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Everything posted by Wrestleknownothing
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Not necessarily if they considered the source.
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The 3-Point Takedown: Friend or Foe?
Wrestleknownothing replied to Wrestleknownothing's topic in College Wrestling
I am starting to come around to the counter-intuitive. If you want to increase risk taking, lower the score for a takedown to 1.5. If you only get 1.5 and a reversal is worth 1, you can no longer run and hide after a single takedown. A single stalling point loses the match. If you want to be safe you need more takedowns to build your margin. I am beginning to believe they went the wrong direction if they want to promote scoring and risk-taking. -
The 3-Point Takedown: Friend or Foe?
Wrestleknownothing replied to Wrestleknownothing's topic in College Wrestling
That does bring things much closer. In 2023 and 2024 the 3-2 match was the most popular with 6.9% of full time matches (6.8% of all matches). While 2024 and 2025 saw the 4-2 score top the list with 7.9% of full time matches (7.1% of all matches). -
The 3-Point Takedown: Friend or Foe?
Wrestleknownothing replied to Wrestleknownothing's topic in College Wrestling
I excluded TF because I wanted to focus on matches that went the distance. But even if you include TF the direction does not change. The impact is more muted, but still large. Including TF, one take down matches then were 5.1% and now are 7.1% (+39%). There is no impact on zero takedown matches. They still rank 9th now vs. 27th then. I will come up with a way to illustrate the noise. -
He recently, and hilariously, posted on HVI "I owned what I said, and still do." Minnow gonna minnow.
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Same thing with a jetski. The gas gets you in trouble, the gas gets you out of trouble. Depends on how and when you use it.
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Thanks to the data provided by @cowcards we can now look at the three point takedown through a new lens. Lights, Camera, ACTION At the time the three pointer was approved the rationale was twofold: The extra point rewards offensive actions and risk-taking. It creates a more appropriate point differential between takedowns and escapes. https://www.ncaa.org/news/2023/6/8/media-center-3-point-takedown-approved-in-wrestling.aspx Let's examine the first belief. Has there been more offensive action and risk taking? Well, with only two years worth of data it might be too soon to tell, but so far it looks like the answer is a resounding no. Not only has there not been more, there actually appears to be less. Survey Says.... From 1993 to 2023, when all takedowns were worth 2 points and criteria was removed as a tiebreaker, for non-overtime matches ending in decision, or major decision (matches that go the full time and are not tech falls), the most common score was 3-2 (5.3%). With the advent of the three point takedown in the last two years, the most common score for these matches was 4-2 (7.9%). One takedown matches have increased in frequency (+49%) even after they were already the most common outcome. And sadly, during the last two tournaments the ninth most common score for non-TF, full-time matches was 2-0. That's right. A match with zero takedowns has entered the top 10 for full-time score since the rule change. For reference, 2-0 used to be the 27th most common score. So? One way to interpret this is that once the first takedown is secured wrestlers get into the mindset of keeping what they have rather than taking risk to try to add to it. The opposite of the stated goal. A less direct measure is to look at the percentage of matches that go to OT. 1993 - 2023: 8% 2024 - 2025: 10%. Not a huge leap given the size of the data for the 3-point era, but suggestive nonetheless. Taken together you would be hard pressed to say they 3-point takedown has succeeded in rewarding risk-taking.
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Why go to Flo for 45 minutes of conjecture when you can get days of it here?
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Is Melvin Miller a Iowa lock?
Wrestleknownothing replied to Jimmy Cinnabon's topic in College Wrestling
Not familiar with that one -
Is Melvin Miller a Iowa lock?
Wrestleknownothing replied to Jimmy Cinnabon's topic in College Wrestling
Which lake are you on? -
D1 Championship Matches Database
Wrestleknownothing replied to cowcards's topic in College Wrestling
Maybe this will trigger some pythons. In 94 tournaments, Over 98 years, There have been 12,920 wrestlers, Representing 328 schools Schools that have had at least 100 entrants include: -
If you do not have the private key or wallet access.
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Per this graph, prior to the JCPOA Iran had ~1,000 centrifuges. Per this graph, after the deal they had zero. Per this graph, after Trump pulled the US out of the deal Iran went into overdrive building centrifuges, getting to ~15k by May of 202?. The graph does not show the opposite of what he so poorly said, Trump is responsible for Iran's enrichment activities. It was a really dumb post by that guy.
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The words do not match the graph
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D1 Championship Matches Database
Wrestleknownothing replied to cowcards's topic in College Wrestling
The first question I asked of your data is who had the most success in the consolation bracket? Indiana's Brandon Becker was a three time All-American between 2005 and 2008, and he tore it up on the backside. Below are the top 10 all-time. JD Bergman is an interesting one, too. He is the only man to win 13 consolation matches in two tournaments combined. -
60% of the points were scored by redshirts and 40% by true. But that is heavily skewed by the #1 ranked guys. They tend to wrestle as true freshman and they score bunches. It is the only ranks where the majority wrestled as true freshman and they outscored their compatriots who sat a year by 145.5 to 64. Excluding #1, redshirts had 65% of the points.
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D1 Championship Matches Database
Wrestleknownothing replied to cowcards's topic in College Wrestling
Monster effort. Thank you for doing this. -
In response to my returning points thread, someone on 34andcounting asked what kind of points could a freshman be expected to score at the NCAA Tournament. Using Willie's Big Board data I decided to take a look. One huge caveat is that the numbers below are fitted lines through some VERY noisy data. The first thing I looked at was the odds of qualifying for the tournament based on BB rank. There are 12 years worth of graduating classes in the data (2013 - 2023) that have completed true freshman and redshirt freshman years. For these calcs I am including true freshmen and redshirt freshmen for each high school graduating year. For example, for 2022 grads I include 2023 true freshmen plus 2024 redshirt freshmen. 80% of Success is Showing Up 100% of #1 Big Boarders qualified for the tournament as either a true freshman or a redshirt freshman. These are your only sure things. By the time you get to the #10 BB it is a 50/50 proposition whether they even qualify for the tournament, never mind score once they get there. No Participation Points But you can't just show up. Once a freshman makes the tournament they still need to score. Combining scoring with probability of making the tournament steepens the curve somewhat. At almost 18 points per, #1 BB can be expected to score in the high teens in their freshmen year (true or redshirt). But that is it. No other rank cracks double digits. And by the time you get to the #10 ranked freshman recruit you are looking at about 4 points. Bring in da' Noise, Bring in da' Funk That really should be Mitchell Mesenbrink's walk out music. Remember what I said about the noise in the data? Mesenbrink is the physical embodiment of that noise (and he was trained by the Master of Funk). As the #59 ranked wrestler in his class, the line above suggests he is good for about a half a point in his freshman year. Well, at 19.5 points he is what we would call an outlier. And the reason you should take this with a grain of salt.
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Girl, you look so good I wanna put you on a plate and sop you up with a biscuit.
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Is PJ Duke redshirting next year? Why?
Wrestleknownothing replied to Cowboy08's topic in College Wrestling
Why so angry, kid? -
Is PJ Duke redshirting next year? Why?
Wrestleknownothing replied to Cowboy08's topic in College Wrestling
I laughed out loud when I read that sentence. Thank ypu for adding levity to the conversation. -
Please, please, please, I beg you Trump supporters to support your president by signing up for this guaranteed to not be a sham service. For $499 you can get a phone made in the USA (wink, wink), and for $47.45 per month you can get phone service from providers that charge much more, for some odd reason, AND telemedicine, AND free perscriptions. Ignore that any single one of these services cost more. You will definitely get what you pay for. And if you do not get what you are promised, you can be certain that federal regulators will be all over this to make the company toe the line.
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Penn State/NLWC = not that unbeatable?
Wrestleknownothing replied to Jimmy Cinnabon's topic in College Wrestling
Willie's Big Board had Welsh #3 -
Penn State/NLWC = not that unbeatable?
Wrestleknownothing replied to Jimmy Cinnabon's topic in College Wrestling
Mesenbrink was #59, Haines was #7, Barr was #4.