Iowa at PSU Predictions - Fourth Annual

[Pish]

LL dec Cruz 9-3 PSU 3-0
Ayala dec BD 4-2 Tie 3-3
BB major Block 10-2 PSU 7-3
SVN dec Parco 7-2 PSU 10-3
Teemer dec TK 4-2 PSU 10-6
MM major Caliendo 16-5 PSU 14-6
LH major Kennedy 10-2 PSU 18-6
CS major Arnold 8-0 PSU 22-6
JB dec Buchanan 7-6 PSU 25-6
GK pin Kueter PSU 31-6

[CHROMEBIRD]

On 1/26/2025 at 1:26 PM, CHROMEBIRD said:

125 Lilledahl maj Cruz - Lil Luke comes off a loss with guns blazing in front of a home crowd. 4-0 PSU 

133  Ayala maj Davis - Home cookin' won't save Davis, gets sloppy and Ayala turns him for backs. 4-4

141  Bartlett dec Rhodes -  Rhodes will be way overmatched, but I think Bartlett will lowkey wrestle an even-keeled controlled match. 7-4

149  SVN dec Parco - Parco wrestles tight and doesn't take a shot, SVN wins the scrambles. 10-4

157  Teemer dec Kasak - Teemer's physicality will be a problem for Kasak and the refs will force action from Jacori since this won't be at CHA. Gas tank will be tested. 10-7

165 Mesenbrink maj Caliendo - I'd like to see Caliendo narrow the gap, but how do you even pull together a match strategy against Mes? MM wins on pace and blows it open in the third period. 14-7

174 Haines dec Kennedy - Rooting for PK, but Haines' style will give him problems. 17-7

184 Starocci dec Arnold - Gabe's explosiveness will be a non-factor and I expect more of an old school Kemerer-Starocci style grinder. 20-7

197 - Barr dec Buchanan - Barr wins this one by a takedown at BJC but Buchanan wins at Big Tens. 23-7

286 - Kerk dec Keuter - Expecting a snoozer, not that it will matter at this point. 26-7 PSU final

TB: 184

Total TDs = 22*

 

* but if we're going with closest to the total without going over, then I'll change my answer to 1

[ionel]

Whats the O/U on Terry jumping out onto the mat?  At 6.5 any takes on the under?

[CHROMEBIRD]

4 minutes ago, ionel said:

Whats the O/U on Terry jumping out onto the mat?  At 6.5 any takes on the under?

No bet! 

[Gene Mills Fan]

5 minutes ago, ionel said:

Whats the O/U on Terry jumping out onto the mat?  At 6.5 any takes on the under?

if that's for one weight class then... no never mind

[nhs67]

Feels right...

[PSUDad97]

I do think people are not realizing how stacked this Iowa squad is because of the talk about PSU being potentially the best team of all-time.  I also don't think this meet will be as one-sided as most people think.  I could see Iowa winning 4 matches, and the overall score not being what Penn State fans are now accustomed to.

#GoState

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 minutes ago, PSUDad97 said:

I do think people are not realizing how stacked this Iowa squad is because of the talk about PSU being potentially the best team of all-time.  I also don't think this meet will be as one-sided as most people think.  I could see Iowa winning 4 matches, and the overall score not being what Penn State fans are now accustomed to.

#GoState

But what could you see each individual match ending at?

[bnwtwg]

[ionel]

4 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

You misspelled it again.  I think you meant:  Me$$en Brink$  

[Wrestleknownothing]

Iowa favored at three weights so far.

• Ayala is preferred by 84% of voters.
• Teemer is the favorite of the thinnest majority at 58%
• Buchanan has a healthy edge at 77%

On the Penn State side there are four unanimous choices so far.

• Maybe the most surprising is Bartlett with his keep it close to the end style?
• Mesenbrink and Haines are the least surprising prohibitive favorites.
• Only mildly surprising is Kerkvliet coming off a rip roaring, action packed 2-0 victory. Where for art thou, Iowa faithful?
• Never mind, I see you, Iowa faithful. One half of the greatest sandwich ever invented is a lone wolf at 184 choosing Arnold to come away with the head.

 

[PortaJohn]

6 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Maybe the most surprising is Bartlett with his keep it close to the end style?

I'd say less of a vote of confidence for Bartlett and more of a Iowa is really bad at that weight

[Dogbone]

125 - PSU dec. Iowa  3-0

133 - Iowa dec. PSU 3-3

141 - PSU md Iowa 7-3

149 - Iowa dec. PSU 7-6

157 - PSU dec.Iowa 10-6

165 - PSU md Iowa 14-6

174 PSU md Iowa 18-6

184 PSU md Iowa 22-6

197 Iowa dec. PSU 22-9

285 PSU dec. Iowa 25-9 PSU wins dual

[1032004]

 

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

@VakAttack, @Le duke, @Perry, @RandolphTJones, @BerniePragle, @fishbane, @D3UC157, @Nittanychris, @Nailbender, @FearTheTurtle, @Holtfan, @PortaJohn, @TheDFP, @Eagle26, @BIGTENFANBOY, @crzyctldy

All past participants. Where you guys at?

[1032004]

16 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

@VakAttack, @Le duke, @Perry, @RandolphTJones, @BerniePragle, @fishbane, @D3UC157, @Nittanychris, @Nailbender, @FearTheTurtle, @Holtfan, @PortaJohn, @TheDFP, @Eagle26, @BIGTENFANBOY, @crzyctldy

All past participants. Where you guys at?

You sure we want @BIGTENFANBOY back?

[CHROMEBIRD]

48 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

• Mesenbrink and Haines are the least surprising prohibitive favorites.

Feels like a majority of folks here expect MM to at least major Caliendo. What do y'all think about Cal's chances if he bumped up and wrestled Haines?

Leave Teemer at 157 and slot in Estrada at 165 (does he still have a match to burn?). I mean, it likely won't put a dent in the dual score but I think Caliendo's odds are a little better against Haines. Much better than Kennedy's, anyway. Would be a fun match either way.

[1032004]

Just now, CHROMEBIRD said:

Feels like a majority of folks here expect MM to at least major Caliendo. What do y'all think about Cal's chances if he bumped up and wrestled Haines?

Leave Teemer at 157 and slot in Estrada at 165 (does he still have a match to burn?). I mean, it likely won't put a dent in the dual score but I think Caliendo's odds are a little better against Haines. Much better than Kennedy's, anyway. Would be a fun match either way.

That’d be interesting but doubt it happens and I wouldn’t give Caliendo much chance up a weight. I feel pretty strongly that Caliendo won’t get teched by Mesenbrink, so he probably saves at least a point vs Estrada (I picked him to lose by Dec but don’t feel confident about that).

You bring up a good point though, would Brands have a better shot against Haines than Kennedy too?   Is he injured?

[PortaJohn]

2 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

Feels like a majority of folks here expect MM to at least major Caliendo. What do y'all think about Cal's chances if he bumped up and wrestled Haines?

I'd say similar to Haines match with Teemer in the NCAA finals last year.  He'd control the center of the mat. Shut him down defensively.  Get a clean takedown or two that he needed.

[Wrestleknownothing]

13 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

Feels like a majority of folks here expect MM to at least major Caliendo. What do y'all think about Cal's chances if he bumped up and wrestled Haines?

Leave Teemer at 157 and slot in Estrada at 165 (does he still have a match to burn?). I mean, it likely won't put a dent in the dual score but I think Caliendo's odds are a little better against Haines. Much better than Kennedy's, anyway. Would be a fun match either way.

Average expected team points for Mesenbrink is only 3.72. The highest total, but not too extreme.

Edited Tuesday at 09:21 PM by Wrestleknownothing

[Truzzcat]

49 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

Feels like a majority of folks here expect MM to at least major Caliendo. What do y'all think about Cal's chances if he bumped up and wrestled Haines?

Leave Teemer at 157 and slot in Estrada at 165 (does he still have a match to burn?). I mean, it likely won't put a dent in the dual score but I think Caliendo's odds are a little better against Haines. Much better than Kennedy's, anyway. Would be a fun match either way.

Feel like you keep the same result at 174 and give up 5 for sure then at 165. 

[Mr. PeanutButter]

On 1/27/2025 at 10:31 AM, Wrestleknownothing said:

18-12. Have two calzones.

22 takedowns btw

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

You sure we want @BIGTENFANBOY back?

I don't remember him. Refresh my memory. 

I did leave one out.

[fishbane]

1 hour ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

Feels like a majority of folks here expect MM to at least major Caliendo. What do y'all think about Cal's chances if he bumped up and wrestled Haines?

Leave Teemer at 157 and slot in Estrada at 165 (does he still have a match to burn?). I mean, it likely won't put a dent in the dual score but I think Caliendo's odds are a little better against Haines. Much better than Kennedy's, anyway. Would be a fun match either way.

Pretty sure Estrada doesn't have any dates left so he would need to burn his shirt to do this.  This was discussed on FRL ahead of the Ohio State match and they said he was out of dates and predicted we'd see Teemer, which turned out to be the case.

[Le duke]

Estrada at 165 gives up 5 or 6, Caliendo gives up 3 up at 174. Net loss of 8-9. Whereas the Caliendo (4) and Kennedy (3) combo gives up 7, with a small chance of 8. 

Caliendo is a poor man's Mesenbrink; nothing that Haines doesn't see every day, and probably not much better at any single thing than Mesenbrink. Maybe slightly better top game than MM, but Haines rolls with that mean old man Cunningham and Carter Starocci every day. So, no offense to Caliendo, but he's not keeping Haines on the mat.

There's also a small chance that Caliendo gets bow and arrowed by Haines. That would be on social media forever.

 

Edited yesterday at 12:46 AM by Le duke