SI on PSU

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

Edited my post after you responded.  Would be interesting to see those stats from '97 and compare them to how scoring is applied currently

5th place is worth 2 more points today than in 97, 6th place is worth 3 more points, giving PSU 5 more placement points given your assumptions. The only other difference is that Iowa had a single match termination which was worth 1 point. Today it would be worth 1.5 points.

[VakAttack]

1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

135 is an average of 22.5.  Their 4 returning champs averaged 22.4 last year.

Even if Bartlett takes 4th or 5th, Facundo and Van Ness could outperform what I said too.

Obviously that’s best case scenario (although I honestly wouldn’t be completely shocked to see them have 7 champs), but that happens pretty often with PSU.  Just saying I think there’s a path and for example I think them breaking the record is more likely than them losing…

What’s their own team record?

Nothing Facundo or Van Ness have shown this year indicates they have anything like that in them yet.  Still a bunch of time to develop, but they're both very limited offensively.  Facundo, in particular, is at a bear of a weight and I would have him as underdog to place.  Van Ness is at an easier weight, but so far has shown to be more limited wrestler than Facundo (which is disappointing as a fan, since I think he has the most upside of any of the PSU young guys), and was recently relatively easily controlled by a guy I think most of think of as a bloodround guy in Max Murin.  Haines, combining his ability with the weakness of the weight, is most poised to have one of those "PSU Freshman" runs, but I think O'Connor is a bear and will beat everybody, plus you have Andonian who is incredibly difficult to wrestle, especially the first time, and Robb.

I would think Haines has a decent shot to mid-to-high AA, but out of Bartlett, Van Ness, and Facundo, I think your more likely to get one AA than three high AAs; they're just too limited offensively.  PSU guys have great records at NCAAs, but it's typically on the back of their superstuds, and I see that trend continuing (as they cruise to another title, so I'm sure they won't be complaining).

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

5th place is worth 2 more points today than in 97, 6th place is worth 3 more points, giving PSU 5 more placement points given your assumptions. The only other difference is that Iowa had a single match termination which was worth 1 point. Today it would be worth 1.5 points.

I worded this very poorly. A better way to say it is: if you rescored the 1997 tournament using today's scoring, Iowa would have 175.5 rather than 170.

Edited February 22, 2023 by Wrestleknownothing

[1032004]

7 hours ago, VakAttack said:

Nothing Facundo or Van Ness have shown this year indicates they have anything like that in them yet.  Still a bunch of time to develop, but they're both very limited offensively.  Facundo, in particular, is at a bear of a weight and I would have him as underdog to place.  Van Ness is at an easier weight, but so far has shown to be more limited wrestler than Facundo (which is disappointing as a fan, since I think he has the most upside of any of the PSU young guys), and was recently relatively easily controlled by a guy I think most of think of as a bloodround guy in Max Murin.  Haines, combining his ability with the weakness of the weight, is most poised to have one of those "PSU Freshman" runs, but I think O'Connor is a bear and will beat everybody, plus you have Andonian who is incredibly difficult to wrestle, especially the first time, and Robb.

I would think Haines has a decent shot to mid-to-high AA, but out of Bartlett, Van Ness, and Facundo, I think your more likely to get one AA than three high AAs; they're just too limited offensively.  PSU guys have great records at NCAAs, but it's typically on the back of their superstuds, and I see that trend continuing (as they cruise to another title, so I'm sure they won't be complaining).

I don’t really disagree, again just saying it’s possible.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of the things I mentioned, although yes having them all happen together is unlikely.

I’m not crazy about Bartlett, him making the finals is moreso about the weight being pretty wide open.  Woods is probably the only person I’d be surprised if he beat.

Definitely wouldn’t be surprised to see Van Ness flip the result against Murin due to the Cael scouting magic (although I’m definitely rooting for Murin to AA this year!).  His other losses are to Gomez, Sasso and Paniro.  Looks like he hasn’t really wrestled any like 10-20th ranked guys, but he does have multiple bonus victories of NCAA qualifier type guys (so he could score bonus without placing too high).

Facundo beat last year’s 4th and 7th place finishers, 165 is definitely a deep weight but he’s right in the mix to AA.

Edited February 22, 2023 by 1032004

[82bordeaux]

I'm surprised that everyone seems higher on Facundo's chances than SVN's. I agree that SVN has shown the ability to be ridden, and hasn't shown a diverse attack from neutral. However, some guys have that "it" factor that is hard to quantify. SVN has the "it" factor. And he's tough on top and that's key at NCAAs. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see SVN in the finals regardless of what happens at B1Gs. The only one I really think he'd have a hard time with is AOC and he'll only have one shot.

Facundo would have a great tournament if he AAs. That's just a brutal weight with experienced guys.

There were lots of pundits saying Starocci didn't have enough offense to threaten 2 years ago. But if you are within a point of your opponent in the 3rd period and have heart, all bets are off.

[VakAttack]

1 hour ago, 82bordeaux said:

I'm surprised that everyone seems higher on Facundo's chances than SVN's. I agree that SVN has shown the ability to be ridden, and hasn't shown a diverse attack from neutral. However, some guys have that "it" factor that is hard to quantify. SVN has the "it" factor. And he's tough on top and that's key at NCAAs. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see SVN in the finals regardless of what happens at B1Gs. The only one I really think he'd have a hard time with is AOC and he'll only have one shot.

Facundo would have a great tournament if he AAs. That's just a brutal weight with experienced guys.

There were lots of pundits saying Starocci didn't have enough offense to threaten 2 years ago. But if you are within a point of your opponent in the 3rd period and have heart, all bets are off.

It Van Ness is wrestling AOC in the finals, something crazy has happened.

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

Reasonable picks for Penn State's "other guys"

Steen - Doesn't qualify.  Best case, he qualifies by making a miracle run at Big 10s.

Bartlett - 4th-6th place.  Best case he makes the finals but takes 2nd.

SVN - R12 I agree with.  Just not enough offense and can be ridden.  Best case 7th or 8th.

Haines - 2nd-4th.  Dream scenario he wins it all.

Facundo - 7th-8th.  More offense than SVN but in a much deeper weight.  Best case 5th or 6th.

 

[82bordeaux]

55 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

SVN - R12 I agree with.  Just not enough offense and can be ridden.  Best case 7th or 8th.

Where did this narrative that he has no offense come from? He's averaged 9.5 points scored per match including 4 losses where he scored 1-2-2-3.

I think he figures out Johnson, Gomez (dinged), and Murin in the NCAA Tournament if he faces them. Sasso remains a problem for him but isn't unbeatable. He's not beating Yianni wherever he meets him, so the draw matters a ton.

All that said, he could be beaten by a Milner or Thomas very easily.

1 hour ago, VakAttack said:

It Van Ness is wrestling AOC in the finals, something crazy has happened.

Correct!

[VakAttack]

3 minutes ago, 82bordeaux said:

 

Correct!

No, because they're in different weight classes.

[1032004]

1 hour ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Reasonable picks for Penn State's "other guys"

Steen - Doesn't qualify.  Best case, he qualifies by making a miracle run at Big 10s.

Bartlett - 4th-6th place.  Best case he makes the finals but takes 2nd.

SVN - R12 I agree with.  Just not enough offense and can be ridden.  Best case 7th or 8th.

Haines - 2nd-4th.  Dream scenario he wins it all.

Facundo - 7th-8th.  More offense than SVN but in a much deeper weight.  Best case 5th or 6th.

 

Nice to see Jimmy not downplaying PSU’s ability.

So basically best case scenario they can break the record…

[82bordeaux]

53 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

No, because they're in different weight classes.

I know. That's what I meant by correct! I sobered up.

[gimpeltf]

AOC could make 141 but she's out of school so not eligible.

[dragit]

12 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

No such thing anymore.

This is just making me bitter all over again about the Camelot of sportswriting falling apart.   Did I actually used to have my week planned around when the latest issue would hit the mailbox?  Did that really happen?

[Offthemat]

Is nobody going to bring up the SI jinx?  Or did I miss it?

Edited February 22, 2023 by Offthemat

[Wrestleknownothing]

17 minutes ago, dragit said:

This is just making me bitter all over again about the Camelot of sportswriting falling apart.   Did I actually used to have my week planned around when the latest issue would hit the mailbox?  Did that really happen?

Amen, brother.

[dragit]

28 minutes ago, Offthemat said:

Is nobody going to bring up the SI jinx?  Or did I miss it?

That was a cover jinx, I think this was only an article, and written by a non staff writer.   

Plus I think the consensus view is that SI is SI in name only and not relevant enough to put a hex on anyone anymore (says the idiot who still wastes money on a subscription).

[11986]

on paper that Iowa team was not supposed to score near as many points as they did, so you never know. I don't think PSU does it, frankly I don't think they come that close, but they do have the horses to make a run.

Iowa that year:

Whitmer 6 seed/champ; Mena 4 seed/2nd; Ironside 1st seed/champ; Gillis unseeded/6th; Mac 1st seed/champ; Williams 1st seed/champ; Uker 5th seed; 5th; Ersland unseeded/rd of 12; Fullhart 5th seed/champ; Hand unseeded/rd of 12.

So Iowa placed higher than seed in many weights and didn't falter anywhere really. Can PSU do close to that even?

 

[1032004]

42 minutes ago, 11986 said:

on paper that Iowa team was not supposed to score near as many points as they did, so you never know. I don't think PSU does it, frankly I don't think they come that close, but they do have the horses to make a run.

Iowa that year:

Whitmer 6 seed/champ; Mena 4 seed/2nd; Ironside 1st seed/champ; Gillis unseeded/6th; Mac 1st seed/champ; Williams 1st seed/champ; Uker 5th seed; 5th; Ersland unseeded/rd of 12; Fullhart 5th seed/champ; Hand unseeded/rd of 12.

So Iowa placed higher than seed in many weights and didn't falter anywhere really. Can PSU do close to that even?

 

Wow has any other team ever had 2 champs that were seeded 5th or lower?

[AKHUNTER]

22 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

If they wrestle out of their minds they will be lucky to get within 30 points of the record, which won't even put them in the top 10. To say SI is a shadow of its old self is among the understatements of the year.

well........it's still quite early.... uh......... that's an understatement

[1032004]

Just realized wrestlestat has tournament projections, including bonus.  Here's PSU:

https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/tournament/breakdown/60/penn-state

Weight	Wrestler	Rank/Place	Plc + Adv Points	Bonus Points	Total
125	Steen, Gary	52 (NA)	0	0	0
133	Bravo-Young, Roman	2	16	3.24	19.240000000000002
141	Bartlett, Beau	5	10	1.69	11.69
149	Van Ness, Shayne	10 (R12)	2	1.5	3.5
157	Haines, Levi	8	5.5	1.25	6.75
165	Facundo, Alex	12 (R12)	2	0	2
174	Starocci, Carter	1	20	3	23
184	Brooks, Aaron	1	20	3.75	23.75
197	Dean, Max	1	20	3.3	23.3
285	Kerkvliet, Greg	2	16	2.49	18.490000000000002
Totals			111.5	20.2	131.7

 

So they have them at 132, with 3 champs, and RBY losing to Fix of course and Kerk 2nd also.   Bartlett 5th, Haines 8th, Van Ness and Facundo R12.

This is probably pretty close to the worst case scenario (point-wise at least, Van Ness and Facundo could probably do worse but this only has them at 5.5 pts between the two of them to start with)

If I had to bet on them topping their prior record of 146.5 I think they do it. 

Edited February 23, 2023 by 1032004

[Wrestleknownothing]

53 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Wow has any other team ever had 2 champs that were seeded 5th or lower?

1964 Oklahoma had 6th seed Jerry Stanley (147) and unseeded Mike Sager (137) win titles.

1976 Wisconsin had 5th seed Jack Reinwand (126) and unseeded Pat Christenson (167) win titles.

[mspart]

PSU almost always wrestles better than their seeds.   Okie St has not.   Just saying. 

Given this about PSU, you can't count them out, but it does not look probable.  But if they decide to cut loose and just have fun, they might do it.

mspart

 

[hawkguy]

On 2/21/2023 at 7:06 PM, 1032004 said:

I think they can come close, maybe do it. 

I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see them get 6 champs - that’s about 135, potentially a point or two more depending on bonus.

Also wouldn’t be shocked to see Bartlett make the finals: ~18

Then would only need ~17 more between Facundo and Van Ness.

 

 

[lu_alum]

Sports Illustrated -- though this version of SI is a shadow of its former self-- says Penn State might break Iowa's 170-team points record.
https://www.si.com/college/pennstate/wrestling/penn-state-wrestling-nittany-lions-finish-unbeaten-regular-season-with-win-over-clarion

Not Sports Illustrated per se. This is an article from an author who writes for a Penn State instance for SI.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[swoopdown]

Wogenrich may not be George Plimpton but he was and still is a competent old-school (Morning Call for almost 30 years) regional sports writer.   Wogenrich's words "possibly challenge" are not exactly a Joe Namath level guarantee.