Best chance to upset Penn St?

[scorenomore]

College football and other sports can have upsets due to big plays - pick 6 and so on.  Penn State on paper is on track to be a lock to win nationals.  What would need to happen to make an upset remotely possible - not likely but remotely possible?

• Ferrari comes back and wins 197
• Stevenson returns and wins heavy
• Olympic redshirt for Starocci and Brooks
• 4th place or lower finishes for Bartlett and Van Ness

Not hating on Penn State but rooting for an interesting national tournament.  Even when I run my numbers, I still have Penn State winning the title.  Only chance I can think of is if Ohio State's last 2 years of recruits set the world on fire.  Could they see champs at 133, 141, 149 and maybe some really high finishes at 174 and heavy sprinkled in with AAs at 165 and 197?  Admittedly, this is a big stretch but just trying to see if there is anyway for another team to win in 2024.  I don't see Cornell being in position to overtake them and I think Michigan's retreads will run suffer from HEW.

Edited May 19, 2023 by scorenomore
correction

[PortaJohn]

 

[82bordeaux]

11 hours ago, scorenomore said:

College football and other sports can have upsets due to big plays - pick 6 and so on.  Penn State on paper is on track to be a lock to win nationals.  What would need to happen to make an upset remotely possible - not likely but remotely possible?

• Ferrari comes back and wins 197
• Stevenson returns and wins heavy
• Olympic redshirt for Starocci and Brooks
• 4th place or lower finishes for Bartlett and Van Ness

Not hating on Penn State but rooting for an interesting national tournament.  Even when I run my numbers, I still have Penn State winning the title.  Only chance I can think of is if Ohio State's last 2 years of recruits set the world on fire.  Could they see champs at 133, 141, 149 and maybe some really high finishes at 174 and heavy sprinkled in with AAs at 165 and 197?  Admittedly, this is a big stretch but just trying to see if there is anyway for another team to win in 2024.  I don't see Cornell being in position to overtake them and I think Michigan's retreads will run suffer from HEW.

Only one way...

[Gus]

Best chance for an upset is for the whole team to get the flu at NCAA's

[ionel]

28 minutes ago, Gus said:

Best chance for an upset is for the whole team to get the flu at NCAA's

Don't know about that, didn't Nolf do pretty well without a knee?  A bit of flu, who knows.  Don't we all know that Cael had a bit of flu sometime during the 159?

I do know that Wkn gets upset when folks suggest PSU is throwing around big NIL coin.  I think that's as close (and he doesn't live near happy valley) to an upset Penn St as we are going to get, but what do I know.  

Edited May 19, 2023 by ionel

[Le duke]

12 hours ago, scorenomore said:

College football and other sports can have upsets due to big plays - pick 6 and so on.  Penn State on paper is on track to be a lock to win nationals.  What would need to happen to make an upset remotely possible - not likely but remotely possible?

• Ferrari comes back and wins 197
• Stevenson returns and wins heavy
• Olympic redshirt for Starocci and Brooks
• 4th place or lower finishes for Bartlett and Van Ness

Not hating on Penn State but rooting for an interesting national tournament.  Even when I run my numbers, I still have Penn State winning the title.  Only chance I can think of is if Ohio State's last 2 years of recruits set the world on fire.  Could they see champs at 133, 141, 149 and maybe some really high finishes at 174 and heavy sprinkled in with AAs at 165 and 197?  Admittedly, this is a big stretch but just trying to see if there is anyway for another team to win in 2024.  I don't see Cornell being in position to overtake them and I think Michigan's retreads will run suffer from HEW.

I think Bartlett and SVN both have a much higher likelihood of going 3rd or better than they do of going 4th or lower. 

A lot of AAs departed (Yianni, Murin, Yahya, Gomez) and may clear out more if Sasso goes up, and SVN is coming off of his first, only real season of collegiate wrestling. He's going to make additional gains this year. The only guy he's lost to that returns is Paniro, and he beat him resoundingly at NCAAs. Ridge returns at 149 but I think SVN might beat him in a dual, at B1Gs and at NCAAs. He took three higher seeds out at NCAAs with Paniro (5 seed), Parco (3 seed, 4th place) and Hensen (4 seed, 5th place). He's going to clean up some of that wildness and improve from neutral. Maybe he'll even learn how to sprawl at some point. Lovett returns, but while he's very good, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see SVN beat him.

Bartlett is in a similar position. NCAA champ at the weight expected to take an OLY. Bartlett wrestles his own match; he's extremely difficult to score on and picks his spots. Went 8-3 against AAs last year, with losses to Hardy, Alirez and Woods. Confidence has to be really high right now with a 3rd place finish at NCAAs and taking Nick Lee to a 10-10 loss on criteria. 

Like I said in another thread, there are going to be some Top-10 level teams who would get shut out by PSU this year. Very few will get more than 2 wins. Iowa likely won't break into double digits at the dual, with Penn State taking every weight from 149 on up if Messenbrink goes.

 

 

Edited May 19, 2023 by Le duke

[Wrestleknownothing]

50 minutes ago, ionel said:

Don't know about that, didn't Nolf do pretty well without a knee?  A bit of flu, who knows.  Don't we all know that Cael had a bit of flu sometime during the 159?

I do know that Wkn gets upset when folks suggest PSU is throwing around big NIL coin.  I think that's as close (and he doesn't live near happy valley) to an upset Penn St as we are going to get, but what do I know.  

I will let Elvis reply for me.

[nhs67]

At NCAAs?

Nobody is going to upset them this season.  It just isn't logical.  You would need them to under-perform in nearly every weight and just one other team to over-perform at every weight.

NC State, Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan are the likely culprits for an over-performance.  To the extreme needed wouldn't realistically be possible.

NC State, for example.
125 - Comacho - 1st
133 - Orine - 3rd
141 - Jack - 6th
149 - Arrington - 3rd
157 - Scott - 1st
165 - Singleton - 5th
174 - Faison - R16
184 - Fishback - 5th
197 - Hidlay - 1st
285 - Trumble - 3rd (Trephan isn't doing it)

Penn State would need to do something like this then...
125 - Howard - DNQ
133 - Nagao - 8th, Soph Slump
141 - Bartlett - 7th
149 - VanNess - 7th
157 - Haines - 5th
165 - Facundo - 0-2
174 - Starocci - 2nd
184 - Truax - 4th
197 - Brooks - 2nd
285 - Kerkvliet - 2nd

For both those extremes to happen just isn't going to be a thing.

In a dual format it is quite similar.  For example, Michigan COULD win 125, 133, 141, 157, 165, 174, and 285.  Winning them all is a tall task and would need a multitude of things to line up and probably certain Penn State starters to be sick, injured, or out.

[Elevator]

Cornell could be a spoiler too - might be greater upset risk in a dual meet than at NCAAs.

[nhs67]

14 minutes ago, Elevator said:

Cornell could be a spoiler too - might be greater upset risk in a dual meet than at NCAAs.

I meant to include them as well.  The only matches I don't see as possible wins for Cornell, all health providing, are 157 amd 285.

[D3 for LU]

Yeah... upset in a dual is more likely, than @ the NCAA tournament.

(Not so much, unless THIS happens.... a wack on the nit's knees times ten by an "unknown" figure skater perhaps?  )

D3

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

The field needs them to turn into 2015 Missouri.

Based on seeds, MIZZ was expected to win by 10.5. Instead they barely made the podium, 28.5 points behind Ohio State.

[PencilNeck]

[ionel]

4 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I will let Elvis reply for me.

 

[scourge165]

6 hours ago, Le duke said:

A lot of AAs departed (Yianni, Murin, Yahya, Gomez) and may clear out more if Sasso goes up, and SVN is coming off of his first, only real season of collegiate wrestling. He's going to make additional gains this year. The only guy he's lost to that returns is Paniro, and he beat him resoundingly at NCAAs. Ridge returns at 149 but I think SVN might beat him in a dual, at B1Gs and at NCAAs. He took three higher seeds out at NCAAs with Paniro (5 seed), Parco (3 seed, 4th place) and Hensen (4 seed, 5th place). He's going to clean up some of that wildness and improve from neutral. Maybe he'll even learn how to sprawl at some point. Lovett returns, but while he's very good, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see SVN beat him.

Something happen with Gomez? Last I saw he was still disappointed, but planning on using his final year and hoped to get a medical(I don't know how that's possible, but...whatever).

But he was definitely planning on being back.

He announce he's taking a OLY RS? I've been on vacation and otherwise occupied the last few weeks.

[Wrestleknownothing]

5 minutes ago, scourge165 said:

Something happen with Gomez? Last I saw he was still disappointed, but planning on using his final year and hoped to get a medical(I don't know how that's possible, but...whatever).

But he was definitely planning on being back.

He announce he's taking a OLY RS? I've been on vacation and otherwise occupied the last few weeks.

He announced his retirement from college wrestling 

https://www.on3.com/college/wisconsin-badgers/news/austin-gomez-announces-forgo-final-season-wrestling-wisconsin-freestyle-world-olympics/

Edited May 19, 2023 by Wrestleknownothing

[BigRedFan]

4 hours ago, Elevator said:

Cornell could be a spoiler too - might be greater upset risk in a dual meet than at NCAAs.

Hard to imagine any scenario (other than a bus accident) in which Cornell could beat PSU in a dual meet or at the NCAAs.  Best cases, which still won't get it done:

125:  Greg D. rebounds from surgery and regains form he once had and beats Ungar.  Possible low AA

133:  Arujau National Champ

141:  Cornella stops doing stupid things.  Possible mid-AA

149:  Meyer Shapiro is all he's expected to be.  Possible finalist

157:  Yapoujian finally healthy or Handlovic fills out.  NQ

165:  Ramirez doesn't have to face Griffith any more.  Possible mid-AA

174:  Foca.  Likely Finalist

184:  Loew recovers from surgery and puts on some muscle.  Possible mid-AA

197:  Cardenas continues to improve and build self-confidence.  Possible mid-AA

285:  Fernandes finally healthy and becomes Cornell's first heavyweight AA.

(laughing at the thought of nine All-Americans from Cornell)

[scorenomore]

It's interesting that this year's team could be one of the most dominant in individual championships or one of the least PSU individual championships in recent memory.  If Starocci and Brooks took Olympic redshirts, then Haines is your only PSU champion.  Does anyone know if Starocci is unable to compete after getting injured at the US Open?

125 - Ramos/Figueroa favored, Howard NQ
133 - Arujao/Fix favored, Nagao top 4
141 - Woods favored, Bartlett top 4 (NCAA offensive scoring was very low)
149 - Sasso/Shapiro favored, VanNess top 4
157 - Haines - real chance of winning
165 - O'Toole/Carr, Facundo/Messenbrink unlikely to win
174 - For the upset to have a chance, No Starocci - Olympic redshirt
184 - Keckeisen Favored / Truax - 2nd
197 - For the upset to have a chance, No Brooks - Olympic Redshirt
285 - Steveson returns, Kerkvliet - 3rd 

[flyingcement]

Purdue 

[ionel]

21 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

Purdue 

Boiler Up!

[Elevator]

3 hours ago, scorenomore said:

It's interesting that this year's team could be one of the most dominant in individual championships or one of the least PSU individual championships in recent memory.  If Starocci and Brooks took Olympic redshirts, then Haines is your only PSU champion.  Does anyone know if Starocci is unable to compete after getting injured at the US Open?

125 - Ramos/Figueroa favored, Howard NQ
133 - Arujao/Fix favored, Nagao top 4
141 - Woods favored, Bartlett top 4 (NCAA offensive scoring was very low)
149 - Sasso/Shapiro favored, VanNess top 4
157 - Haines - real chance of winning
165 - O'Toole/Carr, Facundo/Messenbrink unlikely to win
174 - For the upset to have a chance, No Starocci - Olympic redshirt
184 - Keckeisen Favored / Truax - 2nd
197 - For the upset to have a chance, No Brooks - Olympic Redshirt
285 - Steveson returns, Kerkvliet - 3rd 

Has Shapiro ever beaten VanNess or any of the other top 8 guys in the preseason rankings?  

[Le duke]

Has Shapiro ever beaten VanNess or any of the other top 8 guys in the preseason rankings?  

He didn’t beat a single NQ last year.

As I said above, Shapiro is going to be very good. AA-good.

But as it stands, WrestleStat has it 26-6. They have Ungar over Howard and Facundo over Ramirez. I’d likely swap both of those results. But, I’d also pick a Messenbrink over Ramirez.


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[BigRedFan]

28 minutes ago, Elevator said:

Has Shapiro ever beaten VanNess or any of the other top 8 guys in the preseason rankings?  

Pretty sure he hasn't faced any of them (he's at least a year younger than all of them).  He did beat #8 (at 157) Daniel Cardenas 11-0  in April at the US Open; also beat
#11 Arrington (both at 70kg).

[ionel]

20 minutes ago, Le duke said:

He didn’t beat a single NQ last year.

As I said above, Shapiro is going to be very good. AA-good.
 

NC material. 

[Elevator]

15 hours ago, Le duke said:

He didn’t beat a single NQ last year.

As I said above, Shapiro is going to be very good. AA-good.

But as it stands, WrestleStat has it 26-6. They have Ungar over Howard and Facundo over Ramirez. I’d likely swap both of those results. But, I’d also pick a Messenbrink over Ramirez.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I am not meaning to dissent from this prediction, but had not yet gotten the sense that he was a likely finalist - a lot of ass-kick for a true frosh.  So I guess many knowledgable fans of the sport think Shapiro is up there with Haines and Messenbrink in terms of early expectations?