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2023-24 Top 10 P4P


BAC

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I haven't been following very closely who's got another year and who doesn't but here is my take.  Lots of freestyle analogies to draw distinctions, but some of it is just eye test.  What's yours?

1.  Arujau.  This guy level-jumped big time.  Never thought I'd see someone major Fix, a World silver medalist, and definitely never thought I'd someone handle RBY like that.  Move over Gilman/Lee, I see him as our 57kg Olympic rep.

2.  Brooks.  Just effortlessly dismantles guys with Cael-like fluidity.  Going for 4.  Wins over Olympic Bronze Amine shows his bona fides.  Only think I think he lacks is S-tier strength.  Will be fun to see him challenge Taylor for 86kg supremacy.

3.  Starocci.  Gives up nothing.  Going for 4.  Multiple wins over Jr World Gold Lewis.  Stuck between 74kg and 86kg but I hope he sticks around after Olympics before MMA because 79kg would be his.

4.  O'Toole.  Win over Carr was super impressive.  So was his tech over Kharchla.  2xer and has a Jr World Gold.  High wrestling IQ and can't wait to see how far he goes.

5.  Carr.  Knocked off O'Toole 2x before NCAA finals, 2 career losses, past NCAA champ and Jr World Gold.  Future world teamer.

6.  Fix.  Can't seem to get on the top of the podium but has a Sr-Level World silver, 3x NCAA runner up, and chatter is he'll use his last year.  Would have him higher but after McGee loss, am thinking he's doing the Okie St regression.

7.  Kerkvliet. Has been stuck behind some studs.  Level-jumped to pass Cass, but Parris level-jumped even more. Past Cadet gold, and good shot at international success if he stays healthy.

8.  Hendrickson.  Very little separating him from Kerk.  Would have won in the semis if he picked top.  Molested Cass, a former U23 World Champ.  

9.  Alirez.  Undefeated NCAA champ with huge bonus percentage.  Beat a tough Woods to get there.  Maybe too high, maybe too low here... hard to say.

10.  Woods.  Only loss to Alirez and was right there with him.  A couple one-point losses last year to Lee/Rivera.  A tough out. 

 

Hard to leave out Keckeisen, Ramos, Haines, Hidlay, Foca and others, and I'm sure someone will tell me so-and-so is or isn't coming back for a final year, but that's off the top of my head.

Speaking of which, is Mekhi Lewis coming back?  If so, I'd probably slot him in somewhere toward the end, despite Foca loss.  

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13 minutes ago, BAC said:

I haven't been following very closely who's got another year and who doesn't but here is my take.  Lots of freestyle analogies to draw distinctions, but some of it is just eye test.  What's yours?

1.  Arujau.  This guy level-jumped big time.  Never thought I'd see someone major Fix, a World silver medalist, and definitely never thought I'd someone handle RBY like that.  Move over Gilman/Lee, I see him as our 57kg Olympic rep.

2.  Brooks.  Just effortlessly dismantles guys with Cael-like fluidity.  Going for 4.  Wins over Olympic Bronze Amine shows his bona fides.  Only think I think he lacks is S-tier strength.  Will be fun to see him challenge Taylor for 86kg supremacy.

3.  Starocci.  Gives up nothing.  Going for 4.  Multiple wins over Jr World Gold Lewis.  Stuck between 74kg and 86kg but I hope he sticks around after Olympics before MMA because 79kg would be his.

4.  O'Toole.  Win over Carr was super impressive.  So was his tech over Kharchla.  2xer and has a Jr World Gold.  High wrestling IQ and can't wait to see how far he goes.

5.  Carr.  Knocked off O'Toole 2x before NCAA finals, 2 career losses, past NCAA champ and Jr World Gold.  Future world teamer.

6.  Fix.  Can't seem to get on the top of the podium but has a Sr-Level World silver, 3x NCAA runner up, and chatter is he'll use his last year.  Would have him higher but after McGee loss, am thinking he's doing the Okie St regression.

7.  Kerkvliet. Has been stuck behind some studs.  Level-jumped to pass Cass, but Parris level-jumped even more. Past Cadet gold, and good shot at international success if he stays healthy.

8.  Hendrickson.  Very little separating him from Kerk.  Would have won in the semis if he picked top.  Molested Cass, a former U23 World Champ.  

9.  Alirez.  Undefeated NCAA champ with huge bonus percentage.  Beat a tough Woods to get there.  Maybe too high, maybe too low here... hard to say.

10.  Woods.  Only loss to Alirez and was right there with him.  A couple one-point losses last year to Lee/Rivera.  A tough out. 

 

Hard to leave out Keckeisen, Ramos, Haines, Hidlay, Foca and others, and I'm sure someone will tell me so-and-so is or isn't coming back for a final year, but that's off the top of my head.

Speaking of which, is Mekhi Lewis coming back?  If so, he may have a claim to the bottom half.  

Good writeup.

It seems that, based on past experiences, that 57kg has been a bit low for Vito.  This might be the reason why he has seemingly improved so much this year.

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16 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Good writeup.

It seems that, based on past experiences, that 57kg has been a bit low for Vito.  This might be the reason why he has seemingly improved so much this year.

Maybe.  I hope he goes 61kg this year.  Not an Olympic weight but he can use his performance to judge what to do next.

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45 minutes ago, BAC said:

I haven't been following very closely who's got another year and who doesn't but here is my take.  Lots of freestyle analogies to draw distinctions, but some of it is just eye test.  What's yours?

1.  Arujau.  This guy level-jumped big time.  Never thought I'd see someone major Fix, a World silver medalist, and definitely never thought I'd someone handle RBY like that.  Move over Gilman/Lee, I see him as our 57kg Olympic rep.

2.  Brooks.  Just effortlessly dismantles guys with Cael-like fluidity.  Going for 4.  Wins over Olympic Bronze Amine shows his bona fides.  Only think I think he lacks is S-tier strength.  Will be fun to see him challenge Taylor for 86kg supremacy.

3.  Starocci.  Gives up nothing.  Going for 4.  Multiple wins over Jr World Gold Lewis.  Stuck between 74kg and 86kg but I hope he sticks around after Olympics before MMA because 79kg would be his.

4.  O'Toole.  Win over Carr was super impressive.  So was his tech over Kharchla.  2xer and has a Jr World Gold.  High wrestling IQ and can't wait to see how far he goes.

5.  Carr.  Knocked off O'Toole 2x before NCAA finals, 2 career losses, past NCAA champ and Jr World Gold.  Future world teamer.

6.  Fix.  Can't seem to get on the top of the podium but has a Sr-Level World silver, 3x NCAA runner up, and chatter is he'll use his last year.  Would have him higher but after McGee loss, am thinking he's doing the Okie St regression.

7.  Kerkvliet. Has been stuck behind some studs.  Level-jumped to pass Cass, but Parris level-jumped even more. Past Cadet gold, and good shot at international success if he stays healthy.

8.  Hendrickson.  Very little separating him from Kerk.  Would have won in the semis if he picked top.  Molested Cass, a former U23 World Champ.  

9.  Alirez.  Undefeated NCAA champ with huge bonus percentage.  Beat a tough Woods to get there.  Maybe too high, maybe too low here... hard to say.

10.  Woods.  Only loss to Alirez and was right there with him.  A couple one-point losses last year to Lee/Rivera.  A tough out. 

 

Hard to leave out Keckeisen, Ramos, Haines, Hidlay, Foca and others, and I'm sure someone will tell me so-and-so is or isn't coming back for a final year, but that's off the top of my head.

Speaking of which, is Mekhi Lewis coming back?  If so, I'd probably slot him in somewhere toward the end, despite Foca loss.  

Sammy Sasso deserves to be mentioned. Guy has been tough as nails for years going 2-5-2 at NCAA's. 

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1 hour ago, Gus said:

Sammy Sasso deserves to be mentioned. Guy has been tough as nails for years going 2-5-2 at NCAA's. 

Forgot he had another year.  He's in the mix for the last 2-3 spots. 

1 hour ago, fishbane said:

What about Shane Griffith, Ridge Lovett and Cohlton Schultz?  They don't even make the second HM group?

Forgot Griffith had another year.  He's also in the mix for the last 2-3 spots, but he did take several losses this year and took 5th, so I dunno.

Did think of Lovett/Schultz but wouldn't put either top 10.  Feel free to add as HMs.  

1 hour ago, fishbane said:

Also how are 3 non-champs all above Alirez?

Not sold on Alirez on a P4P level.  He won out unbeaten, but as a 1st time AA in a cleared-out weight class.  No notable senior-level wins or world-level freestyle honors.  The guys I put above him have better overall resumes against better competition, IMO.  Maybe he should be a spot or two higher, but there's also an argument to slot Lewis and maybe Sasso/Griffith ahead of him.       

41 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Uh, what?

 Sorry to trigger you Jimmy!

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6 hours ago, BAC said:

Not sold on Alirez on a P4P level.  He won out unbeaten, but as a 1st time AA in a cleared-out weight class.  No notable senior-level wins or world-level freestyle honors.  The guys I put above him have better overall resumes against better competition, IMO.  Maybe he should be a spot or two higher, but there's also an argument to slot Lewis and maybe Sasso/Griffith ahead of him.       

Winning Senior Nationals isn't a notable win?  He was the OW of freestyle Senior Nationals in 2020 and beat the likes of Joey McKenna and Evan Henderson en route to the title at 65kg.  He was 4th at the 2019 Schultz where he beat 2x NCAA champ Dean Heil.  Who in your list has more impressive senior level freestyle results than that?  I think Arujau is the only other guy to win Senior Nationals. He was also runner up at the olympic trials and maybe a WTT, so I'll give you him, but who else? There might be some argument for Starocci or possibly Carr, but that isn't clear cut.  He has at least the 4th best senior freestyle results in the group.  

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15 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Winning Senior Nationals isn't a notable win?  He was the OW of freestyle Senior Nationals in 2020 and beat the likes of Joey McKenna and Evan Henderson en route to the title at 65kg.  He was 4th at the 2019 Schultz where he beat 2x NCAA champ Dean Heil.  Who in your list has more impressive senior level freestyle results than that?  I think Arujau is the only other guy to win Senior Nationals. He was also runner up at the olympic trials and maybe a WTT, so I'll give you him, but who else? There might be some argument for Starocci or possibly Carr, but that isn't clear cut.  He has at least the 4th best senior freestyle results in the group.  

And Fix.  Sports definitely top 5, but realistically ahead of Starocci or Carr too.

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10 hours ago, BAC said:

I haven't been following very closely who's got another year and who doesn't but here is my take.  Lots of freestyle analogies to draw distinctions, but some of it is just eye test.  What's yours?

1.  Arujau.  This guy level-jumped big time.  Never thought I'd see someone major Fix, a World silver medalist, and definitely never thought I'd someone handle RBY like that.  Move over Gilman/Lee, I see him as our 57kg Olympic rep.

2.  Brooks.  Just effortlessly dismantles guys with Cael-like fluidity.  Going for 4.  Wins over Olympic Bronze Amine shows his bona fides.  Only think I think he lacks is S-tier strength.  Will be fun to see him challenge Taylor for 86kg supremacy.

3.  Starocci.  Gives up nothing.  Going for 4.  Multiple wins over Jr World Gold Lewis.  Stuck between 74kg and 86kg but I hope he sticks around after Olympics before MMA because 79kg would be his.

4.  O'Toole.  Win over Carr was super impressive.  So was his tech over Kharchla.  2xer and has a Jr World Gold.  High wrestling IQ and can't wait to see how far he goes.

5.  Carr.  Knocked off O'Toole 2x before NCAA finals, 2 career losses, past NCAA champ and Jr World Gold.  Future world teamer.

6.  Fix.  Can't seem to get on the top of the podium but has a Sr-Level World silver, 3x NCAA runner up, and chatter is he'll use his last year.  Would have him higher but after McGee loss, am thinking he's doing the Okie St regression.

7.  Kerkvliet. Has been stuck behind some studs.  Level-jumped to pass Cass, but Parris level-jumped even more. Past Cadet gold, and good shot at international success if he stays healthy.

8.  Hendrickson.  Very little separating him from Kerk.  Would have won in the semis if he picked top.  Molested Cass, a former U23 World Champ.  

9.  Alirez.  Undefeated NCAA champ with huge bonus percentage.  Beat a tough Woods to get there.  Maybe too high, maybe too low here... hard to say.

10.  Woods.  Only loss to Alirez and was right there with him.  A couple one-point losses last year to Lee/Rivera.  A tough out. 

 

Hard to leave out Keckeisen, Ramos, Haines, Hidlay, Foca and others, and I'm sure someone will tell me so-and-so is or isn't coming back for a final year, but that's off the top of my head.

Speaking of which, is Mekhi Lewis coming back?  If so, I'd probably slot him in somewhere toward the end, despite Foca loss.  

Vito lost to Sam Latona this year and had another close match with him at ncaa no way he’s number 1 

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Starocci is a 3x ncaa champ who hasn’t lost in 2 years, has avenged every lose he’s had …has multiple wins over an ncaa champ (Lewis) , absolutely crushed Hidley last year , stuck labriola with little effort in the finals and has a bonus rate of 57 and 67 the past 2 seasons and is going for a 4th title , idk see how is isn’t the number 1 p4p guy 

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2 hours ago, fishbane said:

Winning Senior Nationals isn't a notable win?  He was the OW of freestyle Senior Nationals in 2020 and beat the likes of Joey McKenna and Evan Henderson en route to the title at 65kg.  He was 4th at the 2019 Schultz where he beat 2x NCAA champ Dean Heil.  Who in your list has more impressive senior level freestyle results than that?  I think Arujau is the only other guy to win Senior Nationals. He was also runner up at the olympic trials and maybe a WTT, so I'll give you him, but who else? There might be some argument for Starocci or possibly Carr, but that isn't clear cut.  He has at least the 4th best senior freestyle results in the group.  

That's a solid point, I didn't recall his 2020 run.  The field was Covid-depleted but McKenna/Henderson are legit wins.  

That said, I'm not sure it moves the needle much.  I'd bump him up to 8 over Hendrickson but hard to elevate further.  Never made a Senior World team (unlike Arujau, Fix, Starocci, Carr) and no age-group world medals (unlike all the guys ahead of him, who all have 1+ golds except Starocci).  And in folkstyle, he never made the podium until this year (unlike all the guys ahead of him).  I can see the argument for him over Kerk, but I also forgot Mekhi, so... hard to say.

Don't want to sound like I'm down on the guy though.  He beat a few guys this year that he lost to last year, and looks sharp.  I guess he had some injuries and is back in form. And if he can replicate his 2020 freestyle results (thanks for finding that) he'll be a threat this freestyle season.  

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43 minutes ago, BAC said:

Don't want to sound like I'm down on the guy though.  He beat a few guys this year that he lost to last year, and looks sharp.  I guess he had some injuries and is back in form. And if he can replicate his 2020 freestyle results (thanks for finding that) he'll be a threat this freestyle season.  

In a discussion such as this, it should never be about knocking someone else down. These guys are all so incredible, it's a subjective list(particularly before qualifying for this years team).

So it doesn't sound like you're "down" on him to me, it sounds like you're just a bit higher on some guys you believe are a bit more proven.

 

12 hours ago, BAC said:

3.  Starocci.  Gives up nothing.  Going for 4.  Multiple wins over Jr World Gold Lewis.  Stuck between 74kg and 86kg but I hope he sticks around after Olympics before MMA because 79kg would be his.

4.  O'Toole.  Win over Carr was super impressive.  So was his tech over Kharchla.  2xer and has a Jr World Gold.  High wrestling IQ and can't wait to see how far he goes.

I agree with this order for non-Olympic weights, but if we're talking Olympic weights, I wonder if the edge doesn't slide closer to O'Toole(and Carr who are basically equal IMO). 74KG is going to change Starocci's body. He looks like a pretty damn big 174LBer. Sucking down to ~163? He's going to be emaciated. Seems like it'd serve both he and Brooks better to go '84/'97 next year, but obviously they've got different plans. I really can't see Starocci beating Dake dropping all the way down, but we are constantly surprised in this sport.

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Hendrickson is likely the dark horse for next year.  He doesn't see the day in day out competition at AFA and handled himself well in the tournament.  His confidence level is going to be off the scale next season.  He may not be No. 1 PFP given his 285 (and face it neither him nor anyone else is a Steveson), but he is going to challenge for Kerkvliet next year.

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6 hours ago, BAC said:

That's a solid point, I didn't recall his 2020 run.  The field was Covid-depleted but McKenna/Henderson are legit wins.  

I don't know how depleted it was at this weight.  Both 2018 Open finalists (McKenna and Eierman) were in the field. McKenna was in Final X 2018 and the OTT finals and Henderson was in final X 2022.  I think absolute numbers were up because there weren't many events in 2020 so it was the only game in town. Several top guys skipped because it didn't qualify for anything, but then again those guys sometimes skip in a normal year if they are already qualified.

6 hours ago, BAC said:

Never made a Senior World team (unlike Arujau, Fix, Starocci, Carr) and 

Pretty sure Fix is the only one to make a world team.  He made the team at 57kg in 2019 (dnp) and 61kg in 2021 (silver).  Arujau was close losing in the OTT finals in 2021 and Final X in 2022.  Starocci had notable performances at the 2021 and 2022 WTT beating the likes of Dieringer, Marsteller, Nolf, Lujan and Wick at 79kg.  However all those wins came on the backside as he lost relatively early in both tournaments and came back to place 3rd on the ladder each time.  Carr was 6th at senior nationals in 2020 losing to eventual champ Massa in the semis.  At the OTT he beat Massa, but failed to place.  His best placement was at the 2022 WTT where he finished 3rd and currently sits 4th on the national team ladder.

6 hours ago, BAC said:

 no age-group world medals (unlike all the guys ahead of him, who all have 1+ golds except Starocci).  

Vito doesn't have an age level gold.  The best he did was silver at both juniors and cadets.  Starocci may not have gold, but he has the most recent world medal (bronze U23 in 2022).

I'm not sure how relevant age levels are to an NCAA p4p list.  After all Verkleeren was a cadet world champ and Braxton Amos was a junior world champ and those guys aren't making this list.  Also for a lot of these guys these medals were won years ago. Brooks and Kerk haven't medaled at a world level event since 2018.  For Carr and Vito it's 2019.  Should two cadet medals 5-6 years ago have Kerk above a guy that won NCAAs this season and senior nationals in 2020 (2 things Kerk's never done)?  I don't think so.

That said, Kerk has had some decent placements in senior level freestyle events (2019 senior nationals and the OTT), but he always seems to beat college guys whilst losing to the older guys (Gwiz, Nelson, ect.) so it seemingly doesn't add much to his NCAA record.

I agree that Alirez isn't making it to the top of the list or even the top 5, but it was striking that you had guys that placed 3rd and 4th at other weights ahead of him.  Even now as you're discussing moving him up you open to the possibility of Lewis leapfrogging ahead of him.

I was a little off earlier.  Four wrestlers with remaining NCAA eligibility have won freestyle senior nationals; Fix (57kg 2019), Vito (57kg 2020), Alirez (65kg 2020), and Ramos (57kg 2022).

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9 hours ago, scourge165 said:

I agree with this order for non-Olympic weights, but if we're talking Olympic weights, I wonder if the edge doesn't slide closer to O'Toole(and Carr who are basically equal IMO). 74KG is going to change Starocci's body. He looks like a pretty damn big 174LBer. Sucking down to ~163? He's going to be emaciated. Seems like it'd serve both he and Brooks better to go '84/'97 next year, but obviously they've got different plans. I really can't see Starocci beating Dake dropping all the way down, but we are constantly surprised in this sport.

I have to think he goes 86kg.  That's what he did in the last Olympic run, before settling in at 79kg last year and making the world team (beating Dieringer and others).  Expecting to see a bunch of PSU wrestlers, Taylor Brooks and Starocci.  Agree Carr/O'Toole would go 174, no easy task with JB/Dake there. 

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3 hours ago, fishbane said:

I don't know how depleted it was at this weight. 

No Yianni or Zain, but as I said I agree McKenna/Henderson are legit.

3 hours ago, fishbane said:

Pretty sure Fix is the only one to make a world team. 

I'm referring to the National Team, which is top 3.  That's what gets you funding.  Its why they have true third.  The guys I mentioned have all placed top 3. (Agree that Fix is the only one to rep the US in a world championship.)

3 hours ago, fishbane said:

I'm not sure how relevant age levels are to an NCAA p4p list. 

Some results are dated, and they are not always predictive, but there are not many ways to draw distinctions between wrestlers in different weight classes.  If someone struggled internationally, you wonder if their domestic success is due to a weak weight.  And if they have success internationally, it further legitimizes their wins, and puts their losses in context (e.g. Fix).  There's always exceptions but overall, age group gold medalists are a who's who of future champions, and helps puts present accomplishments in context.

3 hours ago, fishbane said:

Should two cadet medals 5-6 years ago have Kerk above a guy that won NCAAs this season and senior nationals in 2020 (2 things Kerk's never done)?  I don't think so.

I don't think so either but that isn't what I said and isn't what I think.

I'm mostly influenced by the fact that the HWT weight class is unusually strong right now, relatively speaking. 

For YEARS, HWT was one of the worst P4P in the NCAAs, mostly inhabited by large plodding guys who would never sniff an international medal.  Lockart, Ellis, Fox, Mocco, Rey, Nelson, Konrad, Zabriskie... ruling the NCAA HWT class for 15+ years, zero medals among them, shoving each other to 1-1 OT RO wins while athletic leg-attacking heavies dominate internationally.  All NCAA champs, sure, but how high on a P4P list?

That started to change with Gwiz, and then fast forward to the last couple years, and our crop of athletic technical heavies is arguably the best ever.  You have age group golds in Cadets (Kerk, Schultz), Juniors (Parris), U23 (Cassioppi) and Seniors (Gable) -- all highly athletic guys with refined technique who, IMO, would have run the table if they competed in 2000 to @2014-15 against most of the above guys, and many could/would challenge for a senior international medal *today*.  Forget about his cadet medals -- Kerk has multiple wins over Parris, Cassioppi, and made the semis of the OTTs.  Has slipped behind Parris but was beating Parris in 2021 when the latter beat Zilmer/Gwiz.  There's a body of work that shows Kerk would be a medal threat at worlds today.

Its also why I'm high on Hendrickson, another skilled athletic heavy who's shown he can compete with these guys.

4 hours ago, fishbane said:

I agree that Alirez isn't making it to the top of the list or even the top 5, but it was striking that you had guys that placed 3rd and 4th at other weights ahead of him. 

Its P4P.  With no head-to-head results across weight classes, final NCAA placement doesn't matter as much as who they beat, their history and the overall proven package. Fix was 2nd in the world but stuck behind RBY (and now Vito).  And we have a monster crop of heavies as I said.  I'm more sold on Alirez than I was before as those 2020 results show he can go with the top dogs -- but as scourge said above, its more about my having a high opinion of other guys than it is a low opinion of Alirez.

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  • 4 months later...
On 3/28/2023 at 12:55 PM, BAC said:

I'm more sold on Alirez than I was before as those 2020 results show he can go with the top dogs -- but as scourge said above, its more about my having a high opinion of other guys than it is a low opinion of Alirez.

Alirez beat 3x world champion Haji Aliyev 8-0 this week.  Aliyev was also a silver medalist in Tokyo.

https://uncbears.com/news/2023/7/31/wrestling-alirez-wins-gold-at-poland-open.aspx

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