Is there a 4-timer out there?

[Winners Circle]

  On 9/23/2024 at 1:56 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

This season there are no returning wrestlers who have a chance to become a four-timer.*

The last time a season started without a returning wrestler who had a chance to become a four-timer was 2010. That was the season Kyle Dake started his epic run through four weights in four years.

Every year since there was at least one guy on a streak.

And how about 2022? We started that season with 7 returning wrestlers who had a shot at becoming four-timers. And three of them did.

* I am not including Ferrari until I am certain about the ORS he claims.

Freshmen and redshirt freshmen are on a three year run without a title.

Do any of the crop of freshmen or redshirt freshmen have a realistic shot at winning this season?

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Richie Figs?

***Disregard. I knew he won NCAAs in his first time wrestling in it, but forgot he sat behind Courtney a year.***

Edited November 14, 2024 by Winners Circle

[fishbane]

  On 11/14/2024 at 2:42 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

That was a conscience decision. Notice I do not have Keegan O'Toole on there for 2023 either. If Lewis or O'Toole had won four out of five (and not four in a row), I would have viewed them differently, and not in the same category as guys who won four in a row. Reasonable people could disagree.

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That's a good point as I would have included O'Toole in 2023 and missed that.  I think if Lewis had won 4 out of 5 NCAA tournaments I'd view that feat a little differently too, but still a 4xer.  It would be a similar to the difference in how I view Greg Jones and Earl McCready as 3x champs. 

Your explanation got me thinking about how infrequently 4xers and near 4xers wrestle 4 seasons in a row right out of high school or 4 straight years at all. Dake is the only person to win 4 straight years right out of high school.  Sanderson, Stieber, Brooks and Staroocci all won 4 consecutive years, but not the 4 immediately following high school graduation.

This got me thinking about that standout 2022 year again. Should Lee and Diakomihalis be counted this year?  Diakomihalis didn't wrestle at all that season as the Ivies sat out winter sports due to COVID.  He won his 4th the following year in 2023.  Lee wrestled something like two matches and then shut it down taking an injury redshirt.  He lost at NCAAs in 2023.  Only 4 of those 7 guys actually wrestled at NCAAs in 2022 and only 5 of the 7 used a year of eligibility in 2022 (Ferrari used a competition year).

If O'Toole and Lewis are viewed differently by you perhaps Ferrari should too.  He used a year of eligibility in 2022 and if successful will be the first to win 4 that failed to win NCAAs in a season where a year of eligibility was burned.  He was injured too late to take an injury redshirt in 2022.  This is very similar to Lewis in 2021 the only difference was Lewis's injury allowed him to compete albeit at a reduced capacity and Ferrari was not cleared to compete.

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 11/14/2024 at 4:51 PM, fishbane said:

That's a good point as I would have included O'Toole in 2023 and missed that.  I think if Lewis had won 4 out of 5 NCAA tournaments I'd view that feat a little differently too, but still a 4xer.  It would be a similar to the difference in how I view Greg Jones and Earl McCready as 3x champs. 

Your explanation got me thinking about how infrequently 4xers and near 4xers wrestle 4 seasons in a row right out of high school or 4 straight years at all. Dake is the only person to win 4 straight years right out of high school.  Sanderson, Stieber, Brooks and Staroocci all won 4 consecutive years, but not the 4 immediately following high school graduation.

This got me thinking about that standout 2022 year again. Should Lee and Diakomihalis be counted this year?  Diakomihalis didn't wrestle at all that season as the Ivies sat out winter sports due to COVID.  He won his 4th the following year in 2023.  Lee wrestled something like two matches and then shut it down taking an injury redshirt.  He lost at NCAAs in 2023.  Only 4 of those 7 guys actually wrestled at NCAAs in 2022 and only 5 of the 7 used a year of eligibility in 2022 (Ferrari used a competition year).

If O'Toole and Lewis are viewed differently by you perhaps Ferrari should too.  He used a year of eligibility in 2022 and if successful will be the first to win 4 that failed to win NCAAs in a season where a year of eligibility was burned.  He was injured too late to take an injury redshirt in 2022.  This is very similar to Lewis in 2021 the only difference was Lewis's injury allowed him to compete albeit at a reduced capacity and Ferrari was not cleared to compete.

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You are right. Ferrari should not be included in my definition of 100%ers. If he wins four he will be an 80%er.

[JimmyCinnabon]

  On 11/14/2024 at 4:22 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

there is at least one

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Well thank you. I didn't think you noticed. 

[ionel]

  On 11/14/2024 at 4:51 PM, fishbane said:

Your explanation got me thinking about how infrequently 4xers and near 4xers wrestle 4 seasons in a row right out of high school or 4 straight years at all. Dake is the only person to win 4 straight years right out of high school.  

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True but Smith coulda/shoulda/woulda been.  He won Fr, So, Jr then the probation year off and rsSr year.  I think it would've been easier for him to win true Sr year.  

[fishbane]

  On 11/14/2024 at 8:06 PM, ionel said:

True but Smith coulda/shoulda/woulda been.  He won Fr, So, Jr then the probation year off and rsSr year.  I think it would've been easier for him to win true Sr year.  

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In today's NCAA landscape the OSU infractions would likely not result in a post season ban or perhaps more accurately be totally unnecessary to begin with.

Diakomihalis could also fall into the coulda category too.  He won his first two years out of high school then sat out in 2020 for an Olympic redshirt and again in 2021 as the Ivies didn't participate.  Perhaps he wouldn't have wrestled even without the Ivy League's decision to focus on his Olympic goals.  Lewis reversing course and competing in 2021 after taking an Olympic redshirt in 2020 didn't work out for him.  He got injured and missed the trials all together.

Even what Smith actually accomplished 4 win 5 years immediately out of high school distinguishes him from some other 4xers.  Brooks and Diakomihalis only won 4 out of their first 6 years after high school and winning his first three years out of high school is second best behind Dake.

[scourge165]

Sinclair from Mizzou. Assuming he Wrestle's '84 and not '97 and he takes a RS(PK and Star is...asking a bit much) I think he could definitely win it next year.

He's so smooth, so slick and I doubt he walks around at 200. Maybe 195, so the cut to '84 would probably be plenty easy(he may even test for '65). 

But again, to repeat what I said in the Wrestle-off thread, he just looked like he was giving up way too much length at '97. q

Give the kid a year with O'Toole and the rest of that team and put him at '74 or '84(seems like '84 is...almost a given based on the last couple years) and I'd put money on him right now...for next year.

[Gus]

  On 11/15/2024 at 11:59 AM, scourge165 said:

Sinclair from Mizzou. Assuming he Wrestle's '84 and not '97 and he takes a RS(PK and Star is...asking a bit much) I think he could definitely win it next year.

He's so smooth, so slick and I doubt he walks around at 200. Maybe 195, so the cut to '84 would probably be plenty easy(he may even test for '65). 

But again, to repeat what I said in the Wrestle-off thread, he just looked like he was giving up way too much length at '97. q

Give the kid a year with O'Toole and the rest of that team and put him at '74 or '84(seems like '84 is...almost a given based on the last couple years) and I'd put money on him right now...for next year.

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The people that he would likely have to navigate to make that happen at 184: Rocco Welsh, Bennett Berge, Angelo Ferarri, Gabe Arnold, TJ Stewart, Max McEnelly and probably some others that I am forgetting. Sinclair is really good so maybe he could do it. Some tough young hammers in his weight range though. 

[MNRodent]

  On 11/15/2024 at 3:26 PM, Gus said:

The people that he would likely have to navigate to make that happen at 184: Rocco Welsh, Bennett Berge, Angelo Ferarri, Gabe Arnold, TJ Stewart, Max McEnelly and probably some others that I am forgetting. Sinclair is really good so maybe he could do it. Some tough young hammers in his weight range though. 

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Your list is what I was about to type (that Sinclair will have competition from).  I think Josh Barr will also be back down at this weight next year also.

[Gus]

  On 11/15/2024 at 3:35 PM, MNRodent said:

Your list is what I was about to type (that Sinclair will have competition from).  I think Josh Barr will also be back down at this weight next year also.

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Good call MNRodent. If not Barr, then he will have to deal with Zach Ryder who is another that I should have remembered. 

[fishbane]

Matt McDonough won as a redshirt freshman in 2010.  So he should be included with Dake for 2011

[Husker_Du]

Great stuff as always WKN.

do you know the last time we were on a streak of no freshmen champs anywhere near the one we're currently on?

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 11/15/2024 at 9:25 PM, Husker_Du said:

Great stuff as always WKN.

do you know the last time we were on a streak of no freshmen champs anywhere near the one we're currently on?

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After Dustin Schlatter won as a freshman in 2006 there was a three year dry spell (2007, 2008, 2009) before Dake came along.

Before that, between Mark Branch in 1994 and Cael Sanderson in 1999 there was a four year dry spell (1995, 1996, 1997, 1998).

The biggest gap, where freshmen were continuously eligible, was between Ed Banach and Matt Reiss in 1980 and Pat Smith in 1990.

[Husker_Du]

Matt Reiss is from the Lehigh Valley and is now an official.

i don't think he ever AA'd again after winning, did he?

[fishbane]

  On 11/15/2024 at 10:30 PM, Husker_Du said:

Matt Reiss is from the Lehigh Valley and is now an official.

i don't think he ever AA'd again after winning, did he?

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He was 8th as a sophomore in 1981.

[fishbane]

I wonder how much the extra COVID year had to do with the current drought?  The outlier year of 2022 with the most guys on a title streak was the year after everyone got a free year.  That probably shouldn't be too surprising.

The high school class of 2021 and after have had to wrestler, on average older, wrestlers than every past year.  Someone that graduated high school in 2021 and wrestled as a true freshman like Dean Hamiti would have a difficult time getting to the top immediately.

[Gus]

  On 11/15/2024 at 3:53 PM, Gus said:

Good call MNRodent. If not Barr, then he will have to deal with Zach Ryder who is another that I should have remembered. 

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  On 11/15/2024 at 3:35 PM, MNRodent said:

Your list is what I was about to type (that Sinclair will have competition from).  I think Josh Barr will also be back down at this weight next year also.

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I light of the fact that Sinclair lost to Andy Smith tonight it might be time to pump the breaks on undefeated 4x NCAA Champ. 

[scourge165]

  On 11/16/2024 at 4:30 AM, Gus said:

I light of the fact that Sinclair lost to Andy Smith tonight it might be time to pump the breaks on undefeated 4x NCAA Champ. 

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Nah...I stand by it...as an '84 pounder. He's giving up too much size and length at '97. Plus...it's not like Smith is some no namer. He was in the Rd of 12 last year. 

At '84 though, I think he's got a chance to do great things and dominate the weight the next 4 years. I'm not pausing it because of an early November Match as a True Freshman. Cael lost to Paul Jenn his freshman year and I think we'll look back similarly on this.  

[fishbane]

  On 11/16/2024 at 6:01 AM, scourge165 said:

Nah...I stand by it...as an '84 pounder. He's giving up too much size and length at '97. Plus...it's not like Smith is some no namer. He was in the Rd of 12 last year. 

At '84 though, I think he's got a chance to do great things and dominate the weight the next 4 years. I'm not pausing it because of an early November Match as a True Freshman. Cael lost to Paul Jenn his freshman year and I think we'll look back similarly on this.  

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Carter Starocci lost his first official NCAA match...

[scourge165]

  On 11/16/2024 at 6:38 AM, fishbane said:

Carter Starocci lost his first official NCAA match...

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And Washington was 10-7 the year prior and never made the blood round!

 

There is a little asterisk to my "undefeated" prediction. A-I think it's...unlikely. I mean, 4 NCs is also unlikely, even for guys who win it as Freshmen, but B-I did say the NEXT 4 years. The 4 years he's the full-time starter and competing. 

 

[MidwestMan]

  On 11/16/2024 at 6:01 AM, scourge165 said:

Nah...I stand by it...as an '84 pounder. He's giving up too much size and length at '97. Plus...it's not like Smith is some no namer. He was in the Rd of 12 last year. 

At '84 though, I think he's got a chance to do great things and dominate the weight the next 4 years. I'm not pausing it because of an early November Match as a True Freshman. Cael lost to Paul Jenn his freshman year and I think we'll look back similarly on this.  

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My only concern for Sinclair is being in a program that, in my opinion, may do a decent job of recruiting, but I'm leery of how well it further develops wrestlers.  Do they totally reach their potential under this staff, or do they come in with talent developed in a great HS or club and become stagnant?  Look at the track record the past 5 years, especially last year.  JMHO.

[pokemonster]

Love these kinda threads, good stuff @Wrestleknownothing!

[BIGTENFANBOY]

  On 9/23/2024 at 8:04 PM, Truzzcat said:

I think he will grow into 133 at some point but fair point since 2010 I think Mcdonough,Delgado,Spencer are the only guys to win 2 or more.

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Stephen Abas won 3 titles at 118/125.

He went 4, 1, 1, ORS, 1.

Know you qualified your post with since 2010.

[Gus]

  On 11/16/2024 at 6:01 AM, scourge165 said:

Nah...I stand by it...as an '84 pounder. He's giving up too much size and length at '97. Plus...it's not like Smith is some no namer. He was in the Rd of 12 last year. 

At '84 though, I think he's got a chance to do great things and dominate the weight the next 4 years. I'm not pausing it because of an early November Match as a True Freshman. Cael lost to Paul Jenn his freshman year and I think we'll look back similarly on this.  

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Good win for Aedon tonight. 

[flyingcement]

Most likely four timer at each weight in my own opinion (with some of them being particularly unlikely):

125: Luke Lilledahl

133: Ben Davino

141: Aden Valencia

149: Kannon Webster

157: Grigor Cholakyan

165: Braeden Scoles

174: Lorenzo Norman

184: Angelo Ferrari

197: Cody Merrill

285: Jim Mullen