how many medals do we nab in Paris

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

17 hours ago, nhs67 said:

To be clear:  Spencer Lee will also have to have had the best tournament of his life to win Gold.

This is about medalling, not winning gold, and I think 25% is about spot on.

It is convenient to forget that Spencer Lee had to come back to beat Wanhou Zou of China via 10-9 Decision.  The same Zou that got destroyed by the other semi-final winner Aman of India via 10-0 Tech a few months ago at Zagrab.  The same Zou that got destroyed at last years Worlds via 10-0 Tech to Arsen Hartyunyan of Armenia.  Two times in the last six or so months that someone teched him without allowing him to score a point on him... yet Spencer had to come back to win 10-9.

Chill out with the 'Guaranteed Gold' shit.

It is a lot like when deep OTT runs were predicted fow winners of Last Chance Qualifier.

These guys looked good against a field of wrestlers who had not yet qualified.  Keep that in mind. 

Could they do in August?  Yes, but both were fortunate to qualify the weight against a bunch of guys who won't be in Paris.

[D3 for LU]

I'm just going to put out a range of medals for the MFS at 4-6 for the US of A...

Go get'em tigers!

D3

[mspart]

I agree, 6 medals are possible and should be considered probable.  

mspart

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

It would be nice to see brackets, or at least seeds. Two hammers on the USA side of the bracket could be bad news. That is possible at 57, 65, 74 and 130. A lot of wrestlers build up points with the ranking series events that some don't attend, especially the Russians and Americans. 

For example, given the current UWW points at 57, you will likely have Micic and Abakarov on one side of the bracket--two past World Champs, while on the other side you've got Higuchi and Uguev--two more World Champs. Either way is going to be a hard path. 

According to the ranking points at 65, Ochir is at #24, and there would be a quarterfinal bout between #4 Muszukajev and #5 Nick Lee. Except, of course, it won't be Nick Lee but Zain Retherford at the weight with his dearth of ranking points at 65 kilos. Gulp. His first and second round matches--and his cut--will be key. 

At 74, you have Sidakov getting a break from the Russian army (and UWW) to wrestle at the Olympics. Dake at least will be on the other side of the bracket from him, but 74 is swarming with young athletes. The Greek stepped up in the last World Championships. At 22, he's likely only gotten better. There will be others. 

Based on a cursory look, here are my percentages to medal for the United States of America, the greatest nation in the history of Earth:

57 --  75%

65 --  65%

74 --  90%

86 --  85%

97 --  99%

130 -- 85% 

Total that up and you get 499, then divide by six and you have 4.99. I think the US is a lock for 4 medals, and is looking good for 5. My favorite wrestler in the lot is Snyder, but a close second is Zain. He can do it, but he can also get paired in an early round with a one or two seed, and that might not be so good. 

All in all, I think this team is extremely good. With Gable in the equation, it would be 5 medals, with the possibility for 6. I'd have him a 95-99% chance to medal. Thanks, steroid freak league WWE! 

I just wish Ellis Coleman and Kamal Bey were there, but I'll root for Joe Rau real hard on the Greco side. The Women are also nasty. I think they crush while the legend of Elor grows. 

[maligned]

3 hours ago, ILLINIWrestlingBlog said:

It would be nice to see brackets, or at least seeds. Two hammers on the USA side of the bracket could be bad news. That is possible at 57, 65, 74 and 130. A lot of wrestlers build up points with the ranking series events that some don't attend, especially the Russians and Americans. 

For example, given the current UWW points at 57, you will likely have Micic and Abakarov on one side of the bracket--two past World Champs, while on the other side you've got Higuchi and Uguev--two more World Champs. Either way is going to be a hard path. 

According to the ranking points at 65, Ochir is at #24, and there would be a quarterfinal bout between #4 Muszukajev and #5 Nick Lee. Except, of course, it won't be Nick Lee but Zain Retherford at the weight with his dearth of ranking points at 65 kilos. Gulp. His first and second round matches--and his cut--will be key. 

At 74, you have Sidakov getting a break from the Russian army (and UWW) to wrestle at the Olympics. Dake at least will be on the other side of the bracket from him, but 74 is swarming with young athletes. The Greek stepped up in the last World Championships. At 22, he's likely only gotten better. There will be others. 

Based on a cursory look, here are my percentages to medal for the United States of America, the greatest nation in the history of Earth:

57 --  75%

65 --  65%

74 --  90%

86 --  85%

97 --  99%

130 -- 85% 

Total that up and you get 499, then divide by six and you have 4.99. I think the US is a lock for 4 medals, and is looking good for 5. My favorite wrestler in the lot is Snyder, but a close second is Zain. He can do it, but he can also get paired in an early round with a one or two seed, and that might not be so good. 

All in all, I think this team is extremely good. With Gable in the equation, it would be 5 medals, with the possibility for 6. I'd have him a 95-99% chance to medal. Thanks, steroid freak league WWE! 

I just wish Ellis Coleman and Kamal Bey were there, but I'll root for Joe Rau real hard on the Greco side. The Women are also nasty. I think they crush while the legend of Elor grows. 

I'd take about 5-10 percentage points off of 57 (because of inexperience and struggles on defense against the ultra-fast guys), about 25 off of 65 (because of a loaded, loaded field with athletic types like Ochir that are Zain's kryptonite), and 10 off of 97 (because of bracketing). That would leave us at about 4.55 or 4.6. And I've said I think 4.5 would probably be a Vegas over/under for our medals. 

Snyder's bracketing situation is a little concerning. He and Tazhudinov will be separated, but the savvy Zhabrailov and Azarpira (who is young and rising and just beat Snyder recently) will be randomly drawn in because of lack of ranking points. That means there's a 23% chance he'll have both of those guys plus Magomedov on his side and a 77% chance he'll have at least one of them plus Magomedov. Because of that, the landmines are enough that I'd put his medal chances overall at 90% instead of 99%. 

[1032004]

On 5/12/2024 at 6:30 PM, Hammerlock3 said:

are sadulaev and sidakov out?

That was just to medal

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

2 hours ago, maligned said:

I'd take about 5-10 percentage points off of 57 (because of inexperience and struggles on defense against the ultra-fast guys), about 25 off of 65 (because of a loaded, loaded field with athletic types like Ochir that are Zain's kryptonite), and 10 off of 97 (because of bracketing). That would leave us at about 4.55 or 4.6. And I've said I think 4.5 would probably be a Vegas over/under for our medals. 

Snyder's bracketing situation is a little concerning. He and Tazhudinov will be separated, but the savvy Zhabrailov and Azarpira (who is young and rising and just beat Snyder recently) will be randomly drawn in because of lack of ranking points. That means there's a 23% chance he'll have both of those guys plus Magomedov on his side and a 77% chance he'll have at least one of them plus Magomedov. Because of that, the landmines are enough that I'd put his medal chances overall at 90% instead of 99%. 

I wouldn't take any percentage points off of 57 for inexperience. Perhaps gas tank, but certainly not inexperience. Age group wins, plus mentoring, plus USA training camp, plus they'll be flying in partners. He's been back at it for a year now. 

Zain showed me a lot at Last Chance. Of course he had a rough go to start the tournament as a 70 kg guy dropping down 11+ pounds. His first- and second-round matches will be key. It is such a tough weight, though, it's hard to say. But I'll be a homer for Zain and say he has a 65% chance to medal. I know the history at this weight, but Retherford is better and tougher than who we've sent in the recent past. 

Snyderman? He has medaled in 20 straight tournaments. He didn't medal at one Yaraguin, then medaled in 7 straight tournaments before that. Until he fails to medal, as young as he is, he's earned that 99%. Cheers! 

[maligned]

19 minutes ago, ILLINIWrestlingBlog said:

I wouldn't take any percentage points off of 57 for inexperience. Perhaps gas tank, but certainly not inexperience. Age group wins, plus mentoring, plus USA training camp, plus they'll be flying in partners. He's been back at it for a year now. 

Zain showed me a lot at Last Chance. Of course he had a rough go to start the tournament as a 70 kg guy dropping down 11+ pounds. His first- and second-round matches will be key. It is such a tough weight, though, it's hard to say. But I'll be a homer for Zain and say he has a 65% chance to medal. I know the history at this weight, but Retherford is better and tougher than who we've sent in the recent past. 

Snyderman? He has medaled in 20 straight tournaments. He didn't medal at one Yaraguin, then medaled in 7 straight tournaments before that. Until he fails to medal, as young as he is, he's earned that 99%. Cheers! 

All very valid points. "International senior-level" inexperience is what I meant for Lee. I think it's possible he'll face a few more dangerous style/athleticism learning moments like the Zou 4-pointer. Guys like Micic and Gilman have gotten those out of their system and will rarely be caught off guard like that.

[Truzzcat]

Snyders draw will be enormous as Maligned mentioned Azarpira will be drawn in and he may personally be my favorite to win the tournament he is very very good and seems to be getting better and better. If rankings points hold he will have Sadulaev in the quarter if he avoids Azarpira getting drawn in then if he gets past Sadulaev he will have the Azerbaijani most likely that hes beaten a few times. If he were to fall to Azarpira early I think Azarpira beats Sadulaev in his current form but then Snyder would have to beat Sadulaev on the back half. Ultimately as mentioned Snyder always medals and I have faith he can again, I also believe he could potentially win the entire thing but Azarpira is a serious landmine. For reference Snyder beat him 3-0 last year while Azarpira was a bit of an in between 92kg and 97 probably more of a true 97. Then this year when they wrestled Azarpira beat him 6-3 which is a pretty stark change especially given how stingy Snyder is,

[PNWfan]

57kg: Spencer Lee capable of winning gold if he is his best self. He will need to get through some land mines though. Uguev extremely tough and the defending Olympic Champ. Abakarov rock solid defense, may be a tough matchup for Lee. Micic's run at WC's last year cannot be ignored, even though I would favor Lee if they end up wrestling each other. Spencer has the par terre dominance which is the wild card and flip matches in his favor if he can get the TD. Hopefully he gets a decent draw that allows him to reach the semis at the very least.

65kg: Would be a surprise if Zain wins gold given depth at this weight. Amazoud, Tevanyan, Mamedov, Aliev, Tumur Ochir all tough outs. Ideally Zain draws into Rivera's quarter of the bracket. Zain certainly capable of medaling as his style can wear on guys during the course of a match. Also tough in par terre like Spencer Lee when he whips that cross-face and starts getting turns.

74kg: Expecting a Dake-Sidakov final, though there are some other Russians that could cause problems. Takatani also gave Dake a close match last year at World's. Would give Sidakov slight edge in final over Dake based on only H2H result, though I think Dake is our smartest wrestler and could see him making adjustments necessary to win gold.

86kg: Lots of unknowns at the moment. 1) Will Brooks be cleared to wrestle? If so, I think he gets gold. 2) Will Yazdani be repping Iran? Rumors of injury that could force Iran to go with a different rep, most likely Ghasempor. 3) Who will Russia send? Kadiev just won Russian nationals but Naifanov still a possibility. Dauletbekov is another formidable opponent that Brooks (or USA rep) may see early on.

97kg: Snyder a good bet to medal. Gold will be difficult given Tazhudinov’s quick rise. Also need to monitor the status of Sadulaev or whoever Russia ends up sending. Azarpira owns a recent win over Snyder, though I’d take Snyder in a rematch. If Snyder and Tazhudinov meet in gold medal match, Snyder will need to be very calculated with his attacks and try to use his pace to get deep into the match and wear down Taz.

125kg: Parris a decent bet to medal, gold would be a surprise. Mason had a good showing last year at WC’s getting bronze. The problem I see with his path to gold is that he narrowly lost to Petriashvili at WC’s who then got teched by Zare. He also lost to Masoumi at the Zagreb who then lost to Zare (again). Tough to see how Mason beats Zare again, though crazier things have happened.

[WrestlingRasta]

33 minutes ago, PNWfan said:

57kg: Spencer Lee capable of winning gold if he is his best self. He will need to get through some land mines though. Uguev extremely tough and the defending Olympic Champ. Abakarov rock solid defense, may be a tough matchup for Lee. Micic's run at WC's last year cannot be ignored, even though I would favor Lee if they end up wrestling each other. Spencer has the par terre dominance which is the wild card and flip matches in his favor if he can get the TD. Hopefully he gets a decent draw that allows him to reach the semis at the very least.

 

65kg: Would be a surprise if Zain wins gold given depth at this weight. Amazoud, Tevanyan, Mamedov, Aliev, Tumur Ochir all tough outs. Ideally Zain draws into Rivera's quarter of the bracket. Zain certainly capable of medaling as his style can wear on guys during the course of a match. Also tough in par terre like Spencer Lee when he whips that cross-face and starts getting turns.

 

74kg: Expecting a Dake-Sidakov final, though there are some other Russians that could cause problems. Takatani also gave Dake a close match last year at World's. Would give Sidakov slight edge in final over Dake based on only H2H result, though I think Dake is our smartest wrestler and could see him making adjustments necessary to win gold.

 

86kg: Lots of unknowns at the moment. 1) Will Brooks be cleared to wrestle? If so, I think he gets gold. 2) Will Yazdani be repping Iran? Rumors of injury that could force Iran to go with a different rep, most likely Ghasempor. 3) Who will Russia send? Kadiev just won Russian nationals but Naifanov still a possibility. Dauletbekov is another formidable opponent that Brooks (or USA rep) may see early on.

 

97kg: Snyder a good bet to medal. Gold will be difficult given Tazhudinov’s quick rise. Also need to monitor the status of Sadulaev or whoever Russia ends up sending. Azarpira owns a recent win over Snyder, though I’d take Snyder in a rematch. If Snyder and Tazhudinov meet in gold medal match, Snyder will need to be very calculated with his attacks and try to use his pace to get deep into the match and wear down Taz.

 

125kg: Parris a decent bet to medal, gold would be a surprise. Mason had a good showing last year at WC’s getting bronze. The problem I see with his path to gold is that he narrowly lost to Petriashvili at WC’s who then got teched by Zare. He also lost to Masoumi at the Zagreb who then lost to Zare (again). Tough to see how Mason beats Zare again, though crazier things have happened.

 

Just to illustrate how tough 65 is, all those names and you left out the reigning champ and (my) gold medal favorite.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

42 minutes ago, PNWfan said:

 

 

65kg: Would be a surprise if Zain wins gold given depth at this weight. Amazoud, Tevanyan, Mamedov, Aliev, Tumur Ochir all tough outs. Ideally Zain draws into Rivera's quarter of the bracket. Zain certainly capable of medaling as his style can wear on guys during the course of a match. Also tough in par terre like Spencer Lee when he whips that cross-face and starts getting turns.

 

 

 

I'm not sure if Zain, internationally, has been considered great on top.  Actually this was a criticism about him for a while.  Such a stud collegiately, but unable to get the turns in freestyle.

Yes, Zain got a couple turns this weekend, but it honestly would not surprise me if you told me that Lee has scored more points in international tournaments from top in the last six months (three tourneys: Farrell, Pan Am, Last Chance) than Zain has scored over his entire international career.  In fact, Zain's most noteworthy par terre attempt up until now may have been the lace where he pinned himself.

I am all in for Zain medaling, I just think he is going to have to score a majority of his points on his feet after wearing the opposition down.

Edited May 14 by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[PNWfan]

10 minutes ago, WrestlingRasta said:

Just to illustrate how tough 65 is, all those names and you left out the reigning champ and (my) gold medal favorite.

Yeah, I meant to put Moose in there, my mistake. He is certainly a gold medal contender. I actually think he is a decent matchup for Zain if Zain can take Moose deep into the match. We have seen his conditioning be a problem in the past, though he seemed to exercise some of those demons at last year's WC's.

[maligned]

1 hour ago, Truzzcat said:

Snyders draw will be enormous as Maligned mentioned Azarpira will be drawn in and he may personally be my favorite to win the tournament he is very very good and seems to be getting better and better. If rankings points hold he will have Sadulaev in the quarter if he avoids Azarpira getting drawn in then if he gets past Sadulaev he will have the Azerbaijani most likely that hes beaten a few times. If he were to fall to Azarpira early I think Azarpira beats Sadulaev in his current form but then Snyder would have to beat Sadulaev on the back half. Ultimately as mentioned Snyder always medals and I have faith he can again, I also believe he could potentially win the entire thing but Azarpira is a serious landmine. For reference Snyder beat him 3-0 last year while Azarpira was a bit of an in between 92kg and 97 probably more of a true 97. Then this year when they wrestled Azarpira beat him 6-3 which is a pretty stark change especially given how stingy Snyder is,

 

52 minutes ago, PNWfan said:

57kg: Spencer Lee capable of winning gold if he is his best self. He will need to get through some land mines though. Uguev extremely tough and the defending Olympic Champ. Abakarov rock solid defense, may be a tough matchup for Lee. Micic's run at WC's last year cannot be ignored, even though I would favor Lee if they end up wrestling each other. Spencer has the par terre dominance which is the wild card and flip matches in his favor if he can get the TD. Hopefully he gets a decent draw that allows him to reach the semis at the very least.

 

65kg: Would be a surprise if Zain wins gold given depth at this weight. Amazoud, Tevanyan, Mamedov, Aliev, Tumur Ochir all tough outs. Ideally Zain draws into Rivera's quarter of the bracket. Zain certainly capable of medaling as his style can wear on guys during the course of a match. Also tough in par terre like Spencer Lee when he whips that cross-face and starts getting turns.

 

74kg: Expecting a Dake-Sidakov final, though there are some other Russians that could cause problems. Takatani also gave Dake a close match last year at World's. Would give Sidakov slight edge in final over Dake based on only H2H result, though I think Dake is our smartest wrestler and could see him making adjustments necessary to win gold.

 

86kg: Lots of unknowns at the moment. 1) Will Brooks be cleared to wrestle? If so, I think he gets gold. 2) Will Yazdani be repping Iran? Rumors of injury that could force Iran to go with a different rep, most likely Ghasempor. 3) Who will Russia send? Kadiev just won Russian nationals but Naifanov still a possibility. Dauletbekov is another formidable opponent that Brooks (or USA rep) may see early on.

 

97kg: Snyder a good bet to medal. Gold will be difficult given Tazhudinov’s quick rise. Also need to monitor the status of Sadulaev or whoever Russia ends up sending. Azarpira owns a recent win over Snyder, though I’d take Snyder in a rematch. If Snyder and Tazhudinov meet in gold medal match, Snyder will need to be very calculated with his attacks and try to use his pace to get deep into the match and wear down Taz.

 

125kg: Parris a decent bet to medal, gold would be a surprise. Mason had a good showing last year at WC’s getting bronze. The problem I see with his path to gold is that he narrowly lost to Petriashvili at WC’s who then got teched by Zare. He also lost to Masoumi at the Zagreb who then lost to Zare (again). Tough to see how Mason beats Zare again, though crazier things have happened.

 

People are acting like Sadulaev is probably going. What haven't I heard? Or is it just assumptions of what Russian power/money will cause to happen?

[Truzzcat]

8 minutes ago, maligned said:

 

People are acting like Sadulaev is probably going. What haven't I heard? Or is it just assumptions of what Russian power/money will cause to happen?

The head of the Russian wrestling fed seems pretty confident he will be there.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

17 minutes ago, PNWfan said:

Yeah, I meant to put Moose in there, my mistake. He is certainly a gold medal contender. I actually think he is a decent matchup for Zain if Zain can take Moose deep into the match. We have seen his conditioning be a problem in the past, though he seemed to exercise some of those demons at last year's WC's.

Take a lesson from Nick Lee, hold off Moose early---do not try too hard to get your own scores.  Poor Nick.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

3 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

The head of the Russian wrestling fed seems pretty confident he will be there.

The same guy threatened to roll the tanks into Paris! Real tanks, not Abdulrashid Saduleev!

[MPhillips]

1 hour ago, PNWfan said:

 though he seemed to exercise some of those demons at last year's WC's.

He was a different wrestler at Worlds...

[Truzzcat]

1 hour ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

I'm not sure if Zain, internationally, has been considered great on top.  Actually this was a criticism about him for a while.  Such a stud collegiately, but unable to get the turns in freestyle.

Yes, Zain got a couple turns this weekend, but it honestly would not surprise me if you told me that Lee has scored more points in international tournaments from top in the last six months (three tourneys: Farrell, Pan Am, Last Chance) than Zain has scored over his entire international career.  In fact, Zain's most noteworthy par terre attempt up until now may have been the lace where he pinned himself.

I am all in for Zain medaling, I just think he is going to have to score a majority of his points on his feet after wearing the opposition down.

at worlds last year I think he got quite a few turns he would bar guys and then bring them up and kinda suple/tilt them.

[nhs67]

3 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

Snyders draw will be enormous as Maligned mentioned Azarpira will be drawn in and he may personally be my favorite to win the tournament he is very very good and seems to be getting better and better. If rankings points hold he will have Sadulaev in the quarter if he avoids Azarpira getting drawn in then if he gets past Sadulaev he will have the Azerbaijani most likely that hes beaten a few times. If he were to fall to Azarpira early I think Azarpira beats Sadulaev in his current form but then Snyder would have to beat Sadulaev on the back half. Ultimately as mentioned Snyder always medals and I have faith he can again, I also believe he could potentially win the entire thing but Azarpira is a serious landmine. For reference Snyder beat him 3-0 last year while Azarpira was a bit of an in between 92kg and 97 probably more of a true 97. Then this year when they wrestled Azarpira beat him 6-3 which is a pretty stark change especially given how stingy Snyder is,

This Azarpira is your favorite?

[CHROMEBIRD]

10 hours ago, ILLINIWrestlingBlog said:

I just wish Ellis Coleman and Kamal Bey were there, but I'll root for Joe Rau real hard on the Greco side. The Women are also nasty. I think they crush while the legend of Elor grows. 

Really looking forward to seeing the women get after Japan this summer. If Helen wins gold over Fujinami/Sakurai that would be one hell of a way to cap a career. 

[mspart]

This will be fun to keep on top of as it unfolds.   We all seem to have high expectations.   But then comes the actual competition.   I sure there will be upsets for us but on the whole, this looks like one of the best teams we have fielded in a long time.

mspart

[Truzzcat]

1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

This Azarpira is your favorite?

He was sucked out for 92kg 

he beats Snyder 6-3 in the same tournament Snyder beat Ghasempour 4-0 I think it's safe to assume he's beating Ghasempour since he's their rep right now and I would have ghasempour at least as a medal threat. Being 22 i'm also assuming he's still getting better fairly rapidly.

Edited May 14 by Truzzcat

[de4856]

Well it will depend on the draws our guys get, but I think we can come away with 6 medals. 

[mspart]

Well, when you are the bad draw, that should be a medal.   I count that as 57 and 74.  97 maybe.   Snyder will be a bad draw up until the semis I think.   But he has always medalled so he should figure out a way this time as well.   I don't know about Brooks.   Conceivably he is the bad draw.   65 is a disaster of a weight that anything can and usually does happen.   Zain is a bad draw, but there are some hammers in there.   125 Mason is a bad draw until the semis I think.   He medalled last year and should do so again.   I can see 6 medals, but 4 is probably more realistic.   But I have high hopes for this team.   Team USA is the hammer this year.  

mspart