Easiest Weight

[Wrestleknownothing]

I felt a little dirty typing that title. Maybe Jimmy is getting to me.

Of course, there are no easy weights. But I think the consensus is that 165, with 3 returning champs, is the toughest. 

To get the debate started I give you the cumulative winning percentage, wins, and loses by weight sorted by win percentage.

 

[Crotalus]

What about number of returning All- Americans and their average finish?

[lightweight]

Hmm, I'm not sure that these data provide a lot of insight into "easiest".  Here's a hypothetical: Imagine a weight class with only three wrestlers, all of them distinguished past champions.  During the season they had a round robin, and each went 1-1.  That would give you a .500 win percentage and a .500 loss percentage, but I wouldn't say that that would be a weight class that would be easiest to win, necessarily.   

 

[ionel]

Many on these here boards will look at that table and say 285.  Others might pick another weight and say - sure I could make that but it won't be "easy."

[PencilNeck]

is 25 ever not the easiest weight?

Also, number of champs isn't necessarily that big an indicator. What if they won their title because they were at an easy weight? I guess it may depend if they are at 65 because it's their natural weight, because they want a challenge, or because they are hiding our from tougher guys at 174 and 157. I do generally think that champions have the confidence to toe the line where they are naturally, so that's probably the case. Do college wrestlers ever bump up or down to avoid a stud at their natural weight in hopes to get a better shot at AA or a Title?

[SocraTease]

It seems there is a need for clarification about what "easiest" (or "hardest") weight means:

1. Easiest for any of the 33 seeded wrestlers to win (compared to the other 9 weights)?

2. Easiest to AA (top 8)?

3. Easiest because the weight isn't very deep (compared to the other 9 weights)— e.g., only has 2  or 3 elite guys in it?

4. Easiest path to win the weight for someone given their seeding?

 

125 might be the easiest for Spencer Lee win because he doesn't have many true threats.

165 might be the hardest for anyone who is not a top 4 seed. It has three returning champs.

197 seems wide open and relatively "easy" for top 12 or so guys to conceivably make the finals and win.

133  won't be easy unless you are RBY, Fix or Arujau. Same for 285: on paper it looks like Parris vs. Kerk.

The only weights with no returning champs are:  141 and 285.  Are they easier?

 

One way to imagine the situation would be to ask if you had no idea what your given weight was, which weight would you pick to be thrown into and have the best chance to win it given what you know about the listed wrestlers and contenders?

My own sense is that 197 and 157 are the most wide open.  Then perhaps followed by 141.

 

Edited March 9, 2023 by SocraTease

[Crotalus]

I feel the opposite about 197. I think it's possibly the deepest weight, alongside 165, or possibly even deeper. Last years champ is the 9 seed. With so many guys capable of winning it, whoever does will have gone through an absolute meat grinder. I don't think that sounds "easy" just because it's wide open.

[SocraTease]

1 hour ago, Crotalus said:

I feel the opposite about 197. I think it's possibly the deepest weight, alongside 165, or possibly even deeper. Last years champ is the 9 seed. With so many guys capable of winning it, whoever does will have gone through an absolute meat grinder. I don't think that sounds "easy" just because it's wide open.

Perhaps. 

More guys have a chance at 197, but does that make it easier or harder?   

Yes, it seems both deeper and wider (more open). 

Most guys don't have a chance at 125, 165, 174, 184, and 285 (i.e., only a few are likely to win it)

[SocraTease]

Maybe the easiest weight is to not make weight. 

Then you can sit in the stands, eat French Fries, and watch the action for three days.  

[jross]

This tournament seems more balanced and competitive than in recent years.  Across all the weights...

There are multiple brackets with returning AAs ranked outside the top 8.  That is a a signal to the above.

141 is one where I'd guess to be weaker based on top seeds compared to past performance.

The AF HWT has a great seed in a tough bracket...  the eye test has him top 2 but he'll end up in 5th or 6th.

[Matthew Burns]

4 of the 5 "easy" weights have a high seed that is a multiple time champ that has dominated his class for 3-4 seasons.

The field may be less accomplished, but the top is pretty heavy.

 

 

 

[Gus]

2 hours ago, Crotalus said:

I feel the opposite about 197. I think it's possibly the deepest weight, alongside 165, or possibly even deeper. Last years champ is the 9 seed. With so many guys capable of winning it, whoever does will have gone through an absolute meat grinder. I don't think that sounds "easy" just because it's wide open.

197 has the champ from last year (Dean), runner up from last year (Warner), runner up from two years ago (Nino), two U23 world silver medalists (Sloan & Cardenas), 2x AA Elam, 2x AA Truax, 1x AA Beard, 1x AA Bastida, 1xAA Hoffman

[Plasmodium]

That table shows 141 is the toughest weight, eh?

[Dark Energy]

Ok, let’s look at top end talent.  For this I’d say ..

125, 133, 149, 165, 174, and 184 have super studs at the top.

Of 141, 157, 197 and Hvy … I think 157 and 197 are on the lower end of the stud category.  Still studs, just a bit behind.

 

[AKHUNTER]

8 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

 

 there are no easy weights.

 

 

 

[AKHUNTER]

7 hours ago, PencilNeck said:

is 25 ever not the easiest weight?

Also, number of champs isn't necessarily that big an indicator. What if they won their title because they were at an easy weight? I guess it may depend if they are at 65 because it's their natural weight, because they want a challenge, or because they are hiding our from tougher guys at 174 and 157. I do generally think that champions have the confidence to toe the line where they are naturally, so that's probably the case. Do college wrestlers ever bump up or down to avoid a stud at their natural weight in hopes to get a better shot at AA or a Title?

"back in the day".......... guys would bump to wrestle tough guys.....it was almost always a bump up..... not go down. Schalles regularly bumped to wrestle a tough opponent. Many others did it as well.

[Crotalus]

4 hours ago, SocraTease said:

Perhaps. 

More guys have a chance at 197, but does that make it easier or harder?   

Yes, it seems both deeper and wider (more open). 

Most guys don't have a chance at 125, 165, 174, 184, and 285 (i.e., only a few are likely to win it)

It's a matter of perspective, of course. For the 1 seed at 125, this is possibly the lightest NCAA competition-wise he's faced. If you're anyone else other than Glory, your mother wouldn't even bet on you to win the tournament. But being in the top 8 is within reach for a lot of guys. 

2 hours ago, Gus said:

197 has the champ from last year (Dean), runner up from last year (Warner), runner up from two years ago (Nino), two U23 world silver medalists (Sloan & Cardenas), 2x AA Elam, 2x AA Truax, 1x AA Beard, 1x AA Bastida, 1xAA Hoffman

You can add in a Jr. World gold for Elam.

[1032004]

1 hour ago, Crotalus said:

It's a matter of perspective, of course. For the 1 seed at 125, this is possibly the lightest NCAA competition-wise he's faced. If you're anyone else other than Glory, your mother wouldn't even bet on you to win the tournament. But being in the top 8 is within reach for a lot of guys. 

How could this be the lightest competition he’s faced when the guy he beat in the finals in 2021 is seeded 10th?

[Crotalus]

8 hours ago, 1032004 said:

How could this be the lightest competition he’s faced when the guy he beat in the finals in 2021 is seeded 10th?

That's why I said possibly. Courtney has apparently been dealing with an injury this year and some thought he would seek a medical RS. So I don't think him being 10th is because the competition is that much better than two years ago. But this year and 2021 are undoubtedly lacking in competition compared to the brackets Lee went through in 2018 and 2019.

[1032004]

1 hour ago, Crotalus said:

That's why I said possibly. Courtney has apparently been dealing with an injury this year and some thought he would seek a medical RS. So I don't think him being 10th is because the competition is that much better than two years ago. But this year and 2021 are undoubtedly lacking in competition compared to the brackets Lee went through in 2018 and 2019.

Well yeah in 2018 and 2019 he had past and future national champs in there, those brackets were probably tougher than most (at any weight).  I’ve always been one to defend against the argument that 125 has been “weak” outside of Lee (and Suriano last year) the past few years, but every weight was weaker than it should have been in 2021 because the Ivys could not participate, 125 a little moreso because likely 2 of the top 3 were Ivy.  The addition of Glory alone arguably makes this year’s 125 field better than 2021.

[Crotalus]

1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

Well yeah in 2018 and 2019 he had past and future national champs in there, those brackets were probably tougher than most (at any weight).  I’ve always been one to defend against the argument that 125 has been “weak” outside of Lee (and Suriano last year) the past few years, but every weight was weaker than it should have been in 2021 because the Ivys could not participate, 125 a little moreso because likely 2 of the top 3 were Ivy.  The addition of Glory alone arguably makes this year’s 125 field better than 2021.

Fair points all around. The current 125 field after Glory doesn't appear to be any better, but Glory is a more formidable challenger to Lee than anyone in 2021. 

I believe that no NCAA bracket is truly "weak", but we can compare them relatively, and this year's 125 is lighter in competition than 2018, 2019, and 2022 (Suriano, Glory, Vito). But, guys like Lee also tend to make weights look less competitive than they may truly be. 

[Dogbone]

Some of these brackets may look "easy" because they don't have the accomplishments, yet.

For example, most people view 2008 149 lb bracket the toughest of all time,  but entering the tournament the 4 seed (Jordan Burroughs) had never AA, yet. 

Perhaps we should always look at these things 5 years after the fact?   

It doesn't help how you look at guys like Hidlay and Parker Keck..(sp?)..n who could be good enough to win an NCAA title at different weight or in a different year but are (likely) prevented because they are up against one of the all timers in Brooks.

 

[jross]

Patrick Downey shrugged at all timer with respect to take downs.  https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2750347835182813

[mspart]

On 3/9/2023 at 9:26 AM, PencilNeck said:

is 25 ever not the easiest weight?

Also, number of champs isn't necessarily that big an indicator. What if they won their title because they were at an easy weight? I guess it may depend if they are at 65 because it's their natural weight, because they want a challenge, or because they are hiding our from tougher guys at 174 and 157. I do generally think that champions have the confidence to toe the line where they are naturally, so that's probably the case. Do college wrestlers ever bump up or down to avoid a stud at their natural weight in hopes to get a better shot at AA or a Title?

Cael famously did this his last year, bumped up so he didn't have face those hammers that he had been wrecking the past three years.  

mspart