Iowa v PSU - Jan. 27, 2023

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

Just now, Wrestleknownothing said:

I started following PSU closely in 2018 and I am sure they have not started at any other weight than 125 in that time. Anecdotally, there used to be a lot of talk on BWI about how they would start ever dual in at least a 6 point hole prior to the arrival of RBY.

Thanks!

[BerniePragle]

2 hours ago, PortaJohn said:

This Lee vs RBY thing has reached an all time level of stupidity.  A) Both Brands and Cael have shown throughout their coaching careers that duals are meaningless B)  RBY would beat Spencer Lee.  Yes.  He would.  Hes bigger, stronger, longer reach, and much faster.

Bigger?  Yeah.  Stronger?  I doubt it, especially grip strength.  Longer reach?  Yep.  Faster?  Yes, especially backing up.
The way you make it sound, Bravo-Young ought to be dominating everybody, pins, mostly first period, kind of like... Spencer Lee. 

Will we see it?  Very doubtful this year.  Maybe somewhere down the road...

[dragit]

3 hours ago, Le duke said:

Ok. A school that hasn’t produced an NCAA champ above 157 since the Brands bros took over. Better?


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Not better.  False.  

[fishbane]

2 hours ago, dragit said:

Not better. 

 

Jay Borschel is probably a better example.  He was a Brands recruit.  Perry was a Zalesky recruit and had finished 2nd and 3rd under Z.  Borschel was more over 157 and more of a Brands product than Perry.

[flyingcement]

Okay @Wrestleknownothing here are my final predictions if you are still keeping track:

125: Lee by fall over Steen 6-0

133: Bravo-Young by decision over Teske 6-3

141: Woods by decision over Bartlett 9-3

149: Van Ness by decision over Murin 9-6

157: Haines by decision over Siebrecht 9-9

165: Kennedy by decision over Facundo 12-9

174: Starocci by decision over Brands 12-12

184: Brooks by decision over Assad 12-15

197: Dean by decision over Warner 12-18

285: Cassioppi by decision over Kerkvliet 15-18, Nittany Lions win by three 

[dragit]

27 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Jay Borschel is probably a better example.  He was a Brands recruit.  Perry was a Zalesky recruit and had finished 2nd and 3rd under Z.  Borschel was more over 157 and more of a Brands product than Perry.

I gave both in my post.  Both were an "NCAA champ over 157 since the Brands Bros took over," which was the statement in question.  Perry twice. 

Borschel of course couldn't have been more Brands - he went through the whole Va Tech ordeal with him.

And Perry, in addition to meeting the definition in question, is a nice feather in the Brands coaching cap.  A lengthy film was made about the hurdle he cleared between his 2-3 under Zalesky and his 1-1 under Brands -- particularly that first "1," a big upset over Hendricks.

[1032004]

I feel like everyone is just assuming Spencer pins Steen, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if he didn't

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I feel like everyone is just assuming Spencer pins Steen, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if he didn't

That makes one of us.

[Le duke]

I feel like everyone is just assuming Spencer pins Steen, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if he didn't

Gary is a good kid but he’s a 118 wrestling against an exceptional top wrestler.


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[1032004]

I'm well aware of how Lee has been wrestling recently but it was only a month ago when he couldn't pin Charlie Farmer.

And the last time he wrestled in the Iowa-PSU dual in 2020 he only managed a tech of Brandon Meredith (interestingly in that same season he also pinned Liam Cronin in under a minute).

[Wrestleknownothing]

9 hours ago, flyingcement said:

Okay @Wrestleknownothing here are my final predictions if you are still keeping track:

125: Lee by fall over Steen 6-0

133: Bravo-Young by decision over Teske 6-3

141: Woods by decision over Bartlett 9-3

149: Van Ness by decision over Murin 9-6

157: Haines by decision over Siebrecht 9-9

165: Kennedy by decision over Facundo 12-9

174: Starocci by decision over Brands 12-12

184: Brooks by decision over Assad 12-15

197: Dean by decision over Warner 12-18

285: Cassioppi by decision over Kerkvliet 15-18, Nittany Lions win by three 

From 18-18 in the pre-season to 18-15 Iowa to 18-15 PSU. I love it.

Thursday Update:

This time with just the most recent pick by each (25) sayer of soothes.

 

Will He or Won't He?

RBY is no longer the unanimous choice at 133. I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'. 

Give the people what they want.

No ne predictions out of either the PSU boards or HR.

[Wrestleknownothing]

12 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I'm well aware of how Lee has been wrestling recently but it was only a month ago when he couldn't pin Charlie Farmer.

And the last time he wrestled in the Iowa-PSU dual in 2020 he only managed a tech of Brandon Meredith (interestingly in that same season he also pinned Liam Cronin in under a minute).

I will see your data point and raise you a data point. In 2020 his TF over Meredith was the sixth of six straight TF's. Now he is on a seven match pinfall streak. I think he wants to keep that streak alive and to do it at PSU would be delicious for him.

Would he be so bold as to release Steen if the TF is close, but he can't quite get the pinfall?

[ionel]

4 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

From 18-18 in the pre-season to 18-15 Iowa to 18-15 PSU. I love it.

Wait a minute, how many times can we change our minds and re-submit?  Is this still open at the half time break?  Is it only our last prediction that counts?  And most important, what does the winner get?  

[uncle bernard]

10 hours ago, fishbane said:

Jay Borschel is probably a better example.  He was a Brands recruit.  Perry was a Zalesky recruit and had finished 2nd and 3rd under Z.  Borschel was more over 157 and more of a Brands product than Perry.

your argument is that perry doesn't count because he couldn't get it done under the old coach, but beat the guy who beat him 9x under brands?

[ionel]

1 minute ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

... but he can't quite get the pinfall?

What???!!!

[Wrestleknownothing]

10 minutes ago, ionel said:

Wait a minute, how many times can we change our minds and re-submit?  Is this still open at the half time break?  Is it only our last prediction that counts?  And most important, what does the winner get?  

Page 1 me has all the answers.

[Wrestleknownothing]

9 minutes ago, ionel said:

What???!!!

It's a technical term. You wouldn't understand it.

[ionel]

On 1/13/2023 at 6:05 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

One more thought.

Feel free to change your minds as many times as you like in the next two weeks. Go ahead and share your predictions now, but don't feel locked in since there will be many more data points to consider between now and then.

 

8 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Page 1 me has all the answers.

so ... I can resubmit again on the 27th any time up thru say the last second of the 3rd period of HWT.  Guess the danger of waiting too late into that third period would be an unexpected pinfall.   not that I have any idea what that is

[BerniePragle]

21 minutes ago, ionel said:

 

so ... I can resubmit again on the 27th any time up thru say the last second of the 3rd period of HWT.  Guess the danger of waiting too late into that third period would be an unexpected pinfall.   not that I have any idea what that is

I'm waiting till Saturday morning for my final prediction in case anybody gets their lawyers involved. 

[BerniePragle]

1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

I feel like everyone is just assuming Spencer pins Steen, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if he didn't

A lot of us will be quite surprised if Steen makes it out of the first period. 

[fishbane]

7 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

your argument is that perry doesn't count because he couldn't get it done under the old coach, but beat the guy who beat him 9x under brands?

I don't recall making that argument, nor saying that Perry didn't count.  Borschel is the better example to refute the statement that Iowa/Brands hasn't produced a champion over 157lbs.  More over 157, more recent, coached exclusively by Brands.  

Putting number on the statement it essentially said Iowa/Brands produced 0 champs in the top 5 weights since Brands took over (2006).  If Perry were the only exception it would only require a slight change to the statement.  No champs in the top 4 weights since 2006 would be true or No champs in the top 5 weights since 2008.  Borschel is also an exception. So to make the statement true it would have to be no champs in the top 3 weights since 2006 or no champs in the top 5 weights since 2010.  One weight up and two years more recent.  

I don't think the best example of Brands "producing" a champion is taking a finalist who already had beaten an NCAA champion to a title.  Perry probably wins a title at some point under Zalesky.  Maybe you argue that he wouldn't have beaten Hendricks, but they were close before Brands took over.  Two years before they wrestled three times and they were all close 1-2 point matches, overtime, ect.  Even if you have Hendricks as a prohibitive favorite (90% chance of winning) after 6 matches it's only a coin flip that Hendricks wins them all.  At some point Perry gets one by him.  Heck even Askren was 1-7 against Pendleton.  Brands deserves some credit for getting the best match out of Perry on the biggest stage, but not as much as getting Borschel to a title.

The sentiment from the original statement still have some underlying truth.  Iowa has struggled to produce champions at the heavier weights under Brands.  They have had success at 165 and 174 under Brands consistently producing title contenders.  Perry, Borschel, Kemerer, and Marinelli were all legitimate title contenders.  They either made finals, were the 1 seed at nationals or won titles.  Warner is the only finalist Iowa has had 184-285 since 2004 and both of them were somewhat surprise finalists coming from the 6 and 10 seeds.  Their last title from the top 3 weights was Steve Mocco 20 years ago.

[VakAttack]

17 minutes ago, fishbane said:

 

The sentiment from the original statement still have some underlying truth.  Iowa has struggled to produce champions at the heavier weights under Brands.  They have had success at 165 and 174 under Brands consistently producing title contenders.  Perry, Borschel, Kemerer, and Marinelli were all legitimate title contenders.  They either made finals, were the 1 seed at nationals or won titles.  Warner is the only finalist Iowa has had 184-285 since 2004 and both of them were somewhat surprise finalists coming from the 6 and 10 seeds.  Their last title from the top 3 weights was Steve Mocco 20 years ago.

I mean...other than Penn State, this is true for all the rest of college wrestling at some weight range, or most weight ranges.

[Wrestleknownothing]

54 minutes ago, ionel said:

 

so ... I can resubmit again on the 27th any time up thru say the last second of the 3rd period of HWT.  Guess the danger of waiting too late into that third period would be an unexpected pinfall.   not that I have any idea what that is

You can certainly try. I will check with management. But be warned, all of their decisions are final and arbitrary.

[ionel]

17 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

You can certainly try. I will check with management. But be warned, all of their decisions are final and arbitrary.

based on random choice or personal whim, rather than any reason or system

I would expect nothing less.  

[fishbane]

1 hour ago, VakAttack said:

I mean...other than Penn State, this is true for all the rest of college wrestling at some weight range, or most weight ranges.

It's true.  There are maybe 3 programs where such criticism wouldn't be completely absurd.  Couple Iowa being one of them with the Brandses being small and the range of weights in question being at the heavy extreme, and people will read more into it than they should.

 

Back to predictions Flo posted there whiteboard war and Bray picked Iowa to win 21-12.  It's a more lopsided Iowa win than anyone predicted in this thread.