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Saw this tongue twister recently: “He knew he was in trouble. When you get in trouble, when you’re in trouble is when you don’t know you’re in trouble, and so when you get in trouble and if you know you’re in trouble then you always end up on top”

One poster listed him. Let's all calm down. No one else thinks he's a dark horse edit... ok I saw two posters mention him. Now I'm worried of an impending apocalypse. @Hammerlock3 do your thing. Argue these two posters into oblivion. It's our only chance for survival

how exactly do you think over/under works?

I put together a table of the probability of placement by seed using placement data from 2010 - 2023. After getting the raw numbers, I fitted in two directions to come up with these approximations. It could probably benefit from a couple more iterations of fits, but I grew tired, and this is good enough for government work. How to read: The left column is the seed The second through twelfth columns are the exact placement. 9 represents the blood round losers, 9-12. 13 represents the prior round losers, 13-16, etc. The percentages represent the probability of the exact placement. For example, a #2 seed has a 23% of winning and a 32.3% of finishing second. The probabilities are additive left to right, but not top to bottom. For example, if you want to know the probability that a #1 seed makes the final, simply sum the second and third columns (52.3% + 22.5% + 74.8%). None of this is all that precise even though I fake precision by giving you tenths. But, again, good enough for government work.

Remember a few pages back in this thread when i said 'they removed all trumps policies on day 1' and the libtards ( @VakAttack ) argued on and on despite me dropping link after link? can't wait to see the spin on this. your border czar in his own words

wait ... what are you talking about?

Webster’s dictionary now defines these types of quotes as a kamala.

You just gave me an idea for a new contest. Call it The Dark Horse Race. Or the Dark Horse Derby? Whatever. We have time to workshop that. Rules: After the seeds come out, pick four wrestlers seeded 17 or below to AA. Points awarded for the difference between their seed and their finish. (I will work out something for finishes in a range). Bonus points of some sort for an actual AA.

Vera is wrestling 97. Woods is at 87.

It’s probably difficult for some of us flawed folks to understand how impossible it is for the perfect people to participate in, or enable, such an imperfect system.

Rocco Welsh if starocci is out

Hey guys, we'll use this as our official thread. Our league is capped at 15 participants, and last year's participants will have first dibs. CONFIRMED RETURNING @Idaho @MPhillips @flyingcement ...me. I'm in. @nhs67 @jajensen09 @MizzouFan01 @lu_alum WAITING ON RESPONSE @goheels1812 @Jerry Callo @JVStateChamp @GreatWhiteNorth @idc2 @Antitroll2828 @Perry The plan is to try to have a Zoom call this year to make the draft move faster. Looking forward to it, boys!

https://www.npr.org/2024/02/27/1232055752/nasa-moon-orion-artemis-astronaut-victor-glover

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/02/26/googles-gemini-headaches-spur-90-billion-selloff/amp/

Fido beware! After farting cows are eliminated the Climateers are coming after you next. Studies like the often-cited 2017 paper titled “Environmental impacts of food consumption by dogs and cats” by UCLA’s Geography Professor Gregory S. Okin have helped shape the story that our four-legged friends are a burden to the earth’s future. Why? In addition to “rising infectious diseases from pathogens caused by climate change,” the globalist cabal has declared that the pet and pet food industries contribute to “increasing heatwaves and pathogens.” “An average-sized cat can produce 310 kilograms (CO2e) annually. An average-sized dog generates 770 kg of CO2e, and an even bigger dog can emit upwards of 2,500 kilograms of CO2e, which is twice as much as the emissions deriving from an average family car per year.” If only our cats and dogs would simply start driving EVs to save the environment everything would be fine. Selfish racist homo-trans-islamo-xeno - phobic sexist pets keeping on eating.

The one aspect of Greco that most needs change is how they call the passivity. Cohlton Schultz was dominating the ties, had pushed his opponent outside the circle multiple times, and he's put down. But he still wins!

Schultz with a win!! 130 is qualified.

Vera with a win!! 97 is qualified.

Vera starts off getting a caution and goes on top. Hits 2 guts and a lift and exposure for 4. Venezuela challenges. Challenge won and it's only 2 for the exposure. Vera up 7-0. Period ends. Venezuela gets caution and their turn on top. Tries a lift and gets defended by Vera. Nothing else going on and Vera just hangs out and wins 7-1.

Woods won!!!! 87 is qualified!!

USA Greco Team be USA Greco'n Despite our domestic hurdles I really thought we had an advantage over Pan-Am countries not named Cuba. False

Wow Sancho gets pinned while trying a gut. Challenges call, loses challenge. Chile makes the Olympics.

Gets run over by Kevin Jackson's Buick...

Team that can beat penn state if they all get blessed by god the night before NCAA's and everything that could go wrong for psu does NC state Camacho stays in form wins 125 Orine draws in opposite side of fix and vito is not healthy/is cutting for trials already makes finals ryan jack reaches back on beau in the quarters like he did eierman but gets the fall call and then proceeds to beat whoever the 4 seed is makes the finals but loses because lightning cannot possibly strike 3 times Jackson arrington gets the first takedown on ridge then chooses neutral and proceeds to circle but gets 2 stall calls on ridge for getting himself pushed out. Goes on to stun henson in the finals. Ed scott throws people and gets a lot of pins AA's I got nothing at 165 Nc state says f it and pulls singletons red shirt for confrences and he shows why he beat gabe arnold in 2 matches at u20's takes out a hobbled carter in the semis and avenges his ACC finals loss to mehki (in this hypothetical he loses to mehki at acc's) Fishback steals all of tj stewarts speed like its space jam and AA's Trent beats Aaron in the finals (the most realistic prediction on here imo) and celebrates by punching himself with one hand and holding a hoagie with the other trephan AA's

I am open to ideas. Another thought would to expand it to ten picks, one per weight.

which reminds me... Caleb Smith now has a 2.9% chance of making the final.

What kid wouldn't have loved that contraption. Danger, fun, you have it all. mspart

It was amazing. Jaggers boosted his wrestling so much at big tournaments. It was always so awesome to watch.

Yogi Berra has some new competition.

My lowest ranked (intermat rankings) guys at each weight with a decent shot at making the finals: 125- #19 Richie Figueroa 133- #3 Daton Fix 141- #14 Cole Matthews 149- #6 Casey Swiderski 157- #15 Brayton Lee 165- #5 Mitchell Mesenbrink 174- #11 Rocco Welsh 184- #8 Bennett Berge 197- #11 Zach Glazier HWT- #6 Lucas Davison

Drive by thread starter.

Huh? I just listened to the actual source speak in a video. The same video posted for you to. I formed my understanding from there and held off 'trust the news' until seeing it. This doesn't change the violence narrative concern overall but this is not the story to hang one's hat on.

But you quoted a stat to make the case for why it is exciting.

Someone is paying more attention to greco than I am

Kyle Conel

It's not that I don't want the US to qualify at 65, but if Air Gomez takes flight then the mental gymnastics surrounding "well we really already qualified 2 Americans anyways" is going to be in full expat effect. It will be even more fun if Gomez beats Lee then loses to McNeil. I'm here for the chaos.

But how is he a dark horse? How is any undefeated wrestler with 6 top 10 wins a dark horse?

I created the raw data matrix first. By definition every row/seed sums to 100%. And there are patterns for each seed, but they can be a bit noisy. We are also not dealing with a huge amount of data here. Seeding to 33 is only 4 years old, for example, so seeds below 16 are sparse. So I used a polynomial regression with five degrees to fit a line through the data. I chose polynomial because it is a classification problem and there are essentially five classes to fit wrestlers into (AA, 9-12, 13-16, 17-24, 25-33). Using the resulting equation leads to a horizontal sum that is never 100%, so I had to refactor to force a 100% sum constraint. Then I did the polynomial fit vertically as there are distinct patterns there too, with some noise. There is no sum constraint vertically, but it messes with the horizontal sums. So, then I re-ran the horizontal fit with the 100% sum constraint. You can rinse and repeat the process as many times as you like to make small tweaks and smooth out the resulting lines, but there is not a lot of incremental improvement. At the end of the day, you are taking a data set that is limited (but not too limited) and using it to estimate what will happen as more years pass and more data is collected to fill in the gaps. That is all built on an assumption that the seeds are generally accurate (i.e. have a stable average result) with a mathematical distribution around the average. I think this is true, but homers tend to think their team is special and different and this is surely the year.

Go woke go broke.

Nope...always have to find something to be a victim of...and blame others for their hard work...call them names and say they have no empathy. It has always amazed me how people like that get anywhere in life. They have to be completely miserable people always looking for the boogeyman in everything.

Count me in. Been training all year for a better performance than last.

Me, my senior year in HS. Lost 3-2 in finals and then had to wrestle one more match for true 2nd. That was in Missouri over 50 years ago. They quit wrestling for true 2nd a couple of years after I graduated.

kid's on fire

Meyer Shapiro Sergio Lemley Austin Gomez Zach Glazier Nick Feldman

Brackets are out. Zane - CRC/GUA in quarters then CRUZ or ECU in semis. Great draw. Lee - Gomez then McNeil or Kramer. Quarters is the big match here. Should still qualify though. Dom - CHI then CUB/CAN. CAN is a tough match (she has beaten Dom and Winchester but lost to Augello). Miracle - CUB then VEN. VEN is the tough one. Elor - Cub then COL. Great Draw. Ildar - CUB then DOM. Cuba is the big one. Win that and qualify. Sancho - ARG/PUR then CHO. Great draw. Bey - ARG then COL. Toughest draw he could get probably. Woods - HON then CUB. Toughest draw possible. Vera - PAN then VEN. Should qualify. Schultz - Round Robin with BRA and CAN. Better draw than CHI. BRA still a tough beat.

I still can’t get over how the educated “smart” people need the uneducated “stupid” people to bail them out. or maybe it’s the educated “smarter people that figured it out” that should bail them out huh? Quit whining and figure it out. You’re supposed to be smart

I'll take 125 lbs - all of them and none of them at the same time.

Here's a little preview of the Qualifiers (I'm using the entry list with the seeds as a basis for this). *Reminder - A wrestler only needs to make the finals to qualify. Thus the only opponents that matter are those that are seeded on the same side or get drawn in the same side* Men Free 57KG - Zane Richards - Seeded #2 11 man bracket meaning Zane will need to win a quarter and semi Semi #3 seed - Guesseppe Ricardo REA VILLARROEL of Ecuador (Just won bronze at Pan-Ams losing to VEN in semis by tech) Random draws - RBY of Mexico and Cruz of Puerto Rico. Zane has beat Cruz multiple times and they haven't been close. RBY is the wildcard here. If he gets drawn on the opposite side then I don't think Zane has a problem with anyone else. Results from Pan-Am Champs BRA - 5th. Lost to Lee and COL CAN - DNC CRC - Lost to ECU GUA - 5th. Lost to VEN and ECU MEX - DNC PER - Lost to COL PUR - DNC 65KG - Nick Lee - Seeded #1 12 man bracket meaning Lee will need to win a quarter and semi Semi #4 seed - Austin Klee GOMEZ of Mexico (The only real landmine in the draw) Random draws - Lachlan McNeil is the only other notable wrestler to be drawn in. Results from Pan-Am Champs BAH - 3rd. Lost to ARG. Beat PER and DOM. BRA - No entry CAN - DNC CHI - Lost to COL COL - Lost to CAN DOM - 5th. Lost to ARG and DOM. ECU - 3rd. Teched by Lee. PER - Lost to BAH Women 53KG - Dom Parrish - Seeded #1 11 woman bracket meaning Dom will need to win a quarter and semi Semi #4 seed - Antonia Alejandra VALDES ARRIAGADA of CHI (teched by CUBA at pan-ams) Random draws - Cuba seems to be the only one. Shouldn't be an issue as Gomez beat her this past weekend by tech. DOM beat Canada by fall and had a close match with VEN the 3rd seed. Results from Pan-Am Champs BRA - Lost to CUB COL - Lost to CAN CUB - 5th. Lost to ECU and USA (Gomez by tech). DOM - 3rd. Lost to VEN. Beat CAN. MEX - DNC PAN - Lost to DOM PER - Lost to USA 62KG - Kayla Miracle - Seeded #1 9 woman bracket meaning Kayla will need to win a quarter and semi Semi #4 seed - Astrid Paola MONTERO CHIRINOS of VEN (Miracle beat by fall in semis but was down 5-0) Random draws - Shouldn't really have any issue with anyone in the draw. Cuba has a closish match with Brazil in the quarters losing 5-0. The big match is the semi with VEN. Results from Pan-Am Champs COL - DNC CUB - Lost to BRA JAM - Lost to COL MEX - 5th. Lost to CAN and BRA PUR - Lost to CUB 68KG - Amit Elor - Not Seeded 9 woman bracket meaning Elor will need to win a quarter and semi and potentially a prelim. Random Draw - Without a seed there is no telling where Elor will be. CAN is the biggest obstacle here as a former world champ and a bronze this past year. Neither side looks more difficult than the other. Results from Pan-Am Champs BRA - DNC CAN - DNC (Morais - World Champ at 59 in 2019 and 3rd at 68 in 2022) CHI - No entry COL (#1 seed) - 5th. Lost to CAN and USA (Glaude 3-3) CUB (#4 seed) - Lost to MEX ECU (#3 seed) - 3rd. Lost to VEN. Beat MEX. MEX - 5th. Lost to VEN and ECU. Beat CUB. VEN (#2 seed) - 2nd. Beat ECU and MEX. INJ in finals. Greco 60KG - Ildar Hafizov - Seeded #1 10 man bracket meaning Ildar will need to win a quarter and semi Semi #4 seed - Dicther Hans TORO CASTANEDA of COL. (Miranda teched at pan-ams but has beat Hafizov previously) Random draws - DOM looks to be the toughest test if he lands on the same side. Results from Pan-Am Champs BRA - Lost to CHI CAN - Lost to DOM CHI - 5th. Lost to VEN and DOM. Beat BRA. DOM - 3rd. Lost to VEN. Beat CAN and CHI. ECU - Lost to MEX. MEX - DNC 67KG - Alejandro Sancho - Seeded #1 12 man bracket meaning Sancho will need to win a quarter and semi Semi #4 seed - Almanza Truyol NESTOR EVIAN of CHI (Sancho beat in close 3-1 match at pan-ams) Random draws - Sancho seems to always have a one technique match. He can go out and win it or lose first round it feels like. Results from Pan-Am Champs ARG - Lost to COL. Beat MEX. BRA - No entry CAN - 5th. Lost to ECU and COL. Beat GUA. DOM - 5th. Lost to Sancho (4-3) and CHI. Beat PUR. GUA - DNC MEX - DNC PER - Lost to CHI. PUR - DNC. 77KG - Kamal Bey - Seeded #2 12 man bracket meaning Bey will need to win a quarter and semi Semi #3 seed - Rivas Espinoza WUILEIXIS DE JESUS of VEN (Bey teched at pan-ams) Random draws - ARG has Arsen Julfalakyan entered who has a world and olympic title and 3 other medals to his name. Most recently he won a bronze in 2019 at the Euros. Obviously has the highest credentials of the rest of the group combined. But he is 36 now and hasn't had a world result in 10 years. COL is the other potential obstacle in the bracket as he beat Bey just this past week. Bey has beaten him before, as has RaVaughn and PSmith, as recently as last year. Results from Pan-Am Champs ARG - No entry CAN - Lost to GUA. CHI - 5th. Lost to BRA and CUB. COL - 1st. Beat PAN & VEN, Bey (6-6), and BRA. GUA - Lost to Bey by tech. Beat CAN. MEX - DNC PAN - Lost to COL and VEN. PUR - Lost to CUB. Beat MEX. 87KG - Spencer Woods - Not Seeded 8 man bracket meaning Woods will need to win a quarter and semi Random draws - Hope that Spencer gets drawn into the bottom half and the top has CUB, who has dominated the Pan-Ams the past few years, and COL, the guy that beat him this past weekend. Either way. Don't expect this to be qualified. Results from Pan-Am Champs BRA (#3 seed) - Lost to HON. CHI - 5th. Lost to CUB and COL. Beat MEX. COL (#4 seed) - 3rd. Lost to CUB. Beat Woods and CHI. CUB (#1 seed) - 1st. Beat CHI, COL, and VEN. HON - 3rd. Lost to VEN. Beat BRA & ARG. MEX - Lost to CHI VEN (#2 seed) - 2nd. Lost to CUB. Beat ARG & HON. 97KG - Alan Vera - Seeded #2 8 man bracket meaning Vera will need to win a quarter and semi Semi #3 seed - Luillys Jose PEREZ MORA of VEN (Vera beat 5-3 at pan-ams) Random draws - This one feels like it's a pretty easy rode to the semis. But Vera has dropped some strange matches. He really should make the finals though. Results from Pan-Am Champs ARG - 5th. Lost to HON and DOM. BRA - Lost to VEN. DOM - 3rd. Lost to HON. Beat ARG and BRA. MEX - 5th. Lost to Vera and VEN. PAN - Lost to VEN. 130KG - Cohlton Schultz - Seeded #1 6 man bracket meaning Cohlton will need to win a semi Semi #4 seed - Acosta Fernandez YASMANI of CHI Random draws - None to worry about as neither are beating Acosta. Acosta (the former cuban) has beaten Coon a few times rather easily. I'm not sure is Cohlton was wrestled him previously but I would have Acosta as the favorite. Results from Pan-Am Champs CAN - Lost to Schultz (6-0) and VEN. Beat MEX. MEX - DNC BOTTOM LINE - The men free should qualify both. The women should qualify all 3 but Miracle is iffy. Greco should get 1 in Ildar, Vera, Sancho, and Bey are 50/50. Schultz will need and upset. Woods will need his lucky rabbits foot. I predict all the freestyle weights get qualified and 3 greco (60, 67, 77).