Wrestleknownothing

Amen, brother.

The heart wants what the heart wants.

Pinfall has majesty. Exclamation points have no magic to move men's souls.

It was hard to watch. Up 2-0 and lose 2-5. Oof.

Last year @BerniePragle and I spent time inputting the results for 2010 - 2022 by year, weight, seed, and school. Unfortunately I did not include bonus points. Doing bonus points by seed is a LOT more work than just doing it the way we did. What we came up with was an expected advancement and placement points per seed rather than a score that reflects what they would get if they wrestled exactly to their seed. This recognizes the fact that seeds and results can be very different things. For example, from 2010 - 2022 a #1 seed's max points would be 20 plus bonus, but the actual average is 16.81 points. This reflects that the average finish for a #1 seed is between second and third. It looks like this: Now, if you are willing to do the same with bonus points by year, weight, seed, and school and share it would be greatly appreciated.

I worded this very poorly. A better way to say it is: if you rescored the 1997 tournament using today's scoring, Iowa would have 175.5 rather than 170.

5th place is worth 2 more points today than in 97, 6th place is worth 3 more points, giving PSU 5 more placement points given your assumptions. The only other difference is that Iowa had a single match termination which was worth 1 point. Today it would be worth 1.5 points.

No, I just took a look at the brackets on Wrestlingstats.

PSU scores 5 more placement points plus Van Ness' 1.5 to 2. The issue PSU would still have is they are not a big bonus point team. Iowa scored 34 bonus points in 97. PSU will get about half of that.

No such thing anymore.

146.5 in 2017

I think it may be the opposite. In 1997 you only got 1.5 points for a TF if you scored back points. If you led by 15 without back points, it was a match termination and only worth 1 team point. Also third through eighth were worth less then (9, 7, 5, 3, 2, 1) than they are now (10, 9, 7, 6, 4, 3). But @gimpeltf would be best to weigh in on this.

I am a massive PSU fan and I would take the under on every one of those numbers.

I am jealous.

Just vacations and work trips. But I am a big Liverpool fan. So if you hear me saying things like he gave him a Scouse kiss, it's twitchy bum time, he ate all the pies, he hit a purple patch, or they are at sixes and sevens, you will know where it came from.

If they wrestle out of their minds they will be lucky to get within 30 points of the record, which won't even put them in the top 10. To say SI is a shadow of its old self is among the understatements of the year.

Here is my pure guesswork for PSU and Iowa. PSU had 15.5 bonus points last year. I think they lose a net of 3.5 at 141 (swapping Beau Bartlett for Nick Lee) and gain 2.5 among 149, 157 and 165, with Levi Haines the most likely to score bonus. Everything else is a push. That gives them 14.5 bonus points. Iowa had 9 bonus points last year. I think they gain 5.5 at 125, loses 3.5 (swapping Brody Teske for Austin DeSanto) at 133, gains 3.5 at 141, and loses 2 at 174 (swapping Nelson Brands for Michael Kemerer). Everything else is a push. That gives them 12.5 bonus points.

I did this once. I wanted to see if more bonus points are scored on the championship side of the bracket or the consolation side. It breaks down to about 52% / 48%, so there is probably a modest correlation to seed. This is for 2010 - 2022, so a different time period than above.

To quote the better half, "You have soooo many projects." For the less careful reader, that is not meant as a compliment.

Yes, but it is a lot more work.

fixed it for you

125 - Gary Steen 133 - RBY 141 - Woods 149 - Diakomihalis 157 - O'Connor 165 - Carr 174 - Starocci 184 - Brooks 197 - Dean 285 - Kerkvliet Edit: I just noticed I mis-spelled Spencer Lee

I only have bonus point data for 2013 thru 2022. During those 9 tournaments the first place team typically also leads in bonus points (8 out of 9 times). Average bonus points by place looks like this: Zooming in on the top 4 teams: The exception year was 2018 when a third place Iowa outscored everyone else when it came to bonus points: So the question is what kind of tournament do you expect? If it is the average tournament then PSU should make the gap bigger when factoring in bonus points. However, PSU has been below average of late, only averaging 16.25 bonus points the last two tourneys. With PSU losing Nick Lee, but potentially gaining bonus points at 157 is that a push? With Iowa seeing the return of an all-time tournament bonus point machine and Woods' upgraded offense, is that a net gain? With Lee back I could see a path for Iowa to finish second, but have the most bonus points.

For the final edition of this post, prior to the final edition of this post, I thought I would take a look at the full season. Using Intermat's rankings from today to determine the current top 10 teams I traced their expected points back through time to the pre-season rankings. The gap at the top has grown significantly as the PSU freshmen first entered the rankings and then began to climb the rankings, growing from an expected lead over Iowa of 16.8 points to the current gap of 30.9 points. Meanwhile, the expected gap between #2 and #3 has shrunk from 14.8 to 10.2 While #1 and #2 have remained fairly constant, #3 and #4 have not. Ohio State, Cornell, Michigan, and Iowa State have each had dalliances with the podium positions, but with Nebraska's meteoric rise and Missouri's relative stability these two now occupy the expected podium positions. But that occupancy is not a foregone conclusion. The race for the podium has tightened up significantly. At the beginning of the season there was a 98% difference between #4 (52.1 expected points) and #10 (26.3 expected points). That is down to a 25% difference (48.8 vs 39.1). Per usual, I am only looking at placement and advancement points based on the historical results from 2010 - 2022.

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