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If You Hate Penn State Do Not Open This Thread

Wrestleknownothing

By Wrestleknownothing
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Wrestleknownothing Big Brain

Wrestleknownothing

Posted
Posted

Someone on HVI asked me to calculate the odds of PSU finishing with just 1 champion. Here is what I came up with.

There are a couple ways to look at this.

  • Using odds generated from the entire field between 2010 and 2024, and assuming the current Flo rankings will also be the seeds, the most likely outcome is 3 champions. There is even an infinitely small chance of 10 champs (0.0000172%)

But PSU has always performed better than the field.

  • If we use odds generated from PSU's results over the same time frame, the most likely outcome jumps up to 5 champions. However, the odds of 9 or 10 go to zero as PSU has not had a #4 or #8 win in that window.
  • In this scenario there is even a 32.5% chance PSU breaks the record and finishes with 6+ champions. Nuts.

image.png.55d4a521e95aa1dc5d9c72f00eb55dee.png
The big difference is the #1 and #2 seeds.

  • For the field including PSU #1 seeds won 52.14% of the time, but PSU #1 seeds won 80.77% of the time.
  • For the field including PSU #2 seeds won 19.29% of the time, but PSU #2 seeds won 42.11% of the time.

Of course, the B1G tournament results will go a long way toward determining the actual seeds. I will update this at that time.

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Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

SocraTease NCAA All-American

SocraTease

Posted
Posted (edited)

Ben is searching for tickets to attend this year's NCAAs in his home-town of Philadelphia and, if necessary, to revise his reputed remark with the conditional: "... and perhaps Penn State wrestling."

Death, Taxes and Inequality | Timothy Kaelin, MBA, MS, CMA, CSCA

Edited by SocraTease
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Gene Mills Fan College Redshirt

Gene Mills Fan

Posted
Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Gene Mills Fan said:

If You Dislike Penn State Why Did You Open This Thread Anyways

By Jimmy Mean Gene

 3 minutes ago in College Wrestling

Truthfully I love watching them wrestle! Its not a hate thing. But sometimes I need a class or two. My name is Mean Gene 'I do not hate PSU'. Why are they so fricken good!

Edited by Gene Mills Fan
timmcnaughton3294 Novice

timmcnaughton3294

Posted
Posted
Someone on HVI asked me to calculate the odds of PSU finishing with just 1 champion. Here is what I came up with.
There are a couple ways to look at this.
  • Using odds generated from the entire field between 2010 and 2024, and assuming the current Flo rankings will also be the seeds, the most likely outcome is 3 champions. There is even an infinitely small chance of 10 champs (0.0000172%)
But PSU has always performed better than the field.
  • If we use odds generated from PSU's results over the same time frame, the most likely outcome jumps up to 5 champions. However, the odds of 9 or 10 go to zero as PSU has not had a #4 or #8 win in that window.
  • In this scenario there is even a 32.5% chance PSU breaks the record and finishes with 6+ champions. Nuts.
image.png.55d4a521e95aa1dc5d9c72f00eb55dee.png
The big difference is the #1 and #2 seeds.
  • For the field including PSU #1 seeds won 52.14% of the time, but PSU #1 seeds won 80.77% of the time.
  • For the field including PSU #2 seeds won 19.29% of the time, but PSU #2 seeds won 42.11% of the time.
Of course, the B1G tournament results will go a long way toward determining the actual seeds. I will update this at that time.
Now I have a headache

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D3 for LU Big Brain

D3 for LU

Posted
Posted (edited)

Mr. Jinks sez:

i-hates-meeses-mr-jinks.png

but he hates those &%#@$$+?}$% nits even worse than meeses!

(... so does yours truly. )

D3

Edited by D3 for LU

Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.

1032004 Big Brain

1032004

Posted
Posted

I don’t think this should surprise anyone, although I might disagree with 5 champs as “most likely” even when considering PSU’s history.  Not doubting your numbers I just think the specific circumstances of this year are lower chances than historically.  Most notably Kerk at the 2 and Bartlett and Kasak as current 1’s.

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Jimmy Cinnabon Big Brain

Jimmy Cinnabon

Posted
Posted
Just now, BarSeries said:

2 for sure. As many as 6 if SVN, Kasak, Haines, and Bartlett pull it off. 

141 Don't see Bartlett beating Mendez at B10s and then Mendez/Alirez at NCAAs.

149 has a lot of parity. SVN has to get through Henson, Parco and Lovett.

157 Kasak I would favor if not for the concussion/injury issues.

174 Haines isn't beating KOT.

 

Wrestleknownothing Big Brain

Wrestleknownothing

Posted
  • Author
Posted
2 minutes ago, GimJustafan said:

what about 125,133 - ?

both, either or neither place top 8 ?

If Lilledahl is the #8 seed (current Flo and Intermat ranks) he has a 46.5% chance of top 8.

If Davis is the #4 seed (current Flo rank) he has a 75.6% chance of top 8. As the #6 seed (current Intermat rank) his chances drop to 60.6% for top 8.

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Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

Truzzcat NCAA Champion

Truzzcat

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Someone on HVI asked me to calculate the odds of PSU finishing with just 1 champion. Here is what I came up with.

There are a couple ways to look at this.

  • Using odds generated from the entire field between 2010 and 2024, and assuming the current Flo rankings will also be the seeds, the most likely outcome is 3 champions. There is even an infinitely small chance of 10 champs (0.0000172%)

But PSU has always performed better than the field.

  • If we use odds generated from PSU's results over the same time frame, the most likely outcome jumps up to 5 champions. However, the odds of 9 or 10 go to zero as PSU has not had a #4 or #8 win in that window.
  • In this scenario there is even a 32.5% chance PSU breaks the record and finishes with 6+ champions. Nuts.

image.png.55d4a521e95aa1dc5d9c72f00eb55dee.png
The big difference is the #1 and #2 seeds.

  • For the field including PSU #1 seeds won 52.14% of the time, but PSU #1 seeds won 80.77% of the time.
  • For the field including PSU #2 seeds won 19.29% of the time, but PSU #2 seeds won 42.11% of the time.

Of course, the B1G tournament results will go a long way toward determining the actual seeds. I will update this at that time.

You are an impressive human being.

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I am the personal property of VakAttack

bnwtwg Big Brain

bnwtwg

Posted
Posted

I would just like to point out that either Haines or KOT will end up "only" being a 2 time champ when it's all said and done. Add in Carr's [offseason] win last night and it speaks volumes of the incoming group manning 70-74-79. For the record, I did have this to say after Haines' outstanding frosh year but I didn't into account jumping 2 weight classes to clash with KOT.

 

 

  • Fire 1

i am an idiot on the internet

AgaveMaria NCAA All-American

AgaveMaria

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, D3 for LU said:

Mr. Jinks sez:

i-hates-meeses-mr-jinks.png

but he hates those &%#@$$+?}$% nits even worse than meeses!

(... so does yours truly. )

D3

Careful, you & the cat might be prosecuted for Hate Crimes and promoting violence.

” Never attribute to inspiration that which can be adequately explained by delusion”.

1032004 Big Brain

1032004

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BarSeries said:

I'm thinking 2.

They’re getting at least 3 for sure.  Mesenbrink, Starocci, and at least one of the rest.  Even if somehow one of Mesenbrink or Starocci don’t win, they could easily get 2+ from the rest.  4 is most likely IMO, would not be surprised at all by 5 or probably even 6.  

Edited by 1032004
Pin Head Novice

Pin Head

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, BarSeries said:

2 for sure. As many as 6 if SVN, Kasak, Haines, and Bartlett pull it off. 

I think the above is the most probable outcome. Mesenbrink is my only lock. However, looking at the possible

brackets it is not out of the question for PSU to duplicate the 2001 Minnesota team and have 10 AA's and no champion.

There are multiple high-end challengers at the top 8 weight classes. Just a thought.

Old age and treachery will always overcome youth and exuberance.

1032004 Big Brain

1032004

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Pin Head said:

I think the above is the most probable outcome. Mesenbrink is my only lock. However, looking at the possible

brackets it is not out of the question for PSU to duplicate the 2001 Minnesota team and have 10 AA's and no champion.

There are multiple high-end challengers at the top 8 weight classes. Just a thought.

 It is out of the question that they will have no champions

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