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Wrestleknownothing

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Everything posted by Wrestleknownothing

  1. You definitely got Matt Gaetz's attention with that headline.
  2. Oh, it is a whole thing. Each column in my table is using the rankings from the different ranking services (Flo, Intermat, Wrestlestat), but instead of assuming first will place first, second will place second, etc. like they each do when coming up with their team scores, I base it on historical outcomes. The average points scored (placement, advancement, and bonus) by a #1 seed in my look back period is 19.7, less than what wrestlestat assumes (20+bonus). They also do bonus at the individual wrestler level, while I do it at the seed level. As an aside, they somehow have Penn State with zero bonus points. Meanwhile, they assume 18.8 bonus points for Iowa. The net result is they over value high seeds and undervalue low seeds. This really penalizes the Ivy-ex-Cornell and EIWA-ex-Lehigh groups The extreme example is they assume the 32 and 33 seeds will score zero points. But, by definition one of them will have at least one point. And empirically the 33 seed will score 2.1 points while the 32 will score 1.5 on average.
  3. Nope. Wrestlstat has that at Cornell 53 - Lehigh, the reset of EIWA and the rest of Ivy 60.8. Personally, I think the wrestlestat tournament algo is too binary. I see it this way using the different rankings. So Cornell could beat any one of those groups, but no two of them, never mind three.
  4. Exactly. The probability can be both small and largest at the same time.
  5. I just saw this in WIN Magazine (just $15 for a 1 year online sub? Yes, please, and thank you). https://athletics.uchicago.edu/news/2024/11/6/wrestling-adds-jason-tsirtsis-to-their-staff.aspx My alma mater is investing in wrestling. Nice.
  6. The good news is we will probably get a lot more of these: https://news.artnet.com/market/maurizio-cattelans-viral-banana-sells-for-6-24-million-at-sothebys-2571327 I just read that the buyer is a crypto dude. Of course he is.
  7. You can generally get third or fourth (on the podium) with 4 AAs if there are at least 1 champ or 2 in the second and third range. Absent that you probably need 5.
  8. As high as #12, as low as #16 pre-injury per Intermat. Wrestlestat started him in the teens, then had him in the 20's late in the year (around the time he was injured). 9/27/2023 16 Paddy Gallagher Ohio State 11/28/2023 16 Paddy Gallagher Ohio State 12/4/2023 13 Paddy Gallagher Ohio State 12/27/2023 12 Paddy Gallagher Ohio State 1/3/2024 12 Paddy Gallagher Ohio State 1/9/2024 16 Paddy Gallagher Ohio State
  9. It can go one of two ways. Gensler took the position that the existing regulations were sufficient. But when real projects tried to comply they were refused or charged with violations. Some of them have taken to the courts to settle this (and have had some wins, hence spot bitcoin ETFs). In the process, some incumbents in the crypto industry have asked for crypto-specific regulation. Maybe they will finally get it with the new SEC chair. But writing those regulations will be a lot of work and that is very hard to do. So maybe they won't get new regs, just less enforcement of the old regs.
  10. Gary Gensler has been very anti-crypto as the head of the SEC. That is about to change. Not Gensler's view of crypto, but the SEC's approach to regulating it. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/21/sec-chair-gensler-will-step-down-jan-20-making-way-for-trump-replacement.html
  11. 2019 Freshman 2020 Let's not talk about it 2021 Free year 2022 Junior 2023 Finding himself redshirt (it is there, but you have to read between the lines) 2024 Oh yeah, I am "trying" out for the Olympics redshirt. I can still do that after the fact, right? Then, yeah. 2025 My first love has always, been will always be, WWE, NFL, MMA, interpretive dance, NCAA wrestling.
  12. I wouldn't say hold my beer, necessarily, but I would put them second. From a points perspective Their high low range is about 16, whereas OSU's is about 23. But given how Cornell outperformed their seeds last year, you cannot discount them for the podium even though the rankings have them in the five (Wrestlestat) to nine slot (Flo).
  13. When I brought up record turnover in Trump's last administration I was told this time he had a plan. Perhaps he needs to check in with Pyles on plans development.
  14. Stay safe @mspart
  15. Would anyone be surprised if the My Pillow guy is the replacement nominee?
  16. Wrestlestat's team scores alog underestimate for 7 - 33 and overestimate for 1-6. Since Minnesota has a 9 of 10 wrestlers in the 7 - 33 range the wrestlestat algo will always be conservative.
  17. I am surprised that with the addition of Steveson more people are not piling on the Minnesota bandwagon.
  18. The consensus in the podium poll is that Ohio State will be on it. But when I look at the ranking services (Intermat, Flo, Wrestlestat) there is anything but consensus. Ohio State is probably the team with the least amount of agreement. Bouzakis at 133 (High to Low Diff of 6), Gallagher at 157 (HLD 8), Kharchla at 174 (HLD 6), Geog at 197 (HLD 10), and especially Sasso at 165 (HLD 9) have some pretty wide ranges of opinion. For Sasso the difference in expected point scoring potential between 2/3 and 11 is something like 9-12 points. Flo and Wrestlestat's rankings seem high on Sasso given all that has happened. Geog had a rough end to last year and already has a lose this year, so who knows. And with Kharchla yet to wrestle after coming off injury he is another who knows. To me Ohio State is the most intriguing team this year.
  19. Nothing really head scratching about them when you consider we have done the same thing two elections in a row, elected an old man with diminishing mental capacity. This one happens to like watching Fox News late at night so it is not particularly surprising that he will rely on Fox News personalities and the subjects of Fox News stories. Disappointing, yes. Surprising, no.
  20. Tag team
  21. No, she doesn't.
  22. Hmmm. 82 votes so far. Someone didn't follow instructions.
  23. BTW wrestlestat agrees with you on 5 out of 6. The only difference is that they have Josh Bar starting for PSU at 197.
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