Which two teams, combined, beat PSU in a dual?

[Le duke]

Penn State, assuming everyone goes, will have a particularly stacked team this year. 8 of their 10 starters will start the year ranked in the top 3, with 125 and, ahem, 165 being the exceptions.

 

On WrestleStat, for example, they are predicted to lose no more than 3 matches to any one team, mostly at 125 and 165. There are a good number of very good teams predicted to score 3 or 0 points against them.

 

So, which two teams do you think could combine to beat them, with their best 10 against the best of Penn State?

 

A good one that I saw someone else post was Nebraska + VT. They might get four, maybe even five but PSU picks up bonus to win.

 

 

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[Ban Basketball]

4 minutes ago, Le duke said:

 

Penn State, assuming everyone goes, will have a particularly stacked team this year. 8 of their 10 starters will start the year ranked in the top 3, with 125 and, ahem, 165 being the exceptions.

 

On WrestleStat, for example, they are predicted to lose no more than 3 matches to any one team, mostly at 125 and 165. There are a good number of very good teams predicted to score 3 or 0 points against them.

 

So, which two teams do you think could combine to beat them, with their best 10 against the best of Penn State?

 

A good one that I saw someone else post was Nebraska + VT. They might get four, maybe even five but PSU picks up bonus to win.

 

 

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That's a frightening and dismaying thought that two teams combined may not be able to beat them. 

[Husker_Du]

18 minutes ago, Le duke said:

On WrestleStat, for example, they are predicted to lose no more than 3 matches to any one team.

that's bonkers. good pull. 

[Le duke]

that's bonkers. good pull. 

The interesting thing is that WS has Nebraska predicted to beat them at 141, 149 AND 184.

I could see Pinto trying to YOLO-throw Truax but I think Truax gets him 9 out of 10 or more. Pinto has some pretty bad losses whereas Truax is 1-1 against the returning finalist at the weigh. Also, isn’t Pinto rumored to be dropping to 174?


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[1032004]

Cornell and Northern Iowa can come close

125 Ungar dec Howard 3-0

133 Vito maj Nagao 7-0

141 Cornella dec Bartlett 10-0 (upset)

149 Shapiro dec Van Ness 13-0

157 Haines maj Handlovic 13-4

165 Mesenbrink dec Ramirez 13-7

174 Starocci dec Foca 13-10

184 Keckeisen dec Truax 16-10

197 Brooks dec Cardenas 16-13

285 Kerk dec Fernandes 16-16

 

edit:  changed my pick, lol

Edited August 22, 2023 by 1032004

[Le duke]

Cornell and Northern Iowa can come close
125 Ungar dec Howard 3-0
133 Vito maj Nagao 7-0
141 Cornella dec Bartlett 10-0 (upset)
149 Shapiro dec Van Ness 13-0
157 Haines maj Handlovic 13-4
165 Mesenbrink dec Ramirez 13-7
174 Starocci dec Foca 13-10
184 Keckeisen dec Truax 16-10
197 Brooks dec Cardenas 16-13
285 Kerk dec Fernandes 16-16
 
edit:  changed my pick, lol

Cornella is 5-8 against common opponents, whereas Bartlett is 12-0. I don’t think Cornella would score an offensive point on that match.

I could see Brooks putting an MD on Cardenas, too.

That said, good picks.


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[flyingcement]

Cornell and Ohio State 

125: Ungar dec Howard 3-0

133: Vito major Nagao 7-0

141: Mendez dec Bartlett 10-0

149: Meyer Shapiro dec Shayne Van Ness 13-0

157: Sammy Sasso dec Levi Haines 16-0

165: Mitchell Mesenbrink dec Julian Ramirez 16-3

174: Carter Starocci dec Chris Foca 16-6

184: Bernie Truax dec Jon Loew 16-9

197: Aaron Brooks dec Jacob Cardenas 16-12

285: Nick Feldman dec Greg Kerkvliet 19-12

 

[1032004]

19 minutes ago, Le duke said:

 

Cornella is 5-8 against common opponents, whereas Bartlett is 12-0. I don’t think Cornella would score an offensive point on that match.

I could see Brooks putting an MD on Cardenas, too.

That said, good picks.


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Yeah Cornella is the big upset there, the rest are pretty realistic and some may even pick Ramirez over Mesenbrink but I certainly wouldn’t.

My other option instead of UNI is Northern Colorado to get the win at 141, then throw out Baylor Fernandes at 165 and hope he wins by injury default.

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

6 hours ago, flyingcement said:

Cornell and Ohio State 

125: Ungar dec Howard 3-0

133: Vito major Nagao 7-0

141: Mendez dec Bartlett 10-0

149: Meyer Shapiro dec Shayne Van Ness 13-0

157: Sammy Sasso dec Levi Haines 16-0

165: Mitchell Mesenbrink dec Julian Ramirez 16-3

174: Carter Starocci dec Chris Foca 16-6

184: Bernie Truax dec Jon Loew 16-9

197: Aaron Brooks dec Jacob Cardenas 16-12

285: Nick Feldman dec Greg Kerkvliet 19-12

 

Feldman over Kerkvliet?

[Idaho]

7 hours ago, flyingcement said:

Cornell and Ohio State 

125: Ungar dec Howard 3-0

133: Vito major Nagao 7-0

141: Mendez dec Bartlett 10-0

149: Meyer Shapiro dec Shayne Van Ness 13-0

157: Sammy Sasso dec Levi Haines 16-0

165: Mitchell Mesenbrink dec Julian Ramirez 16-3

174: Carter Starocci dec Chris Foca 16-6

184: Bernie Truax dec Jon Loew 16-9

197: Aaron Brooks dec Jacob Cardenas 16-12

285: Nick Feldman dec Greg Kerkvliet 19-12

 

I don't see 141, 149 or Hwt happening  based on Iowa odds. 

[PortaJohn]

7 hours ago, flyingcement said:

285: Nick Feldman dec Greg Kerkvliet 19-12

I'm excited to beat against you on this one.  What are you offering?

[steamboat_charlie]

Michigan / Nebraska would have a decent chance. Fairly even matchup with upset potential where they're underdogs.  Could go something like this:

125) DeAugustino dec. Howard    3-0 
133) Cannon dec. Nagao    6-0 -- Tossup, Cannon beat Nagao last year
141) Hardy dec. Bartlett    9-0 -- Tossup, Hardy beat Bartlett last year
149) Lovett dec. Van Ness    12-0 -- Tossup, I'd favor Lovett
157) Haines dec. Robb    12-3 -- Haines favored, Robb has some chance
165) Amine dec. Facundo/Mesenbrink   15-3 -- Facundo has a win over Amine in TB, definitely could win again but Amine favored for now
174) Starocci dec. Griffith    15-6 -- Griffith is one of the only guys with the skill level to potentially challenge Starocci
184) Truax dec. Pinto    15-9 -- Wrestlestat actually favors Pinto, Truax more likely IMO but wouldn't be a shocker of an upset
197) Brooks dec. Allred    15-12
285) Kerkvliet dec. Davison   15-15

You could make a similar squad out of Cornell/Nebraska, and I guess rely on Vito majoring Nagao to win by 1 pt (which would be tough), but you'd weaken your 165, 174, and 285 at the same time, and may give up bonus there.

 

[ionel]

Ok ... so are there 3 teams out there that would be a lock to beat them and is there more than one unique (can use a team only once) 3 team combo that could do it?  

[Gus]

27 minutes ago, ionel said:

Ok ... so are there 3 teams out there that would be a lock to beat them and is there more than one unique (can use a team only once) 3 team combo that could do it?  

3 Team Combo: Cornell/ Mizzou / Iowa

125 Ayala dec Howard 3-0

133 Vito dec Nagao 6-0

141 Woods dec Bartlett 9-0 

149 Shapiro dec Van Ness 12-0

157 Haines dec Franek 12-3

165 O'Toole dec Mesenbrink 15-3

174 Starocci dec Foca 15-6

184 Keckeisen dec Truax 18-6

197 Brooks dec Elam 18-9

285 Kerk dec Elam 18-12

[steamboat_charlie]

9 minutes ago, ionel said:

Ok ... so are there 3 teams out there that would be a lock to beat them and is there more than one unique (can use a team only once) 3 team combo that could do it?  

At some point this just becomes a math problem.  PSU is a lock to win every theoretical matchup at 174, 197, and 285.  To beat them your third team needs to be someone that can win at 157 or 184.  

You could pair Northern Iowa with Cornell and Nebraska, or Michigan and Nebraska to get a 6-4 theoretical win.  You could also throw Ohio State in there and say Sasso beats Haines (ignoring present circumstances).  

All of this just underlines what we already know, this PSU team is likely to be historically great, barring injuries or other unforeseen circumstances.

Even combining 3 teams, all of these duals are close.  Imagine Howard comes back and is mid-AA quality.  Then Mesenbrink forces his way into the lineup and is a title challenger right away.  And Truax is even better down at 184 and runs away with a relatively weak weight?  At that point, there would be no combination that could beat them.  I shutter to even imagine such a thing.  Cael fiddles with powers he does not fully understand.  They are an unholy creation.  A Death Star.  And they must be destroyed, before it's too late...

[nhs67]

I am going to go with Cornell and Mizzou in a dual.  Here is what I have, using wrestlestat where applicable.

125

Surtin over Howard via DEC 9-5

Team Bread 3-0

133

Arujao over Nagao via DEC 7-5

Team Bread 6-0

141

Bartlett over Cornella via DEC 4-3

Team Bread 6-3

149

Van Ness over Mauller via DEC 6-5

Tied 6-6

157

BUMP-MASTER SUPREMO
Shapiro over Haines via DEC 12-6

Team Bread 9-6

165

Facundo over Ramirez via DEC 7-6

Tied 9-9

174

BUMP-MASTER SUPREMO V2.0
O'Toole over Stalrocci via DEC 6-5

Team Bread 12-9

184

BUMP-MASTER SUPREMO V3.0
Foca over Truax via DEC 8-5

Team Bread 15-9

197

BUMP-MASTER SUPREMO V4.0
Brooks over Elam via DEC 6-5

Team Bread 15-12

285

Kerkvliet over Elam via DEC 6-4

Tied 15-15

It comes down to TOTAL MATCH POINTS, in which Team Bread outscores Team Filling 65 - 55.

[nhs67]

I will take my coach of the year honors via PayPal or Zelle.  Thank you.

[steamboat_charlie]

12 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

165

Facundo over Ramirez via DEC 7-6

I mean, Ramirez mauled Facundo at NCAAs.  I know Facundo wasn't 100%, but you might as well predict Ramirez beats him again.  Wrestlestat's algo likes Facundo because of common opponents (namely Ramirez having lost to Kharchla 3 times), but I think it's a case of the model not matching reality.  

[nhs67]

13 minutes ago, steamboat_charlie said:

I mean, Ramirez mauled Facundo at NCAAs.  I know Facundo wasn't 100%, but you might as well predict Ramirez beats him again.  Wrestlestat's algo likes Facundo because of common opponents (namely Ramirez having lost to Kharchla 3 times), but I think it's a case of the model not matching reality.  

That's all fine and well.  I never said I agreed.  I simply said I was using Wrestlestat and I did with success find a team, Team Bread, that would beat Penn State, Team Filling.  It was on criteria, but a win is a win.

The 49ers beat Broncos 55-10 in SB 24 and the Giants beat the Bills 20-19 in SB 25.  Their trophies don't say "These guys only won by 1 so they are lesser of world champs than the last guys who won."

[steamboat_charlie]

15 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

That's all fine and well.  I never said I agreed.  I simply said I was using Wrestlestat and I did with success find a team, Team Bread, that would beat Penn State, Team Filling.  It was on criteria, but a win is a win.

The 49ers beat Broncos 55-10 in SB 24 and the Giants beat the Bills 20-19 in SB 25.  Their trophies don't say "These guys only won by 1 so they are lesser of world champs than the last guys who won."

As you said, that's all fine and well--but the 49ers actually beat the Broncos, and the Giants actually beat the Bills, whereas this is a purely hypothetical exercise, where the margin of error is still somewhat relevant.  

[nhs67]

15 minutes ago, steamboat_charlie said:

As you said, that's all fine and well--but the 49ers actually beat the Broncos, and the Giants actually beat the Bills, whereas this is a purely hypothetical exercise, where the margin of error is still somewhat relevant.  

That is a fair assessment.

[ionel]

2 hours ago, steamboat_charlie said:

At some point this just becomes a math problem.  PSU is a lock to win every theoretical matchup at 174, 197, and 285.  To beat them your third team needs to be someone that can win at 157 or 184.  

You could pair Northern Iowa with Cornell and Nebraska, or Michigan and Nebraska to get a 6-4 theoretical win.  You could also throw Ohio State in there and say Sasso beats Haines (ignoring present circumstances).  

All of this just underlines what we already know, this PSU team is likely to be historically great, barring injuries or other unforeseen circumstances.

Even combining 3 teams, all of these duals are close.  Imagine Howard comes back and is mid-AA quality.  Then Mesenbrink forces his way into the lineup and is a title challenger right away.  And Truax is even better down at 184 and runs away with a relatively weak weight?  At that point, there would be no combination that could beat them.  I shutter to even imagine such a thing.  Cael fiddles with powers he does not fully understand.  They are an unholy creation.  A Death Star.  And they must be destroyed, before it's too late...

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

1 hour ago, steamboat_charlie said:

As you said, that's all fine and well--but the 49ers actually beat the Broncos, and the Giants actually beat the Bills, whereas this is a purely hypothetical exercise, where the margin of error is still somewhat relevant.  

The Bills actually beat the Giants at Giants stadium that year with Phil Simms playing.  

They lost at a neutral field with Simms backup, Hostetler playing.  Hostetler was more mobile, however, proving to be a major problem for the Bills' pass rush.

[ionel]

2 hours ago, Gus said:

3 Team Combo: Cornell/ Mizzou / Iowa

125 Ayala dec Howard 3-0

133 Vito dec Nagao 6-0

141 Woods dec Bartlett 9-0 

149 Shapiro dec Van Ness 12-0

157 Haines dec Franek 12-3

165 O'Toole dec Mesenbrink 15-3

174 Starocci dec Foca 15-6

184 Keckeisen dec Truax 18-6

197 Brooks dec Elam 18-9

285 Kerk dec Elam 18-12

But its close and are you sure The Professor can't figure out a way, what if Messenbrink beats O'Toole?  Also now that you've used up Cornell, Mizzou & Iowa  is there another 3 team combo that can do it?

[Lipdrag]

I love this topic and am troubled by the implications of such dominance.  I don't know what the answer is.  Professional and college sports have had to address non-competitive dominance scenarios in the past (salary caps, scholarship limits, etc.) but none seem to apply to NCAA wrestling very well.

Congrats to NHS for his make-believe coach of the year win on this make-believe topic.  And even more so for channeling his inner IlliniWrestlingBlog in the wit and wisdom of his post.

Edited August 22, 2023 by Lipdrag