Does PSU's dominance make it harder for AJ Ferrari to find a landing spot?

[CHROMEBIRD]

Along similar lines, I wonder if NIL makes it harder for AJ Ferrari to find a landing spot, because having him on the roster could hurt NIL deals for your other wrestlers. Most fans here can separate AJ and his antics from his teammates and program, but brands can be pretty risk-averse. Maybe an NIL sponsor passes on making a deal with a kid because they're afraid consumers will connect the kid with the program & AJ. Idk.

[Wrestleknownothing]

22 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

Along similar lines, I wonder if NIL makes it harder for AJ Ferrari to find a landing spot, because having him on the roster could hurt NIL deals for your other wrestlers. Most fans here can separate AJ and his antics from his teammates and program, but brands can be pretty risk-averse. Maybe an NIL sponsor passes on making a deal with a kid because they're afraid consumers will connect the kid with the program & AJ. Idk.

I wonder how much NIL is even coming from corporations or small businesses at this point. It seems like the big deals (say >$100k for a wrestler or use of a car for a year) is coming from boosters who are more interested in the pay to play aspect rather than the commercial aspects of the actual NIL of the athlete. I have no knowledge one way or the other, but it just seems like it would likely be that way for these deals to come together quickly and as a package.

[dragit]

20 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

He was using my guess. 1 in 4 might be aggressive given my stated position that no one gets better at wrestling by not wrestling, but he did win once, so there is that. On the other hand, if Starocci and he are both 197 then I think I drop Ferrari to somewhere in the 1 in 10 range.

I'd put him at closer to 1 in 10 without Starocci in the field, and in the Washington Generals range against Starocci. 

[Hammerlock3]

10 minutes ago, dragit said:

I'd put him at closer to 1 in 10 without Starocci in the field, and in the Washington Generals range against Starocci. 

mirasola ferrari is more intriguing

[Le duke]

11 minutes ago, Hammerlock3 said:

mirasola ferrari is more intriguing

People on the old board gave me shit about nominating Starocci as the next likely 4 timer, particularly when he was just a RS FR, but I'll do it again:

If they RS Mirasola this year, he's going to be an absolute terror for the next four years. Askren has coached him up very well but he's still pretty raw in some positions. I expect to see some gigantic leaps from what we saw at OTTs and U20 WTTs to his RS FR year. He's going to be rolling with Cael, Varner, Brooks and Snyder on the regular.

[boconnell]

On 6/26/2024 at 10:41 AM, fishbane said:

Probably somewhere.  An individual national champ would mean a lot to a lot of programs.  Probably not any offering Ferrari a bag of cash.  He'd really have to change his attitude, be contrite, and acknowledge his roll in his current situation.

Coleman Scott's contract at UNC had a bonus of $20k if a wrestler won a national title.  I'm sure some current coaches have a similar bonus.  At $20k with a 1 in 4 chance that's an EV of $5k.  If Ferrari actually has 3 season left that number could go up.  For a coach with such a bonus this could mean up to $60k in bonuses if AJ runs the table.  On the other hand Scott's contract with that bonus also had a bonus for team GPA.  That bonus was smaller ($5k) but could be harder to get with Fast Twitch on the roster.

An individual champ is huge for many programs and coaches.  But bringing him in is also the thing that gets you fired at a mid or lower D1 program.  Most of those schools care more about the wrestling team not causing trouble than they do about the wrestling team winning.  It's a big gamble for a coach.

[fishbane]

7 minutes ago, boconnell said:

An individual champ is huge for many programs and coaches.  But bringing him in is also the thing that gets you fired at a mid or lower D1 program.  Most of those schools care more about the wrestling team not causing trouble than they do about the wrestling team winning.  It's a big gamble for a coach.

There is a risk, but the potential rewards are larger than the bonus for having an individual champ.  Getting a small time team into the top 10 is the kind of thing that lands you a big job.  Both Jack Spates and Mark Cody turned small programs into top 10 teams which landed them the OU job.

The risk should be somewhat less at a mid or lower program.  Scott Moore didn't lose his job when Marsteller got arrested at Lock Haven after being shown the door at OSU.  Sure it might get you fired at Princeton or Duke or Davidson or somewhere like that, but if you pick Rider, one of the PSACs, or a small state college they are likely have a longer leash. 

I would argue that Ferrari has been on a trajectory up and to the right.  At OSU there were allegations of burglary (expunged), sexual battery (dropped), and unsafe lane change (guilty) which caused a major accident.  The issues that we've heard come out of Iowa City by comparison have been minor and not criminal.  Heck if he slapped a teammate at a smaller school and flipped off the crowd at a mid or lower D1 program it would get less than half the attention.  

On FRL today they said he visited Northern Colorado and Rider.  Northern Colorado had that guy ripping overhooks on people for multiple years and Nickerson is still there.  With Allirez staying they could be a top 10 team with these two in the lineup.

[nhs67]

23 hours ago, ionel said:

What chance did you give Focus his true Fr year?

Is true Frosh season?

In 2021 I had Amine, Buchanan, Davison, Sloan, Ferrari, Bonaccorsi, Elam, Woodley, Caffey, and Shultz all highlighted as Tier 1/2 on my bracket.  So 1 in 11, if we are talking bodies?  Even then his odds were less than 1 in 11 because I had him on Tier 2.

In any case 1 in 10,000 is still a better chance than I give him if he goes 197lbs next year.

Tier 1 - Starocci
Tier 2 - EMPTY
Tier 3 - Buchanan, Cardenas, Elam, Little, Beard
Tier 4 - Focus, Glazier, Allred, Brawnagel, Smith
Tier 5 - Poz, Stout, Geog, few others...

I could see him navigating to place 2nd, but he would need to be opposite Starocci and he would also need to beat guys who I just don't think he has it in him to beat, at wrestling, anymore (Tier 3 gents).

*DISCLAIMER - These are subject to change at my whim as I see fit.

Edited June 27 by nhs67

[ionel]

4 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Is true Frosh season?

In 2021 I had Amine, Buchanan, Davison, Sloan, Ferrari, Bonaccorsi, Elam, Woodley, Caffey, and Shultz all highlighted as Tier 1/2 on my bracket.  So 1 in 11, if we are talking bodies?  Even then his odds were less than 1 in 11 because I had him on Tier 2.

In any case 1 in 10,000 is still a better chance than I give him if he goes 197lbs next year.

Tier 1 - Starocci
Tier 2 - EMPTY
Tier 3 - Buchanan, Cardenas, Elam, Little, Beard
Tier 4 - Focus, Glazier, Allred, Brawnagel, Smith
Tier 5 - Poz, Stout, Geog, few others...

I could see him navigating to place 2nd, but he would need to be opposite Starocci and he would also need to beat guys who I just don't think he has it in him to beat, at wrestling, anymore (Tier 3 gents).

*DISCLAIMER - These are subject to change at my whim as I see fit.

Seems odd you expectations are so low for the "best 197 lb ever." 

[nhs67]

3 minutes ago, ionel said:

Seems odd you expectations are so low for the "best 197 lb ever." 

You don't get better at wrestling by raping women, flexing, and not wrestling.

Hell his deadlift hasn't improved since high school and he lifts weights all the fckn time.  We expect him to have improved at wrestling?

Nah bro.

[Hammerlock3]

19 minutes ago, ionel said:

Seems odd you expectations are so low for the "best 197 lb ever." 

how dumb the statement is never ceases to delight me

[MPhillips]

21 hours ago, silver-medal said:

Just trying to stimulate discussion.  The forum can get stale.  

Understood Hank. 

 

This on the other hand...

"Are PSU fans really so hard up for conversation that they scour other forums looking for spicy comments?"

 

 

[boconnell]

1 hour ago, fishbane said:

There is a risk, but the potential rewards are larger than the bonus for having an individual champ.  Getting a small time team into the top 10 is the kind of thing that lands you a big job.  Both Jack Spates and Mark Cody turned small programs into top 10 teams which landed them the OU job.

The risk should be somewhat less at a mid or lower program.  Scott Moore didn't lose his job when Marsteller got arrested at Lock Haven after being shown the door at OSU.  Sure it might get you fired at Princeton or Duke or Davidson or somewhere like that, but if you pick Rider, one of the PSACs, or a small state college they are likely have a longer leash. 

I would argue that Ferrari has been on a trajectory up and to the right.  At OSU there were allegations of burglary (expunged), sexual battery (dropped), and unsafe lane change (guilty) which caused a major accident.  The issues that we've heard come out of Iowa City by comparison have been minor and not criminal.  Heck if he slapped a teammate at a smaller school and flipped off the crowd at a mid or lower D1 program it would get less than half the attention.  

On FRL today they said he visited Northern Colorado and Rider.  Northern Colorado had that guy ripping overhooks on people for multiple years and Nickerson is still there.  With Allirez staying they could be a top 10 team with these two in the lineup.

If they knowingly welcome someone with a sexual assault charge onto campus and anything like that happens again, things will go very ugly for everyone involved.  That kind of thing lands your name in a lawsuit.  That's very different than welcoming in Marstellar.

[fishbane]

15 hours ago, boconnell said:

If they knowingly welcome someone with a sexual assault charge onto campus and anything like that happens again, things will go very ugly for everyone involved.  That kind of thing lands your name in a lawsuit.

He doesn't have a sexual assault charge - it was dropped.  Depending on how the question on the application is worded he might not even have to formally explain himself.  And even if he has to disclose I think someone charged, but not convicted should have a path to get a higher education at a state institution.

15 hours ago, boconnell said:

That's very different than welcoming in Marstellar.

Okay then replace Marstellar with Tom Brands.   He wasn't charged, but was accused of sexual misconduct and disciplined for it in high school.  This is why he didn't wrestle in the state tournament as a senior he was suspended.  I reckon Gable decided whatever happened was a mistake but wasn't criminal and Brands was unlikely to get into similar trouble at Iowa.  A head coach could make a similar determination of Ferrari. 

[boconnell]

10 hours ago, fishbane said:

He doesn't have a sexual assault charge - it was dropped.  Depending on how the question on the application is worded he might not even have to formally explain himself.  And even if he has to disclose I think someone charged, but not convicted should have a path to get a higher education at a state institution.

Okay then replace Marstellar with Tom Brands.   He wasn't charged, but was accused of sexual misconduct and disciplined for it in high school.  This is why he didn't wrestle in the state tournament as a senior he was suspended.  I reckon Gable decided whatever happened was a mistake but wasn't criminal and Brands was unlikely to get into similar trouble at Iowa.  A head coach could make a similar determination of Ferrari. 

If you think accepting Brands 30 years ago is similar to accepting Ferarri now, then that's an opinion.  

I don't think Cael could get away with welcoming Long today.  Someone will definitely take Ferrari, and I hope he grabs hold of that chance and succeeds.  If he doesn't there will be plenty of accountability for plenty of people.

[fishbane]

2 hours ago, boconnell said:

If you think accepting Brands 30 years ago is similar to accepting Ferarri now, then that's an opinion.  

I dunno.  Ferrari's situation is unique.  We won't find an exact match.  Brands is probably the closest situation with a wrestler of Ferrari's caliber.  Though Ferrari is more of a sure thing on the mat now vs Brands coming out of high school.  On one hand you have a 1-time Iowa state champ with baggage and on the other you have a 1x NCAA champ with baggage.  

3 hours ago, boconnell said:

I don't think Cael could get away with welcoming Long today. 

Of course not.  Even if he wasn't out of eligibility a 4th chance just isn't happening for Long.  Long was a registered sex offender when the got his third chance at NAIA Grand View.  He wasn't allowed to live on campus because of his sex offender status.  Still he messed that up and was arrested for a parole violation.  He tried to use substitute urine in a drug test to conceal drug use.  The coach there wasn't sacked after that. 

I think you are overstating the risk to the coach that gives Ferrari a second chance.  If this is just Ferrari messing up again it probably doesn't take out the coach.  It the coach was on thin ice to begin with, whatever goes down involves multiple team members, or there is some attempt to cover it up then that's different.  The school has little to worry about in terms of lawsuits too, but if he was a registered sex offender like Long that would be different.

I think the biggest obstacle to Ferrari finding another team isn't the sexual battery charge now that it's been dropped - its everything else.  This is evidenced by Iowa ostensibly courting him up to at least the Soldier Salute incident. 

His situation might be closer to former MLB Pitcher Trevor Bauer.  Bauer was accused of sexual assault by multiple women, but all those charges were dropped and one women was even found to be lying to attempt to extort him.  She is being charged with filing a false report.  Still Bauer despite being a Cy Young winner cannot find an MLB team.  He was somewhat universally disliked in the clubhouse, seen as selfish, adversarial with the league, and his social media was a distraction at times.  After being out of the league for a year he played in Japan last year and this year is playing for a Mexican team.  This off season he finally changed his tune from "I did nothing wrong" to taking responsibility that his off field activities though not illegal had a negative effect on his team/teammates.  Still no team signed him.  It will take him singing that tune along with the right set of circumstances for him to find a team.

[1032004]

3 hours ago, fishbane said:

I dunno.  Ferrari's situation is unique.  We won't find an exact match.  Brands is probably the closest situation with a wrestler of Ferrari's caliber.  Though Ferrari is more of a sure thing on the mat now vs Brands coming out of high school.  On one hand you have a 1-time Iowa state champ with baggage and on the other you have a 1x NCAA champ with baggage.  

Of course not.  Even if he wasn't out of eligibility a 4th chance just isn't happening for Long.  Long was a registered sex offender when the got his third chance at NAIA Grand View.  He wasn't allowed to live on campus because of his sex offender status.  Still he messed that up and was arrested for a parole violation.  He tried to use substitute urine in a drug test to conceal drug use.  The coach there wasn't sacked after that. 

I think you are overstating the risk to the coach that gives Ferrari a second chance.  If this is just Ferrari messing up again it probably doesn't take out the coach.  It the coach was on thin ice to begin with, whatever goes down involves multiple team members, or there is some attempt to cover it up then that's different.  The school has little to worry about in terms of lawsuits too, but if he was a registered sex offender like Long that would be different.

I think the biggest obstacle to Ferrari finding another team isn't the sexual battery charge now that it's been dropped - its everything else.  This is evidenced by Iowa ostensibly courting him up to at least the Soldier Salute incident. 

His situation might be closer to former MLB Pitcher Trevor Bauer.  Bauer was accused of sexual assault by multiple women, but all those charges were dropped and one women was even found to be lying to attempt to extort him.  She is being charged with filing a false report.  Still Bauer despite being a Cy Young winner cannot find an MLB team.  He was somewhat universally disliked in the clubhouse, seen as selfish, adversarial with the league, and his social media was a distraction at times.  After being out of the league for a year he played in Japan last year and this year is playing for a Mexican team.  This off season he finally changed his tune from "I did nothing wrong" to taking responsibility that his off field activities though not illegal had a negative effect on his team/teammates.  Still no team signed him.  It will take him singing that tune along with the right set of circumstances for him to find a team.

If you’re saying the bigger issue with Ferrari isn’t the battery charge that was dropped, wouldn’t that put him along the same lines maybe not even as bad as Long when he went to PSU?  He had been guilty of public intoxication and using a fake ID, but don’t believe he had any allegations related to sexual assault.

Edited June 30 by 1032004

[Truzzcat]

I was not really familiar with Andrew Long I think I was 11 or 12 when he was a national runner up but I just checked his wrestlestat. In 2016 he won midlands teching Ronnie Perry Steve Bleise and pinning Danny sabbatello at 141 which is two weights up from his national finals appearance. I assume given his lifestyle his training was pretty shit at this point, I cannot imagine how good this guy could have been with a decent head on his shoulders.

[Hammerlock3]

2 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

I cannot imagine how good this guy could have been with a decent head on his shoulders.

why do we always treat discipline as if it was innate and talent as if it was earned.

[fishbane]

5 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

I was not really familiar with Andrew Long I think I was 11 or 12 when he was a national runner up but I just checked his wrestlestat. In 2016 he won midlands teching Ronnie Perry Steve Bleise and pinning Danny sabbatello at 141 which is two weights up from his national finals appearance. I assume given his lifestyle his training was pretty shit at this point, I cannot imagine how good this guy could have been with a decent head on his shoulders.

That was actually the 2015 Midlands in the 2015-2016 season, which was his one season at Grand View.  He was arrested for his parole violation in March or Feb 2016, so he was likely in a stable training situation for Midlands.  He admitted to using cocaine and alcohol recently at the time of his arrest, so probably wasn't totally on the straight and narrow.  

Long was 3rd at NCAAs at 133 for PSU in 2011, so it's not surprising to see him have success up a weight.  Especially considering those guys you listed went a combined 1-4 at NCAAs that year.  What's surprising is how easy his path was, considering that Midlands bracket contained Seth Gross, Anthony Ashnault, Matt Kolodzik, Chris Mecate, Kevin Jack, and Rick Durso.

[Truzzcat]

4 minutes ago, fishbane said:

That was actually the 2015 Midlands in the 2015-2016 season, which was his one season at Grand View.  He was arrested for his parole violation in March or Feb 2016, so he was likely in a stable training situation for Midlands.  He admitted to using cocaine and alcohol recently at the time of his arrest, so probably wasn't totally on the straight and narrow.  

Long was 3rd at NCAAs at 133 for PSU in 2011, so it's not surprising to see him have success up a weight.  Especially considering those guys you listed went a combined 1-4 at NCAAs that year.  What's surprising is how easy his path was, considering that Midlands bracket contained Seth Gross, Anthony Ashnault, Matt Kolodzik, Chris Mecate, Kevin Jack, and Rick Durso.

bleise was on an absolute heater until he wrestled Long it would seem, took out Jack and Kolodzik.

[fishbane]

6 hours ago, 1032004 said:

If you’re saying the bigger issue with Ferrari isn’t the battery charge that was dropped, wouldn’t that put him along the same lines maybe not even as bad as Long when he went to PSU?  He had been guilty of public intoxication and using a fake ID, but don’t believe he had any allegations related to sexual assault.

I think that's right about Long's record at ISU.  Two arrests both alcohol related at least one he was either in a fight or fought with the police.  I am not sure of his ultimate convictions.

Though not the biggest reason Ferrari cannot find a team it's still part of the totality of circumstances, which are not great.   Ferrari and OSU parted ways after the sexual battery investigation became public but well before he was charged with anything related to it.  I suspect AJ and his brother had been worn out their welcome well before this incident.  If he had been in good standing otherwise and denied any wrongdoing, he probably would have only been suspended until it was resolved.  This is how Minnesota handled Steveson's rape allegation.  Steveson was suspended after the arrest and allowed to resume wrestling after the prosecutor ultimately declined to charge him.  Ferrari injects dysfunction into a team in a way that Long and Steveson do not.  

Long also had an optimal situation to make that move happen, which is kind of the point of this thread.  Long's former coach was now at another school which was perhaps one piece away from a team title.  If Sanderson was not coaching and the top 2-3 teams didn't need a 125-133 he would have had more trouble making a move.

[alex1fly]

It's just a lot for a coach to take on. The dad will meddle, the middle brother has committed multiple violent crimes, the sister messed around with AJs teammate and caused a blow-up, AJ comes across as 100% narcissism & 0% self-awareness, and it'll all be posted on social media. And for what, a potential All American finish at 197? If I were bringing him in I'd suspend his social media use and have him volunteer and attend weekly counseling. Get his head out of the clouds. Or maybe I'd bring him in to intentionally blow up my program lol

Edited July 1 by alex1fly

[de4856]

I think the fact that PSU is dominant in wrestling has little effect on where AJ is going to end up. I think it’s all about AJ’s character and which program is willing to take a chance on him. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

13 minutes ago, de4856 said:

I think the fact that PSU is dominant in wrestling has little effect on where AJ is going to end up. I think it’s all about AJ’s character and which program is willing to take a chance on him. 

It is that last part that was the reason for the question. Which program is willing to take a chance?

If there was a team that was close to PSU, then that team might be tempted. That certainly seemed to be the case last season with Iowa.

While it is unfair to equate the opinions of GIA posters with Iowa coaches, there were a number who flip flopped on the prospect when they thought it could knock PSU off their pedestal. And his social media posts suggested that at least one booster was willing to pony up enough to put him in a lease (of course, we cannot discount that was just Ferrari going to Sixt for the day).

Now with no one seemingly close, that particular motivation is removed, thereby limiting Ferrari's options even further than just what he did with his own behavior.