End of Iowa’s finalist streak?

[Packard]

Watched Iowa vs Ohio State and Iowa State and left both match unimpressed. Do they have anybody that looks like a finalists? 184 may not be the toughest, but certainly enough to keep Angelo out. Caliendo maybe? But that looks tough as well. 

[flyingcement]

Caliendo and Ferrari have the best chances of being finalists.

Caliendo has two matches with Mesenbrink left - one dual and one at conferences.  

Iowa also has a rematch dual at the end of the year vs Oklahoma State which means he draws Lockett again.  

I could see a scenario where Mesenbrink takes both from Caliendo, Caliendo equalizes with Lockett.  But that would be Lockett's only loss, giving him the 2 seed.  Mesenbrink would be one, and Caliendo 3.  165 finalist will likely come down to Lockett vs Caliendo in the semis at nationals.  

Ferrari vs McEnelly vs Sinclair seems pretty even but I personally favor Sinclair

[GV4444]

Agree Caliendo and Ferrari have the best shot, but you never know.   In 2022 Eierman, Marinelli, and Kemerer were the best bets to reach the final, but it Jacob Warner who saved the day by reaching the finals to keep the streak alive.  Seems like fewer dark horses this year, maybe Peterson, Kennedy, or Endeme.

 

[NM1965]

5 minutes ago, GV4444 said:

Agree Caliendo and Ferrari have the best shot, but you never know.   In 2022 Eierman, Marinelli, and Kemerer were the best bets to reach the final, but it Jacob Warner who saved the day by reaching the finals to keep the streak alive.  Seems like fewer dark horses this year, maybe Peterson, Kennedy, or Endeme.

 

Caliendo would be a lock for the finals if not for Lockett. You have to figure a freshman will improve more over the course of the season than a senior, in general.  

I think Kennedy has a decent shot at making the finals. Ferrari has a chance, but I hate the way that kid wrestles and would rather see him wash out in R16. I still think Ayala has a fair chance at making the finals, he's tough and experienced. 

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

Mesenbrink Caliendo finals at 165 is a near lock

[ionel]

5 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Mesenbrink Caliendo finals at 165 is a near lock

Didn't Caliendo lose to a true freshman?

[Gus]

1 hour ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Mesenbrink Caliendo finals at 165 is a near lock

Lockett and Blaze are tough

[NM1965]

1 hour ago, ionel said:

Didn't Caliendo lose to a true freshman?

Lost to Lockett in a very Daton Fix type match. I figure Lockett will improve more over the season than Sr Caliendo will. I see Caliendo as an underdog to make the finals at this point. But Caliendo is a helluva wrestler, can't rule him out completely. 

Edited December 1, 2025 by NM1965

[RandolphTJones]

2 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Mesenbrink Caliendo finals at 165 is a near lock

Far from. Very far from. 

[11986]

random - the last time Iowa did not have a finalist Tom Brands lost in semis 1-0 to Kendall Cross and placed 4th. I think it was just Brands and Joe Melchiore in semis that year for them.  

[Rassling2]

2 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Mesenbrink Caliendo finals at 165 is a near lock

Nope 

[RandolphTJones]

It's very possible Lockett could get the 2 seed and Caliendo sees MM in the semis. 3rd seed could go to another conference winner like Bianchi or Brignola. 

[wrestlingfan22]

1 hour ago, Gus said:

Lockett and Blaze are tough

Blaze-Caliendo should happen at the Dual and B10s. Then maybe NCAAs again. Caliendo does not have a cakewalk to the finals

[CHROMEBIRD]

Caliendo for sure. Ferrari's close but controlled style feels like playing with fire imo and is more likely to bite him as a RSFR at Nationals than not. Ayala's still very dangerous in a loaded bracket and could make a run with a good draw and stays healthy. Kennedy? We'll see if he can stay on the bottom side of the bracket from Haines. If so, I like his chances.

[1032004]

I’d go something like

Angelo and Caliendo 40%

Ayala and Kennedy 20%

Endene and Peterson 10%

 

I think it will happen 
 

[Tyler]

 

8 hours ago, 1032004 said:

I’d go something like

Angelo and Caliendo 40%

Ayala and Kennedy 20%

Endene and Peterson 10%

 

I think it will happen 
 

Those percentages seem a little high. 

[Mr. PeanutButter]

14 hours ago, GV4444 said:

Agree Caliendo and Ferrari have the best shot, but you never know.   In 2022 Eierman, Marinelli, and Kemerer were the best bets to reach the final, but it Jacob Warner who saved the day by reaching the finals to keep the streak alive.  Seems like fewer dark horses this year, maybe Peterson, Kennedy, or Endeme.

 

I was thinking of that year when reading this thread. Imagine if, when all is said and done, it's Nasir freaking Bailey who preserves the streak.

[CHROMEBIRD]

Maybe it's just the contrast against guys like Ech and Mendez, but Bailey looks way undersized for the weight. Someone get that kid some Pokey Stix, stat

[Winners Circle]

On 12/2/2025 at 2:38 PM, CHROMEBIRD said:

Maybe it's just the contrast against guys like Ech and Mendez, but Bailey looks way undersized for the weight. Someone get that kid some Pokey Stix, stat

Vega looked considerably bigger as well. Same build (lanky), but Vega was way taller.

[fishbane]

On 12/1/2025 at 1:38 PM, 1032004 said:

I’d go something like

Angelo and Caliendo 40%

Ayala and Kennedy 20%

Endene and Peterson 10%

 

I think it will happen 
 

Assuming independence and that everyone else has a 0% chance of making the final this implies the chances of having 1 or more finalists this year is over 80%>

[ionel]

5 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Assuming independence and that everyone else has a 0% chance of making the final this implies the chances of having 1 or more finalists this year is over 80%>

I won't believe it till Wkn provides a chart.  

[flyingcement]

18 minutes ago, ionel said:

I won't believe it till Wkn provides a chart.  

[fishbane]

9 minutes ago, ionel said:

I won't believe it till Wkn provides a chart.  

Unfortunately I don't think he will be stopping by to check my math.

The probability that 1 or more Iowa wrestlers make the final is 1 minus the probability that no Iowa wrestlers make the final. He gave the probabilities for each of 6 wrestlers making the final.  The probability an individual doesn't make the final is 1 minus the probability that he quoted.  Assuming these are independent events you just multiply them together to get the overall probability.

P(1+finalist) = 1-P(0 finalists) = 1-(0.6*0.6*0.8*0.8*0.9*0.9*1*1*1*1) = 1-0.187 = 0.813

[Caveira]

On 12/1/2025 at 11:24 AM, Rassling2 said:

Nope