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Ah I gotcha. So you’re saying he has a 50% chance to win each match, so to win 4 in a row is 6.2%? Sorry I edited mine above to double it but not that far off. Overall I’d agree with @jajensen09’s comment of saying he only has a 1.1% chance to make the finals is “crazy.” 1.1% and 6.2% is a pretty significant difference. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the actual 125 bracket be chalk. The issue is that the margins are so close no one knows what those seeds will be.

Yeah I don’t hate this take. Although to be fair Mark Hall vs Alex Meyer was Hall’s first ever college dual. I know not the same situation but if that’s a clear carvering then I think there’s an argument for Kasak to be an option

He’s ranked #7 by both Flo and Intermat right now, so not exactly a darkhorse anymore

What do you mean “everyone”? IMO there are about 20 guys that all have a reasonably similar chance to make the finals, and then I’ll give a 2% chance to the remainder of the field. So if my math is right here (maybe not): 2/20 = 10% x 98% = 9.8% Also what do you mean by “history”? You were comparing his current rank to NCAA seeds correct? His rank can change dramatically between now and NCAA’s (up or down).

What about Kasak?

Yeah on the first episode Askren asked “where are you going to put your computer to look stuff up” but seems like they haven’t been since the switch

I could definitely see Keuter going. For some reason I thought Arnold only had 1 date left, but seems he actually has 2 in which case he probably does go, unless the rumors are true that he is injured

I can’t remember, is Gallagher hurt too or has he been beaten out by Wilcox?

Assuming these guys are getting paid for being coaches, what other budget would they really need? Wouldn’t “recruited” in this case pretty much just be a coach calling a kid and saying they’d like to have them on the team so if they’re interested they should apply?

Pyle also said on FRL he thinks we see Arnold at 184 if healthy. They said “I don’t know why we wouldn’t see Arnold at all” but I can see saving him for Oklahoma State

He’s got a plan

Thanks for the reminder WKN 125: Ayala dec Davis 3-0 Iowa 133: Nagao dec Schriever 3-3 141: Woods dec Bartlett 6-3 Iowa 149: Kasak dec Rathjen 6-6 157: Franek dec Haines 9-6 Iowa 165: Mesenbrink maj Caliendo 10-9 PSU 174: Starocci maj Kennedy 14-9 184: Truax maj Riggins 18-9 197: Brooks maj Glazier 22-9 285: Kerk tech Hill 27-9

Nope. There is no chance PSU loses unless they have at least 2 more of their guys out due to injury But tOSU certainly has a shot at 2nd. They’re not built all that different to OSU IMO Wrestlestat ratings highest to lowest: tOSU: 4, 9, 10, 13, 14, 14, 19, 25, 26, 33 Ok St: 2, 2, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 17, 23 The biggest advantage OK St has is Plott, who is rated 2nd but whose highest finish is 6th down a weight. When you factor that Welsh is probably way too low and should likely be more around the 12ish range, tOSU would really only need to overperform by less than 2 places on average and OK St underperform by less than 2 places on average and they’d be right about the same score, especially considering tOSU has more bonus potential IMO.

They certainly have a shot at 2nd IMO. They have 5 guys “rated” between 9-15, who could score more than projected if they AA. They also have Welsh at 25 due to limited data who’s an AA contender. They have Mendez at #4 who could win it all. They also have potential bonus scorers (Bouzakis, Mendez, Rogotzke, Feldman all have bonus wins over NQ type guys)

At 133 he is 2-2 (in 2021), losing to 2 guys who did not AA. Orine lost to the guys that took 3rd, 5th and 7th last year, and he has also beaten the guy that took 7th in the past. I guess you’re really just saying they’d “give Trombley a wrestleoff if he wants one,” which sure maybe, but I highly doubt he beats Orine if so, but I also highly doubt he even attempts to wrestleoff for 133 anyway as Orine seems locked in as the guy.

As the linked statement reiterates, the only “new rule” is removing the no reaction time from the rear standing position only. I think Fix was the beneficiary of that against Edmond, but that’s the only one I recall seeing so far this year. Pretty sure Bartlett’s was officially a neutral danger zone takedown. Or is that the “new rule” you’re referencing? That’s been around several years now and I think seems to be universally agreed that it was a good addition.

Orine has shown to be “head and shoulders above” Trombley at 133, IMO. He’s a returning AA and Trombley has losses this year to Gable Strickland and Ethan Oakley.

I thought Truax was pinned. Woods too, the ref was just out of position

Trombley has pretty much zero chance of starting at 133…

No, I’m sure it was more about the in-state rivalry with UNC, I’m just not sure he would be celebrating like that if he knew was just making some spot starts. I don’t have a problem with it btw, most of the team was doing them actually and fortunately I don’t believe any team points were even taken away

For reference…

For 2nd place, sure

Well the National Coordinator of Wrestling Officials just said you’re wrong

For some reason I thought Camacho had multiple bad losses but he really doesn’t. His worst loss is to Trever Anderson of UNI, who doesn’t really have any other good wins but has quite a few close losses. His other losses are to Noto, Spratley and McCrone. I’m not sure Trombley has shown to be much if any better than those guys. Sure seemed like he thought he was the starter based on the celebration he did after beating Spencer Moore though.