Way to Early Big 10 Projections

[bracketbuster]

This is based solely off WrestleStat projected starters and rankings so huge shout out once again to them. I thought this would be fun to get a way to early look at conference rankings. Freshman with not a ton of matches will be lower than what they probably are in the season since they haven’t had a chance to build their algorithm resume yet. And most of the lineups could be TBD.

Interactive Bracket

Team Projections
1. Penn State – 140.5
2. Iowa – 114.5
3. Ohio State – 111.5
4. Nebraska – 89.5
5. Minnesota – 77.5
t6. Illinois – 71.5
t6. Michigan – 71.5
8. Rutgers – 52.5
9. Wisconsin – 48.5
10. Purdue – 30.5
11. Indiana – 25
12. Maryland – 19
13. Northwestern – 6.5
14. Michigan State – 2.5

125 lbs.
#1 Luke Lilledahl (PSU): 1 WS
#2 Dean Peterson (IOWA): 4 WS
#3 Nicolar Rivera (WIS): 8 WS
#4 Jore Volk (MINN): 13 WS
#5 Brendan McCrone (OSU): 14 WS
#6 Jacob Moran (IND): 15 WS
#7 Spencer Moore (ILL): 20 WS
#8 Dedrick Navarro (NW): 23 WS
#9 Diego Sotelo (MICH): 25 WS
#10 Kael Lauridsen (NEB): 31 WS
#11 Caleb Weiand (MSU): 43 WS
#12 Ayden Smith (RUT): 44 WS
#13 Ashton Jackson (PUR): 45 WS
#14 Abram Cline (MD): 49 WS

133 lbs.
#1 Lucas Byrd (ILL): 2 WS
#2 Drake Ayala (IOWA): 3 WS
#3 Zan Fugitt (WIS): 5 WS
#4 Braeden Davis (PSU): 6 WS
#5 Ben Davino (OSU): 7 WS
#6 Jacob VanDee (NEB): 9 WS
#7 Dylan Ragusin (MICH): 13 WS
#8 Braxton Brown (MD): 14 WS
#9 Dylan Shawver (RUT): 15 WS
#10 Blake Boarman (PUR): 21 WS
#11 Logan Frazier (IND): 42 WS
#12 Massey Odiotti (NW): 44 WS
#13 Blake Beissel (MINN): 70 WS
#14 Bryce Shingleton (MSU): 74 WS

141 lbs.
#1 Jesse Mendez (OSU): 1 WS
#2 Brock Hardy (NEB): 2 WS
#3 Vance Vombaur (MINN): 6 WS
#4 Sergio Lemley (MICH): 7 WS
#5 Nasir Bailey (IOWA): 8 WS
#6 Joey Olivieri (RUT): 9 WS
#7 Danny Pucino (ILL): 12 WS
#8 Greyson Clark (PUR): 19 WS
#9 Frankie Tal-Shahar (NW): 21 WS
#10 Henry Porter (IND): 31 WS
#11 Dario Lemus (MD): 44 WS
#12 Cael Nasdeo (PSU): 45 WS
#13 Brock Bobzien (WIS): 54 WS
#14 Jaden Crumpler (MSU): 60 WS

149 lbs.
#1 Shayne VanNess (PSU): 2 WS
#2 Lachlan McNeil (MICH): 4 WS
#3 Ethan Stiles (OSU): 5 WS
#4 Jordan Williams (IOWA): 6 WS
#5 Chance Lamer (NEB): 11 WS
#6 Andrew Clark (RUT): 13 WS
#7 Joseph Zargo (WIS): 18 WS
#8 Drew Roberts (MINN): 22 WS
#9 Michael Gioffre (ILL): 23 WS
#10 Sam Cartella (NW): 29 WS
#11 Kal Miller (MD): 30 WS
#12 Joey Butler (IND): 43 WS
#13 Gavin Brown (PUR): 50 WS
#14 Clayton Jones (MSU): 66 WS

157 lbs.
#1 Tyler Kasak (PSU): 1 WS
#2 Antrell Taylor (NEB): 3 WS
#3 Joey Blaze (PUR): 6 WS
#4 Kannon Webster (ILL): 10 WS
#5 Charlie Millard (MINN): 11 WS
#6 Brandon Cannon (OSU): 12 WS
#7 Conner Harer (RUT): 29 WS
#8 Cam Catrabone (MICH): 31 WS
#9 Victor Voinovich (IOWA): 33 WS
#10 Ty Wilson (NW): 39 WS
#11 Darius Marines (MSU): 49 WS
#12 Luke Mechler (WIS): 55 WS
#13 AJ Rodriguez (MD): 56 WS
#14 Ryan Garvick (IND): 71 WS

165 lbs.
#1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU): 1 WS
#2 Michael Caliendo (IOWA): 2 WS
#3 Christopher Minto (NEB): 3 WS
#4 Beau Mantanona (MICH): 6 WS
#5 Braeden Scoles (ILL): 8 WS
#6 Andrew Sparks (MINN): 10 WS
#7 Paddy Gallagher (OSU): 15 WS
#8 Andrew Barbosa (RUT): 16 WS
#9 Tyler Lillard (IND): 19 WS
#10 Cody Goebel (WIS): 26 WS
#11 Gunnar Myers (NW): 30 WS
#12 John MartinBest (MD): 41 WS
#13 Stoney Buell (PUR): 44 WS
#14 Duke Meyers (MSU): 70 WS

174 lbs.
#1 Levi Haines (PSU): 1 WS
#2 Patrick Kennedy (IOWA): 3 WS
#3 Lenny Pinto (RUT): 4 WS
#4 Brock Mantanona (MICH): 9 WS
#5 Carson Kharchla (OSU): 10 WS
#6 Clayton Whiting (MINN): 21 WS
#7 LJ Araujo (NEB): 22 WS
#8 Brody Baumann (PUR): 25 WS
#9 Derek Gilcher (IND): 28 WS
#10 Branson John (MD): 29 WS
#11 Lucas Condon (WIS): 32 WS
#12 Chris Moore (ILL): 33 WS
#13 Aiden Vandenbush (NW): 57 WS
#14 Ryan Boucher (MSU): 60 WS

184 lbs.
#1 Angelo Ferrari (IOWA): 1 WS
#2 Max McEnelly (MINN): 2 WS
#3 Jaxon Smith (MD): 3 WS
#4 Silas Allred (NEB): 4 WS
#5 Rocco Welsh (PSU): 5 WS
#6 Edmond Ruth (ILL): 8 WS
#7 Dylan Fishback (OSU): 10 WS
#8 Sam Goin (IND): 13 WS
#9 Shane Cartagena-Walsh (RUT): 16 WS
#10 James Rowley (PUR): 26 WS
#11 Cory Thomas (MSU): 44 WS
#12 Codei Khawaja (MICH): 61 WS
#13 Dylan Russo (WIS): 62 WS
#14 Matt Kubas (NW): 66 WS

197 lbs.
#1 Josh Barr (PSU): 1 WS
#2 Seth Shumate (OSU): 8 WS
#3 Camden McDaniel (NEB): 9 WS
#4 Gabe Sollars (IND): 10 WS
#5 Gavin Nelson (MINN): 15 WS
#6 Wyatt Ingham (WIS): 20 WS
#7 Remy Cotton (RUT): 22 WS
#8 Ben Vanadia (PUR): 26 WS
#9 Hayden Walters (MICH): 28 WS
#10 Cade Lautt (ILL): 34 WS
#11 Jack Darrah (MD): 39 WS
#12 Kael Wisler (MSU): 40 WS
#13 Massoma Endene (IOWA): 73 WS
#14 Alex Smith (NW): 79 WS

285 lbs.
#1 Nick Feldman (OSU): 3 WS
#2 Ben Kueter (IOWA): 5 WS
#3 Luke Luffman (ILL): 8 WS
#4 Taye Ghadiali (MICH): 9 WS
#5 Braxton Amos (WIS): 14 WS
#6 Hunter Catka (RUT): 16 WS
#7 Cole Mirasola (PSU): 17 WS
#8 Hayden Filipovich (PUR): 21 WS
#9 Nick Pavlechko (IND): 36 WS
#10 Oscar Williams (MD): 41 WS
#11 Max Vanadia (MSU): 42 WS
#12 Harley Andrews (NEB): 46 WS
#13 Dirk Morley (NW): 63 WS
#14 Koy Hopke (MINN): 74 WS

[bnwtwg]

I keep seeing Edmond Ruth and I don't understand how he has eligibility. Since he was previously enrolled (and burned his redshirt) I don't get how 2022 could be a grey shirt year according to the D1 time-from-HS graduation-clock. I realize that basically anyone can do whatever they want or sue the NCAA but I'm genuinely confused.

2020 Lehigh redshirt

2021 free year at Lehigh, no matches 0-0 record

2022 not enrolled. This should count as a year as mentioned above?

2023 Illinois R12

2024 Illinois 7th

2025 Illinois R12

That's five in four years plus the free covid year unless my math ain't mathin'

 

[ionel]

35 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

I keep seeing Edmond Ruth and I don't understand how he has eligibility. Since he was previously enrolled (and burned his redshirt) I don't get how 2022 could be a grey shirt year according to the D1 time-from-HS graduation-clock. I realize that basically anyone can do whatever they want or sue the NCAA but I'm genuinely confused.

2020 Lehigh redshirt

2021 free year at Lehigh, no matches 0-0 record

2022 not enrolled. This should count as a year as mentioned above?

2023 Illinois R12

2024 Illinois 7th

2025 Illinois R12

That's five in four years plus the free covid year unless my math ain't mathin'

 

He's Byrd's long lost illegitimate son.  If Byrd can wrestle Ruth can wrestle.  

[scourge165]

2 hours ago, bracketbuster said:

157 lbs.
#1 Tyler Kasak (PSU): 1 WS
#2 Antrell Taylor (NEB): 3 WS

I might be inclined to bet on Kasak...but Taylor just won the National Championship and... he's a stud. 

Feels like the defending champ should be #1

2 hours ago, bracketbuster said:

184 lbs.
#1 Angelo Ferrari (IOWA): 1 WS
#2 Max McEnelly (MINN): 2 WS
#3 Jaxon Smith (MD): 3 WS
#4 Silas Allred (NEB): 4 WS
#5 Rocco Welsh (PSU): 5 WS
#6 Edmond Ruth (ILL): 8 WS

Aside from the confusion over Ruth, just...no.

You have McEnelly who pushed Starocci and Keck to the limit, scored on Starocci and he's #2.

Rocco Welsh is #5? A guy who already took a 2nd as a True Freshmen?

Ferrari certainly belongs in the mix, but...I don't see how you have anyone ahead of McEnelly and then Welsh at this point. 

 

I'm also confused how 1-5 is B1G and there's no Sinclair in there, but...that's not a B1G issue.

 

Also, is Iowa really gonna waste a year of Arnold? I don't know how they avoid it unless Ferrari goes '97...which I don't know if he does if his Brother is wrestling(I don't know what's going on there). 

 

This is a BIG year for Iowa. I want to see Jordan Williams Wrestling a full 7 minutes and attacking. If he can do that, he's got MASSIVE upside. 

[nhs67]

8 hours ago, scourge165 said:

I might be inclined to bet on Kasak...but Taylor just won the National Championship and... he's a stud. 

Feels like the defending champ should be #1

Wrestlestat ratings, brotha - not rankings.  It goes off all the results, not just the last tournament (which should probably be factored in, I agree).  Also, Kasak destroyed Taylor twice last season.  Destroyed.  Whereas Taylor lost to Blaze, Kasak, Kasak, and Askey.

Again:  Ratings, not rankings, determined by a formula taking all results in to account.

8 hours ago, scourge165 said:

Aside from the confusion over Ruth, just...no.

You have McEnelly who pushed Starocci and Keck to the limit, scored on Starocci and he's #2.

Rocco Welsh is #5? A guy who already took a 2nd as a True Freshmen?

Ferrari certainly belongs in the mix, but...I don't see how you have anyone ahead of McEnelly and then Welsh at this point. 

 

I'm also confused how 1-5 is B1G and there's no Sinclair in there, but...that's not a B1G issue.

 

Also, is Iowa really gonna waste a year of Arnold? I don't know how they avoid it unless Ferrari goes '97...which I don't know if he does if his Brother is wrestling(I don't know what's going on there). 

 

This is a BIG year for Iowa. I want to see Jordan Williams Wrestling a full 7 minutes and attacking. If he can do that, he's got MASSIVE upside. 

Sinclair is currently 'ranked' at 197 on Wrestlestat, that is why he isn't there.

Also add in that he had two Major Decision losses (Plott, #5@184 and Buchanan, #1@197lbs) and two regular decision losses (Volker, 12@197 and Smith, #23@197), and his rating is only good for 1517.39 on Wrestlestat's Elo system.  That is good enough for #8 at 197lbs and #9 at 184lbs.

In media rankings wrestlers will get a pass on some losses, especially as the season progresses.  That doesn't happen with wrestlestat's ratings system.  Unfortunately, a loss to Smith in November is just as damning as a loss to Smith in February.

As far as McEnelly?  He had a lot of close wins.  Those don't help when using a computer program that factors in margin of victory (a 4-1 OT victory of Bullock, for example).

Ferrari's close matches were to Plott (victory) and Starocci.

Edited June 6 by nhs67

[scorenomore]

133 - I think Davino is better than Davis but not better than Blaze.  I suspect Blaze wrestles 5 matches and gets his shirt pulled after Christmas as is #1.  If not, then Davino > Davis.

141 - Bailey had both hands wrapped up like he was a boxer.  Hopefully whatever was going on is cured and he gets his pop back up a weight class.  I think Vombaur struggles with the weight and I put Bailey at 3.

149 - Stiles is on an upward trajectory while Van Ness and Lachlan I think have too many miles on them for folkstyle.  I think Stiles gets tougher going against 2x NCAA champ on a daily basis and is B1G champ!

157 - I think Millard is the real deal and would put him at 3rd behind Kasak and Taylor.  After seeing Cannon at U23, he looked like a full-size 165 already.  I think Paddy is forced to drop back to 157 and places where Cannon is projected. 

165 - I'd put Cannon at 3rd

174 - Mantanona is a hammer on top, I think he takes 3rd

184 - As others have mentioned, Rocco should be higher.  I think he is #1.  Fishback might have some upside returning to Ohio, I put him at 3rd.

197 - Geog likely starts and should be behind McDanal

285 - I'm going to take some heat on this one but something feels off with Feldman, maybe 6th?  Mirasola will quietly improve throughout the season and finish 3rd at B1G.

 

[bnwtwg]

9 hours ago, ionel said:

He's Byrd's long lost illegitimate son.  If Byrd can wrestle Ruth can wrestle.  

I mean I'm not complaining that a potential AA gets another year. But Byrd had a medical, Ruth just didn't like Lehigh.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

21 minutes ago, scorenomore said:

141 - Bailey had both hands wrapped up like he was a boxer.  Hopefully whatever was going on is cured and he gets his pop back up a weight class.  I think Vombaur struggles with the weight and I put Bailey at 3.

I heard that Bailey has had or will get some sort of surgery.

[MNRodent]

A lot of new faces at 125.

[Winners Circle]

1 hour ago, scorenomore said:

141 - Bailey had both hands wrapped up like he was a boxer.  Hopefully whatever was going on is cured and he gets his pop back up a weight class.  I think Vombaur struggles with the weight and I put Bailey at 3.

Normally I'd agree with this, but he's done this most of his college career which makes me wonder if he does this for some kind of grip advantage. See below pic from his freshman year NCAAs. 

[The Kid]

5 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

I mean I'm not complaining that a potential AA gets another year. But Byrd had a medical, Ruth just didn't like Lehigh.

You do know why the Lehigh thing didn't work out, right brother?

[bnwtwg]

43 minutes ago, The Kid said:

You do know why the Lehigh thing didn't work out, right brother?

Oh yeah, sure, act like the engineers at Lehigh don't enjoy the occasional mind-altering experience!

[The Kid]

5 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Oh yeah, sure, act like the engineers at Lehigh don't enjoy the occasional mind-altering experience!

They always bragged about how test their weed was over there....lol

[Ohio Elite]

6 hours ago, scorenomore said:

133 - I think Davino is better than Davis but not better than Blaze.  I suspect Blaze wrestles 5 matches and gets his shirt pulled after Christmas as is #1.  If not, then Davino > Davis.

Marcus Blaze last folkstyle loss was to Davino at Ironman...

Rocco has no offense, defense is legit tho...

[wolverine09]

I think Lauridsen, VanDee, Araujo and maybe Alfred are under ranked from Nebraska. I also think with a year of experience now McDaniel ia better than Shumate from Ohio State

. I just wish Nebraska could get someone from thportal like Trumble if he would transfer home to replace Andrews, although Cade Ziola will be the long term future there

   I agree with the Kasak ranking over Taylor based on last year's results BTW the two, but will Kasak remain at 157 or move to 166 and zMessenbrink move to 174? My prognostications could shakeup the team projection totals for sure. I see 2nd -5th as a ? Just like last year! I will fall back on Nebraska's coaching to be the difference plus 6 AAs' returning.

[Winners Circle]

1 minute ago, wolverine09 said:

I think Lauridsen, VanDee, Araujo and maybe Alfred are under ranked from Nebraska. I also think with a year of experience now McDaniel ia better than Shumate from Ohio State

. I just wish Nebraska could get someone from thportal like Trumble if he would transfer home to replace Andrews, although Cade Ziola will be the long term future there

   I agree with the Kasak ranking over Taylor based on last year's results BTW the two, but will Kasak remain at 157 or move to 166 and zMessenbrink move to 174? My prognostications could shakeup the team projection totals for sure. I see 2nd -5th as a ? Just like last year! I will fall back on Nebraska's coaching to be the difference plus 6 AAs' returning.

Where does that leave Haines?

[RandolphTJones]

16 hours ago, ionel said:

He's Byrd's long lost illegitimate son.  If Byrd can wrestle Ruth can wrestle.  

I swear going through this list I thought to myself at least 3 times "Oh I didn't know he was back" (Byrd, Ruth, Allred Amos, etc.)

[nhs67]

45 minutes ago, Winners Circle said:

Where does that leave Haines?

This year's MFS senior rep at 79 KG (174lbs) will have to retire from Folkstyle.

[nhs67]

48 minutes ago, wolverine09 said:

I think Lauridsen, VanDee, Araujo and maybe Alfred are under ranked from Nebraska. I also think with a year of experience now McDaniel ia better than Shumate from Ohio State

. I just wish Nebraska could get someone from thportal like Trumble if he would transfer home to replace Andrews, although Cade Ziola will be the long term future there

   I agree with the Kasak ranking over Taylor based on last year's results BTW the two, but will Kasak remain at 157 or move to 166 and zMessenbrink move to 174? My prognostications could shakeup the team projection totals for sure. I see 2nd -5th as a ? Just like last year! I will fall back on Nebraska's coaching to be the difference plus 6 AAs' returning.

Allred is overranked.  There are wrestlers ranked below him that he will lose to, without a doubt.

[ionel]

10 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Allred is overranked.  There are wrestlers ranked below him that he will lose to, without a doubt.

turdbiscits! 

[feet2back]

3 Tiers this season

1- Penn State, Iowa

2- Ohio State, Michigan , Rutgers, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota

3- Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Maryland, Michigan State

[ionel]

23 minutes ago, feet2back said:

3 Tiers this season

1- Penn State, Iowa

2- Ohio State, Michigan , Rutgers, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota

3- Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Maryland, Michigan State

How is Iowa possibly in the same tier as Penn St.  How many would Iowa win out of 10 duals? 

[poorwrestler]

How is Iowa possibly in the same tier as Penn St.  How many would Iowa win out of 10 duals? 

Nebraska > Iowa


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[nhs67]

4 hours ago, feet2back said:

3 Tiers this season

1- Penn State, Iowa

2- Ohio State, Michigan , Rutgers, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota

3- Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Maryland, Michigan State

No.  Just... no.

Tier 1 - Penn State

Tier 2 - Empty

Nobody is sniffing Penn State.  Ergo, there is no Tier 2.

Tier 3 - Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio State

Tier 4 - Rutgers, Michigan

Tier 5 - Minnesota, Illinois

Tier 6 - EMPTY

Tier 7 - Maryland, Purdue

Tier 8 - Northwestern, Michigan State

Might need to move Tier 4 in to Tier 5 and leave Tier 3 on an island as well.

[poorwrestler]

No.  Just... no.
Tier 1 - Penn State
Tier 2 - Empty
Nobody is sniffing Penn State.  Ergo, there is no Tier 2.
Tier 3 - Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio State
Tier 4 - Rutgers, Michigan
Tier 5 - Minnesota, Illinois
Tier 6 - EMPTY
Tier 7 - Maryland, Purdue
Tier 8 - Northwestern, Michigan State
Might need to move Tier 4 in to Tier 5 and leave Tier 3 on an island as well.

In what world is Rutgers a tier above Minnesota


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