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fishbane

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Everything posted by fishbane

  1. There is a risk, but the potential rewards are larger than the bonus for having an individual champ. Getting a small time team into the top 10 is the kind of thing that lands you a big job. Both Jack Spates and Mark Cody turned small programs into top 10 teams which landed them the OU job. The risk should be somewhat less at a mid or lower program. Scott Moore didn't lose his job when Marsteller got arrested at Lock Haven after being shown the door at OSU. Sure it might get you fired at Princeton or Duke or Davidson or somewhere like that, but if you pick Rider, one of the PSACs, or a small state college they are likely have a longer leash. I would argue that Ferrari has been on a trajectory up and to the right. At OSU there were allegations of burglary (expunged), sexual battery (dropped), and unsafe lane change (guilty) which caused a major accident. The issues that we've heard come out of Iowa City by comparison have been minor and not criminal. Heck if he slapped a teammate at a smaller school and flipped off the crowd at a mid or lower D1 program it would get less than half the attention. On FRL today they said he visited Northern Colorado and Rider. Northern Colorado had that guy ripping overhooks on people for multiple years and Nickerson is still there. With Allirez staying they could be a top 10 team with these two in the lineup.
  2. I didn't say I didn't care not. He might be the #1 overall recruit, so I think his ultimate choice is significant news. I don't care for the long drawn out process. The 7 or 14 schools he's eliminated are not news. It's a total snooze. Stringing everyone along to just to eliminate schools in the most predictable way ever is just bad entertainment and the more people invested will just lead to more people disappointed. If he's going to this nonsense at least spice it up somehow. If he's going ultimately pick the most predicable school then drop some other big name early on and as often as possible. Next week kick out Ohio State or Iowa or both. That would at least be news. Bassett eliminates Iowa. Big news. More to discuss. Bassett eliminates Bloomberg - not so much.
  3. In googling this I found a similar discussion on Facebook where the names Kelber, Cross, Randy Lewis, and Chris Hoffman (freestyle in HS - I've never heard of him) were mentioned. I tried to find all there college losses, but I'm still missing a few. Below is what I have Terry Brands High School: 110-10 (2 State Titles, lost in finals as a senior) College: 137-7 1987-1988: Redshirted unsure of losses this year probably wrestled in at least the Drake Open 1988-1989 26-4 (Larry Jones & Jack Griffin Midlands, Jack Griffin one other time - Possibly at the Northern Open where he finished 3rd) 1989-1990 33-2 (Gary McCall Wisconsin Open?, Kendall Cross dual?, Prescott double DQ Virginia Duals?) 1990-1991 43-1 (Kelber NCAAs, Chertow Midlands - Chertow postgrad) 1991-1992 35-0 Tom Brands High School: 109-12 (1 state title lost to Kelber) College: 158-7-2 1987-1988: Redshirted. Unsure of record. 1988-1989 32-4-2 (Kendall Cross NCAAs, Jim Martin NCAAs and Midlands, 2nd at Northern Open) 1989-1990 40-2 (Dave Zuniga Big Tens, Alan Fried) 1990-1991 45-0 1991-1992 41-1 (Fried Midlands) So I think I am missing one loss each from their freshman year. Tom's loss at the Northern Open. Possibly Terry's loss at the Northern Open too - unless that was his second loss to Griffin. No idea on their losses in their redshirt year.
  4. This whole thing will only be worthwhile if there is some plot twist at the end where he picks a school very few would have predicted. If he picks what everyone expects then what is the point?
  5. That is the most detailed seating chart that I have found as well. It's what's in the Paris app. My ticket specifies an entrance (number), stand (letter), block (letter and number - letter is the same as stand, but number different than the entrance number), Row (number), and seat (number). I don't know where it is on that chart. My stand is C so maybe somewhere in the light blue?
  6. Probably somewhere. An individual national champ would mean a lot to a lot of programs. Probably not any offering Ferrari a bag of cash. He'd really have to change his attitude, be contrite, and acknowledge his roll in his current situation. Coleman Scott's contract at UNC had a bonus of $20k if a wrestler won a national title. I'm sure some current coaches have a similar bonus. At $20k with a 1 in 4 chance that's an EV of $5k. If Ferrari actually has 3 season left that number could go up. For a coach with such a bonus this could mean up to $60k in bonuses if AJ runs the table. On the other hand Scott's contract with that bonus also had a bonus for team GPA. That bonus was smaller ($5k) but could be harder to get with Fast Twitch on the roster.
  7. The talk about US wrestlers potentially getting stuck in Russia reminded me of Sam Hazewinkel's retelling of the time Michael Lightner nearly got stuck in Dagestan. The Russian mob fast tracked him out of the country. https://www.flowrestling.org/video/6745216-hazewinkels-crazy-michael-lightner-story
  8. It is a risk. If the US isn't invited maybe he could apply to participate as a neutral athlete represent AIN or something? Though I don't think any nations weren't invited the last time. It could be a compelling competition at least in terms of wrestling. None of the men's freestyle gold medalist from the 2021 Olympics will be in Paris. It's possible 3 (Uguev, Sidakov, and Sadulaev) will be at this.
  9. I think the timing is better than in 1984. In 1984 they had some events before the Olympic Games and others after. That schedule doesn't seem likely to draw many nations participating in the Olympics, but the 1984 Friendship games were largely supported by teams that were boycotting the 1984 Olympics. This time around, I suspect they think it's more important to try and get teams to do both rather than boycott the Olympics in favor of the Friendship Games.
  10. Kelber and Cross might be a complete list. Who were their college losses? Tom was 159-7-2. He lost at Midlands his senior year to Alan Fried. His junior year he was undefeated. His sophomore year he lost to Dave Zuniga at Big Tens and to Alan Fried I think at an open or maybe an early season dual. His freshman year he was 32-4-2. He lost to Kendall Cross and Jim Martin at NCAAs and also lost to Martin in the finals of Midlands. I'm not sure about the 4th loss. Terry's record is 137-7. He was undefeated as a senior. His junior year his only loss was to Kelber in the NCAA final. His sophomore year he was 33-2. One loss was in an early season open to Gary McCall and the other one may have been that double DQ with Jeff Prescott. His freshman year he lost 4 matches. Two of those were at the Midlands to Larry Jones and Jack Griffith. Not sure about the other two. Maybe Steve Martin at some open?
  11. Russia previously announced their intent to revive the World Friendship Games this year. It is scheduled to be held September 15-29 and wrestling is on the program among other sports. Russian officials states that they expect at least 70 countries to partake. Have any countries announced they are sending a team? Do you think any American wrestlers will compete? Flo has been pushing the idea of Jordan Burroughs trying to make the 2024 World Team at 79kg and the possibility of him meeting Sidakov there. I'm not sure how likely that is to happen, but I also recently saw on social media that Sidakov is planning to enter into MMA. I'd think Dake or Burroughs going to the Friendship Games for another crack at Sidakov at 74kg before he goes into MMA would be a pretty compelling story. Similarly Spender Lee seeking out Uguev or Snyder taking on Sadulaev there would be pretty badass, in my opinion. Almost like something out of a Rocky Movie. For those that don't know the history of the Friendship Games, they were last held in 1984 when Russia and much of the Eastern Bloc boycotted the 1984 Olympics in LA. Athletes from 49 countries participated including nearly all the top athletes in the Eastern Bloc. The only American to make the trip was sprinter Alice Brown who won a Silver medal in 100m LA. She was unable to duplicate her success in Moscow and did not medal at the Friendship Games.
  12. Yes the median is the middle value. If there are an odd number of values this is the one in the middle. If there is an even number of values then it is the mean of the two middle values. Koll coached for 14 years which is an even number. The middle values are 19.25 and 23 points. Up until sometime in the 1990s it was possible to earn 1/4 of a point at NCAAs. A fall was 1 bonus, a TF was 0.75, and a major was 0.5 at some point. The average of these two is 21.125 or displayed to 0.1 precision 21.1. I kind of disagree on the merits of using the mean for NCAA placement, which was the only stat where I omitted it. Often, and especially for lower point totals, a difference of a few points can mean several places. Coaches don't coach that many years so a single off year can move the placement mean more significantly than the points. For Sunderland his mean placement was 14.6 and for Koll it was 13.6. Over 2 points is added to Sunderland's average by a single year, 2002, when they finished 35th. I omitted median from both AA and individual national champs. In the case of champs it was useless - they are both 0. For AAs it didn't seem that useful either. For Koll it's 1.5 and for Sunderland it is 2. I think the mean is more useful here too. I was consistent here. I also didn't count Sunderland's AA placements in his totals either.
  13. Sunderland's record was worse than Lorenzo, Fritz, and Sanderson but it was somewhat comparable to Koll at least at NCAAs. Koll had a much better dual record. Sunderland produced the same number of national champs in 3 fewer seasons than Koll. Sunderland also had 27 AAs in 11 seasons vs 20 in 14 for Koll. in Koll's era there were only 6AAs/weight vs 8AA/weight in Sunderland's. Still as a percent of available AA placements Sunderland's total was higher. Another consideration in this comparison is that not all wrestlers received a consolation berth when Koll coached which would depress his totals. Comparing their team placements which controls these rule differences it's still close. Koll's teams had a medial NCAA placement of 12.5. Sunderland is slightly better at 12. The top performances also slightly favor Sunderland. PSU's 3rd place finish in 2008 was better than any under Koll and Sunderland also produced 4 AAs 3 separate times and PSU never had more than 3 AAs in a season under Koll. Clarion, ESU, Lehigh, Lock Haven, Pitt, and Temple finished ahead of PSU at NCAAs during Koll's tenure. Lehigh, Penn, Edinboro, and Lock Haven, finished ahead of PSU at NCAAs and Pitt tied with PSU one year under Sunderland.
  14. Sunderland coached PSU for 11 years and had an overall record of 115-90-2. This is the worst record of any PSU coach except for Paul Campbell who coached for 4 years during WWII. Sunderland's best dual season was 2005-2006 when PSU was 13-4 and his worst was 2001-2002 when they were 6-12. Sunderland's best Big Ten tournament finish was 3rd, which he accomplished twice, and his average finish was 5.2. His worst finish was 10th in 2001. He coached 7 individual Big Ten champs. His best NCAA finish was 3rd in 2008, though his highest point total was 78.5 in his first season 1999 when PSU was 4th. Their average placement during his tenure was 14.6. They were in the top 5 2x, top 10 4x, top 25 10x. The only season they finished outside the top 25 was in 2002 (35th). Sunderland coached 27 AAs or about 2.45 per year. His best was 4AAs in 1999, 2003, and 2008. His worst was 0 in 2001. He coached 3 individual national champs (Pritzlaff 1999, Hunter 2001, and Davis 2008). PSU's performance under Sunderland was below their historical averages. His immediate predecessor, John Fritz, was the only PSU coach in the Big Ten era other than Sunderland and Sanderson. Fritz's record was 87-33-2 over 6 seasons with his best season being 22-0-1 in 1993 which was PSU's first season in the Big Ten. His worst was 5-12 in 1995. Under Fritz PSU was 2nd in the Big Ten 3x (1993, 1996, and 1998). His average finish was 3.17 and his worst was 6th in 1995. He coached 12 individual Big Ten champions which is 2/year on average. His team's best performance was 3 in both 1993 and 1994. The closest he came too a Big Ten tournament title was in 1993 when PSU scored 123.5 team points only 4.5 behind Iowa. At NCAAs Fritz's teams finished in the top 10 all 6 seasons and the top 5 all but one. Their best finish was 2nd in 1993. Their worst was 10th in 1995. Their average finish was 3.83. Fritz coached 21 AAs or 3.5/season. He had 5 AAs in both 1993 and 1998. The fewest AAs PSU had under Fritz was 1 in 1997. Three wrestlers won individual NCAA titles under Fritz - McCoy 2x, Hughes, and Abe.
  15. I think it is less cool. It's a long drawn out version of LeBron's "The Decision" crossed with Amazon's HQ2 bid process.
  16. Should the president impact culture? Is that really the mark of a good leader? If we made a list of heads of state and former heads of states over history that had the greatest impact on their country's/world culture it would be at least equal parts infamous.
  17. Another approach is to introduce something to perturb the equilibrium. Assume a match starts tied and a TD attempt resulting in an equal chance of either you or your opponent scoring. This might result in wrestlers that do not want to initiate TD attempts. One way to change things is to put one wrestler behind on the scoreboard. Now the wrestler in the lead will have less incentive to initiate a TD attempt as there is a 50% chance he will be losing, but on the other hand the losing wrestler will have a 50% chance of reversing his fortunes with a TD attempt. This is essentially what is done in international freestyle. If no one scores, then by rule one point is given to a wrestler.
  18. NIL was never illegal it was just an NCAA rules violation. I assumed that the limit on backpay for athletes in the original settlement being discussed (2017-2020) was because of some statute of limitations. If that's there case the NC State case could have some problems, but might be able to get some cut from the NCAA using the footage in more recently produced content.
  19. The rise in tech falls could also possibly explain a drop in TDs and scoring actions per match. Since the point value of the TD increased the TF now requires potentially fewer scoring actions. The matches ending in TF could result in lopsided matches being cut short after fewer scoring actions. I don't know if this explains the decrease, but I think a first step in investigating it could be to normalize by wrestling time instead of number of matches. So a match that ending in TF 1:30 into the second period the number of scoring actions would be divided by 4.5, the number of minutes wrested in the match. Alternatively one could look at the per match metric and exclude matches that end early (TF and Fall matches that went less than 7:00).
  20. No, I'm not. I was missing at least 2 - Kolat and Milkovich. Hard to argue against any of these 57. The four retired the longest that are not distinguished members are Scarpello, Kilgore, Burley, and Goldman. Gable is both a Glen Brand Inductee and a Distinguished Member.
  21. I count 55 of these including O'Toole and Starocci who are still active.
  22. I'm inclined to think the days of them not being employees are numbered. When they start writing checks to the players I think they are employees. I could see a path to equal pay prevailing. US Soccer settled an equal pay lawsuit with the Women's national team a couple years ago essentially agreeing to split the World Cup revenue of the men's team with them essentially giving them the same win bonus potential as the men. The women had failed in the courts though they were appealing and I think the settlement came not because its what would ultimately have been the result in court, but because of PR and to avoid the extended litigation. The men getting the short end of the stick, in that the revenue they earn is going to the women is to some extent moot currently given the relative performances of the two teams on the world stage and the relatively small amount of money we're talking about compared to their club contracts. If the men were to somehow go deep into into or win a World Cup only to see their substantial win bonus split with the woman, there might be another lawsuit from the other side. Then again the men are paid quite well from their clubs as it is so it might not be worth the fight. This could end up the situation in NCAA where unregulated NIL funds make up the difference between pay from the school and a revenue player's true economic value. I think that's true. As far as wrestling schools the service academies I don't see impacted by this. Lower division (D2 and D3) and schools that are wrestling up (F&M and the PSAC schools) probably are unlikely to be paying players any significant amount of money. The power 5 schools can probably afford to do this as the limit is set to only about 20% of their average revenue anyway and doesn't include revenue from donations. I would guess the largest area for concern from a wrestling perspective would be FBS schools that are not in a power 5 conference with wrestling teams. There aren't a ton of these (App State, Ohio, UB, Kent State, NIU. Central Michigan, ect.), but if competing in FBS is a priority for them they might drop some other sports to redirect funds.
  23. There will be a lawsuit regardless. There is a fairly widely held belief that the opportunities must balance or at least be proportional to the makeup of the student body to pass title IX muster and that the payments to athletes could be proportional to revenue. I'd be surprised if any power 5 school pays the women's athletic staff as much as the men's. Schools are free to pay based on ability, experience, knowledge, and economic value for these positions why would it require the opposite for players? It seems likely that at least some schools will take this interpretation and run with it. This in turn makes it more likely for others to follow suit since that would put them at a disadvantage recruiting athletes to revenue sports. On the other hand making a flat payment to all athletes regardless of sport/revenue probably gets another antitrust lawsuit. It would seem to deny athletes in revenue sports from making their true worth in the market. Another lawsuit is inevitable regarding this, so I'd imagine administrators will likely choose to take the path that doesn't put them at a competitive disadvantage in the sports that are most important to their institution.
  24. I thought he won U20 not U23.
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