Did PSUs weak schedule ruin starocci’s chances of the hodge?

[Caveira]

What could psu have done better to help starocci win the hodge?

if they scheduled a tougher early season opponent like okst, or uni, or Iowa state carter would potentially have another bonus win over top 5ish competition.  

What if they scheduled a tough opponent late in the season instead of American.     What if they didn’t have such a weak early season schedule.

Lesser early season opponents that did not qualify for NCAAs 

Hoose drexel

white American 

karpinski army

daily Mich st

ebert binghamton

willis ar little rock

Second question.  If they went to a real Xmas tourney like Cklv/scuffle/midlands he would have 5 ish more chances at getting bonus point victory against higher quality competition.     

what if carter was 35 and 0 with 8 more bonus victories.    That would have upped all his stats and made this closer race tip more in his favor.    That would bump his bonus % above Wyatt and likely help with strength of schedule.    It may also make mm look better but I suspect psu fans would prefer mm to have won over Wyatt.  

[Wrestleknownothing]

3 minutes ago, Caveira said:

 That would bump his bonus % above Wyatt and likely help with strength of schedule.  

His bonus percentage was above Hendrickson's

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

Wyatt beating Gable was all that was needed. 

[Caveira]

6 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

His bonus percentage was above Hendrickson's

It would be much higher if he ran the table at a big Xmas tourney though….. that or adding some tougher competition early/Late season.  Good catch. 

Edited Thursday at 02:12 AM by Caveira

[okokzach]

9 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

His bonus percentage was above Hendrickson's

not if you credit him for his win in the All Star Classic

[Caveira]

Just now, okokzach said:

not if you credit him for his win in the All Star Classic

Unfortunately that match has been unofficial forever.  

[Wrasslin]

12 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Wyatt beating Gable was all that was needed. 

Correct. 

Thing is, you can crunch numbers all you want (and we did), but as Aaron Levenstein put it, "Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." 

Humans do the voting. They have built-in bias based on their experiences/preferences. The literal end of the wrestling season, and what we remember, was Wyatt doing the unthinkable and beating Gable. People make emotional votes, backed by statistics they see fit (that support their view- see quote above), and that's how it goes. Not saying it's good or bad, just how it is. Want proof? Hendrickson wasn't even in the top 3 being considered until he beat (and replaced) Gable. 

[okokzach]

3 minutes ago, Caveira said:

Unfortunately that match has been unofficial forever.  

Yes, it's an exhibition match, but you won't find a person who advocated for Carter for the Hodge that doesn't note that he beat Keck twice (but they all also fail to include it in the calculations)

[okokzach]

1 minute ago, Wrasslin said:

People make emotional votes ... Want proof? Hendrickson wasn't even in the top 3 being considered until he beat (and replaced) Gable. 

That doesn't prove anything except that people were ranking based on their assumption that Gable would go undefeated. It's wrong to view the previous rankings as a knock against Hendrickson or his season-long dominance

[Wrasslin]

5 minutes ago, okokzach said:

That doesn't prove anything except that people were ranking based on their assumption that Gable would go undefeated. It's wrong to view the previous rankings as a knock against Hendrickson or his season-long dominance

It's not a knock against Hendrickson. . . simply pointing out human bias. His win over Gable, other than adding a win to his record, actually lowered his statistical dominance score in all other statistical categories (a regular decision win), yet propelled him to his Hodge anyway. And Starocci couldn't have done anything more than he did to convince voters in his favor. 

Edited Thursday at 02:30 AM by Wrasslin

[Wrestleknownothing]

13 minutes ago, okokzach said:

not if you credit him for his win in the All Star Classic

Kind of a silly argument.

[Hammerlock3]

25 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Wyatt beating Gable was all that was needed. 

"best story" is obviously an unstated criteria, guess you could file part of that under sportsmanship.

[okokzach]

7 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Kind of a silly argument.

How so? It would be silly to give him credit for the All Star victory and then not include it in his statistics. 

[okokzach]

13 minutes ago, Wrasslin said:

It's not a knock against Hendrickson. . . simply pointing out human bias. His win over Gable, other than adding a win to his record, actually lowered his statistical dominance score in all other statistical categories (a regular decision win), yet propelled him to his Hodge anyway. And Starocci couldn't have done anything more than he did to convince voters in his favor. 

It lowered his dominance score but they were still well above Mitch and Carter's. But it also added significantly to his quality of competition criteria. I don't disagree with you about humans and their love of a good narrative, but I don't think you can write it off as simply that. And I dont know what you mean that Starocci couldn't have done more to convince voters 

[Wrestleknownothing]

5 minutes ago, okokzach said:

How so? It would be silly to give him credit for the All Star victory and then not include it in his statistics. 

Yes, it would be. That is why he wasn't credited for it. It does not show up on his record, it was not included in any of the data WIN shared with the voting form.

[Le duke]

It would be much higher if he ran the table at a big Xmas tourney though….. that or adding some tougher competition early/Late season.  Good catch. 

Like, I dunno, Parker Keckeisen?

Carter beat the #2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 guys in the country.

The only 2025 AA he didn’t beat at some point in the season was Foca, the 5th place finisher.

Adding some patsies to the schedule doesn’t help him, other than pad his stats.


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[headshuck]

How many nail-biter OT matches did each Hodge finalist have?

[Le duke]

How many nail-biter OT matches did each Hodge finalist have?

Zero?


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[BruceyB]

They both had incredible seasons, but at the end of the day, the Hodge is a subjective award and shouldn't change how you view a wrestlers career. Winning it says something, but not winning it doesn't say much. I don't look at Nolf, Zain, or Ruth any differently than Nickal because they aren't Hodge winners. Tbh, some weights are just easier to separate yourself from the field. Curious to see a chart of which weights have produced the most Hodge winners. I would certainly think it's 165 or higher. 

[Le duke]

They both had incredible seasons, but at the end of the day, the Hodge is a subjective award and shouldn't change how you view a wrestlers career. Winning it says something, but not winning it doesn't say much. I don't look at Nolf, Zain, or Ruth any differently than Nickal because they aren't Hodge winners. Tbh, some weights are just easier to separate yourself from the field. Curious to see a chart of which weights have produced the most Hodge winners. I would certainly think it's 165 or higher. 

Zain owns two Dan Hodge trophies.


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[Caveira]

11 minutes ago, Le duke said:

Zain owns two Dan Hodge trophies.


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Zain was mega dominant.   Really fun to watch even if I don’t like psu.   Maybe there should be a Zain train award down the road.  

[scourge165]

2 hours ago, Caveira said:

It would be much higher if he ran the table at a big Xmas tourney though….. that or adding some tougher competition early/Late season.  Good catch. 

"Much closer?" How close do you supposed it could have gotten?

The committee voted for him, the Fan vote went to Hendrickson...

Hendrickson beating Stevenson was the end. 

But yeah...he had that soft late season competition. Like...the Iowa Duel, the B1Gs...

 

You're doing a bad Jimmy. 

[scourge165]

1 hour ago, BruceyB said:

They both had incredible seasons, but at the end of the day, the Hodge is a subjective award and shouldn't change how you view a wrestlers career. Winning it says something, but not winning it doesn't say much. I don't look at Nolf, Zain, or Ruth any differently than Nickal because they aren't Hodge winners. Tbh, some weights are just easier to separate yourself from the field. Curious to see a chart of which weights have produced the most Hodge winners. I would certainly think it's 165 or higher. 

It definitely is. HWT is the most, then 165, then I think 177/184, 190/197...165 is like up there on the list with 4(I think 2 were Taylor...I'd guess Dake won one...so three years in a row and then...Ringer may have won one). 

 

It definitely skews heavier though. I should have cut and pasted it as the AI answer I just got said 165 was the most and...I know that's wrong. Hendrickson, Parris, Gable(2X), Mocco won one, Neal and then...Rowlands or McCoy. It was 7. I can't believe Gwidz or Snyder aren't in here, but...I don't THINK one ever won it. 
Also, 165 is at least 5 now that I think about it. JB won it. 

The only '25 and '33 that won it were Lee and Ness I think. 134(which is 141 basicaly) was Tj Jaworsky, Stieber, Stiener(?).

 

This is...actually really easy to find is you just search by Hodge, but...I'm just gonna leave it here as I've already heart by brain enough trying to remember. 

[1032004]

8 hours ago, okokzach said:

Yes, it's an exhibition match, but you won't find a person who advocated for Carter for the Hodge that doesn't note that he beat Keck twice (but they all also fail to include it in the calculations)

This is a good point, I know Pyles as an example would constantly talk about how he beat Keckeisen “twice.”   I don’t recall if he also used the “higher bonus %” argument though?

But, to be fair, looks like giving Starocci 1 more decision victory actually makes his bonus rate exactly equal to Wyatt’s, not lower (and I don’t believe you claimed it did).  I know @Husker_Du did call out (using one of his voices) that it was silly for people to say “but Carter had a higher bonus rate!” because it was only the difference of 1 match.

 

[1032004]

But to answer the question I’d say no.  I thought the quality of competition criteria was pretty close.  IMO what made Wyatt the correct answer were his pins, and Carter’s instances of poor sportsmanship.