jackwebster Posted March 14 Posted March 14 (edited) What's more likely 8 Penn State champs or 3 Ohio State champs? I say the former. Edited March 14 by jackwebster
Hammerlock3 Posted March 14 Posted March 14 i think tOSU has one finalist. "Half measures are a coward's form of insanity."
BruceyB Posted March 14 Posted March 14 Just now, jackwebster said: What's more likely 8 Penn State champs or 3 Ohio State champs? I say the former. For the sake of looking for 8 champs let's say: 125: Favorite of the bracket 133: 50/50 match in the semis, 50/50 match in the finals 141: No champ 149: Favorite of the bracket 157: Favorite of the bracket 165: Lock for champ 174: Lock for champ 184: Lock for finalist, 50/50 match-up in the finals (I'd probably put him more like 45/55 after big10s despite him winning. Both Ferrari and McEnelly were closer to scoring than he was). 197: Lock for champ 285: I think Mirasola could beat anyone in the bracket, but I don't see him stringing together 4 tough wins in a row. His path is rough. No champ. That puts us with 3 champions to start, 3 other favorites, and 2 guys that would be 50/50 if they make the finals. I don't think LL, SVN, and PJ are all going to win. I think LL is the most likely to win, but is vulnerable in the semis and finals. I would take the field over SVN. He narrowly escaped 2 losses en route to his B10 title, and he's going to likely face Frost, Swiderski, and Gaj just to get to the finals. I have him taking 3rd. PJ looked unbelievable at B10s, and he was really able to snowball his momentum into dominant wins against Cannon and Taylor. Come tournament time, I think he's going to have 3 very hard matches against Cardenas/Cannon, Robideau/Larkin, and his finals opponent. I would give a slight edge towards the field here. With Blaze having to beat Drake and Davino just to get to the finals, I'd put him under 50% to make the finals. I don't think he's even been in on a shot against Davino through 18+ minutes of wrestling this season. I'd give him probably like a 20-25% chance of winning given his path. I think the biggest benefit to Rocco is that he's such a heavy favorite to make the finals, which really only leaves him what we expect to be a coinflip match against whoever makes it out of the bottom. This is probably way more analysis than anyone cares to read, but I just decided to "show my work" when reaching the conclusion that Penn State is simply not going to have 8 champions. I'd pick tOSU to get three champs over PSU to get 8, simply because there are fewer things that need to go right to make that happen. 1 1
GV4444 Posted March 14 Posted March 14 PSU 8 = 1.5% tOSU 3 = 1.875% 1 Dispassionate Penn State grad and fan.
1032004 Posted March 14 Posted March 14 tOSU 3 definitely 125 65% Lilledahl 133 or 285 30% Blaze (25%) /Mirasola (5%) 149 55% SVN 157 50% Duke 165 95% Mesenbrink 174 75% Haines 184 40% Welsh 197 75% Barr = 1.1% 141 Mendez 95% 133 or 157 or 174 33% Davino (25%) / Cannon (5%) / Kharchla 3% 125 or 285 or 184 30% Bouzakis (15%) / Feldman (12.5%) / Fishback 2.5% = 10% 1
BAC Posted March 15 Posted March 15 On 3/13/2026 at 10:31 PM, 1032004 said: tOSU 3 definitely 125 65% Lilledahl 133 or 285 30% Blaze (25%) /Mirasola (5%) 149 55% SVN 157 50% Duke 165 95% Mesenbrink 174 75% Haines 184 40% Welsh 197 75% Barr = 1.1% 141 Mendez 95% 133 or 157 or 174 33% Davino (25%) / Cannon (5%) / Kharchla 3% 125 or 285 or 184 30% Bouzakis (15%) / Feldman (12.5%) / Fishback 2.5% = 10% This. PSU needs to have a perfect tournament to have 8 champs. I agree that's like 1%. Maybe less, as I think Liledahl's odds are way lower than 65% with his nightmare draw, For OH State, Mendez is a lock and I personally favor Davino at 133. A third champ could plausibly come from the many guys who are within reaching distance of everyone in their bracket -- Bouzakis, Feldman, Fishback. Kharchla has a dream draw, as he doesn't hit Haines until after he tangles with Facundo, who's beaten Haines before. Even Cannon can make a run if Duke gets hurt. 10% seems about right. 1
AgaveMaria Posted March 15 Posted March 15 Ryan has ordered a few cases of Cael Cookies & is in the back room inserting ExLax chocolates into them. The plan is to give them to Penn State wrestlers a few hours before they hit the mats. A diabolical one, that Tom Ryan. ” Never attribute to inspiration that which can be adequately explained by delusion”.
ionel Posted March 15 Posted March 15 11 minutes ago, AgaveMaria said: Ryan has ordered a few cases of Cael Cookies & is in the back room inserting ExLax chocolates into them. The plan is to give them to Penn State wrestlers a few hours before they hit the mats. A diabolical one, that Tom Ryan. Is it true Ryan contracted with Dr. Phillips for pre-testing? .
MPhillips Posted March 15 Posted March 15 14 minutes ago, ionel said: Is it true Ryan contracted with Dr. Phillips for pre-testing? .
cl415 Posted March 15 Posted March 15 Ohio State. 125, 133, 141, 149, 157 and 285 have a non zero chance of winning. 8 is insane.
jackwebster Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 (edited) 13 hours ago, cl415 said: 8 is insane. It has been for the whole history of the NCAA tournament. But, PSU has an unprecedented number of 1 seeds and an unprecedented record of wrestling at or above seed at this tournament. Fewer than 7 champs means that they have underperformed. THAT'S insane. They only need one guy to wrestle above seed, and this guy has recent wins over the two guys seeded ahead of him. For tOSU to get 3, they would need 2 guys to over-perform. I would say neither will happen, but PSU re-writes the definition of success every year. Edited March 16 by jackwebster
Spladle Posted March 16 Posted March 16 Probably should have put the line at PSU 7 champs vs Ohio State getting 2. PSU definitely not winning 141 or 285. OSU definitely not winning 149, 157 (health), 165, 174, 184 or 197. Biggest favorites are PSU 165 and OSU 141. PSU 197 not far behind. 125 PSU favored but wouldn’t be shocked if OSU won that weight. 133 both have decent chances, PSU 149 should win as well as 174. PSU 184 decent chance, as well as OSU 285 at least has a small chance. Add all of that math up and PSU line is 6.5, OSU line is 1.5. 1
Hilton Head Joe Posted March 16 Posted March 16 How many more until Cael breaks Gable's record? I'm officially tired of PSU. I am a fan. My sons are good friends with a couple of the former wrestlers and one current one. But I have had enough. What is Gable's record? 13 titles? Cael break it soon and then retire please! We need sanity back to NCAA wrestling. Unless Taylor starts hoarding like Cael did. I sure hope not. But 8 champs is basically an Olympic team guys. That isn't fair!
1032004 Posted March 16 Posted March 16 32 minutes ago, Spladle said: Probably should have put the line at PSU 7 champs vs Ohio State getting 2. PSU definitely not winning 141 or 285. OSU definitely not winning 149, 157 (health), 165, 174, 184 or 197. Biggest favorites are PSU 165 and OSU 141. PSU 197 not far behind. 125 PSU favored but wouldn’t be shocked if OSU won that weight. 133 both have decent chances, PSU 149 should win as well as 174. PSU 184 decent chance, as well as OSU 285 at least has a small chance. Add all of that math up and PSU line is 6.5, OSU line is 1.5. I’d still say tOSU 3 is definitely more likely than PSU 7. Using my numbers from earlier that’s still only a 3.8% chance. 6 PSU vs tOSU 3 would be PSU though. That puts them at 9.6% chance. Sorry I incorrectly rounded tOSU’s chances up to 10% earlier, it’s actually 9.4%
11986 Posted March 16 Posted March 16 58 minutes ago, Hilton Head Joe said: How many more until Cael breaks Gable's record? I'm officially tired of PSU. I am a fan. My sons are good friends with a couple of the former wrestlers and one current one. But I have had enough. What is Gable's record? 13 titles? Cael break it soon and then retire please! We need sanity back to NCAA wrestling. Unless Taylor starts hoarding like Cael did. I sure hope not. But 8 champs is basically an Olympic team guys. That isn't fair! Iowa won 15 with Gable in charge
Hilton Head Joe Posted March 16 Posted March 16 14 minutes ago, 11986 said: Iowa won 15 with Gable in charge O shoot. So Cael needs 4 more!
jackwebster Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 (edited) 1 hour ago, 1032004 said: I’d still say tOSU 3 is definitely more likely than PSU 7. Using my numbers from earlier that’s still only a 3.8% chance. 6 PSU vs tOSU 3 would be PSU though. That puts them at 9.6% chance. Sorry I incorrectly rounded tOSU’s chances up to 10% earlier, it’s actually 9.4% Thank you for seriously considering my mania. If you're up for it, what about another? What's more likely, 2 PSU champs or 8? Edited March 16 by jackwebster
1032004 Posted March 16 Posted March 16 2 minutes ago, jackwebster said: Thank you for seriously considering my mania. If you're up for it, what about another? What's more likely, 2 PSU champs or 8? 8 for sure. Mesenbrink + at least 2 of the others seems pretty much guaranteed to me. I think a closer question would be what’s more likely between 2 champs or 9.
AgaveMaria Posted March 16 Posted March 16 7 hours ago, Hilton Head Joe said: How many more until Cael breaks Gable's record? I'm officially tired of PSU. I am a fan. My sons are good friends with a couple of the former wrestlers and one current one. But I have had enough. What is Gable's record? 13 titles? Cael break it soon and then retire please! We need sanity back to NCAA wrestling. Unless Taylor starts hoarding like Cael did. I sure hope not. But 8 champs is basically an Olympic team guys. That isn't fair! Iowa won 15 in 21 seasons. Cael has 12 in 16 seasons. Actually 15 seasons as 2020 was cancelled due to Covid. Cael did three seasons as head coach at Iowa State before moving to Penn State. Gable was assistant Coach at Iowa under Gary Kurdelmeier where they won 2 NCAA titles - the first time Iowa won it all & a good start to replacing Iowa State as the top program in the State. Cael & Penn State is good for college wrestling. When they come to town the stands are full. Just like when Iowa shows up. With OSU and Taylor now in the mix things will only get better. ” Never attribute to inspiration that which can be adequately explained by delusion”.
1032004 Posted March 21 Posted March 21 (edited) On 3/16/2026 at 9:23 AM, Spladle said: Probably should have put the line at PSU 7 champs vs Ohio State getting 2. PSU definitely not winning 141 or 285. OSU definitely not winning 149, 157 (health), 165, 174, 184 or 197. Biggest favorites are PSU 165 and OSU 141. PSU 197 not far behind. 125 PSU favored but wouldn’t be shocked if OSU won that weight. 133 both have decent chances, PSU 149 should win as well as 174. PSU 184 decent chance, as well as OSU 285 at least has a small chance. Add all of that math up and PSU line is 6.5, OSU line is 1.5. On 3/16/2026 at 9:57 AM, 1032004 said: I’d still say tOSU 3 is definitely more likely than PSU 7. Using my numbers from earlier that’s still only a 3.8% chance. 6 PSU vs tOSU 3 would be PSU though. That puts them at 9.6% chance. Sorry I incorrectly rounded tOSU’s chances up to 10% earlier, it’s actually 9.4% Sorry I totally misread this post, but obviously if I thought even tOSU 3 was more likely than PSU 7, then I thought tOSU 2 was much more likely than PSU 7. tOSU can still get 2 tonight, PSU can not get 7. Edited March 21 by 1032004 1
Nevaeh Lavarias Pearl City High School, Hawaii Class of 2027 Committed to Kent State Projected Weight: 124
Braeden Simoneaux New York Military Academy, Louisiana Class of 2027 Committed to Wyoming Projected Weight: 184, 197
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