how many medals do we nab in Paris

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

5 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

at worlds last year I think he got quite a few turns he would bar guys and then bring them up and kinda suple/tilt them.

You might be right! I just remember it being a knock in the past, my apologies to all if he has improved his top game.

[nhs67]

4 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

He was sucked out for 92kg 

he beats Snyder 6-3 in the same tournament Snyder beat Ghasempour 4-0 I think it's safe to assume he's beating Ghasempour since he's their rep right now and I would have ghasempour at least as a medal threat. Being 22 i'm also assuming he's still getting better fairly rapidly.

I don't buy it.  One tournament does not a favorite make you.

You have a lot returning at 97 KG as it is before you add him.  A better chance he doesn't medal.

I would sig bet that he has a better chance to not medal than win Gold.

Edit:  To be clear, you are saying your favorite at 97 KG lost to our 86 KG #4 at 92 KG.

Edited May 15, 2024 by nhs67

[NM1965]

I like our chances to medal at all weights in men's FS. Now watch the US go out and fall on it's face. 

[Truzzcat]

2 hours ago, nhs67 said:

I don't buy it.  One tournament does not a favorite make you.

You have a lot returning at 97 KG as it is before you add him.  A better chance he doesn't medal.

I would sig bet that he has a better chance to not medal than win Gold.

Edit:  To be clear, you are saying your favorite at 97 KG lost to our 86 KG #4 at 92 KG.

I shall sig bet with you and yes my fav to win the weight lost to our #4 86kg rep at 92 but also has a win over our rep and 8x medalist at 97 and is a 2x u23 world champ at 97kg. He also beat Zahid earlier that year the only other time he wrestled 92kg but then missed weight I Believe on day 2 im not sure if that was scratch or 2kg. I think a big reason he lost to zahid was the cut hes been a 97kg guy since 2021 when he won his first u23's at 18 or 19.

I should have not phrased it as hes my favorite he is certainly not the favorite to win the weight he is however my pick and if they do betting lines again I will be betting him heavily.

Edited May 15, 2024 by Truzzcat

[Truzzcat]

2 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

You might be right! I just remember it being a knock in the past, my apologies to all if he has improved his top game.

I 100% agree with you that his traditional top game is not good I truly don't know the last time I saw him hit a lace or a gut.

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

11 hours ago, mspart said:

Well, when you are the bad draw, that should be a medal.   I count that as 57 and 74.  97 maybe.   Snyder will be a bad draw up until the semis I think.   But he has always medalled so he should figure out a way this time as well.   I don't know about Brooks.   Conceivably he is the bad draw.   65 is a disaster of a weight that anything can and usually does happen.   Zain is a bad draw, but there are some hammers in there.   125 Mason is a bad draw until the semis I think.   He medalled last year and should do so again.   I can see 6 medals, but 4 is probably more realistic.   But I have high hopes for this team.   Team USA is the hammer this year.  

mspart

 

I agree with all of this. Just wanted to add some stuff. 

The worst case scenario for Zain is the "Metcalf Effect." He has a super-tough opponent in round one or round two, loses a really close match but tires out his opponent so that he has no gas tank or is injured in his next match. I also think he is a bad draw, but in the case of Brent Metcalf, that was detrimental sometimes to Brent Metcalf. I wish there was 70 kg at the Olympics, but since there's not one, I'll take a 70 kg fellow at 65 kg if he has shown that he can manage the cut. The comparison would be to Micic, who looked like a 65 kg wrestler versus his 57 kg opponents at last year's World Championships. Get past those first couple of rounds ... eat ... rehydrate ... rest ... dominate!

As for Brooks, I like your word "conceivably." We just don't know yet. 

The ranking points have Mason in a third-seed position at heavyweight. The three guys that could pose major problems are ranked first, second and fourth. The fact that the top four main threats (which includes Mason) should be evenly divided in the bracket means, to me at least, Parris is a very, very (I'm weighing in my mind another "very" here) likely medalist. He can lose to other heavyweights, but he has to be a massive favorite against them. 

I wrote earlier that Mason had an 85% chance to medal. I might have to bump that up a couple of percentage points. I think I've talked myself into that! 

And yes, "Team USA is the hammer this year." Cheers!

 

[nhs67]

8 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

I shall sig bet with you and yes my fav to win the weight lost to our #4 86kg rep at 92 but also has a win over our rep and 8x medalist at 97 and is a 2x u23 world champ at 97kg. He also beat Zahid earlier that year the only other time he wrestled 92kg but then missed weight I Believe on day 2 im not sure if that was scratch or 2kg. I think a big reason he lost to zahid was the cut hes been a 97kg guy since 2021 when he won his first u23's at 18 or 19.

I should have not phrased it as hes my favorite he is certainly not the favorite to win the weight he is however my pick and if they do betting lines again I will be betting him heavily.

He forfeited to Israel because that is what Iran does.

Cool bet.

Please be gentle with me if you win.

I am open to it being Sig or Pic, to be clear - you choose when (if? ) it happens).

The bet is now clear, but to clarify for others...

Azarpira wins Gold - You win and choose either my Sig or my Pic.

Azarpira does not win a medal - I win and choose your Sig.

[D3 for LU]

2 hours ago, nhs67 said:

He forfeited to Israel because that is what Iran does.

Cool bet.

Please be gentle with me if you win.

I am open to it being Sig or Pic, to be clear - you choose when (if? ) it happens).

The bet is now clear, but to clarify for others...

Azarpira wins Gold - You win and choose either my Sig or my Pic.

Azarpira does not win a medal - I win and choose your Sig.

D3

[MPhillips]

[Truzzcat]

3 hours ago, nhs67 said:

He forfeited to Israel because that is what Iran does.

Cool bet.

Please be gentle with me if you win.

I am open to it being Sig or Pic, to be clear - you choose when (if? ) it happens).

The bet is now clear, but to clarify for others...

Azarpira wins Gold - You win and choose either my Sig or my Pic.

Azarpira does not win a medal - I win and choose your Sig.

I remember I think 2 years ago at worlds little yazdani forfeited to finesilver has that ever happened at the olympics? I cannot imagine spending you entire life training for something that happens every 4 years and having to ff to a guy that you would likely tech.

also look forward to the bet he will probably lose r1 now :[

[ionel]

3 hours ago, nhs67 said:

He forfeited to Israel because that is what Iran does.

Cool bet.

Please be gentle with me if you win.

I am open to it being Sig or Pic, to be clear - you choose when (if? ) it happens).

The bet is now clear, but to clarify for others...

Azarpira wins Gold - You win and choose either my Sig or my Pic.

Azarpira does not win a medal - I win and choose your Sig.

... be careful there, look what happened to @flyingcement ...  

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

26 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

I remember I think 2 years ago at worlds little yazdani forfeited to finesilver has that ever happened at the olympics? I cannot imagine spending you entire life training for something that happens every 4 years and having to ff to a guy that you would likely tech.

also look forward to the bet he will probably lose r1 now :[

It has happened in Judo, too.  On at least one occasion the Iranian disregarded the policy and fought the Israeli.  He has not returned home. 

[ionel]

4 hours ago, nhs67 said:

He forfeited to Israel because that is what Iran does.

Cool bet.

Please be gentle with me if you win.

I am open to it being Sig or Pic, to be clear - you choose when (if? ) it happens).

The bet is now clear, but to clarify for others...

Azarpira wins Gold - You win and choose either my Sig or my Pic.

Azarpira does not win a medal - I win and choose your Sig.

 

1 hour ago, D3 for LU said:

D3

Let there be frogs:

[nhs67]

36 minutes ago, ionel said:

... be careful there, look what happened to @flyingcement ...  

I could only hope for something so awesome.

[maligned]

2 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

I remember I think 2 years ago at worlds little yazdani forfeited to finesilver has that ever happened at the olympics? I cannot imagine spending you entire life training for something that happens every 4 years and having to ff to a guy that you would likely tech.

also look forward to the bet he will probably lose r1 now :[

I think there are only 4 of these boycott wrestling forfeitures on record and none at the Olympics. Iran's sporting leadership received a firm reprimand by the IOC chairman in 2019 that any continued forfeitures would result in a banning of Iran from all sports at the Olympics. Iranian media based outside Iran reported in the lead-up to the 2020/21 Games that Iran's internal adjusted plan was simply not to send any athlete that had an Israeli in their group or bracket in whichever sport, "even if it's Hassan Yazdani." No forfeits or protest non-appearances happened at the Games, but the policy obviously continued with the little Yazdani forfeiture to Finesilver in 2022.

Israel didn't manage to qualify any wrestlers for the 2024 Games.

Edited May 15, 2024 by maligned

[maligned]

2 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

I remember I think 2 years ago at worlds little yazdani forfeited to finesilver has that ever happened at the olympics? I cannot imagine spending you entire life training for something that happens every 4 years and having to ff to a guy that you would likely tech.

also look forward to the bet he will probably lose r1 now :[

To add to the above info: Israel hasn't had a male wrestler at the Olympics since 3 greco athletes in 2000 and 2004. In 2000, they didn't qualify athletes in the same weights. In 2004, they both took second in close losses in their pools or they would have faced each other in Greco 84kg. No way to know if the Iranian took his pool loss on purpose.

[1032004]

8 hours ago, maligned said:

I think there are only 4 of these boycott wrestling forfeitures on record and none at the Olympics. Iran's sporting leadership received a firm reprimand by the IOC chairman in 2019 that any continued forfeitures would result in a banning of Iran from all sports at the Olympics.

Could they do the 1 second injury default?

[Eagle26]

I’m going to say we get 10 medals between the three styles

[mspart]

I feel like that is not overly optimistic.    Doable.   If MFS does as thought, that is 4 for WFS and GR put together.   Very possible. 

mspart

[GrandOlm]

FS

All 6 are medalist level. 

None are the favorites for gold.

I think Spencer, Brooks, and Dake all have the level to potentially win gold. 

Snyder and Mason are a level below the gold crowd. Saudlaev has owned the rivalry with Snyder. Also landmines in Taz and whoever Iran sends. Mason lost to Geno and Masoumi. Both guys have been beaten soundly by Zare. I think Akgul would be a harder match for Mason than even Geno. 

I'm not sure about Zain. 65 has a lot of parity and I could see him bombing out or doing really well. 

Greco - 0 

None of them are medalist level imo. That doesn't necessarily mean that they can't get one, but it would require dream draws or completely anomalous performances. 

Jacobson - Nothing to suggest he is anything but at fill the bracket level.

Rau - He is 33 already and was never close to medaling. I think Aleskanjan, Saravi, whoever Russia sends, beat him comfortably. And he can take a loss from whoever in the field. 

Coon - I think Semenov and Lopez (if he feels like it) destroy him. Riza, Amin, should beat him comfortably. 

There are some really good wrestlers in Greco not going from Europe. The US is really fortunate they have pan ams to qualify. 

 

[Eagle26]

5 hours ago, mspart said:

I feel like that is not overly optimistic.    Doable.   If MFS does as thought, that is 4 for WFS and GR put together.   Very possible. 

mspart

Yes, I was trying to not be biased and give a legit prediction. However, I’m not sure it’s fair to say that MFS getting 6 medals is just doing “as thought”. I definitely agree that we are capable of all 6, but a lot has to go right for that to happen. I am thinking 4-6 medals for MFS, 4–6 for women’s, and 0 for GR

[PNWfan]

16 hours ago, GrandOlm said:

FS

All 6 are medalist level. 

None are the favorites for gold.

I think Spencer, Brooks, and Dake all have the level to potentially win gold. 

Snyder and Mason are a level below the gold crowd. Saudlaev has owned the rivalry with Snyder. Also landmines in Taz and whoever Iran sends. Mason lost to Geno and Masoumi. Both guys have been beaten soundly by Zare. I think Akgul would be a harder match for Mason than even Geno. 

I'm not sure about Zain. 65 has a lot of parity and I could see him bombing out or doing really well. 

Greco - 0 

None of them are medalist level imo. That doesn't necessarily mean that they can't get one, but it would require dream draws or completely anomalous performances. 

Jacobson - Nothing to suggest he is anything but at fill the bracket level.

Rau - He is 33 already and was never close to medaling. I think Aleskanjan, Saravi, whoever Russia sends, beat him comfortably. And he can take a loss from whoever in the field. 

Coon - I think Semenov and Lopez (if he feels like it) destroy him. Riza, Amin, should beat him comfortably. 

There are some really good wrestlers in Greco not going from Europe. The US is really fortunate they have pan ams to qualify. 

 

I could see a scenario where Coon wrestles his arse off and has things break right and ends up on the podium. Odds are against it, but if any of the three Greco guys medal, I'd expect it to be him. Would be nice to break the 16 year medal drought in Greco.

[Truzzcat]

I've discussed this match a lot realized its on uww's YouTube so thought I would post it.

[CHROMEBIRD]

Between our WW and MFS, which team do you all think will bring back more medals vs. more gold?

[Truzzcat]

On 5/31/2024 at 4:02 PM, CHROMEBIRD said:

Between our WW and MFS, which team do you all think will bring back more medals vs. more gold?

so I think both teams can go 6 for 6

However on the womans side at 57 you have Sakurai who seemed legitimately untouchable, then she lost to Feng at asians who got teched by Zhang at the Zegreb. I think if Helen gets a bad draw thats going to be a very tall mountain to climb to get a medal but I hold out hope. I do think Amit and Kennedy have as good or a better shot at gold compared to anyone on the mens side though.