Wrestleknownothing

To help understand why a #1 seed is not credited with the maximum advancement and placement points see the below table. The row labels are the seeds and the column labels are the finishes. The percentages sum horizontally, not vertically. So, only 52.5% of #1 seeds actually finished as champs. Another 20.8% were runners up. And 1.6% failed to even AA.

The two highest scoring wrestlers in the 2022 tournament scored 46 points combined. It is a little aggressive to assume that Peyton Robb and Mike Labriola will combine for 45 points. That would be their high end, not their "should be". But that also includes bonus points. My expected points total is only advancement and placement points (same as the ranking services). That said here is the Nebraska breakdown:

With apologies to @jajensen09 here are the updated NCAA tournament projections based on individual rankings per ranking service: Sadly Nebraska is still outside the top 4 in all three services based on expected advancement and placement points (reminder: expected points are based on actual points scored by seed from 2010 - 2022 and rankings are treated as seed projections). The difference between my methodology and the ranking services' methodology is that the ranking services all over value a top 8 seed and undervalue seeds 9 through 33. Their methodology assumes the only wrestles who will score are those that are in the top 8, which is just not realistic (but it is easy). Now for the good news for Nebraska. They are up and coming. Depending on who you ask they are the second or third most improved team since the pre-season.

That is not the way forward.

As I read through those rules it struck me as amusing that on two occassions in the 1800s when they could not reach a majority they passed a resolution to settle for a plurality (which was then ratified by a majority). If they did that on any of the first three votes yesterday a Republican Congress would have chosen a Democratic Speaker.

I am curious how you think that works.

Rounding error.

In @jajensen09's defense, Flo already updated their rankings post holiday tournaments and Intermat has not yet.

Good news for @bnwtwg's conscience.

Neither need to happen for PSU to run away with the title. But I would say Greg Kerkvliet is a clear favorite right now over Cohlton Schultz and Max Dean has at least a 25% chance of making the finals. And historically things only get more favorable for PSU come March.

Tougher than what? In 2021 Roman Bravo-Young and Nick Lee were the 2 seed and Carter Starocci was the 3 seed, meaning they had the "tough" semi. That turned out alright. Of their four champs that year only Aaron Brooks was the 1 seed. In 2022 the script was flipped. This time only Brooks wasn't the 1 seed. Again, it turned out alright.

As a reminder of how highly seeded wrestlers have performed by school from 2010 - 2022 (lets call it the Cael Sanderson era). Only schools that averaged 1 or more top 4 seeds per year are included. For wrestlers eliminated prior to the AA bouts I give them credit for the top end of the range that they were eliminated. For example, all four blood round losers are credited with ninth. I also have mid-point and bottom of range data, but it doesn't change anything. The bottom graph shows the total number of wrestlers with top 4 seeds.

The most likely explanation is your first one. They are published weekly so between conference finals and NCAA finals there are several matches, not just one. I will dig deeper.

That doesn't bother me. As I like to say to my team, all of my predictions are wrong, but they are right on average. What bothers me is that when RBY beat Fix BOTH of their Elos went up. That is not how Elos work. Points migrate to the winner from the loser and the magnitude is dependent on the difference between their rankings prior to the competition.

There are sooooo many complaints about Wrestlestat's Elo (and they are not necessarily unfounded), but can we show some Wrestlesat love? Holy crap, they even have detailed records for junior college wrestlers. Great job, Wrestlestat. Now about those Elos...

Yes. Based on Intermat ratings from 12/22: ~30 fewer Based on Flo ratings from 12/20: ~26 fewer Based on Wrestlestat from 12/27: ~26 fewer But I also have second place scoring fewer than last year. Depending on the rankings service I have them 12 - 16 points fewer. Another thing to keep in mind is that I am assuming PSU and everyone else will wrestle to global historical averages. It has been pointed out that PSU has been a big outlier under Cael Sanderson and staff.

I hear ya. My numbers assume they will take some losses. Across the 4 top ranked wrestlers I have them falling roughly 13 points shy of max. So you can look at that as one of four coming in sixth or seventh. Or two coming in third.

Most things are over my head and not understood.

Meh. I have PSU with a 28.9 point lead per Intermat, 37.5 per Flo and Wrestlestat. That does not assume teams wrestle to seed. It assumes teams wrestle to the historical average for the seed. However, PSU typically outperforms the field on that metric, so it is possible that their expected points lead is even larger. When Intermat updates their individual rankings I will update all those numbers.

This is great news. The Iran wrestling news thread on Indianamat is up to 37 pages in 81 days (0.46 pages per day) while this thread is at 17 pages in just 32 days (0.53 per day). With the addition of Covid we can definitely catch them. Keep up the good work.

That was an investment in my daughter. Easy money.

I remember watching it live with my wife and Villanova grad daughter. We were freaked out. The announcers were initially speculating it came out. Wild stuff. One Villanova story. My dad also graduated from Villanova. My wife and I ran into Jay Wright and his wife at breakfast once. We got talking and his wife asked me if I went to Villanova. I said, "no, but my dad, my daughter, and my money did." Jay laughed at my joke. My daughter was so jealous.

It wasn't poke out. The eyelid just got tucked under.

I only take investing advice from Ben Askren.

Wait, you took the time to correct the spelling of mullet, but not Nijenhuis?