Mesenbrink Ranking: enough is enough

[nhs67]

3 hours ago, BigRedFan said:

Brooks was seeded third, IIRC, because he didn't have sufficient matches to earn an RPI, so he couldn't possibly have been seeded #1.  Apples and oranges.

The committee can move guys up or down up to three positions.

They did it with RBY last year to give him the #1 seed as well as O'Toole (I think?).

[Truzzcat]

in regards to the seeding of Keegan if he splits with Carr. I would personally still seed him 1 if Mitchell runs the table and put Carr Mitchell at the 2,3. Assuming he goes into nationals with one loss and he wrestles everyone left on his schedule he will have likely beat hall 2x or olejnik 2x Ramirez and Carr on top of being a 2 time defending national champ. Mitchell would have Amine,fish,caliendo,hamiti as wins which are all great but given the landscape of this season does not quite compare. these wins could shape up to look differently by then, their are so many variables left still to account for but I personally would have a 1 loss Keegan at 1 however would understand Mitchell being there. selfishly I want to see Keegan against either Mitchell or Carr in the finals rather than the semis too.

[bnwtwg]

The committee will not do the right thing if there is a blemish on someone's record. Refer back to Steveson's freshman year when he obliterated White but still had to face Cassar in the semis for the real national championship match. That is because Cassar dropped a tight very early season loss to White, then beat Steveson at B1Gs. Everyone knew it was a crock and should not have happened on Friday night.

[PSULou64]

We have seen the committee do some head scratching seeding in years past.  In the end though none of these to guys are interested in taking the easy way to the championship.  They all believe they can beat whoever steps on the mat across from them.  I do believe that an undefeated Big Ten champion gets a #2 seed at the NCAA championship, given the caliber of other guys in the Big Ten, assuming Keegan goes undefeated and wins his conference as well and gets the #1 seed.  Any other scenario after that and it becomes a crap shoot as to how they seed the bracket.

[MizzouFan01]

1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

The committee can move guys up or down up to three positions.

They did it with RBY last year to give him the #1 seed as well as O'Toole (I think?).

KOT wasn’t the #1 seed last year. Carr was the #1, KOT was 3, maybe. Still to your point, the committee has set a precedent that they can and will move wrestlers in some years. 

[nhs67]

6 minutes ago, MizzouFan01 said:

KOT wasn’t the #1 seed last year. Carr was the #1, KOT was 3, maybe. Still to your point, the committee has set a precedent that they can and will move wrestlers in some years. 

Ah yeah.  Who was the 2nd one they moved up?

[MizzouFan01]

1 minute ago, nhs67 said:

Ah yeah.  Who was the 2nd one they moved up?

I stand corrected, had to look at it again. Carr was the 1, KOT the 2, Hamati 3 and Ramirez the 4

[ugarles]

6 hours ago, Pish said:

You may be right with the bouns thing..also, I didnt even realize he had 15 college matches last year (wasn't he in HS)?  Were they all D1 opponents last year?  I wouldn't think wrestlestats would use D2 or D3 guys

All D1, but WS will include matches against D2/D3/Juco/NAIA if they happen to be in an Open, but they don't count towards WS's best guess at matches that count for NCAA purposes.

[Caveira]

Psu plays the math razor thin with some of the seeding criteria.   If you wrestle a lot more matches and hand the same amount of losses vs someone who wrestles way less.  Guess what…. Your seed will suffer.  Everyone (most everyone) is in favor of that.   Maybe wrestle cklv or some other tourney and look for wins against prominent non big 10 opponents.   Would that make these situations easier to seed?   I think it typically/usually would.    

Subjectively using results from another sport like u20 worlds should not be a factor imo.   Sure.  Most/all of them do well….. but they have to prove they do well before earning the ranking.  

[PSULou64]

7 hours ago, Caveira said:

Psu plays the math razor thin with some of the seeding criteria.   If you wrestle a lot more matches and hand the same amount of losses vs someone who wrestles way less.  Guess what…. Your seed will suffer.  Everyone (most everyone) is in favor of that.   Maybe wrestle cklv or some other tourney and look for wins against prominent non big 10 opponents.   Would that make these situations easier to seed?   I think it typically/usually would.    

Subjectively using results from another sport like u20 worlds should not be a factor imo.   Sure.  Most/all of them do well….. but they have to prove they do well before earning the ranking.  

I think the reason they play it razor thin has to do with trying to be as healthy as possible going into the post season.  It would appear that they believe you can be at the top of your game having only wrestled 15 or so matches prior to Big Tens and be far healthier as well. 

We also knew this year was probably more of an issue because they told us it would be a reduced schedule. There are a good number of guys on the PSU team who are training to be potential olympians (also training with current olympians and world team members at the NLWC) and they are trying to balance that with the college season.

[Lleynor]

This topic went off the rails a bit. 

MM goes undefeated and he'll probably get the #1 or #2 seed. 

What's crazy is if O'Toole beats Carr again, Carr should be the #4. And these two meet on Friday evening!

[TwoJoints]

15 hours ago, Dogbone said:

I thought regardless what the formula spits out, the committee can move a guy a spot or two.

To me, the committee should be splitting up Carr and O'Toole (i.e. don't let them be the #2 & #3 seeds or the #1 and #4 seeds).

If a formula splits out MM #1, I am okay with it as long as the B12 runner up isn't on the same side as the B12 champion.

I understand seeding can be a point of pride, but IMHO being seeded 1 thru 4 is basically meaningless. In the end you’ve got to beat the best anywhere. Where it might make a difference is in the middle seeds (eg. the true 6 ranked as a 9) where it might cause you to encounter a higher seed a bout earlier in the bracket.

[BigRedFan]

8 minutes ago, TwoJoints said:

I understand seeding can be a point of pride, but IMHO being seeded 1 thru 4 is basically meaningless. In the end you’ve got to beat the best anywhere. Where it might make a difference is in the middle seeds (eg. the true 6 ranked as a 9) where it might cause you to encounter a higher seed a bout earlier in the bracket.

In 2023 at 174, Foca was #4 and lost to #1 Starocci.  The #2 Labriola beat #3 Lewis.  Foca beat Lewis for third place.  Tell Chris Foca that seeding 1 through 4 was meaningless.

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

9 hours ago, Caveira said:

Psu plays the math razor thin with some of the seeding criteria.   If you wrestle a lot more matches and hand the same amount of losses vs someone who wrestles way less.  Guess what…. Your seed will suffer.  Everyone (most everyone) is in favor of that.   Maybe wrestle cklv or some other tourney and look for wins against prominent non big 10 opponents.   Would that make these situations easier to seed?   I think it typically/usually would.    

Subjectively using results from another sport like u20 worlds should not be a factor imo.   Sure.  Most/all of them do well….. but they have to prove they do well before earning the ranking.  

Oh that crafty Cael!

[Wrestleknownothing]

9 hours ago, Caveira said:

Psu plays the math razor thin with some of the seeding criteria.   If you wrestle a lot more matches and hand the same amount of losses vs someone who wrestles way less.  Guess what…. Your seed will suffer.  Everyone (most everyone) is in favor of that.   Maybe wrestle cklv or some other tourney and look for wins against prominent non big 10 opponents.   Would that make these situations easier to seed?   I think it typically/usually would.    

Subjectively using results from another sport like u20 worlds should not be a factor imo.   Sure.  Most/all of them do well….. but they have to prove they do well before earning the ranking.  

You got that one backward. The person who wrestles more, with the same number of loses, will have the higher winning percentage, helping their seed.

[Wrestleknownothing]

46 minutes ago, BigRedFan said:

In 2023 at 174, Foca was #4 and lost to #1 Starocci.  The #2 Labriola beat #3 Lewis.  Foca beat Lewis for third place.  Tell Chris Foca that seeding 1 through 4 was meaningless.

There isn't enough information there to say it is meaningful, either. We don't know if Foca would have beat Labriola to make it to the final. If not, then he is right back in that third place match with Lewis or Starocci. And then maybe he comes in fourth.

[BigRedFan]

11 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

There isn't enough information there to say it is meaningful, either. We don't know if Foca would have beat Labriola to make it to the final. If not, then he is right back in that third place match with Lewis or Starocci. And then maybe he comes in fourth.

If the seeding was different, and Lewis and Foca were the #2 and #3 seeds, Foca may have beaten Lewis in the semi-finals instead of the consolation finals, and would have wrestled Saturday night (with teammates Arujau and Yianni!) for the title against Starocci.

[Gus]

2 minutes ago, BigRedFan said:

If the seeding was different, and Lewis and Foca were the #2 and #3 seeds, Foca may have beaten Lewis in the semi-finals instead of the consolation finals, and would have wrestled Saturday night (with teammates Arujau and Yianni!) for the title against Starocci.

Okay, so he would have possibly taken 2nd instead of third. He lost to the eventual champion so he wasn’t going to win. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

9 minutes ago, BigRedFan said:

If the seeding was different, and Lewis and Foca were the #2 and #3 seeds, Foca may have beaten Lewis in the semi-finals instead of the consolation finals, and would have wrestled Saturday night (with teammates Arujau and Yianni!) for the title against Starocci.

But your fact pattern only suggests flipping Foca to #3 and Lewis to #4, not bumping either to #2. So we still don't know what happens in #2 Labriola v #3 Foca.

BTW, I agree that seeds absolutely do matter.

Edited January 30 by Wrestleknownothing

[BigRedFan]

10 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

BTW, I agree that seeds absolutely do matter.

That wasn't exactly clear from your arguments!  This was my only point, if everyone just looks at the post that I quoted.

[BigRedFan]

16 minutes ago, Gus said:

Okay, so he would have possibly taken 2nd instead of third. He lost to the eventual champion so he wasn’t going to win. 

"Hey Chris, would you rather wrestle Saturday morning for third where you may win, or Saturday night in the finals with two teammates, where you'll likely lose?"

[Wrestleknownothing]

7 minutes ago, BigRedFan said:

That wasn't exactly clear from your arguments!  This was my only point, if everyone just looks at the post that I quoted.

Sorry about that. I added the BTW because I realized I was being unnecessarily argumentative.

[TylerDurden]

1 hour ago, Lleynor said:

This topic went off the rails a bit. 

MM goes undefeated and he'll probably get the #1 or #2 seed. 

What's crazy is if O'Toole beats Carr again, Carr should be the #4. And these two meet on Friday evening!

Assuming Carr doesn't lose to anyone that isn't KOT and MM goes undefeated, I think you can make a realistic case for Carr at No. 3. 

Ramirez has two losses - KOT just majored him and he lost to Olejnik (who Carr just beat 8-1). Carr also has wins over Amine (dec), Hamiti (dec.) and Caliendo (major). 

The head-to-head happened so it can't be discounted, but when I look at the overall body of work to date, I think Carr has more substance. 

I'm pretty sure the NCAA seeding Gods won't agree with me in that hypothetical situation. 

Also, we should get to see Carr/O'Toole twice before that NCAA Tournament. Carr beat him twice last year (dual/Big 12 Champ). If that happens again we could see and unbeaten MM as the No. 1 seed. 

Regardless of how this plays out, 165 is a great weight class.

 

[nhs67]

1 hour ago, BigRedFan said:

In 2023 at 174, Foca was #4 and lost to #1 Starocci.  The #2 Labriola beat #3 Lewis.  Foca beat Lewis for third place.  Tell Chris Foca that seeding 1 through 4 was meaningless.

You're using an example of a weight that was clear-cut, though.  1-4 mattered, yes, but it was because he lost to the three seed who lost to the two seed who lost to the one seed.

You don't seed NCAAs based off results at that NCAAs... it isn't possible.

A better example is 133lbs, where RBY was moved ahead of Fix at 133lbs.  I don't think it matters... Arujau was legitimately unbeatable at that tournament and for the next several months on the International stage...

That said, matches are wrestled for a reason and had RBY gotten Arujau in the semi-finals with the winner facing the Fix-McGee winner up top (McGee won for 3rd, but semi-finals is different... also of note is that McGee gave Arujau all he could handle earlier in the season).

That is a weight I would say that the seeding mattered.  The committee intervened and moved RBY up, however they did so based on last season's results - which should not have been a thing and is explicitly stated that they do not do in the seeding criteria.

[nhs67]

16 minutes ago, TylerDurden said:

Assuming Carr doesn't lose to anyone that isn't KOT and MM goes undefeated, I think you can make a realistic case for Carr at No. 3. 

Ramirez has two losses - KOT just majored him and he lost to Olejnik (who Carr just beat 8-1). Carr also has wins over Amine (dec), Hamiti (dec.) and Caliendo (major). 

The head-to-head happened so it can't be discounted, but when I look at the overall body of work to date, I think Carr has more substance. 

I'm pretty sure the NCAA seeding Gods won't agree with me in that hypothetical situation. 

Also, we should get to see Carr/O'Toole twice before that NCAA Tournament. Carr beat him twice last year (dual/Big 12 Champ). If that happens again we could see and unbeaten MM as the No. 1 seed. 

Regardless of how this plays out, 165 is a great weight class.

 

One thing that would be going against Carr is that if he loses to O'Toole, that gives him at least his 2nd loss.  If Ramirez and him both finish with two losses that would mean that O'Toole lost once as well.  If O'Toole sweeps the series in the regular season, I don't see how he isn't the one.  That, however, would put Carr at three losses and Ramirez at two.  Even if CR and common opponents are favor of Carr, winning percentage, conference championship and head to head would not be.  Add in that While 165 has four guys all highly favored to pull AA this year, EIWA may qualify more guys (they currently have more 'ranked' in the Top 33).  That would also mean that Ramirez would hold the Quality Wins advantage.  In this scenario, Carr would need the committee to move him above Ramirez, which I don't see happening because Ramirez did beat him.

Honestly if Ramirez wins out and Carr loses twice to O'Toole the coaches might not rank Carr ahead of Ramirez anyways.

Edited January 30 by nhs67