Mesenbrink Ranking: enough is enough

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

9 minutes ago, billyhoyle said:

From what I’ve seen from MM, he is more like Brooks, Starocci, Taylor, Ruth, Nolf than Haines, Mark Hall, RBY. All are great wrestlers but some of the PSU guys are just at a step above in term of dominance. 

A bit off topic, but your post kinda brings it up... Mark Hall was supposed to be in  that top tier of dominance coming out of high school if I remember.

Edited January 29 by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[Pish]

7 minutes ago, billyhoyle said:

As long as they are the top 3 it’s fine with me. All three are elite wrestlers. Having him at 7 at this point doesn’t make sense to me. 

Patience grasshopper 

[Pish]

4 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

A bit off topic, but your post kinda brings it up... Mark Hall was supposed to be in  that top tier of dominance coming out of high school if I remember.

Mark Hall finished 1, 2, 2 in his career. Pretty damned good!

As far as dominance..I don’t think that’s something you can predict until they get into college.  Some guys just have that extra something once they get in the room and sometimes it just takes time

 

Edited January 29 by Pish

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

Mesenbrink is killing it. My only concern is that he's a bit undersized for the weight.  Against the elite guys this might prove to be the difference.  He almost got horsed by Fish.

[Le duke]

For better or worse, I think that if Carr and KOT split, the seeding committee, via coaches ranking, will still have them 1 and 2.

KOT’s body of work (including a win over him at dual or B12s) and a Carr win KOT should earn them both a bit of deference over the field.

MM simply won’t have resume to match that. Going undefeated at 165 in the B1G isn’t the same as Carr going whatever and 2, with a loss to KOT (theoretical), a win (theoretical) and Ramirez loss.


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[Pinnacle]

2 hours ago, Pish said:

lf MM was at 157 I think it would be a “next topic” scenario. 

I haven't buried Meyer Shapiro's chances just yet. 

[Le duke]

I haven't buried Meyer Shapiro's chances just yet. 

He would absolutely melt Shapiro.

Shapiro gasses badly against guys not known for pace. Mesenbrink would have him falling over by the end of the 2nd.


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[Jimmy Cinnabon]

I've said this before but MM at 157 and 165 Haines makes more sense.  Haines has a bigger frame and MM is a small 165 pounder.

[Gus]

9 minutes ago, Le duke said:

He would absolutely melt Shapiro.

Shapiro gasses badly against guys not known for pace. Mesenbrink would have him falling over by the end of the 2nd.


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When he had a concussion… not a fair representation of Shapiro. Watch his match with Mauller for a non concussed version

[JimmyCinnabon]

2 hours ago, nhs67 said:

I think the formula may spit Mesenbrink out, however the committee can move people up/down if required.

I could see where if Carr wins the dual and O'Toole wins the B12 a one-loss O'Toole being moved above Mesenbrink... 2x defending champ, etc.  That route could put Carr at the 4 seed as well, due to Ramirez having the same amount of losses and having lost the H2H... BUT Carr does have more matches, so even with the same losses he will get the nod on that criteria due to winning percentage.  Due to it putting them on the same side, I could see the committee NOT elevating O'Toole past Mesenbrink for the 1 seed, in that scenario.

The same the other way, too.  If Carr wins B12 but loses the dual, I think they end up as the 2/3.

A lot is going to be dependent on the final coaches ranking, I think?

If Carr and O'Toole split and MM goes undefeated and wins the B1G then MM will be number one. We have precedent in just last year when Aaron Brooks had one loss, won the B1G tournament and was still the #3 seed as a 2X defending NCAA champ. 

[Le duke]

When he had a concussion… not a fair representation of Shapiro. Watch his match with Mauller for a non concussed version

I watched him barely survive the vaunted Max Brignola, whose coaches probably should’ve tossed a challenge brick for neutral danger when Shapiro was straight up cooked. That was two weekends ago.


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[Gus]

15 minutes ago, Le duke said:

I watched him barely survive the vaunted Max Brignola, whose coaches probably should’ve tossed a challenge brick for neutral danger when Shapiro was straight up cooked. That was two weekends ago.


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We will see how he progresses throughout the year. Concussions are tricky for training and competing. I am assuming he had one since he looked lost at CKLV and he is now wearing the padded headgear. He looked great and without any gas tank issues against Mauller this weekend. 

[nhs67]

18 minutes ago, JimmyCinnabon said:

If Carr and O'Toole split and MM goes undefeated and wins the B1G then MM will be number one. We have precedent in just last year when Aaron Brooks had one loss, won the B1G tournament and was still the #3 seed as a 2X defending NCAA champ. 

Not really apples to apples, mate.

PK and TH both had one loss on the season prior and they split.  Brooks had one loss to someone who wasn't either of them.

Brooks had one loss to someone who wasn't even a title contender in most people's eyes (the coach's being the most important one to consider due to Coach's Rank).

[fishbane]

3 hours ago, Pish said:

Reminds me of Aaron Brooks first year. They had him ranked below like 4 ACC wrestlers because they were all ranked ahead to start and they all beat up on themselves. 
 

if I recall, it was Bolen, Hidlay, DePerez and someone else.  Brooks couldn’t jump ahead because he never had opportunity to wrestle them.

The big ten was really weak at 184 that year.  Going into the postseason Brooks's best win was Abe Assad.  He had also lost a match to Venz.  At Big Tens he avenged the loss to Venz and was the 3 seed heading into NCAAs behind Lujan and Bolen.  If PSU went to CKLV, Midlands, or Scuffle this likely wouldn't be an issue for Brooks or Messenbrink.

[JimmyCinnabon]

20 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Not really apples to apples, mate.

PK and TH both had one loss on the season prior and they split.  Brooks had one loss to someone who wasn't either of them.

Brooks had one loss to someone who wasn't even a title contender in most people's eyes (the coach's being the most important one to consider due to Coach's Rank).

Whether they want to admit it or not the NWCA All-Star Classic plays a roll in seeding. It has in the past and Brooks beat PK last year.

Now, it is a matter of what you think is most important because it seems like they change the criteria to fit who they want to rank where. Are we seeding guys based on who we think is actually the best or is it based on results? Or is it a mix? 

In my opinion if Carr and O'toole split then whoever wins the Big12 should be the number one seed even if MM is undefeated and wins the B1G. I wouldn't even be upset if Carr and O'Toole split and they go 1-2 and an undefeated MM is #3. However, I do think last year is precedent if anyone wants to rank an undefeated MM over Carr/O'Toole if they split. Aaron Brooks at #3 last year was just silly and everybody knew they weren't ranking it based on who was actually the best guy. 

[Pinnacle]

1 hour ago, Le duke said:

He would absolutely melt Shapiro.

Shapiro gasses badly against guys not known for pace. Mesenbrink would have him falling over by the end of the 2nd.


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Shapiro will wrestle Haines, not Messenbrink. Right now same weight I favor Messenbrink over Shapiro by at least 2 takedowns, maybe more. 

At 157 based solely on the last 4 weeks I rate Haines and Shapiro a toss up. Haines is dinged by a couple average results, but that is offset by the PSU post season bump.

[1032004]

2 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Mesenbrink is killing it. My only concern is that he's a bit undersized for the weight.  Against the elite guys this might prove to be the difference.  He almost got horsed by Fish.

I know this is Jimmy, and I wouldn’t say he’s undersized but I could see him having trouble with a really strong guy like Caliendo.  I think he dominates Hamiti though

[Truzzcat]

I think people are underrating the year hamiti is having a bit 18-1 only loss 2-0 to Carr and an 84% bonus rate with a 15-0 win over fish (also a 5-3) 18-3 over hepner 2 pins over beau man, 2 majors over Cael Carlson who is having a bad year but is generally pretty tough and a 12-0 win over hall who has been great. I know he had the loss to olejnik but he lived on his legs just couldn't figure out that shin whizzer position where olejnik is outstanding.

Edited January 29 by Truzzcat

[BigRedFan]

1 hour ago, Le duke said:

He would absolutely melt Shapiro.

Shapiro gasses badly against guys not known for pace. Mesenbrink would have him falling over by the end of the 2nd.


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Like Andonian and Gallagher and Mauller?  The latter of whom gave up the first bonus loss of his career?  And who, collectively, he outscored 45-8, including not giving up even an escape to Gallagher?  How do you gas badly and accomplish that against these guys?

Are you trying to say that he doesn't gas against those known for high pace, or that he even gasses against those without high pace?

[Hammerlock3]

12 hours ago, billyhoyle said:

I get that there's a tradition in wrestling to not jump up the rankings unless you beat a higher-ranked wrestler, but when will a ranker out there move him to at least #4?  If you look at his performance at U20 worlds (one of the best indicators of NCAA success) and his absolute dominance so far this year, does anybody doubt that he should be in the top 4?  If it were me, i'd move him to #2.  Maybe Carr was rusty early and beats him, but I doubt it. 

 

 

you're wrong. Rankings reflect previous results, we don't want every ranker to take on the Flo model and sprint with whoever is trendy or has a mullet. He'll be up there before too long, and he'll be very durable in the rankings after that.

[nhs67]

35 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I know this is Jimmy, and I wouldn’t say he’s undersized but I could see him having trouble with a really strong guy like Caliendo.  I think he dominates Hamiti though

He had no difficulty with Amine, who is well touted by his opponents for being the strongest they have wrestled.

[PortaJohn]

44 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I know this is Jimmy, and I wouldn’t say he’s undersized but I could see him having trouble with a really strong guy like Caliendo.  I think he dominates Hamiti though

He won't struggle with Caliendo's strength.  And @Jimmy Cinnabon.  Messenbrink is not undersized.  Stop with that nonsense 

[nhs67]

40 minutes ago, JimmyCinnabon said:

Whether they want to admit it or not the NWCA All-Star Classic plays a roll in seeding. It has in the past and Brooks beat PK last year.

Now, it is a matter of what you think is most important because it seems like they change the criteria to fit who they want to rank where. Are we seeding guys based on who we think is actually the best or is it based on results? Or is it a mix? 

In my opinion if Carr and O'toole split then whoever wins the Big12 should be the number one seed even if MM is undefeated and wins the B1G. I wouldn't even be upset if Carr and O'Toole split and they go 1-2 and an undefeated MM is #3. However, I do think last year is precedent if anyone wants to rank an undefeated MM over Carr/O'Toole if they split. Aaron Brooks at #3 last year was just silly and everybody knew they weren't ranking it based on who was actually the best guy. 

If you cared to pay attention, you would know that I am well aware that the ASC plays in to the coaches ranking.

Seeds and predictions are all quite different animals.  Seeds are based off results, which rankings try to take in to account as well.  Predictions are typically well off because then you have more of an opinion factored in and you are able to take in to account who you THINK the best at the weight is.  Aaron Brooks as the 3 seed made sense.  He popped out as the 3 seed in the seeding formula.  He had a worse RPI, worse winning percentage, less quality wins and worse results against common opponents (Coleman for Keckeisen).  The seeding formula is a formula.  The only opinion based thing on opinion there is Coaches Ranking, which I am pretty sure he was #1 on still.

You keep saying there is precedence and using a piss-poor example.  Brooks had actually lost and that dropped him down on a lot of criteria, especially since his match count was less than the other guys with one loss (Hidlay/Keckeisen).  The same will be said for Mesenbrink if he takes a loss.  There are quite a few other guys that will have a better winning percentage because of his match count.

For example, if O'Toole and Carr both go 1-1 on the way out, with one of them winning the title, the one who loses will lose the conference title criteria of the seeding formula to an undefeated Mesenbrink.  He also loses winning percentage.  Those are two that he is already behind on.

Here is a thread that Nomad had started last year regarding this...

 

[nhs67]

1 minute ago, PortaJohn said:

He won't struggle with Caliendo's strength.  And @Jimmy Cinnabon.  Messenbrink is not undersized.  Stop with that nonsense 

He is small compared to some other 165lbers.  That doesn't mean he is undersized.  I would call him average sized.

[nhs67]

Additional info to chew on.

https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/10709742-aaron-brooks-the-3-here-are-7-surprising-ncaa-wrestling-championship-seeds