Does PSU's dominance make it harder for AJ Ferrari to find a landing spot?

[Wrestleknownothing]

Something said in the Sammy Sasso thread got me thinking about how the team race affects the recruiting of an individual athlete with the combination of a large amount of baggage / large amount of talent that AJ Ferrari has. 

If the team race were at all in question, would a coach be more likely to take a chance on Ferrari in order to put the team over the top?

Put another way, is a potential individual champion (1 in 4 chance?) enough to make a coach want to add Ferrari to the team knowing that a team title is off the table?

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

Ask Tom Brands

[Hammerlock3]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Something said in the Sammy Sasso thread got me thinking about how the team race affects the recruiting of an individual athlete with the combination of a large amount of baggage / large amount of talent that AJ Ferrari has. 

If the team race were at all in question, would a coach be more likely to take a chance on Ferrari in order to put the team over the top?

Put another way, is a potential individual champion (1 in 4 chance?) enough to make a coach want to add Ferrari to the team knowing that a team title is off the table?

the answer is yes. How big is caleb henson for tech? Enormous.

Is it possible a top team would take a chance on him to beat psu? no. psu would take him if that was the case

[ionel]

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Something said in the Sammy Sasso thread got me thinking ...

Oh my 

Ok John already tried this, planning the 3F pipeline to a championship.  It only took 1F to blow up the program.  Why would any think its gonna work somewhere else or maybe try a different F?  Just crazy thought.  

[Truzzcat]

I absolutely think their dominance makes it unlikely he gets valued highly if at all. The risk reward simply is not there for the bigger teams. Now in the case of the rumored Northern Colorado squad he could make them a potential podium squad and what that can do for a smaller school is absolutely enormous. I will say though while I don't want him at Ohio State the stars could align where with him there they have 5 finalists just saying.

[ionel]

3 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

I absolutely think their dominance makes it unlikely he gets valued highly if at all. The risk reward simply is not there for the bigger teams. Now in the case of the rumored Northern Colorado squad he could make them a potential podium squad and what that can do for a smaller school is absolutely enormous. I will say though while I don't want him at Ohio State the stars could align where with him there they have 5 finalists just saying.

Go for it, what could possibly go wrong.

[silver-medal]

As someone who participates in a local Ohio State forum known for it's quality discussions, no one thinks AJ Ferrari is a good idea.  I suggested it and the consensus was unanimous that he's not at all the sort of person Tom Ryan wants to bring in.  

But Ohio State would be a much more dangerous team with a competitive Sasso and Ferrari in the lineup.  Good enough to challenge for runnerup.

Incidentally Tom Ryan is very close to Tom and Terry Brands.  I would not be surprised if he called them to find out exactly what they'd be getting into if they brought in Ferrari.

Edited June 26 by silver-medal

[ionel]

1 hour ago, silver-medal said:

As someone who participates in a local Ohio State forum known for it's quality discussions, no one thinks AJ Ferrari is a good idea.  I suggested it and the consensus was unanimous that he's not at all the sort of person Tom Ryan wants to bring in.  

But Ohio State would be a much more dangerous team with a competitive Sasso and Ferrari in the lineup.  Good enough to challenge for runnerup.

Incidentally Tom Ryan is very close to Tom and Terry Brands.  I would not be surprised if he called them to find out exactly what they'd be getting into if they brought in Ferrari.

Shirley @MPhillips thinks he's a cool cat?

I'd call John Smith, he's got better intel.  

[zirk]

Not too long ago, the Andrew Long / PSU situation wasn't too different...

Andrew had plenty of issues in Ames, but since he wasn't a returning NC, it didn't get the same amount of attention on the national level as AJ. Also Andrew wasn't on social media and in your face the same way as AJ was/is.

But to circle back... team race was open and a certain coach needed those extra points to secure the team title that year... and guess what program rolled the dice...

[MPhillips]

1 hour ago, silver-medal said:

I suggested it and the consensus was unanimous that he's not at all the sort of person Tom Ryan wants to bring in

I was curious and a bit surprised that you said,  "Ferrari is the counter punch the Bucks need to consider throwing. Bring him in. See what he says."  Especially knowing the audience involved. It almost seemed like clickbait....

 

 

[ionel]

42 minutes ago, zirk said:

Not too long ago, the Andrew Long / PSU situation wasn't too different...

Andrew had plenty of issues in Ames, but since he wasn't a returning NC, it didn't get the same amount of attention on the national level as AJ. Also Andrew wasn't on social media and in your face the same way as AJ was/is.

But to circle back... team race was open and a certain coach needed those extra points to secure the team title that year... and guess what program rolled the dice...

Good point but did Andrew come with two brothers, a dad, a mom and an uncle?

[1032004]

9 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

I absolutely think their dominance makes it unlikely he gets valued highly if at all. The risk reward simply is not there for the bigger teams. Now in the case of the rumored Northern Colorado squad he could make them a potential podium squad and what that can do for a smaller school is absolutely enormous. I will say though while I don't want him at Ohio State the stars could align where with him there they have 5 finalists just saying.

Doesn’t the Northern Colorado comment kinda contradict your first sentence?  I agree it makes him less valuable, but imo it kinda just pushes the tier of teams potentially looking at him down.  It’s likely teams that would not normally have a shot at the podium or top 10, and if they have 1 other stud then that person + Ferrari alone could get them in or near the top 10.  Although perusing wrestlestat there really aren’t many guys from mid to lower-tier schools ranked in the top 3-5.

Here are a few possibilities imo (and I have no idea if any of these teams are interested):

Lock Haven (Noto)

Ohio (Kellar)

SDSU (Devos/Berge + some other likely point scorers)

 

[AgaveMaria]

12 hours ago, zirk said:

Not too long ago, the Andrew Long / PSU situation wasn't too different...

Andrew had plenty of issues in Ames, but since he wasn't a returning NC, it didn't get the same amount of attention on the national level as AJ. Also Andrew wasn't on social media and in your face the same way as AJ was/is.

But to circle back... team race was open and a certain coach needed those extra points to secure the team title that year... and guess what program rolled the dice...

I'll give Cael the benefit of doubt here. Knowing his upbringing I think he felt he could help Long. Already knew him from ISU. We know he set strict boundaries and did what he could to help.

Not his fault Long didn't stay with the program.

As for Ferrari, I doubt Tom Ryan would bring him in. No upside bringing in a known trouble maker that will poison the room. Ryan tries for good character and Ferrari doesn't fit.

[Gus]

5 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Doesn’t the Northern Colorado comment kinda contradict your first sentence?  I agree it makes him less valuable, but imo it kinda just pushes the tier of teams potentially looking at him down.  It’s likely teams that would not normally have a shot at the podium or top 10, and if they have 1 other stud then that person + Ferrari alone could get them in or near the top 10.  Although perusing wrestlestat there really aren’t many guys from mid to lower-tier schools ranked in the top 3-5.

Here are a few possibilities imo (and I have no idea if any of these teams are interested):

Lock Haven (Noto)

Ohio (Kellar)

SDSU (Devos/Berge + some other likely point scorers)

 

Please keep AJ away from Brookings. The team is full of great guys and has great chemistry.

[alex1fly]

More simping for AJ? I don't see it. He's literally a daily risk to any room, fanbase, administration, and the coach's job. The only reason for any coach to take him at this point is to try and help the young man. Or if the coach shares the same narcissism.

[Le duke]

Northern Colorado tolerated a kid, for multiple seasons, who was trying to hurt people and did so on several occasions. 

What makes you think that AJ Ferrari is a bridge too far for them?

[Hammerlock3]

5 minutes ago, Le duke said:

Northern Colorado tolerated a kid, for multiple seasons, who was trying to hurt people and did so on several occasions. 

What makes you think that AJ Ferrari is a bridge too far for them?

i'll expand by saying ferrari might bring a decent amount to the team besides points, if you had the people to keep him in check. the problems are optics and that he does something stupid and impulsive off the mat

[fishbane]

19 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Put another way, is a potential individual champion (1 in 4 chance?) enough to make a coach want to add Ferrari to the team knowing that a team title is off the table?

Probably somewhere.  An individual national champ would mean a lot to a lot of programs.  Probably not any offering Ferrari a bag of cash.  He'd really have to change his attitude, be contrite, and acknowledge his roll in his current situation.

Coleman Scott's contract at UNC had a bonus of $20k if a wrestler won a national title.  I'm sure some current coaches have a similar bonus.  At $20k with a 1 in 4 chance that's an EV of $5k.  If Ferrari actually has 3 season left that number could go up.  For a coach with such a bonus this could mean up to $60k in bonuses if AJ runs the table.  On the other hand Scott's contract with that bonus also had a bonus for team GPA.  That bonus was smaller ($5k) but could be harder to get with Fast Twitch on the roster.

[nhs67]

1 hour ago, fishbane said:

Probably somewhere.  An individual national champ would mean a lot to a lot of programs.  Probably not any offering Ferrari a bag of cash.  He'd really have to change his attitude, be contrite, and acknowledge his roll in his current situation.

Coleman Scott's contract at UNC had a bonus of $20k if a wrestler won a national title.  I'm sure some current coaches have a similar bonus.  At $20k with a 1 in 4 chance that's an EV of $5k.  If Ferrari actually has 3 season left that number could go up.  For a coach with such a bonus this could mean up to $60k in bonuses if AJ runs the table.  On the other hand Scott's contract with that bonus also had a bonus for team GPA.  That bonus was smaller ($5k) but could be harder to get with Fast Twitch on the roster.

You give him a 1 in 4 chance of winning the title?

I don't.  Most coaches likely don't, either.

He won a NC as a true frosh and has done precisely dick since.  Hell, he 'lost' to a R24 last year.

[ionel]

4 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

You give him a 1 in 4 chance of winning the title?

I don't.  Most coaches likely don't, either.

He won a NC as a true frosh and has done precisely dick since.  Hell, he 'lost' to a R24 last year.

What chance did you give Focus his true Fr year?

[ionel]

2 hours ago, fishbane said:

 

Coleman Scott's contract at UNC had a bonus of $20k if a wrestler won a national title.  I'm sure some current coaches have a similar bonus.  At $20k with a 1 in 4 chance that's an EV of $5k.  If Ferrari actually has 3 season left that number could go up.  For a coach with such a bonus this could mean up to $60k in bonuses if AJ runs the table.  

Would you sell your soul for $5k, $20k or even yours and program for $60k? 

[Wrestleknownothing]

28 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

You give him a 1 in 4 chance of winning the title?

I don't.  Most coaches likely don't, either.

He won a NC as a true frosh and has done precisely dick since.  Hell, he 'lost' to a R24 last year.

He was using my guess. 1 in 4 might be aggressive given my stated position that no one gets better at wrestling by not wrestling, but he did win once, so there is that. On the other hand, if Starocci and he are both 197 then I think I drop Ferrari to somewhere in the 1 in 10 range.

[Wrestleknownothing]

24 minutes ago, ionel said:

Would you sell your soul for $5k, $20k or even yours and program for $60k? 

I don't view it as selling his soul if his motivation is to help and mentor Ferrari. If he is in it just for the dough, then that soul is already sold. Then there is a whole spectrum of choices in between.

[ionel]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I don't view it as selling his soul if his motivation is to help and mentor Ferrari. If he is in it just for the dough, then that soul is already sold. Then there is a whole spectrum of choices in between.

Sure maybe since it didn't work the last 6 to 8 times try again.  

[silver-medal]

19 hours ago, MPhillips said:

I was curious and a bit surprised that you said,  "Ferrari is the counter punch the Bucks need to consider throwing. Bring him in. See what he says."  Especially knowing the audience involved. It almost seemed like clickbait....

 

 

Just trying to stimulate discussion.  The forum can get stale.