I think Bartlett and SVN both have a much higher likelihood of going 3rd or better than they do of going 4th or lower.
A lot of AAs departed (Yianni, Murin, Yahya, Gomez) and may clear out more if Sasso goes up, and SVN is coming off of his first, only real season of collegiate wrestling. He's going to make additional gains this year. The only guy he's lost to that returns is Paniro, and he beat him resoundingly at NCAAs. Ridge returns at 149 but I think SVN might beat him in a dual, at B1Gs and at NCAAs. He took three higher seeds out at NCAAs with Paniro (5 seed), Parco (3 seed, 4th place) and Hensen (4 seed, 5th place). He's going to clean up some of that wildness and improve from neutral. Maybe he'll even learn how to sprawl at some point. Lovett returns, but while he's very good, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see SVN beat him.
Bartlett is in a similar position. NCAA champ at the weight expected to take an OLY. Bartlett wrestles his own match; he's extremely difficult to score on and picks his spots. Went 8-3 against AAs last year, with losses to Hardy, Alirez and Woods. Confidence has to be really high right now with a 3rd place finish at NCAAs and taking Nick Lee to a 10-10 loss on criteria.
Like I said in another thread, there are going to be some Top-10 level teams who would get shut out by PSU this year. Very few will get more than 2 wins. Iowa likely won't break into double digits at the dual, with Penn State taking every weight from 149 on up if Messenbrink goes.