2023 MFS Worlds Predictions

[oldschool]

Here are my MFS predictions for USA, Russia (AIN), and Iran (google sheet).

Would love to hear your guy's thoughts, especially if I'm missing anything glaring. Feel free to copy the sheet and play w/ the "Prediction" columns to see the predicted team results update on-the-fly.

btw this is the first time I'm going to be attending a senior world championships in person  Stoked to be able to travel to Serbia & root for our team!!

A few notes:

• My predictions assume that Russia is sending their MFS team, even though they didn't appear on the initial list of UWW entries.
   
• This is the same format as I did last year for the 2022 MFS Worlds USA vs Iran team race on the old forum.
   
• This'll change drastically once we get draws, especially w/ all the AIN wrestlers being randomly drawn in. I'm planning on keeping this sheet up-to-date as more info comes in.

A few questions:

• I'm guessing Russia / AIN isn't eligible for winning the team race, right? If not, it'll still be really interesting to follow the team race between USA & Russia since it seems pretty much dead even.
   
• Does anyone know if Iran is sending Ghasempour or Azarpira at 92kg? I thought Ghasempour was injured, and Azarpira is listed as their rep on Instagram, but Ghasempour is on the UWW entries list instead of Azarpira.

[de4856]

11 hours ago, oldschool said:

Here are my MFS predictions for USA, Russia (AIN), and Iran (google sheet).

It would be nice if Zain actually won a Gold

[bnwtwg]

11 hours ago, oldschool said:

Does anyone know if Iran is sending Ghasempour or Azarpira at 92kg? I thought Ghasempour was injured, and Azarpira is listed as their rep on Instagram, but Ghasempour is on the UWW entries list instead of Azarpira.

You have to go to Indiana to get that kind of information 

[MPhillips]

1 hour ago, de4856 said:

It would be nice if Zain actually won a Gold

It'll be nice if he gets a medal...

Edited August 27, 2023 by MPhillips

[bnwtwg]

It would be even nicer if Zane and Zain both medal

[Takuto_Otoguro]

Ghasempour is injured and not going. He tore something in one leg, was recovering, then tore the exact same thing in the other leg. Azarpira will go for Iran.

Edited August 27, 2023 by Takuto_Otoguro

[mspart]

That's a pain when you tear something in one leg and then tear that exact same something in the other.   The stars were not aligning apparently. 

mspart

[nhs67]

2 hours ago, mspart said:

That's a pain when you tear something in one leg and then tear that exact same something in the other.   The stars were not aligning apparently. 

mspart

Unfortunately it happens quite often due to over-compensation.  More so back in my days...

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

16 hours ago, nhs67 said:

Unfortunately it happens quite often due to over-compensation.  More so back in my days...

Double groin tear on Ghasempour.  What was he overcompensating for?

[nhs67]

22 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Double groin tear on Ghasempour.  What was he overcompensating for?

Is this a serious question?

It wasn't a question as to ethics or morals or ego or anything mental... it was an actual physical limitation exceeded.  When one tears, you must do more with the other.  Have you never had an injury?

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

6 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Is this a serious question?

It wasn't a question as to ethics or morals or ego or anything mental... it was an actual physical limitation exceeded.  When one tears, you must do more with the other.  Have you never had an injury?

 

31 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Double groin tear on Ghasempour.  What was he overcompensating for?

 

[bnwtwg]

23 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Double groin tear on Ghasempour.  What was he overcompensating for?

Serious or shitpost? Asking because a dual groin tear can quickly lead to becoming a slow burn career-ending kind of injury for adults due to the loss of elasticity. Looking at 16-20 weeks recovery and that is if the muscoskeletal system responds optimally.

If this is actually the injury then at least it happened now so he has time to recover as best as possible before Iran's olympic selection but this is going to put him even further down on the ladder since they do not always utilize an OTT format for their team selection.

Of course, you could have just been throwing out a dick joke and this doesn't matter.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

Just now, bnwtwg said:

Serious or shitpost? Asking because a dual groin tear can quickly lead to becoming a slow burn career-ending kind of injury for adults due to the loss of elasticity. Looking at 16-20 weeks recovery and that is if the muscoskeletal system responds optimally.

If this is actually the injury then at least it happened now so he has time to recover as best as possible before Iran's olympic selection but this is going to put him even further down on the ladder since they do not always utilize an OTT format for their team selection.

Of course, you could have just been throwing out a dick joke and this doesn't matter.

Geez guys! This is 100% what happened. I guess I should have included a laughing face?

(Take this from a guy with an IT band issue who changed his stride to compensate for the IT band and ended up with Achilles tendinitis!)

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

2 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Serious or shitpost? Asking because a dual groin tear can quickly lead to becoming a slow burn career-ending kind of injury for adults due to the loss of elasticity. Looking at 16-20 weeks recovery and that is if the muscoskeletal system responds optimally.

If this is actually the injury then at least it happened now so he has time to recover as best as possible before Iran's olympic selection but this is going to put him even further down on the ladder since they do not always utilize an OTT format for their team selection.

Of course, you could have just been throwing out a dick joke and this doesn't matter.

One of them is reportedly a 90% tear.

[nhs67]

8 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

16 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Is this a serious question?

It wasn't a question as to ethics or morals or ego or anything mental... it was an actual physical limitation exceeded.  When one tears, you must do more with the other.  Have you never had an injury?

 

40 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Double groin tear on Ghasempour.  What was he overcompensating for?

 

He tore one then the other?

Edit: To include your prior quote's quote...

Edited August 29, 2023 by nhs67

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

19 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

He tore one then the other?

Edit: To include your prior quote's quote...

It was a "dick joke"

[nhs67]

7 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

It was a "dick joke"

Damn.

You hear that Airbus flying over my head?

That's the joke.

My apologies, mate.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

Just now, nhs67 said:

Damn.

You hear that Airbus flying over my head?

That's the joke.

My apologies, mate.

No problem! 

[bnwtwg]

Who wants to hear my dick joke? It's a long one!

[D3 for LU]

14 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Who wants to hear my dick joke? It's a long one!

D3

[steamboat_charlie]

On 8/26/2023 at 9:38 PM, oldschool said:

Would love to hear your guy's thoughts

I think we'd be extremely lucky to do as well as you predict.  

We have one clear favorite in Taylor, but Dake and Steveson are just as likely to take Bronze as they are to take Gold, IMO.

Richards and Marstellar I would expect zero points from.  20 from the pair would be a huge plus. 

I would guess something like:

57kg - Richards - DNP - 0
61kg - Vito - 5th - 10
65kg - Lee - DNP - 0
70kg - Retherford - Bronze - 15
74kg - Dake - Silver - 20
79kg - Marstellar - DNP - 0
86kg - Taylor - Gold - 25
92kg - Valencia - 5th - 10
97kg - Snyder - Silver - 20
125kg - Steveson - Silver - 20
Total - 120

Awesome that  you're going.  I'm jealous.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

6 minutes ago, steamboat_charlie said:

I think we'd be extremely lucky to do as well as you predict.  

We have one clear favorite in Taylor, but Dake and Steveson are just as likely to take Bronze as they are to take Gold, IMO.

Richards and Marstellar I would expect zero points from.  20 from the pair would be a huge plus. 

I would guess something like:

57kg - Richards - DNP - 0
61kg - Vito - 5th - 10
65kg - Lee - DNP - 0
70kg - Retherford - Bronze - 15
74kg - Dake - Silver - 20
79kg - Marstellar - DNP - 0
86kg - Taylor - Gold - 25
92kg - Valencia - 5th - 10
97kg - Snyder - Silver - 20
125kg - Steveson - Silver - 20
Total - 120

Awesome that  you're going.  I'm jealous.

Keep in mind that PD3 got the US some points, as did medalist Joe Colon who was technically a "backup."

Edited August 29, 2023 by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[mspart]

54 minutes ago, steamboat_charlie said:

I think we'd be extremely lucky to do as well as you predict.  

We have one clear favorite in Taylor, but Dake and Steveson are just as likely to take Bronze as they are to take Gold, IMO.

Richards and Marstellar I would expect zero points from.  20 from the pair would be a huge plus. 

I would guess something like:

57kg - Richards - DNP - 0
61kg - Vito - 5th - 10
65kg - Lee - DNP - 0
70kg - Retherford - Bronze - 15
74kg - Dake - Silver - 20
79kg - Marstellar - DNP - 0
86kg - Taylor - Gold - 25
92kg - Valencia - 5th - 10
97kg - Snyder - Silver - 20
125kg - Steveson - Silver - 20
Total - 120

Awesome that  you're going.  I'm jealous.

Wondering why you have Snyder at Silver and not Gold?   Is Sadulaev scheduled to be there?  If not, I would say Snyder is the odds on favorite.   Just my $0.02. 

I think Dake is Gold, Taylor is Gold, and Snyder is Gold.   Steveson could be Gold but I'm hearing he is not completely 100% training FS.   But that could just be rumor.   I think the rest have the potential to medal.  But probably won't. 

mspart

[bnwtwg]

1 hour ago, steamboat_charlie said:

We have one clear favorite in Taylor, but Dake and Steveson are just as likely to take Bronze as they are to take Gold, IMO.

Agreed on all three of the above. And does everyone want to hear an unpopular but not-so-hot take?

Because Steveson has no rankings points he will be randomly drawn into the bracket which could lead to three negative outcomes.

Negative outcome #1 - he "only" gets silver.

Negative outcome # 2 - the brackets are balanced with two of the Big 4 on each side, he loses to the finalist, then grabs a bronze.

Negative outcome #3 - the worst scenario is an overloaded side featuring three of the Big 4. He could conceivably lose twice and go home with no medal.

Am I saying it will happen? No - I think September 17th at approximately 12:30 CST he is doing another backflip. But this is why they wrestle the matches and it is absolutely in the realm of realistic.

You can do the same exercise with Dake, Sidakov, and Kadimagomedov. Depending on the draw, one of the best in the world is potentially going home empty handed.

[bnwtwg]

To add and just to clarify before anyone jumps down my hot take: I think Steveson IS the bad draw.