O'Toole vs Haines odds

[Pish]

5 hours ago, BruceyB said:

Based on what? His 100% bonus rate this year? He's a Jr World Champ that I'm fairly certain has Worlds and Olympics on his mind.

He was up by 1 or 2 with about 30 seconds left against Braunagle. Ended up taking him to the back for the major. 
 

Levi going to take it to him. I see a controlled 6-2 6-3 match. 2 takedowns to none. 
 

Two great champions, I just think Levi looks like he’s built for this weight, Keegan seems a little weaker. 

[BAC]

3 hours ago, red viking said:

His interview after he lost to Carr last year. 

Here's a more recent interview if you haven't seen it.  If by "next chapters" you mean he got married, I dunno. He does make some comments about making her his priority, but at the same time he seems pretty dialed in and also says he'll continue competing in freestyle after he graduates. Seems like a good kid. 

 

 

[Truzzcat]

Keegan is stellar out of the crackdown position that's where he beat carr when they wrestled. Levi has an uncanny ability to get his knees under him and pull shots in perhaps that situation plays out differently if keegan can funk and leg pass, but I feel like thats going to be a crucial point in the matchup and I give the edge to levi there.

[Gus]

2 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

Keegan is stellar out of the crackdown position that's where he beat carr when they wrestled. Levi has an uncanny ability to get his knees under him and pull shots in perhaps that situation plays out differently if keegan can funk and leg pass, but I feel like thats going to be a crucial point in the matchup and I give the edge to levi there.

It should be a great match. With O'Toole's crackdown position and scrambling/leg pass ability, this could look like an entirely different match than a freestyle match. 

[Winners Circle]

I give Haines the slightest of edges. Not because of the freestyle results, however. But because of Penn State's history in big matches. If it's a true toss up, those matches almost always go their way (especially in the NCAA finals).

[PortaJohn]

On 12/13/2024 at 10:43 PM, PortaJohn said:

Yes & No.  When using freestyle to predict folk outcomes the best we can do is assess the positions/sequences that most reflect folk.  Watching their match it is clear KOT (like others) struggled with Levi's neutral defense.   The missing ingredient in their match was the mat wrestling which KOT is very solid  at and is a strength of his.  But at the same time Levi although not as savvy at mat wrestling as KOT is stout in those positions himself.  On the mat he has had a good track record of maintaining position, is very strong, and has good situational awareness.  It will be a hell of a chess match.

@BruceyB there you go.  The mat wrestling/scrambling was the difference 

[Pinnacle]

KOT was masterful in avoiding that late single leg, then won the next scramble. Awesome wrestling. 

[BAC]

Razor thin.  Props to Keegan.  What a chess match.

[MLB9]

Gonna be some wild ones at 174 in March between those two and Hamiti. Looking like 1. KOT 2. Haines 3. Hamiti at this point? 

[PortaJohn]

4 minutes ago, MLB9 said:

Gonna be some wild ones at 174 in March between those two and Hamiti. Looking like 1. KOT 2. Haines 3. Hamiti at this point? 

Hamiti will probably get a crack at KOT twice before NCAA's barring any ducks or mayhem at Big 12's.  We'll see if there is a Taylor effect

[ionel]

1 minute ago, PortaJohn said:

Hamiti will probably get a crack at KOT twice before NCAA's barring any ducks or mayhem at Big 12's.  We'll see if there is a Taylor effect

I don't see Hamiti wrestling this type of match.  Something's gonna give a bit earlier.  

[PortaJohn]

12 minutes ago, ionel said:

I don't see Hamiti wrestling this type of match.  Something's gonna give a bit earlier.  

Hope he doesn't.  Not his style.  Might have to dust off the old Carr/KOT videos but wasn't KOT always susceptible to the outside/sweep single to his right leg?  Might work with Hamiti's lengths.  

[Gus]

1 hour ago, MLB9 said:

Gonna be some wild ones at 174 in March between those two and Hamiti. Looking like 1. KOT 2. Haines 3. Hamiti at this point? 

I think Hamiti is in this tier. People forget that Hamiti was undefeated going into Big 10’s last year and was winning against Mesenbrink before it looked like something happened in the match and he proceeded to lose 13-11. 

[BruceyB]

2 hours ago, Gus said:

I think Hamiti is in this tier. People forget that Hamiti was undefeated going into Big 10’s last year and was winning against Mesenbrink before it looked like something happened in the match and he proceeded to lose 13-11. 

Something happened being that not many can hold up against the unrelenting pressure of Mesenbrink. I'm not a PSU guy, but MM puts on a pressure that matches, or I would argue surpasses that pace that peak Metcalf put on his opponents. You can score early, but you also have to be able to hold him off in the third. 

When it comes to Hamiti, I think he is close to the level, but he's definitely an underdog going into a match against either. I don't think those matches are a toss up, but I think he's close enough that if he wrestles a great match, he can certainly pull an upset.