Agree, I think it’s hard to set a half-point over/under since 4 (at least) seems like the most likely outcome. I don’t envision Dake or Snyder losing, or Taylor losing to someone besides Brooks, and then figure they get at least one of the other weights.
I don’t know if I agree with your last sentence though. I think it being “more difficult” is probably only true at 86. 65 and 74 about equal IMO.