Penn State with 8-9 NCAA Champs & 0ver 200 points next year?

[SaltMerchant]

1- Luke L 2- Ono- 3- M Blaze 4- SVN 5-PJ Duke/Kasak 6- M Mesenbrink 7- L Hain, 8- Rocco W 9- Josh Barr 

[AZ_wrestling]

Nah. Four champs and nine AAs. 

[Rassling2]

20 minutes ago, SaltMerchant said:

1- Luke L 2- Ono- 3- M Blaze 4- SVN 5-PJ Duke/Kasak 6- M Mesenbrink 7- L Hain, 8- Rocco W 9- Josh Barr 

Any chance Marcus Blaze transfers to Oklahoma State because of Ono?

[SaltMerchant]

33 minutes ago, AZ_wrestling said:

Nah. Four champs and nine AAs. 

Ok, please provide solid contending alternatives to the 4-5?

[cangemi]

Too aggressive.  4 or 5 champs

[cangemi]

The best guys don't always win.upsets.injuries. things  happen.

Edited Sunday at 10:56 PM by cangemi

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

More likely Penn State has 1-3 champs next year.  But they should still comfortably win the team title for another year.

[ionel]

2 hours ago, SaltMerchant said:

1- Luke L 2- Ono- 3- M Blaze 4- SVN 5-PJ Duke/Kasak 6- M Mesenbrink 7- L Hain, 8- Rocco W 9- Josh Barr 

 

14 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

More likely Penn State has 1-3 champs next year.  But they should still comfortably win the team title for another year.

I'm confused.  Is this the SaltyCinnabon or JimmyMerchant? 

[Hammerlock3]

48 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

More likely Penn State has 1-3 champs next year.  But they should still comfortably win the team title for another year.

this guy is nervous. this is a very anti cinnabon post.

[1032004]

Welsh isn’t winning.  Could see the other 8 happening though 

[SaltMerchant]

3 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

More likely Penn State has 1-3 champs next year.  But they should still comfortably win the team title for another year.

Likely one...or 3 ..........if not these PSU wrestlers, Please enlighten us with your other serous contenders.....& I wait...

[MLB9]

Wouldn’t surprise me if Ono, Mesenbrink, and Haines are favorites against the field when the brackets roll out. Is there any other prospective “type” you all see in that tier right now? I was thinking maybe Mendez and McEnelly, but there are some tough dudes at 141 and 184. The next closest to a heavy favorite might be Josh Barr, if AJ goes 285. I’d set the o/u at 4.5

[Gene Mills Fan]

10 hours ago, Hammerlock3 said:

this guy is nervous. this is a very anti cinnabon post.

he always cuts them down so someone can blow his skirt up

[AgaveMaria]

Penn State underperformed this year. Different from past years.

Will it happen again? Maybe, and maybe not. I would not count on the Lions falling down again.

OSU with Taylor is looking good but we need a couple of NCAA's to see if they have that magic when the lights are on and it is all on the line. We have seen Penn State in these conditions & have a track record now. Can OSU do it?

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 minutes ago, AgaveMaria said:

Penn State underperformed this year. Different from past years.

Will it happen again? Maybe, and maybe not. I would not count on the Lions falling down again.

OSU with Taylor is looking good but we need a couple of NCAA's to see if they have that magic when the lights are on and it is all on the line. We have seen Penn State in these conditions & have a track record now. Can OSU do it?

 

The other thing that was different from past years was PSU's average seeds. No team has ever had an average seed of 2.6 before PSU did this year. Add to that that they had 10 wrestlers seeded that high and that makes it nearly impossible to outperform the average seed.

As far as past years, PSU has underperformed their seed in 6 of the 15 seasons (40%) since Sanderson took over.

[BruceyB]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The other thing that was different from past years was PSU's average seeds. No team has ever had an average seed of 2.6 before PSU did this year. Add to that that they had 10 wrestlers seeded that high and that makes it nearly impossible to outperform the average seed.

As far as past years, PSU has underperformed their seed in 6 of the 15 seasons (40%) since Sanderson took over.

#1 Lilledahl losing in the quarters, #2 Bartlett losing in the semis after beating Jesse twice, #3 SVN getting throttled early by Lovett, #1 Kasak losing to Blaze, #2 Levi losing to Hamiti, #3 Kerk (granted injured) losing as well. All six of those wrestlers were being picked by many to win the whole tournament. Penn State having 6 potential champs fall short of making the finals feels like a pretty big under performance when considering their track record in those types of matches.

[Pinnacle]

16 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

#1 Lilledahl losing in the quarters, #2 Bartlett losing in the semis after beating Jesse twice, #3 SVN getting throttled early by Lovett, #1 Kasak losing to Blaze, #2 Levi losing to Hamiti, #3 Kerk (granted injured) losing as well. All six of those wrestlers were being picked by many to win the whole tournament. Penn State having 6 potential champs fall short of making the finals feels like a pretty big under performance when considering their track record in those types of matches.

They underperformed all the way to a new team scoring record for the second year in a row. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, BruceyB said:

#1 Lilledahl losing in the quarters, #2 Bartlett losing in the semis after beating Jesse twice, #3 SVN getting throttled early by Lovett, #1 Kasak losing to Blaze, #2 Levi losing to Hamiti, #3 Kerk (granted injured) losing as well. All six of those wrestlers were being picked by many to win the whole tournament. Penn State having 6 potential champs fall short of making the finals feels like a pretty big under performance when considering their track record in those types of matches.

That ignores a whole lot of stuff.

In spite of the fact that their average finish was third....read that again....their average finish was third.....across ten guys, it is only "underperformance" because their average seed was 2.6 AND they could do no better than finish first in any weight.

I will go out on a limb here and say that no team will ever have an average seed of 2.6 or better AND outperform that seed with six or more wrestlers.

The highest average seed to ever outperform their seed is 2024 PSU which was seeded 4.0 on average and finished 3.6 on average. Of course, to do that they needed the prohibitive favorite to get injured, forfeit two matches, and get seeded 9th so that there were 8 potential slots of improvement.

Let's say Starocci was seeded first instead. Then they would have had an average seed of 3.2 and an average finish of 3.6 for an identical -0.4 performance as 2025.

[BruceyB]

2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

That ignores a whole lot of stuff.

In spite of the fact that their average finish was third....read that again....their average finish was third.....across ten guys, it is only "underperformance" because their average seed was 2.6 AND they could do no better than finish first in any weight.

I will go out on a limb here and say that no team will ever have an average seed of 2.6 or better AND outperform that seed with six or more wrestlers.

The highest average seed to ever outperform their seed is 2024 PSU which was seeded 4.0 on average and finished 3.6 on average. Of course, to do that they needed the prohibitive favorite to get injured, forfeit two matches, and get seeded 9th so that there were 8 potential slots of improvement.

Let's say Starocci was seeded first instead. Then they would have had an average seed of 3.2 and an average finish of 3.6 for an identical -0.4 performance as 2025.

Look, we're nitpicking at their record breaking performance. You're ignoring my point though. How many times has PSU had a #1 seed lose in the quarters? What is their winning percentage in the semis? What is their winning percentage when the higher seed in the semis? How do the percentages this year stack up against their historic success in those rounds? 

Lilledahl and Kasak came back for third, great. But taking losses in matches where they were both heavy favorites would be a down performance regardless of them coming back for third. Bartlett, SVN, Haines, and Kerk all losing, making PSU 1-4 in the semis in toss-up matches was a down performance for the round.

People thought PSU could realistically have 9 wrestlers make the finals, and 8 legitimate title contenders going into the tournament, and only 3 made the finals, and they left the tournament with 2 champions. 

It would have been a Jimmy take if you went into the tournament saying that Lilledahl, Bartlett, SVN, Kasak, Haines, and Kerk would all be wrestling on the backside of the bracket on Saturday. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

14 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

Look, we're nitpicking at their record breaking performance. You're ignoring my point though. How many times has PSU had a #1 seed lose in the quarters? What is their winning percentage in the semis? What is their winning percentage when the higher seed in the semis? How do the percentages this year stack up against their historic success in those rounds? 

Lilledahl and Kasak came back for third, great. But taking losses in matches where they were both heavy favorites would be a down performance regardless of them coming back for third. Bartlett, SVN, Haines, and Kerk all losing, making PSU 1-4 in the semis in toss-up matches was a down performance for the round.

People thought PSU could realistically have 9 wrestlers make the finals, and 8 legitimate title contenders going into the tournament, and only 3 made the finals, and they left the tournament with 2 champions. 

It would have been a Jimmy take if you went into the tournament saying that Lilledahl, Bartlett, SVN, Kasak, Haines, and Kerk would all be wrestling on the backside of the bracket on Saturday. 

JC's take would have been Thursday.

My take was that the most likely outcome was 3 champions (29.1%), followed closely by 2 champions (27.7%), then 4 (17.9%), 1 (14.9%). Anyone who thought PSU could have 9 in the finals was, by definition, not being realistic. They were being optimistic.

So 6 guys on the backside Saturday (aka wrestling for third through eighth) would fit perfectly. The only way you can argue "underperform" is if everything went perfectly for 10 guys. It just never happens that way.

[RandolphTJones]

Im not PSU guy by any means but why no love for Mirasola?

Trumble and Bastida the 2 favorites heading into next season? Big whoop. Wouldn't shock me if Mirasola wins it all. 

[BruceyB]

16 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

JC's take would have been Thursday.

My take was that the most likely outcome was 3 champions (29.1%), followed closely by 2 champions (27.7%), then 4 (17.9%), 1 (14.9%). Anyone who thought PSU could have 9 in the finals was, by definition, not being realistic. They were being optimistic.

So 6 guys on the backside Saturday (aka wrestling for third through eighth) would fit perfectly. The only way you can argue "underperform" is if everything went perfectly for 10 guys. It just never happens that way.

During Cael's run since their first team title in 2011 these are their seasons ranked by NCAA finalists / champions. 

1. 2022: 5 finalists / 5 champs

2. 2017: 5 finalists / 5 champs

3. 2024: 6 finalists / 4 champs

4. 2018: 5 finalists / 4 champs

5. 2021: 4 finalists / 4 champs

6. 2019: 5 finalists / 3 champs

7. 2012: 5 finalists / 3 champs

8. 2013: 5 finalists / 2 champs

9. 2016: 5 finalists / 2 champs

10. 2023: 5 finalists / 2 champs

11. 2025: 3 finalists / 2 champs

12. 2014: 2 finalists / 2 champs

13. 2011: 3 finalists / 1 champ

14. 2015: 1 finalist / 1 champ

As you stated above, no team has ever had an higher average seed than this years PSU team. Given that, this is the best team that Penn State has ever put on the mat. So how can the best team be in 11th for total finalists and tied for 8th for total champions without underperforming? This is actually their worst season in the last decade as far as finalists and champions are concerned.

 

 

 

[BruceyB]

6 minutes ago, RandolphTJones said:

Im not PSU guy by any means but why no love for Mirasola?

Trumble and Bastida the 2 favorites heading into next season? Big whoop. Wouldn't shock me if Mirasola wins it all. 

People are really not giving Cole Mirasola enough credit. He took two losses, one to Luffman and one to Feldman as a true freshman that is adjusting to wrestling heavyweight. Next year will be interesting because with the final bosses gone, this weight is wide open. I think Kueter should be about as big of a favorite as anyone going into next year. None of the top guys are going to be the size of Kerk, Wyatt, Schultz, or Gable next year.

[okokzach]

12 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

People are really not giving Cole Mirasola enough credit. He took two losses, one to Luffman and one to Feldman as a true freshman that is adjusting to wrestling heavyweight. Next year will be interesting because with the final bosses gone, this weight is wide open. I think Kueter should be about as big of a favorite as anyone going into next year. None of the top guys are going to be the size of Kerk, Wyatt, Schultz, or Gable next year.

Credit for what though? His best two wins were against guys who went a combined 1-4 at NCAAs and he lost to two R12 guys. I expect him to improve a lot and he has a real shot to AA, but I don't see a reason to credit him with contender status. 

Edited 7 hours ago by okokzach

[Wrestleknownothing]

29 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

During Cael's run since their first team title in 2011 these are their seasons ranked by NCAA finalists / champions. 

1. 2022: 5 finalists / 5 champs

2. 2017: 5 finalists / 5 champs

3. 2024: 6 finalists / 4 champs

4. 2018: 5 finalists / 4 champs

5. 2021: 4 finalists / 4 champs

6. 2019: 5 finalists / 3 champs

7. 2012: 5 finalists / 3 champs

8. 2013: 5 finalists / 2 champs

9. 2016: 5 finalists / 2 champs

10. 2023: 5 finalists / 2 champs

11. 2025: 3 finalists / 2 champs

12. 2014: 2 finalists / 2 champs

13. 2011: 3 finalists / 1 champ

14. 2015: 1 finalist / 1 champ

As you stated above, no team has ever had an higher average seed than this years PSU team. Given that, this is the best team that Penn State has ever put on the mat. So how can the best team be in 11th for total finalists and tied for 8th for total champions without underperforming? This is actually their worst season in the last decade as far as finalists and champions are concerned.

 

 

 

177 points is pretty strong evidence against their worst season. You are only focused on ceilings and ignoring that floors raised significantly more than ceilings fell.