: "is this the last of Steve Mocco?" Mocco: "I didn't take my f*cking shoes off..."

100% Sammy brooks interview when I think he won B10’s…. Comparing a big 10 championship to growing a mullet

D2: 1 Neb.-Kearney, NE Nebraska-Kearney, NE (GET) UNK 10 115.0 2 Augustana (SD), SD Augustana (SD), SD (GET) AUG 4 63.0 3 St. Cloud St., MN St. Cloud State, MN (GET) SCSU 8 57.5 4 Lander, SC Lander , SC (GET) LAND 8 56.0 5 Central Okla., OK Central Oklahoma, OK (GET) UCO 6 55.5 6 UMary, ND UMary, ND (GET) UMARY 5 51.0 7 Central Mo., MO Central Missouri, MO (GET) UCM 4 43.0 8 Kutztown, PA Kutztown, PA (GET) KUTZ 6 42.5 9 Maryville (MO), MO Maryville, MO (GET) MU 3 39.0 10 West Liberty, WV West Liberty, WV (GET) WLU 3 38.5 11 UIndy, IN Indianapolis, IN (GET) UINDY 6 38.0 12 Glenville St., WV Glenville State, WV (GET) GSU 7 36.0 13 Pitt-Johnstown, PA Pitt-Johnstown, PA (GET) UPJ 5 33.5 14 Grand Valley St., MI Grand Valley State, MI (GET) GVSU 5 32.0 14 McKendree, IL McKendree, IL (GET) MCK 7 32.0 16 Gannon, PA Gannon, PA (GET) GU 9 31.0 17 Colorado Mesa, CO Colorado Mesa, CO (GET) CMU 5 30.0 17 Minnesota St., MN Minnesota State, MN (GET) MSU 3 30.0 19 Wis.-Parkside, WI Wisconsin-Parkside, WI (GET) UWP 5 28.0 20 Tiffin, OH Tiffin, OH (GET) TU 4 27.5 125 Guaranteed Places 1st Place - Jakason Burks of Central Mo. 2nd Place - Zachary Ourada of Neb.-Kearney 3rd Place - Jaxson Rohman of Augustana (SD) 4th Place - Trevon Gray of Pitt-Johnstown 5th Place - Shane Corrigan of Wis.-Parkside 6th Place - Anthony Aniciete of Tiffin 7th Place - Dayson Torgerson of Colorado Mesa 8th Place - Colton Drousias of Glenville St. 1st Place Match Jakason Burks (Central Mo.) 31-4, Sr. over Zachary Ourada (Neb.-Kearney) 18-5, Jr. (Dec 5-2) 3rd Place Match Jaxson Rohman (Augustana (SD)) 23-5, Sr. over Trevon Gray (Pitt-Johnstown) 27-8, RS Jr. (Fall 2:20) 5th Place Match Shane Corrigan (Wis.-Parkside) 25-12, Jr. over Anthony Aniciete (Tiffin) 23-7, RS So. (Dec 10-8) 7th Place Match Dayson Torgerson (Colorado Mesa) 23-8, So. over Colton Drousias (Glenville St.) 31-16, RS Jr. (MD 8-0) 133 Guaranteed Places 1st Place - Reece Barnhardt of UMary 2nd Place - Peter Rolle of Central Okla. 3rd Place - Christian Davis of Lander 4th Place - James Anderson of Ouachita Baptist 5th Place - Hector Serratos of Neb.-Kearney 6th Place - Sam Spencer of St. Cloud St. 7th Place - Jeremiah Echevarria of Gannon 8th Place - Max Shore of Tiffin 1st Place Match Reece Barnhardt (UMary) 30-3, Sr. over Peter Rolle (Central Okla.) 21-4, RS So. (Dec 10-4) 3rd Place Match Christian Davis (Lander) 34-7, Fr. over James Anderson (Ouachita Baptist) 23-9, Jr. (MD 19-6) 5th Place Match Hector Serratos (Neb.-Kearney) 24-7, Sr. over Sam Spencer (St. Cloud St.) 27-7, RS Fr. (MD 12-1) 7th Place Match Jeremiah Echevarria (Gannon) 27-6, RS Jr. over Max Shore (Tiffin) 27-9, RS So. (Dec 4-2) 141 Guaranteed Places 1st Place - Johnny Lopez of San Fran. St. 2nd Place - Khyvon Grace of West Liberty 3rd Place - Sean Solis of UMary 4th Place - Joseph Airola of Neb.-Kearney 5th Place - Colton Stoneking of Fairmont St. 6th Place - Isham Peace of Lander 7th Place - Ronan Schuelke of McKendree 8th Place - Luke Kunath of Belmont Abbey 1st Place Match Johnny Lopez (San Fran. St.) 27-2, RS So. over Khyvon Grace (West Liberty) 15-7, Jr. (Dec 8-7) 3rd Place Match Sean Solis (UMary) 28-7, RS So. over Joseph Airola (Neb.-Kearney) 21-9, Jr. (Dec 12-7) 5th Place Match Colton Stoneking (Fairmont St.) 32-6, Jr. over Isham Peace (Lander) 30-7, Sr. (MD 12-3) 7th Place Match Ronan Schuelke (McKendree) 27-7, RS Jr. over Luke Kunath (Belmont Abbey) 14-9, Jr. (MD 12-0) 149 1st Place - Cael Larson of Augustana (SD) 2nd Place - Nick James of Neb.-Kearney 3rd Place - Brennan Watkins of King (TN) 4th Place - Dean Noble of Western Colo. 5th Place - Jackson Hoover of UIndy 6th Place - Chris Donathan of Grand Valley St. 7th Place - Joey Semerad of McKendree 8th Place - Gabriel Onorato of Glenville St. 1st Place Match Cael Larson (Augustana (SD)) 23-5, RS Jr. over Nick James (Neb.-Kearney) 7-1, RS Sr. (Dec 8-1) 3rd Place Match Brennan Watkins (King (TN)) 27-10, RS Jr. over Dean Noble (Western Colo.) 22-5, . (Dec 9-8) 5th Place Match Jackson Hoover (UIndy) 19-5, Sr. over Chris Donathan (Grand Valley St.) 14-1, Jr. (M. For.) 7th Place Match Joey Semerad (McKendree) 31-9, Sr. over Gabriel Onorato (Glenville St.) 26-12, RS Jr. (Dec 5-4) 157 Guaranteed Places 1st Place - Gabe Johnson of Central Okla. 2nd Place - Joel Jesuroga of St. Cloud St. 3rd Place - Aaden Valdez of Adams St. 4th Place - Owen Cline of Colorado Mesa 5th Place - Caleb Meunier of Minnesota St. 6th Place - John Ridle of Central Mo. 7th Place - Kaden Renner of UMary 8th Place - Casey Barnett of Tiffin 1st Place Match Gabe Johnson (Central Okla.) 26-1, RS Fr. over Joel Jesuroga (St. Cloud St.) 26-1, RS So. (SV-1 4-1) 3rd Place Match Aaden Valdez (Adams St.) 21-2, RS Fr. over Owen Cline (Colorado Mesa) 16-5, RS So. (M. For.) 5th Place Match Caleb Meunier (Minnesota St.) 32-9, RS Jr. over John Ridle (Central Mo.) 27-9, RS Sr. (MD 8-0) 7th Place Match Kaden Renner (UMary) 18-10, RS So. over Casey Barnett (Tiffin) 19-6, RS Jr. (Fall 2:27) 165 Guaranteed Places 1st Place - David Hunsberger of Lander 2nd Place - Jack Haskin of Lake Erie 3rd Place - Dajun Johnson of Wis.-Parkside 4th Place - Nick Novak of St. Cloud St. 5th Place - Cory Peterson of McKendree 6th Place - Jace Fisher of Newman 7th Place - Nolan Gessler of Tiffin 8th Place - Bailey Gimbor of Kutztown 1st Place Match David Hunsberger (Lander) 30-2, Jr. over Jack Haskin (Lake Erie) 26-4, Sr. (MD 10-2) 3rd Place Match Dajun Johnson (Wis.-Parkside) 33-7, RS So. over Nick Novak (St. Cloud St.) 25-5, Sr. (Dec 12-10) 5th Place Match Cory Peterson (McKendree) 26-8, . over Jace Fisher (Newman) 30-9, Sr. (Dec 7-2) 7th Place Match Nolan Gessler (Tiffin) 21-7, RS So. over Bailey Gimbor (Kutztown) 26-5, Jr. (Dec 7-5) 174 Guaranteed Places 1st Place - Cole Ritter of Maryville (MO) 2nd Place - Jacobi Deal of Neb.-Kearney 3rd Place - Drake Hayward of Minnesota St. 4th Place - Bryce Dagel of St. Cloud St. 5th Place - Matt Ortiz of McKendree 6th Place - Lawson Losee of Upper Iowa 7th Place - Joshua Kenny of Grand Valley St. 8th Place - Dalton Gimbor of Kutztown 1st Place Match Cole Ritter (Maryville (MO)) 32-7, RS Jr. over Jacobi Deal (Neb.-Kearney) 22-5, RS So. (Dec 5-1) 3rd Place Match Drake Hayward (Minnesota St.) 32-7, Jr. over Bryce Dagel (St. Cloud St.) 26-5, RS Jr. (Dec 4-3) 5th Place Match Matt Ortiz (McKendree) 27-11, RS Sr. over Lawson Losee (Upper Iowa) 27-13, So. (Dec 7-3) 7th Place Match Joshua Kenny (Grand Valley St.) 20-7, RS Jr. over Dalton Gimbor (Kutztown) 21-9, Jr. (Dec 7-3) 184 Guaranteed Places 1st Place - Ty McGeary of West Liberty 2nd Place - Keegan Gehlhausen of Chadron St. 3rd Place - Matt Weinberg of Kutztown 4th Place - Damon Ashworth of Central Mo. 5th Place - Cade Mueller of Augustana (SD) 6th Place - Garrett Wells of Central Okla. 7th Place - Kyle Homet of Glenville St. 8th Place - Jacari Deal of Neb.-Kearney 1st Place Match Ty McGeary (West Liberty) 33-1, RS Sr. over Keegan Gehlhausen (Chadron St.) 22-3, . (TF-1.5 6:40 (20-4)) 3rd Place Match Matt Weinberg (Kutztown) 32-1, RS Sr. over Damon Ashworth (Central Mo.) 27-9, RS Jr. (Fall 1:44) 5th Place Match Cade Mueller (Augustana (SD)) 22-7, RS Sr. over Garrett Wells (Central Okla.) 22-7, Jr. (Dec 5-2) 7th Place Match Kyle Homet (Glenville St.) 38-10, RS Sr. over Jacari Deal (Neb.-Kearney) 13-6, RS So. (TF-1.5 6:26 (17-2)) 197 Guaranteed Places 1st Place - Derek Blubaugh of UIndy 2nd Place - Tereus Henry of Fort Hays St. 3rd Place - Jackson Kinsella of Neb.-Kearney 4th Place - Max Ramberg of Augustana (SD) 5th Place - Nicholas Johnson of Glenville St. 6th Place - Wyatt Miller of Grand Valley St. 7th Place - Marvelous Rutledge of Lander 8th Place - Dominic Murphy of St. Cloud St. 1st Place Match Derek Blubaugh (UIndy) 21-3, RS Sr. over Tereus Henry (Fort Hays St.) 16-7, RS Sr. (Dec 5-1) 3rd Place Match Jackson Kinsella (Neb.-Kearney) 23-8, Sr. over Max Ramberg (Augustana (SD)) 34-7, Jr. (Dec 7-2) 5th Place Match Nicholas Johnson (Glenville St.) 31-7, Jr. over Wyatt Miller (Grand Valley St.) 11-10, RS Jr. (Dec 10-3) 7th Place Match Marvelous Rutledge (Lander) 28-13, Jr. over Dominic Murphy (St. Cloud St.) 26-3, . (SV-1 4-1) 285 Guaranteed Places 1st Place - Ryan Herman of Maryville (MO) 2nd Place - Isaiah Vance of Pitt-Johnstown 3rd Place - Dorian Crosby of Gannon 4th Place - Crew Howard of Neb.-Kearney 5th Place - Freddie Retter of Kutztown 6th Place - Jake Swirple of Minot St. 7th Place - Tyler Doyle of Colorado Mesa 8th Place - Carter Blough of Grand Valley St. 1st Place Match Ryan Herman (Maryville (MO)) 28-2, RS Sr. over Isaiah Vance (Pitt-Johnstown) 26-5, RS Jr. (TB-1 3-2) 3rd Place Match Dorian Crosby (Gannon) 27-4, RS Sr. over Crew Howard (Neb.-Kearney) 28-2, Sr. (Dec 4-2) 5th Place Match Freddie Retter (Kutztown) 13-3, RS So. over Jake Swirple (Minot St.) 26-9, RS Fr. (MD 12-1) 7th Place Match Tyler Doyle (Colorado Mesa) 26-7, Jr. over Carter Blough (Grand Valley St.) 28-7, RS So. (SV-1 4-1)

*tied with Wartburg. Fry wins 10-5 in the final match at 125, despite having prior bonus wins over his finals opponent

I remember this one when it happened. Tears to my eyes. Captured so many things so profoundly.

@Wrestleknownothing - a fellow Maroon, Sean Conway, made the finals as a 15 seed and ultimately came 2nd. Nicely done for the young man.

That was an all-timer

Iowa - in order of most likely to make a final: Caliendo, Ayala, Buchanan In order of most likely to win: Ayala, Buchanan, Caliendo

"The book of Revelation mentions the church in Philadelphia, which was written specifically about me competing in the 2025 NCAA championships in a city with the same name but 5000 miles away from the original one." -Mr. Fast Twitch

Sammy Brooks is a classic of the genre. I also love two post match interviews from 2021. Nick Lee's "chop wood, carry water" and AJ Ferrari's "665".

It's really hard to be intimidated by a bear that's restrained by the letter "C".

Calling ryan a POS for one outburst is beyond uncharitable. He runs a great program and has improved the lives of hundreds of kids. Did you all forget that these are D1 coaches who ALL lose their sh*t at one point or another? These are the most competitive, prominent people in the sport. T&T tell the world and everyone in it to f*ck itself every dual meet, but ryan has one outburst and you want to hang him from a lamppost?

I think you have to judge him by his entire body of work. Everyone gets caught up in the moment at times. Overall I think he does a really good job.

OK, this is probably be my last update of results on this thread. New Pablo content will be posted in a new thread when I get a chance. But here's what I have learned. Using the bigger dataset as described above, I now have updated rankings for matches before the conference tournaments weekend. These were calculated using an updated valuation model using the rematch data outcomes to assess the predictive ability of events. I won't post the full rankings, just some assessment data. As I mentioned earlier in the thread, my starting benchmark are conference tournament seeds. What we can do is to compare how well do seeds do at predicting outcomes vs Pablo rankings. I didn't give you enough time to help me out with the data, but I have gone through all the conference tournaments and calculated how often the matches went according to seeds. I didn't do anything real rigorous, but I just went through the brackets on Track, and if they didn't have the seeds there, I looked them up and had them for reference. I can't guarantee the results to be perfect, but they are probably pretty close. I have no historical context to assess this, so I will just provide the results. For the conference tournaments last weekend, the higher seeded wrestler (better seeded?) won 75.4% of the time (in almost 1300 matches). I didn't include matches that were injury defaults or medical forfeits, only if they wrestled out. I also didn't include matchups of non-seeded wrestlers. The one place where I know there could be some issues is with the handful of wrestlers who changed weight classes, wrestling in weight classes they've not been in all season. I'm pretty sure that they wouldn't get seeded in the tournament, or would be seeded low, but that doesn't reflect how good they are. But I also think Pablo is going to call their matches as losses, so I don't think it affects the comparison. OK, so the seeds, which are determined by the magic of the seeding people with their brilliant understanding of wrestling and their having watched matches and stuff got 75.4% correct. I am not able to look at just the seeded matches in Pablo, but I did look at all the matches in the conference tournaments (the difference is that Pablo considered matches between unseeded wrestlers where they exist). The number of correct matches was 77.0%. Therefore, this version of Pablo rankings did better than the seeds. Now, it's not by much. If you look at the matches by the seeded wrestlers, if you used Pablo rankings to compare them, you would get about 20 more matches predicted correctly than if you used seeds (out of almost 1300). But that's a difference. This is very promising. If nothing else, it shows that Pablo, who knows nothing about wrestling and only knows who wrestled, who won, and by what score, is at least just as smart at seeding wrestlers as the current approaches. It will be interesting to see what happens with nationals. That's the next test. There is another way to think about this. Of those matches in the conference tournaments, about 600 of them were rematches from earlier in the season, so I can use them in my match-pair dataset. I've done that, and while it has made some small tweaks to the model, the conclusions are the same as what I posted above. However, one thing I also did was to look at the new additions, the rematches that took place last weekend. What I found is that, if the two wrestlers had met up previously in the season and then met up again in the tournament, the wrestler who won in the regular season won .... 76.6% of the time in the tournament. In one respect, that's satisfying because it says Pablo is basically reflecting the case of, well, who won before? Let's expect them to win again. However, I'm not as happy, because I'd like to hope that by using scores/outcomes, I can learn more about the wrestlers than just who won. There are some things I need to do to improve the fitting algorithm and maybe that will improve things a bit. I'll keep working on it in the background, but the good news, we are at a good starting place. The TL;DR Summary: Pablo would have seeded the conference tournaments better than they were.

Lots of data here, but I will just note that like this methodology. I've spent a lot of time analyzing outcomes-by-seeds in other places (specifically basketball) and understand your basis. In the future it could be possible to run this with Pablo rankings, and I can easily do that for the winner's bracket but when it gets to the consolation side, it gets really complicated. I know guys that have just done it via a monte carlo simulation to get a statistical result. If it is just the championship side, I can do it analytically.

I have yet to see an NCAA performance from Peterson to convince me that this will happen.

Lehigh's Rob Rohn was trailing 14-2 late in the third period and mixered OK's Josh Lambrecht for the fall in 2002. 4 pins in a row in the NCAA championships.

Let's talk about Caden Henschel not making it to Nationals this year. He was the top ranked kid at his weight almost all season long, and his coach has said that "[Henschel] is a great kid who does everything right." None of that means he belongs at Nationals this season, but it is a bummer to see his career end this way. I, for one, have enjoyed watching him compete, and I enjoy some of his content. He is a great for the sport, and it would have been great to see him make a run at a title. That and I am a fan of Nick Becker and what he does at UW-Parkside.

Two-time finalist and 2023 National Champ from Glenville State, Gavin Quiocho, wasn't in the line-up this past weekend. His coach, former WVU NQ Dylan Cottrell, claimed that he struggled to make 133 AND that he lost wrestle-offs to the 141 who took sixth at Super Region III. UW-Parkside took it on the chin from 133 to 157. Then again, that SR might be the toughest in D2, if not the second toughest. Coach Becker has to be feeling the results this morning. New Jersey's brand new program, Felician, qualified two to the tournament. Congrats! American International had their final qualifier this year at 157. Sad to see the program fold. University of Nebraska-Kearney had a GREAT second half of the season and look mighty strong heading into Nationals. Can three-time finalist and 2024 National Champ at 197, Derek Blubaugh from University of Indianapolis, make a fourth finals? First, it was Abney from Central Oklahoma who had his number, and now it may be Logan Kvien of McKendree. Either way, Blubaugh is a monster and a great kid to boot. Congratulations to the 50 teams that qualified at least one guy to the tournament in two weekends! With six-plus teams coming to D2 in the next few seasons, the NCAA might want to look at the structure of the Super Regions. You now have three really strong ones and three SRs which aren't as competitive. The coaches want the BEST kids at the tournament, just like in D1, and not just regional representation.