What kind of tournament will it be?

[Wrestleknownothing]

Will it be full of upsets? Or will it going according to chalk (love that expression)?

In the 8 or more seed, 8 place era (1979 to present), the number of AAs that come from the top 8 seeds has been trending higher. Clearly, the seeding process has gotten better/more accurate over time.

But there is a lot of volatility around that trend. By this measure, last year was a relative down year for top 8 seeds i.e. good for upsets.

But 2022 was also a year of the top dog. Every champion was either a #1 seed or a #2 seed. That has only happened three other time since 1979. I guess 2022 was a barbell year. A lot of upsets for #3 - #8, but domination from the top 2.

 

So what is it going to be? A lot of upsets? Or a year of coronations of the kings? Or some from  the left column and some from the right column?

[Scouts Honor]

i think there will be many  'upsets' , based on the seeds given.

b/c I am not a big fan of the seeding

[D3 for LU]

... it feels like I'm at a Statistical Process Control class.

Will this weeks tournament be a STABLE process, or will it be Out of Control, due to excessive variations?

Stay Tuned, SPC geeks... all will be answered soon.

D3

[Eagle26]

I’d guess similar to last year. 8 or 9 out of 10 champs from top two seeds (I’d say 9 or 10 if you include top 3 seeds), but a fair amount of upsets to make AA

[ionel]

Wkn's graphs just show how bad the seeding process is and that something needs to be done, its out of control!!  We read all the time on these here boards how seeding is messed up and teams and individual wrestles are getting bad draws.  This just reinforces the point that when the wrong guys get the #1 & #2 seeds there's really nothing the true 1 & 2s can do about it, you can't overcome a bad draw.  Its a travesty!! 

[Red Blades]

10 minutes ago, ionel said:

Wkn's graphs just show how bad the seeding process is and that something needs to be done,

Or maybe they demonstrate how futile the seeding process is?  I'm in the camp that says there is no way to know the results with certainty until they wrestle.

 

Embrace the upsets!

Edited March 15, 2023 by Red Blades

[ionel]

3 minutes ago, Red Blades said:

Or maybe they demonstrate how futile the seeding process is?  I'm in the camp that says there is no way to know the results with certainty until they wrestle.

 

Embrace the upsets!

Embrace the random draw!

Just wrestle!

The good ole days. 

[bnwtwg]

17 minutes ago, ionel said:

Embrace the random draw!

Just wrestle!

The good ole days. 

I mean let's not go fulllllllll Fargo. Nothing worse than not placing when you lost to 1st and 3rd by 2 points combined and no I'm not bitter why do you ask

[CHROMEBIRD]

3 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

In the 8 or more seed, 8 place era (1979 to present), the number of AAs that come from the top 8 seeds has been trending higher. Clearly, the seeding process has gotten better/more accurate over time.

I don't know if that's a fair conclusion. Seeding by nature is biased and creates matchup gaps where the higher seed is likely to advance. One example, if someone who should be a 10 seed gets the 8, he would face the #25, 9/24, and 1/16/17/32/33 seeds on the frontside. If he got the 10 seed, he could run into the 2, 3, 6, 7, and/or 11.

[Wrestleknownothing]

7 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

I don't know if that's a fair conclusion. Seeding by nature is biased and creates matchup gaps where the higher seed is likely to advance. One example, if someone who should be a 10 seed gets the 8, he would face the #25, 9/24, and 1/16/17/32/33 seeds on the frontside. If he got the 10 seed, he could run into the 2, 3, 6, 7, and/or 11.

After I hit send I was wondering if anyone would point this out.

[ionel]

1 minute ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

After I hit send I was wondering if anyone would point this out.

Bob gave you 15 minutes.  

[D3 for LU]

4 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

After I hit send I was wondering if anyone would point this out.

 

4 hours ago, ionel said:

Bob gave you 15 minutes.  

I think the point is taken.

D3

[AKHUNTER]

6 hours ago, ionel said:

Wkn's graphs just show how bad the seeding process is and that something needs to be done, its out of control!!  We read all the time on these here boards how seeding is messed up and teams and individual wrestles are getting bad draws.  This just reinforces the point that when the wrong guys get the #1 & #2 seeds there's really nothing the true 1 & 2s can do about it, you can't overcome a bad draw.  Its a travesty!! 

I think people say......"whoever" got a bad draw is simply referencing the tough road to winning or AAing. Not usually that they got screwed... tho that happens as well on occasion.

[MPhillips]

8 hours ago, ionel said:

Bob gave you 15 minutes.  

You had fifteen minutes...

[ionel]

Just now, MPhillips said:

You had fifteen minutes...

you still have 14 ...

[Lipdrag]

12 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Clearly, the seeding process has gotten better/more accurate over time.

Fewer schools, fewer wrestlers, more of the top wrestlers see each other (or duck!) in 2023 vs 1979.  Much less variation of input resulting in less variation of output is not very surprising..  I don't think the seeders are more wise even with all of the computational power now applied to the system.  I think it is a matter of tighter input variation.  Also, that trend line really is pretty flat.  It projects to an increase of fewer than 10 more top 8 seeds making AA over a 50 year period.  Another way to say it - the seeders improved by less than 1 more AA every 4 years according to the best fit line.  Take into account the standard deviation of the yearly difference around that best fit line and we are nearly at a distribution showing no discernible trend.  Throw out the first decade (maybe when the seeders did get smarter and applied computer analysis) and the horizontal-ness of the line becomes even more apparent.

Now, going back to the original question:  I am hoping for the many upsets tournament.  My favorite team is having a down year and has no chance get any team hardware so I am more interested in my low seed fantasy wrestlers from schools I don't care about winning to keep me interested clear until Saturday afternoon.

Edited March 16, 2023 by Lipdrag
Clarifying and sharpening my brilliant points.