CHROMEBIRD Posted February 18 Author Posted February 18 6 minutes ago, poke1 said: Here's a thought for you... Let's say Jax wins it this year. How do you not give the Hodge to him?? -He wrestles the first half of the year in High School. -He wrestles the second half of the year in College. -He's a true freshman! -He runs through the hardest weight class (possibly ever)! -How could you not give it to him, he would be the first ever to do it against those odds!!! I agree with this, but who knows if they'd give the award to someone who competes for just half a season. Jax will probably finish with around 16 total matches, give or take. Is that enough? Mendez and MM's match counts will be in the upper 20s if they run the table.
bnwtwg Posted February 18 Posted February 18 32 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said: Thanks for posting that. Those neat margins look suspiciously @bnwtwg though... i am an idiot on the internet
RawDog Posted February 18 Posted February 18 If blaze beats Messenbrink does he have a legit shot at the hodge?
ionel Posted February 18 Posted February 18 16 minutes ago, RawDog said: If blaze beats Messenbrink does he have a legit shot at the hodge? Never gonna happen. .
Psalm 1 guy Posted February 18 Posted February 18 It is interesting that Barr is the only other wrestler with a 100% bonus rate and he never gets mentioned in the Hodge talk.
PortaJohn Posted February 19 Posted February 19 38 minutes ago, Psalm 1 guy said: It is interesting that Barr is the only other wrestler with a 100% bonus rate and he never gets mentioned in the Hodge talk. Underclassmen problem. Only three have won it and this years crop has one too many stud upperclassmen. I Don't Agree With What I Posted
CHROMEBIRD Posted February 19 Author Posted February 19 2 hours ago, ionel said: Never gonna happen. Also, calling it now, there's a zero percent chance that Forest wins the Hodge.
Jimmy Cinnabon Posted February 19 Posted February 19 The reality is the award is Mendez's to lose. If he wins title #3 this year he wins the Hodge, period. It doesn't matter if Mesenbrink and Hodge are both undefeated and 100% bonus rates.
ionel Posted February 19 Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said: Also, calling it now, there's a zero percent chance that Forest wins the Hodge. No chance of Bryd either. .
CHROMEBIRD Posted February 19 Author Posted February 19 22 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: The reality is the award is Mendez's to lose. If he wins title #3 this year he wins the Hodge, period. It doesn't matter if Mesenbrink and Hodge are both undefeated and 100% bonus rates. No way Mendes wins it
MLB9 Posted February 19 Posted February 19 39 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: The reality is the award is Mendez's to lose. If he wins title #3 this year he wins the Hodge, period. It doesn't matter if Mesenbrink and Hodge are both undefeated and 100% bonus rates. It’s not good practice to deal in absolutes, Jimmy. Unless they both lose, however, it is hard to imagine it won’t be one of those two. I’d rank them: 1. Messenbrink 2. Mendes 3. Haynes 4. Vaness 5. Bard I think someone like Shapyro or Basteeda could sneak in there, but there seems to be more parity at those weights. The above five are all undefeated and pretty solid individual favorites. MM, JM, and possibly LH could be considered favorites against the field. I think it takes that kind of guy beforehand and after the fact to generally win the award.
ScottishSteel Posted February 19 Posted February 19 13 hours ago, poke1 said: Here's a thought for you... Let's say Jax wins it this year. How do you not give the Hodge to him?? -He wrestles the first half of the year in High School. -He wrestles the second half of the year in College. -He's a true freshman! -He runs through the hardest weight class (possibly ever)! -How could you not give it to him, he would be the first ever to do it against those odds!!! Because none of those are criteria for the Hodge? Irrationally proud former WPIAL wrestler No Scotland, No Party . . . Go Beavs
RawDog Posted February 19 Posted February 19 11 hours ago, RawDog said: If blaze beats Messenbrink does he have a legit shot at the hodge? 11 hours ago, ionel said: Never gonna happen. That's what everyone was saying about Hendrickson and Gable. Yet Hendrickson beat Gable and then won the Hodge.
He Rassle Posted February 19 Posted February 19 9 minutes ago, RawDog said: That's what everyone was saying about Hendrickson and Gable. Yet Hendrickson beat Gable and then won the Hodge. True, but Hendrickson was dominate with a high bonus rate, Blaze is not.
He Rassle Posted February 19 Posted February 19 14 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: Factor in quality of competition though Does anyone know any Hodge voters and whether they have a go-to method for determining strength of opponent?
juniorvarsity Posted February 19 Posted February 19 I am confused why everyone thinks it's a two man race when there are so guys who can be undefeated national champs with high bonus percentages. Messenbrink has the 100% bonus, but he has not had a tough schedule. Barr also has 100% bonus, and I would argue Barr has had a tougher schedule than Messenbrink. I would even argue that Haines has had a tougher schedule then Messenbrink but has two decision wins against #4 and Gabe Arnold. Van Ness has not had a tough schedule.
TAC Posted February 19 Posted February 19 I think if you have been watching these guys, and looking at the stats, it is obviously beween MM and Mendez, if either is still undefeated. Barr is probably next in line due to his 100% bonus rate. Van Ness, and Haines are at 88%, but they will have some other close matches, They could both go undefeated but their bonus rate should drop a little or a lot. Blaze is in the same boat, but also I think he will take a loss somewhere along the way, too many tough matches coming up. Barr could easily go undefeated and bonus his way through. ( I think he will get to Elam's legs ) MM could and should bonus his way through with the exception of Blaze, and maybe Lockett. Mendez the same, with maybe only Vega keeping it close with him. I do think there is a greater chance Vega beats Mendez, than either Lockett or Blaze beating MM. Mendez & MM will go undefeated...It will be a close vote with both being very deserving of the award.
Nak21 Posted February 19 Posted February 19 I think it’s still fairly wide open. MM and Mendez are the likely favorites but there’s a handful of guys with a chance if they remain undefeated and do so in bonus fashion. Example. Levi likely has 9 matches left in his career. Princeton, probably 3 at Bigs and likely 5 at NCAAs. What if those 9 go - 3 pins, 3-4 TFs and 2-3 MDs…with MDs or TFs happening on big stages like Bigs finals, NCAA finals. Given what he’s done all year that could vault him into the favorite spot if others on the list MD and Dec their way to titles. Still lots of wrestling to go and it’s the matches for all the marbles now, I would think they count more in the minds of voters.
PortaJohn Posted February 19 Posted February 19 (edited) 1 hour ago, juniorvarsity said: Messenbrink has the 100% bonus, but he has not had a tough schedule. He's beaten 3 in the top 10: Caliendo, Arajuo, & Brignola & 2 more in the top 20: Lillard & Gallagher. His schedule is arguably harder or at least equal to Mendez, Barr, & Haines Edited February 19 by PortaJohn I Don't Agree With What I Posted
ionel Posted February 19 Posted February 19 2 hours ago, RawDog said: That's what everyone was saying about Hendrickson and Gable. Yet Hendrickson beat Gable and then won the Hodge. But Hendrickson didn't beat Stevenson. .
Jimmy Cinnabon Posted February 19 Posted February 19 (edited) Another reason this is a stone cold lock for Mendez is he wins out....Penn State will split the vote at least 2 ways, possibly 3 or 4 ways if Mesenbrink, Barr, Haines and Lilledahl all finish undefeated. Again, if Mendez wins out, it's his. This is the least uncertain year in terms of Hodge voting in the last decade at least. Edited February 19 by Jimmy Cinnabon
RawDog Posted February 19 Posted February 19 3 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: Another reason this is a stone cold lock for Mendez is he wins out....Penn State will split the vote at least 2 ways, possibly 3 or 4 ways if Mesenbrink, Barr, Haines and Lilledahl all finish undefeated. Again, if Mendez wins out, it's his. This is the least uncertain year in terms of Hodge voting in the last decade at least.
Psalm 1 guy Posted February 19 Posted February 19 4 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: Another reason this is a stone cold lock for Mendez is he wins out....Penn State will split the vote at least 2 ways, possibly 3 or 4 ways if Mesenbrink, Barr, Haines and Lilledahl all finish undefeated. Again, if Mendez wins out, it's his. This is the least uncertain year in terms of Hodge voting in the last decade at least. I think it would be more fair for the Hodge to go to a Ranked Choice voting format. Regarding the comparison between Mendez and Mesenbrink, Dicemen99 had this to say over on Penn State's On3 forum: Mitch - 100% (1st) bonus, 5.28 (1st) dominance rating, 14 match terminations in 17 contested bouts Jesse - 89.5% (4th) bonus, 4.89 (4th) dominance rating, 14 match terminations in 19 contested bouts Mitch's RPI is 2nd, has faced two top-10 guys twice: Caliendo - MD Arajuo - TF Jesse's RPI is 2nd has faced three top-10 guys 5 times Hardy - Dec, MD Ech - Dec Vombaur - MD, TF Jesse with extra matches against the top 10, but Jesse went DEC, DEC, MD in the extra 3 matches. Pretty hard to extrapolate that Mitch doesn't do at least that good, and via track record you should expect him to do better. As it stands, in the matches wrestled he did perform better. Two extra top 5 matches where Jesse went DEC, DEC. Neither of them are losing to these guys, so...
juniorvarsity Posted February 20 Posted February 20 12 hours ago, PortaJohn said: He's beaten 3 in the top 10: Caliendo, Arajuo, & Brignola & 2 more in the top 20: Lillard & Gallagher. His schedule is arguably harder or at least equal to Mendez, Barr, & Haines Mendez has beaten Hardy x2, Echemendia x2, Vombaur x2, Bailey, and Davis. That doesn't seem equal to Messenbrink. On second thought though, MM has a slight edge to Haines and Barr on strength if schedule.
Sy Strobel West-Oak, South Carolina Class of 2027 Committed to Appalachian State Projected Weight: 184
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