Jimmy Cinnabon Posted February 24 Posted February 24 (edited) Head to head comparison of Ok State and Penn State and realistic and best case scenarios for each weight: 125 Lilledahl: best case 1st, realistic range 1-4 Spratley: best case 1st, realistic range 3-8 Advantage PSU 133 Blaze: best case 1st, realistic range 1-5 Jax: best case 1st, realistic range 1-3 Wash 141 Davis: best case 5th, realistic range 5-DNP Vega: best case 1st, realistic range 2-8 Big advantage OK St 149 SVN: best case 1st, realistic range 1-3 Swiderski: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R16 Big advantage PSU 157 Duke: best case 1st, realistic range 2-8 Robideau: best case 1st, realistic range 3-8 Wash 165 Mesenbrink: best case 1st, realistic range 1-2 Lockett: best case 2nd, realist range 2-8 Advantage PSU 174 Haines: best case 1st, realistic range 1-2 Facundo: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Big advantage PSU 184 Welsh: best case 1st, realistic range 1-5 Ryder: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Advantage PSU 197 Barr: best case 1st, realistic range 1-2 Merrill: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Big advantage PSU HWT Mirasola: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Doucet: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Wash So in total I have 3 weights where PSU has a big advantage over Ok St in terms of NCAA scoring potential (149, 174 and 197), 3 weights where PSU has an advantage (125, 165 and 184) and 1 weight where Ok State has a big advantage (141). The remaining 3 weights (133, 157 and HWT) are a wash in my book. So I think Ok St doesn't have much of a chance (less than 25%) of outscoring PSU this year at NCAAs if things go mostly chalk. Edited February 24 by Jimmy Cinnabon
Paul158 Posted February 24 Posted February 24 5 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: Head to head comparison of Ok State and Penn State and realistic and best case scenarios for each weight: 125 Lilledahl: best case 1st, realistic range 1-4 Spratley: best case 1st, realistic range 3-8 Advantage PSU 133 Blaze: best case 1st, realistic range 1-5 Jax: best case 1st, realistic range 1-3 Wash 141 Davis: best case 5th, realistic range 5-DNP Vega: best case 1st, realistic range 2-8 Big advantage OK St 149 SVN: best case 1st, realistic range 1-3 Swiderski: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R16 Big advantage PSU 157 Duke: best case 1st, realistic range 2-8 Robideau: best case 1st, realistic range 3-8 Wash 165 Mesenbrink: best case 1st, realistic range 1-2 Lockett: best case 2nd, realist range 2-8 Advantage PSU 174 Haines: best case 1st, realistic range 1-2 Facundo: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Big advantage PSU 184 Welsh: best case 1st, realistic range 1-5 Ryder: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Advantage PSU 197 Barr: best case 1st, realistic range 1-2 Merrill: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Big advantage PSU HWT Mirasola: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Doucet: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Wash So in total I have 3 weights where PSU has a big advantage over Ok St in terms of NCAA scoring potential (149, 174 and 197), 3 weights where PSU has an advantage (125, 165 and 184) and 1 weight where Ok State has a big advantage (141). The remaining 3 weights (133, 157 and HWT) are a wash in my book. So I think Ok St doesn't have much of a chance (less than 25%) of outscoring PSU this year at NCAAs if things go mostly chalk. I would say less than 2%.
Tyler Posted February 24 Posted February 24 Where PSU really separates is with the amount of bonus points they put up throughout the tournament.
Elevator Posted February 24 Posted February 24 JC's analysis is sound and an interesting point. It is not crazy that the Cowboys could make it a race - but prolly not. Perhaps of equal importance, a lot of their young guns are really fun to watch and should be contenders for many years.
Jimmy Cinnabon Posted February 24 Author Posted February 24 23 minutes ago, Tyler said: Where PSU really separates is with the amount of bonus points they put up throughout the tournament. That is typically the case but Ok State has a lot of bonus machines too (Jax, Vega and Robideau all get lots of bonus).
Gus Posted February 24 Posted February 24 If they can get an extra year of eligibility for Hamiti, Plott and Wyatt they have a chance.
MLB9 Posted February 24 Posted February 24 Great post Jimmy, very objective. I’ll take PSU by ~50. I think the race between the OSU’s for 2nd will be a good one. Future team races, especially two years from now, will be entertaining for sure. Okie’s gonna get some barring some program catastrophe
PNWfan Posted February 24 Posted February 24 2 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: Head to head comparison of Ok State and Penn State and realistic and best case scenarios for each weight: 125 Lilledahl: best case 1st, realistic range 1-4 Spratley: best case 1st, realistic range 3-8 Advantage PSU 133 Blaze: best case 1st, realistic range 1-5 Jax: best case 1st, realistic range 1-3 Wash 141 Davis: best case 5th, realistic range 5-DNP Vega: best case 1st, realistic range 2-8 Big advantage OK St 149 SVN: best case 1st, realistic range 1-3 Swiderski: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R16 Big advantage PSU 157 Duke: best case 1st, realistic range 2-8 Robideau: best case 1st, realistic range 3-8 Wash 165 Mesenbrink: best case 1st, realistic range 1-2 Lockett: best case 2nd, realist range 2-8 Advantage PSU 174 Haines: best case 1st, realistic range 1-2 Facundo: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Big advantage PSU 184 Welsh: best case 1st, realistic range 1-5 Ryder: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Advantage PSU 197 Barr: best case 1st, realistic range 1-2 Merrill: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Big advantage PSU HWT Mirasola: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Doucet: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Wash So in total I have 3 weights where PSU has a big advantage over Ok St in terms of NCAA scoring potential (149, 174 and 197), 3 weights where PSU has an advantage (125, 165 and 184) and 1 weight where Ok State has a big advantage (141). The remaining 3 weights (133, 157 and HWT) are a wash in my book. So I think Ok St doesn't have much of a chance (less than 25%) of outscoring PSU this year at NCAAs if things go mostly chalk. If Jimmy pastry things Ok St is anywhere near 25% chance to outscore PSU (as he seems to suggest in his final paragraph), he should be running to the casino to get that bet placed on Ok St. Guessing their actual odds will be less than 5% likely. Run, Jimmy, run! PNWfan
ionel Posted February 24 Posted February 24 11 minutes ago, Gus said: If they can get an extra year of eligibility for Hamiti, Plott and Wyatt they have a chance. Maybe they plug Hamiti in at 184 for B12. The kid only wrestled 4 years correct ... how is that even fair? .
WrestlingRash Posted February 24 Posted February 24 PSU will have 7-8 champs. Nobody is touching them. They are the best college team ever.
Tyler Posted February 24 Posted February 24 37 minutes ago, WrestlingRash said: PSU will have 7-8 champs. Nobody is touching them. They are the best college team ever. What’s more likely, PSU having 7 champs (125, 149, 157, 165, 174, 184, 197) or 3 champs (165, 174, 197)?
SplitTheG Posted February 24 Posted February 24 4 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: Head to head comparison of Ok State and Penn State and realistic and best case scenarios for each weight: 125 Lilledahl: best case 1st, realistic range 1-4 Spratley: best case 1st, realistic range 3-8 Advantage PSU 133 Blaze: best case 1st, realistic range 1-5 Jax: best case 1st, realistic range 1-3 Wash 141 Davis: best case 5th, realistic range 5-DNP Vega: best case 1st, realistic range 2-8 Big advantage OK St 149 SVN: best case 1st, realistic range 1-3 Swiderski: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R16 Big advantage PSU 157 Duke: best case 1st, realistic range 2-8 Robideau: best case 1st, realistic range 3-8 Wash 165 Mesenbrink: best case 1st, realistic range 1-2 Lockett: best case 2nd, realist range 2-8 Advantage PSU 174 Haines: best case 1st, realistic range 1-2 Facundo: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Big advantage PSU 184 Welsh: best case 1st, realistic range 1-5 Ryder: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Advantage PSU 197 Barr: best case 1st, realistic range 1-2 Merrill: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Big advantage PSU HWT Mirasola: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Doucet: best case 3rd, realistic range 3-R12 Wash So in total I have 3 weights where PSU has a big advantage over Ok St in terms of NCAA scoring potential (149, 174 and 197), 3 weights where PSU has an advantage (125, 165 and 184) and 1 weight where Ok State has a big advantage (141). The remaining 3 weights (133, 157 and HWT) are a wash in my book. So I think Ok St doesn't have much of a chance (less than 25%) of outscoring PSU this year at NCAAs if things go mostly chalk. I think OSU are at least 3 years out, after the current sophomores graduate Their lineups would look as follows: PSU 125 - Soto 133 - Blaze 141 - Desmond/Burnett 149 - Mangano/Burnett 157 - Jayden James 165 - PJ Duke 174 - Cunningham 184 - Henckel 197 - Connor Mirasola 285 - Cole Mirasola Connor Mirasola also available OSU: 125 - Ronnie Ramirez 133 - Jax 141 - Raney 149 - Vega 157 - Raney 165 - Robideau 174 - Lockett 184 - Ryder 197 - Merrill 285 - Ross Awesome matchup, here's what I'd have: 125 - OSU 133 - Tossup 141 - OSU 149 - OSU 157 - PSU 165 - PSU 174 - OSU 184 - OSU 197 - Tossup 285 - Tossup Obviously, this all can change with a transfer portal move. But this is the first year where I see advantage OK State.
jackwebster Posted February 24 Posted February 24 2 hours ago, Gus said: If they can get an extra year of eligibility for Hamiti, Plott and Wyatt they have a chance. Rimshot ftw
MLB9 Posted February 24 Posted February 24 Landon Sidun has to fit in there somewhere, if he holds 125 I think he’d be a favorite over any OSU currents/recruits. Doubt James and Cunningham will still be that light. Oklahoma State’s going to be really good
Nak21 Posted February 24 Posted February 24 I would say no. It would take a historic under performance by PSU coupled with a near perfect tourney from anOSU. I agree the more exciting race is for 2nd and which OSU takes that. PSU brings in a loaded team. Historically they peak at NCAAs. The winning % in the semis and finals is astounding. They tend to bonus at a very high rate, that almost makes it like they’re wrestling with 11 or 12 instead of 10 and those 1-2 extra bring like 3rd place or better points. PSU is very much in the mix to win, have finalists or likely a top 3 floor at 125, 133, 149, 157, 165, 174, 184, 197. 141 is likely not gonna do much but the recent surge at 285 makes more points there a possibility. I don’t see this PSU team losing this year, or next year (2026-2027) with what they bring back. 2027-2028 is the year, the Okie St super frosh are Jr’s, DT has had another 1-2 years of his recruits in the lineup and it’s an Olympic year so RS’s could be rampant.
Truzzcat Posted February 24 Posted February 24 56 minutes ago, SplitTheG said: I think OSU are at least 3 years out, after the current sophomores graduate Their lineups would look as follows: PSU 125 - Soto 133 - Blaze 141 - Desmond/Burnett 149 - Mangano/Burnett 157 - Jayden James 165 - PJ Duke 174 - Cunningham 184 - Henckel 197 - Connor Mirasola 285 - Cole Mirasola Connor Mirasola also available OSU: 125 - Ronnie Ramirez 133 - Jax 141 - Raney 149 - Vega 157 - Raney 165 - Robideau 174 - Lockett 184 - Ryder 197 - Merrill 285 - Ross Awesome matchup, here's what I'd have: 125 - OSU 133 - Tossup 141 - OSU 149 - OSU 157 - PSU 165 - PSU 174 - OSU 184 - OSU 197 - Tossup 285 - Tossup Obviously, this all can change with a transfer portal move. But this is the first year where I see advantage OK State. Definitely do not think Ronnie ever sees 125 but I am super high on Zinkin coming in and I would not be shocked if Michael white takes that 184 spot as soon as next year, he has gotten significantly better this year and has only wrestled for 4 years so I cannot imagine the strides he can make in that room. I am the personal property of VakAttack
Dogbone Posted February 24 Posted February 24 Whatever the odds are that the whole team gets food poisoning the night before NCAAs is the correct percentage on OSU chances of beating PSU, because that the only realistic scenario where it could happen.
jchapman Posted February 24 Posted February 24 6 minutes ago, Dogbone said: Whatever the odds are that the whole team gets food poisoning the night before NCAAs is the correct percentage on OSU chances of beating PSU, because that the only realistic scenario where it could happen. And then they would still have to beat tOSU Craig Henning got screwed in the 2007 NCAA Finals.
OMW Posted February 24 Posted February 24 1 hour ago, Truzzcat said: Definitely do not think Ronnie ever sees 125 Ramirez likely sees a different singlet/university before 125.
fitzi Posted February 24 Posted February 24 PSU is almost guaranteed the title this year and probably next year too….. 2 years from now is a different story and is the beginning of a Cowboy title window. That being said it wouldn’t shock me if PSU won 10 straight titles
PortaJohn Posted February 24 Posted February 24 7 minutes ago, fitzi said: PSU is almost guaranteed the title this year and probably next year too….. 2 years from now is a different story and is the beginning of a Cowboy title window. That being said it wouldn’t shock me if PSU won 10 straight titles We're all aware. This is a Cinnabon thread. Our resident troll. Welcome to the forum I Don't Agree With What I Posted
Simpleman424 Posted February 24 Posted February 24 Penn State will buy whoever they need to keep winning Championships…the gap will get closer but nothing will change until the money changes.
SocraTease Posted February 25 Posted February 25 A simpler and more reliable (if still problematic) way to do this is to look at Intermat's and FLO's rankings for each wrestler and the total points they are they are predicted to score. This, of course, also doesn't factor in bonus points, where Penn State rules the roost every year by far. (Aside: Normally, Intermat and FLO are fairly close in their team point totals; I'm not sure why this past week there are big differences for some of the teams. Tournament Rankings - Intermat RANK Team Conference Points Last 1 Penn State Big Ten 160 1 2 Ohio State Big Ten 105.5 2 3 Oklahoma State Big 12 81 3 4 Iowa State Big 12 78 4 5 Nebraska Big Ten 72.5 5 6 Iowa Big Ten 61 6 7 Cornell Ivy 53.5 7 8 NC State ACC 45.5 8 9 Illinois Big Ten 33.5 10 10 Virginia Tech ACC 32 11 Tournament Points - FLO Rank Team Points Previous Rank Previous Points 1 Penn State 160 1 160 2 Ohio State 89 2 89 3 OK State 88.5 3 88.5 4 Iowa State 80.5 4 81 5 Nebraska 79 5 80 6 Iowa 58 6 60 7 Cornell 54 7 57.5 8 NC State 50.5 8 49.5 9 Virginia Tech 37 9 36.5 10 Illinois 33.5 10 33.5
1032004 Posted February 25 Posted February 25 11 hours ago, Gus said: If they can get an extra year of eligibility for Hamiti, Plott and Wyatt they have a chance. This was actually asked on FRL if they could win with those guys on this year’s team. All 3 never redshirted.
Anthony Severino New York Military Academy, New York Class of 2027 Committed to Army West Point Projected Weight: 141, 149
Zach Rehak Thomas Jefferson, Pennsylvania Class of 2027 Committed to Seton Hill Projected Weight: 125
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