Hot take: I don’t think Steveson wins NCAA’s

[jackwebster]

55 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Hendrickson's technique is better than Steveson's overall toolbox.

I gather that you disagree with @hammerlock3 's "goon" assessment. Could you expand on this? I always thought that Steveson was the slickest ever, esp with reshots.

[Gantry]

I think the highest odds of Steveson not winning NCAAs (I'll go 5%) is that he just decides not to go to Big Tens and/or Philly.  I can totally see a "j/k, just doing duals" out of him, though again 5%

[bnwtwg]

22 minutes ago, jackwebster said:

I gather that you disagree with @hammerlock3 's "goon" assessment. Could you expand on this? I always thought that Steveson was the slickest ever, esp with reshots.

I have no idea what he meant by "goon" that was an asinine statement. Hendrickson has great technique for any weight class, but he is not as fast as Steveson or strong as Kerk and cannot overcome what they bring to the table. It's not a slight against him and I think if he chooses, he would be an amazing technical coach one day. He will hopefully always be remembered in the annual "best to never win an NCAA title" thread because he is the real deal who happened to be born at the same time as some other world-level buzzsaws.

Steveson is quick as a cat and has the cleanest go-behind in a long time. He's also strong as an ox with amazing balance. Very great technique paired with elite match intelligence and the above is what separates him into the best in the world. 

[Fadzaev2]

16 hours ago, BruceyB said:

All due respect, Feldman teched Harley Andrews faster than Gable did.. So maybe today wasn't the best overall indicator of whether he's better than ever or not.

I think Gable was just wrestling on Cruise Control last night.  Another day at the office, a walk in the park.

[ionel]

13 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Hendrickson has great technique for any weight class, but ... 

Steveson is quick as a cat and ...

But what if Wyatt can catch the Gable at the peak of his backflip all that Airforce training comes thru and ...  

[D3 for LU]

5 minutes ago, ionel said:

But what if Wyatt can catch the Gable at the peak of his backflip all that Airforce training comes thru and ...  

 Well then...

... there you have it.

D3

[headshuck]

But what if Wyatt can catch the Gable at the peak of his backflip all that Airforce training comes thru and ...  

[D3 for LU]

Well, ionel... better a potato than NO potato! 

That 1st gif... that poor girl scorpioned that flip (OUCH!)

As for the last one... that guy was too lame (just gave up and lay there like a slug... it was his only defense.)

D3

[ionel]

6 minutes ago, D3 for LU said:

Well, ionel... better a potato than NO potato! 

potahto!

[D3 for LU]

3 minutes ago, ionel said:

potahto!

Ah... be lucky I didn't spell it like Dan Quayle! 

D3

Edited Sunday at 08:54 PM by D3 for LU

[ionel]

1 minute ago, D3 for LU said:

Ah... be lucky I didn't spell it like Dan Quayle! 

D3

Bob gave us no gymnastics reaction, that scoundrel , so the seemed the closest option.  

[D3 for LU]

1 minute ago, ionel said:

Bob gave us no gymnastics reaction, that scoundrel , so the seemed the closest option.  

Ehhhhhhhh... we're good with that! 

D3

[Mr. PeanutButter]

2 hours ago, D3 for LU said:

 Well then...

... there you have it.

D3

I audibly gasped in pain multiple times 

Edited Sunday at 09:15 PM by Mr. PeanutButter

[buckshot]

If PSU's staff could coach up Cassar enough to beat him I have to think Kerk (who is better than Cassar) could at least make it interesting. And as i said before, if Kerk gets on top in the 3rd he might be able to put a ride on him.

[1032004]

3 hours ago, PortaJohn said:

@1032004 had to check the title twice to make sure this wasn't a throwaway gothca Stevenson thread...Would be a monumental upset but have to offer more than just "Spencer Lee Vibes".  At least with Spencer we knew he was battling through an injury and he had some close calls that season with big moves.  We had concrete evidence that year showing it was plausible.  

What other close calls did he have that season other than the first Ramos match?  I actually don’t think he looked particularly vulnerable early in the year, but yeah I’m more just feeling similar vibes in terms of everyone seemed to assume him winning was a foregone conclusion when nothing is guaranteed.

 

3 hours ago, PortaJohn said:

Let's just hope @1032004 offers a more in-depth breakdown on how this happens.  If he nails it he'll be a legend.  Even if it gets close to an upset then much respect.   Can't wrap my head around a plausible scenario at this point

As far as how it happens, I’m thinking he might be able to be “out-quicked” because of the extra weight he’s carrying this season.  I’d also give Hendrickson a better chance of turning him than Kerk.  Which if Hendrickson was the one to heat him it could potentially be the start of the legend of Taylor’s coaching career…

 

3 hours ago, Hammerlock3 said:

The best thing I can think of is that it would fit a possible narrative. "Complacent super talent reluctantly returns to college wrestling for a paycheck". Not saying I think thats the truthiest truth but if he turned in a lackluster performance and took a loss it would fit said narrative.

Yeah kinda.   For one he took about 2 years off from competing so he may not be as sharp as he was when doing it nonstop for basically his whole life.  He also was likely more motivated by money than anything to come back.  And so far it hasn’t seemed to work out for guys like those that went to Iowa for one more run at least in terms of individual titles are concerned.

[lu1979]

4 hours ago, peanut said:

I have zero insight into the likelihood of Steveson being beaten this year -- but it's not often that a former Olympic champ is competing in NCAA wrestling. Aside from John Smith, I'm not sure who else there's been.

Snyder and Uetake

[CHROMEBIRD]

4 hours ago, Hammerlock3 said:

The best thing I can think of is that it would fit a possible narrative. "Complacent super talent reluctantly returns to college wrestling for a paycheck". Not saying I think thats the truthiest truth but if he turned in a lackluster performance and took a loss it would fit said narrative.

 

51 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Yeah kinda.   For one he took about 2 years off from competing so he may not be as sharp as he was when doing it nonstop for basically his whole life.  He also was likely more motivated by money than anything to come back.  And so far it hasn’t seemed to work out for guys like those that went to Iowa for one more run at least in terms of individual titles are concerned.

I could see it happening. Look at senior year RBY. We all thought he would be unstoppable coming into the season but he wrestled selectively, didn't seem to take the season seriously, then got worked by Vito at NCAAs. I'm not convinced that college wrestling is a challenge or even interesting for Steveson. If he's just going through the motions and his heart isn't totally into it, anything could happen.

[Hammerlock3]

4 hours ago, PortaJohn said:

Even though it seems to me that wrestling is Gable's back up plan to his other back up plan he's still uber competitive.  Maybe a violent flu with a 103 fever Gable gets taken down?

I agree. i don't see any signs of Gable being unprepared. 

Edited Sunday at 10:30 PM by Hammerlock3

[Caveira]

Pretty cool of Steveson…. Looks like he showed up at a kids tourney today and was taking pics with the kids. 

[boconnell]

On 1/11/2025 at 7:04 PM, Hammerlock3 said:

you're wrong, people who only make predictions they would bet their lives on are boring.

Those people aren't making predictions.  They are sharing lightly held hopes disguised as predictions.

[boconnell]

6 hours ago, buckshot said:

If PSU's staff could coach up Cassar enough to beat him I have to think Kerk (who is better than Cassar) could at least make it interesting. And as i said before, if Kerk gets on top in the 3rd he might be able to put a ride on him.

I agree.  If Kerk had PSU's staff for their last matchup he would have won.

[BruceyB]

16 minutes ago, boconnell said:

I agree.  If Kerk had PSU's staff for their last matchup he would have won.

Because Kerkvliet of 2022 is the same wrestler as Kerkvliet of 2025. @buckshot didn't even say that Kerk would win. He just said he could make it interesting. One guy has been training in wrestling the past two years while the other has not. I'm not picking anyone over Gable, but someone could make it interesting.

Just another snarky one-line comment without adding anything to the conversation. 

[boconnell]

3 hours ago, BruceyB said:

Because Kerkvliet of 2022 is the same wrestler as Kerkvliet of 2025. @buckshot didn't even say that Kerk would win. He just said he could make it interesting. One guy has been training in wrestling the past two years while the other has not. I'm not picking anyone over Gable, but someone could make it interesting.

Just another snarky one-line comment without adding anything to the conversation. 

Then say that Kerk has improved so much in two years that he could make it interesting.  Don't claim that the same PSU coaching staff that was there last time will be the difference.

Edited Monday at 08:10 AM by boconnell

[Pinnacle]

I am not predicting a Kerkvliet win over Gable Steveson, but since Greg last lost to him 3 years ago he has gone 50-3 with the only losses in college being to Mason Parris. During that time Gable has wrestled 4 matches against guys who are not in the conversation of being elite guys. 

Kerkvliet is a lot better than he was in March of 2022. Gable is who he is so he is going to try to bully Greg like he bullies everyone else. I for one am excited to see the match. 

Remember, Spencer Lee was never going to lose another college match too, and we all know how that worked out.  

[Truzzcat]

15 minutes ago, Pinnacle said:

I am not predicting a Kerkvliet win over Gable Steveson, but since Greg last lost to him 3 years ago he has gone 50-3 with the only losses in college being to Mason Parris. During that time Gable has wrestled 4 matches against guys who are not in the conversation of being elite guys. 

Kerkvliet is a lot better than he was in March of 2022. Gable is who he is so he is going to try to bully Greg like he bullies everyone else. I for one am excited to see the match. 

Remember, Spencer Lee was never going to lose another college match too, and we all know how that worked out.  

Gable beat Mason 3 times in 2023, now that was freestyle, but those matches were not that close and just going off trials results it seems like Mason has widened the gap from Greg.