Interesting stats on TD scoring change from 2 to 3

[Caveira]

Probably the biggest take away:

So far, there’s no evidence that increasing the match point values for takedowns and near falls generated any more ‘action’ or scoring activity. Indeed, scoring activity is down slightly with the T3 rules (2.4 TD per match when 2 points to 2.2 TD per match when 3 ~8.3% decline)

https://www.levelchanger.com/blog/2024/5/7/impact-of-ncaa-wrestling-scoring-changes

 

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

11 minutes ago, Caveira said:

Probably the biggest take away:

So far, there’s no evidence that increasing the match point values for takedowns and near falls generated any more ‘action’ or scoring activity. Indeed, scoring activity is down slightly with the T3 rules (2.4 TD per match when 2 points to 2.2 TD per match when 3 ~8.3% decline)

 

Thanks for posting.

I would be interested in which college teams use their software. 

The results at the NCAA tournament were slightly different. There was a drop in pin falls, possibly due to the rise in tech falls.

[WrestlingRasta]

I’m not sure that 2.4 to 2.2 equals less action, there could be a lot of other factors in such a small variance….most notably the emphasis this year on allowing for reaction time in neutral.  How many times did we see a sequence this past year not result in a takedown, that would have been a clear takedown the year before? And knowing and adjusting to that tends to lead the wrestlers wrestling through situations more, which, creates more action.  
 

(just playing devils advocate) 

Edited June 9 by WrestlingRasta

[nhs67]

3 hours ago, WrestlingRasta said:

I’m not sure that 2.4 to 2.2 equals less action, there could be a lot of other factors in such a small variance….most notably the emphasis this year on allowing for reaction time in neutral.  How many times did we see a sequence this past year not result in a takedown, that would have been a clear takedown the year before? And knowing and adjusting to that tends to lead the wrestlers wrestling through situations more, which, creates more action.  
 

(just playing devils advocate) 

We weren't talking about it for one of every five matches, which would have put the numbers even.

I do agree that 2.4 to 2.2 doesn't equate to a drop (less TD per tech could also help equate to it).

[MNRodent]

I wasn't strongly opposed to or in favor of the 3 pt change, but the whole thing seemed a lot like the Spinal Tap "this one goes to 11" bit.  

 

Edited June 9 by MNRodent

[ionel]

14 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The results at the NCAA tournament were slightly different. There was a drop in pin falls, possibly due to the rise in tech falls.

They dropped just like Martian sightings last year.  Highly correlated ... you do the math.  

[NorthCarolina]

Whether it increased action or not, I’m unsure. 
 

But it inarguably rewarded the wrestler who was creating the action. 

[jchapman]

39 minutes ago, NorthCarolina said:

Whether it increased action or not, I’m unsure. 
 

But it inarguably rewarded the wrestler who was creating the action. 

Except when it rewarded the counter wrestler.

[MNRodent]

I wonder what percent of takedowns in NCAA wrestling are scored by the guy initiating the shot vs. the counter/reattack  scores?  Are we at 70/30, 60/40?

[alex1fly]

20 hours ago, MNRodent said:

I wonder what percent of takedowns in NCAA wrestling are scored by the guy initiating the shot vs. the counter/reattack  scores?  Are we at 70/30, 60/40?

This would be a fascinating metric. Would be pretty cool to see this on individual wrestlers, even

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

On 6/9/2024 at 5:22 AM, WrestlingRasta said:

I’m not sure that 2.4 to 2.2 equals less action, there could be a lot of other factors in such a small variance….most notably the emphasis this year on allowing for reaction time in neutral.  How many times did we see a sequence this past year not result in a takedown, that would have been a clear takedown the year before? And knowing and adjusting to that tends to lead the wrestlers wrestling through situations more, which, creates more action.  
 

(just playing devils advocate) 

Just some thoughts (as a ref/coach/fan/parent) and not directed specifically at WKN, but wrestling fans as a whole:

There has always been reaction time, just not from rear standing.  It disappeared for about a decade from rear standing, but existed everywhere else.

Kind of crazy, that we went from 2023 complaining about zero reaction time (rear standing) to complaining about too much reaction time in 2024.

I am not sure anything changed, other than the rear standing rule.  However, when a ref blows a call, more people are going to see it than 20 years ago.  Youtube, flo, Big 10, ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, etc.

As an official, I always try to let positions play out and am very verbal about control.  I'd rather be a little late on a takedown than early.  Coaches don't always like it, but I am pretty up front with them.

(and I did see some bad calls regarding reaction time this year, but refs are probably no worse than they ever have been)

Edited June 10 by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[ionel]

1 hour ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Just some thoughts (as a ref/coach/fan/parent) and not directed specifically at WKN, but ...

As an official, I always try to let positions play out ...

... but as such how do you feel about letting @Wrestleknownothing's fictitious pinfall play out?  

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

3 minutes ago, ionel said:

... but as such how do you feel about letting @Wrestleknownothing's fictitious pinfall play out?  

I love calling pins! And pinfalls!

[fishbane]

On 6/8/2024 at 7:15 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Thanks for posting.

I would be interested in which college teams use their software. 

The results at the NCAA tournament were slightly different. There was a drop in pin falls, possibly due to the rise in tech falls.

The rise in tech falls could also possibly explain a drop in TDs and scoring actions per match.  Since the point value of the TD increased the TF now requires potentially fewer scoring actions.  The matches ending in TF could result in lopsided matches being cut short after fewer scoring actions.  I don't know if this explains the decrease, but I think a first step in investigating it could be to normalize by wrestling time instead of number of matches.  So a match that ending in TF 1:30 into the second period the number of scoring actions would be divided by 4.5, the number of minutes wrested in the match.  Alternatively one could look at the per match metric and exclude matches that end early (TF and Fall matches that went less than 7:00).

[Wrestleknownothing]

21 minutes ago, fishbane said:

The rise in tech falls could also possibly explain a drop in TDs and scoring actions per match.  Since the point value of the TD increased the TF now requires potentially fewer scoring actions.  The matches ending in TF could result in lopsided matches being cut short after fewer scoring actions.  I don't know if this explains the decrease, but I think a first step in investigating it could be to normalize by wrestling time instead of number of matches.  So a match that ending in TF 1:30 into the second period the number of scoring actions would be divided by 4.5, the number of minutes wrested in the match.  Alternatively one could look at the per match metric and exclude matches that end early (TF and Fall matches that went less than 7:00).

there is a guy on Happy Valley Insider who has done exactly that for all the PSU wrestlers for years.

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Just some thoughts (as a ref/coach/fan/parent) and not directed specifically at WKN, but wrestling fans as a whole:

There has always been reaction time, just not from rear standing.  It disappeared for about a decade from rear standing, but existed everywhere else.

Kind of crazy, that we went from 2023 complaining about zero reaction time (rear standing) to complaining about too much reaction time in 2024.

I am not sure anything changed, other than the rear standing rule.  However, when a ref blows a call, more people are going to see it than 20 years ago.  Youtube, flo, Big 10, ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, etc.

As an official, I always try to let positions play out and am very verbal about control.  I'd rather be a little late on a takedown than early.  Coaches don't always like it, but I am pretty up front with them.

(and I did see some bad calls regarding reaction time this year, but refs are probably no worse than they ever have been)

Taking strays here.

[NorthCarolina]

On 6/9/2024 at 12:42 PM, jchapman said:

Except when it rewarded the counter wrestler.

Whether initiating the shot or counting a shot, it is still action. 

[Caveira]

If they reveal the raw data this isn’t a subjective question.     Did some quick math based 100% on a few assumptions.  
 

1.   100% take down and release.  No ride outs etc (I know this is wrong but I was board). 
2.  Tech old rules was 15 take downs new is 8. 
3.   Major is 10 to 5.   Trying to get in the middle here …. I.e.  all majors aren’t 8 point victories.  

with that model total take downs is down by 19%…. Roughly double the 8% posted above.
 

    Obv a riding point.    Ride outs end of period and back points eat into that too.   I bet someone could come up with a more accurate model.  

[jackwebster]

19 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

There has always been reaction time, just not from rear standing.  It disappeared for about a decade from rear standing, but existed everywhere else.

Kind of crazy, that we went from 2023 complaining about zero reaction time (rear standing) to complaining about too much reaction time in 2024.

I am not sure anything changed, other than the rear standing rule.

Could you clarify what you mean when you say that there has always been reaction time? Are you saying that the recent rule change only concerned rear standing?

In any event, I think what most folks didn't like about the no reaction time rule were calls like this: https://www.facebook.com/FloWrestling/videos/midnightsnackjosh-kindig-sends-drake-houdashelt-over-the-top/1177188199001680/

Edited June 11 by jackwebster

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

11 minutes ago, jackwebster said:

Could you clarify what you mean when you say that there has always been reaction time? Are you saying that the recent rule change only concerned rear standing?

In any event, I think what most folks didn't like about the no reaction time rule were calls like this: https://www.facebook.com/FloWrestling/videos/midnightsnackjosh-kindig-sends-drake-houdashelt-over-the-top/1177188199001680/

The "no reaction time" rule only applied to rear standing.  It existed for about a decade and then was eliminated this past year, after several high profile situations. (The first of which was a Max Dean loss where he hit a standing granby)

[jackwebster]

5 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

The "no reaction time" rule only applied to rear standing.  It existed for about a decade and then was eliminated this past year, after several high profile situations. (The first of which was a Max Dean loss where he hit a standing granby)

I must have misunderstood that rule for a decade. I thought they had eliminated reaction time for any takedown situation. As a result, we got calls that first year like the one in the Kindig vs Houdashelt match. I'm a dummy. 

Edited June 11 by jackwebster

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

2 minutes ago, jackwebster said:

I must have misunderstood that rule for a decade. I thought they had eliminated reaction time for any takedown situation. As a result, we got calls that first year like the one in the Kindig vs Houdashelt match. I'm a dummy. 

I think a lot of people thought that this year and started acting like reaction time was a new thing.

[jackwebster]

3 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

I think a lot of people thought that this year and started acting like reaction time was a new thing.

I think some of the refs misses it too.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

7 minutes ago, jackwebster said:

I must have misunderstood that rule for a decade. I thought they had eliminated reaction time for any takedown situation. As a result, we got calls that first year like the one in the Kindig vs Houdashelt match. I'm a dummy. 

The NCAA Playing Rules Oversight Panel on Thursday approved making all takedowns in wrestling worth 3 points, effective with the 2023-24 season.

Members of the Wrestling Rules Committee, which proposed the change, agreed that increasing the scoring for takedowns by an additional point will enhance the sport by rewarding offensive actions and risk-taking. 

The committee also agreed there was a need to create a more appropriate point differential between takedowns and escapes and incentivize offense when competitors are in the neutral position.

Eliminating the hand-touch takedown also was approved by the panel. Rules committee members think demonstrating control is an important component of college wrestling, so it made sense to eliminate the hand-touch takedown in favor of a single requirement for all takedowns.  

To help balance the new takedown scoring rule, there also are new requirements for the top wrestler to work toward a near fall or pin. A 3-point near-fall scoring component was added. 

Previously, officials could award 2 or 4 points for near falls. The rationale for the rule change includes giving wrestlers a chance to be more creative in attempting to earn points.

Video review

Panel members also approved a change to the coach's video review request. 

The rule change provides the referee with the authority to confirm or overturn all calls or missed calls during a video review challenged sequence. For coach's challenges, the sequence is described as the time from the alleged error until the match is, or should have been, stopped by the referee. 

Other rule changes

• The first medical forfeit of a tournament will count as a loss on the wrestler's record. An exception will be if the medical forfeit occurs immediately after an injury default in a tournament.
• The penalty for a delayed coach's video review challenge request will be changed to a loss of the video review. Previously, it was a control-of-mat violation and 1-point deduction from the team total.
• Any true placement matches conducted in an event will not alter the final team score.
• Officials can let action continue after penalizing an illegal hold and not require a stoppage after imminent scoring finishes when the safety of wrestlers is not in danger.
• The current mandatory five-second count for the waist and ankle ride will be expanded to include all situations in which the top wrestler grasps the bottom wrestler's ankle. 
• Weigh-in times across all competition types will be standardized to two hours or sooner before the start of competition. Previously, tournament weigh-ins were two hours or sooner, but dual meet weigh-ins were permitted only one hour or sooner before the start of competition. 
• Weight certification for all schools will be permitted to start Sept. 1.

The rule limiting facial hair to no longer than half an inch has been eliminated.

[MNRodent]

13 hours ago, NorthCarolina said:

Whether initiating the shot or counting a shot, it is still action. 

True, but as the risk/reward of either getting a takedown on your shot or getting countered approaches 50/50 both wrestlers will naturally become more conservative in their shot taking no matter how many points a takedown is worth.

I think the key is to somehow reward the wrestler that initiates action.