Poll: Who wins the 2025 Hodge?

[PortaJohn]

@Jon_Kozak Mitchell is getting some love for the Hodge but it looks like you fellas at Flo don't think too highly of him.  Your P4P rankings on Jan 27th are even more interesting... https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/12557781-2024-25-ncaa-di-wrestling-rankings/52982-p4p-gable-steveson

[ionel]

I'm just happy there are no votes for Mittich Messenbrink. 

[okokzach]

6 hours ago, PortaJohn said:

@Jon_Kozak Mitchell is getting some love for the Hodge but it looks like you fellas at Flo don't think too highly of him.  Your P4P rankings on Jan 27th are even more interesting... https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/12557781-2024-25-ncaa-di-wrestling-rankings/52982-p4p-gable-steveson

P4P 10th is pretty high. Look at who they have in front of him. There aren't many you can quibble with. That said, P4P and Hodge are very different. He's 2nd! in their Hodge ranking ahead of Starocci and behind Gable. 

https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/12977171-2024-25-dan-hodge-trophy-award-rankings/53135-2025-dan-hodge-trophy-rankings

[CHROMEBIRD]

Mendez out of the 100% bonus club, and he gave up a takedown last night. Impressive showing by Vombaur.

[Jon_Kozak]

On 2/7/2025 at 9:29 PM, PortaJohn said:

@Jon_Kozak Mitchell is getting some love for the Hodge but it looks like you fellas at Flo don't think too highly of him.  Your P4P rankings on Jan 27th are even more interesting... https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/12557781-2024-25-ncaa-di-wrestling-rankings/52982-p4p-gable-steveson

He's ranked 10th behind guys who have all won NCAAs and Ryan Crookham who beat Vito twice last year (better wins than Mesenbrink has ever had). Mesenrbink is obviously incredible but he still has never defeated an NCAA Champ.

We think pretty highly of him considering he's ranked above 3 NCAA champs in the p4p.

[PortaJohn]

19 minutes ago, Jon_Kozak said:

He's ranked 10th behind guys who have all won NCAAs and Ryan Crookham who beat Vito twice last year (better wins than Mesenbrink has ever had). Mesenrbink is obviously incredible but he still has never defeated an NCAA Champ.

We think pretty highly of him considering he's ranked above 3 NCAA champs in the p4p.

Is it necessary to use the same criteria for P4P as you would for weight classes?  P4P is theoretical.  Wouldn't it make more sense to use similar metrics used for the Hodge?  Do you honestly believe many of those wrestlers ranked higher than Mitchell are better wrestlers?   

[BruceyB]

7 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

Is it necessary to use the same criteria for P4P as you would for weight classes?  P4P is theoretical.  Wouldn't it make more sense to use similar metrics used for the Hodge?  Do you honestly believe many of those wrestlers ranked higher than Mitchell are better wrestlers?   

I think it's just easier to justify. But I'm with you, I think Mesenbrink could be as high as #5. 

[PortaJohn]

1 minute ago, BruceyB said:

I think it's just easier to justify. But I'm with you, I think Mesenbrink could be as high as #5. 

I hope @Jon_Kozakresponds.  I'm genuinely curious what metrics they are using.  Just off the little he posted I assume Flo would rank Dake ahead of Cael Sanderson in the greatest P4P rankings.  He has more quality wins in the finals (Molinaro, St. John and the big one DT)

[Jon_Kozak]

27 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

I hope @Jon_Kozakresponds.  I'm genuinely curious what metrics they are using.  Just off the little he posted I assume Flo would rank Dake ahead of Cael Sanderson in the greatest P4P rankings.  He has more quality wins in the finals (Molinaro, St. John and the big one DT)

lol that's a pretty poor comparison considering Mesenbrink lost his only match against a top 5 p4p guy

p4p takes into consideration the entirety of a wrestler's career and at this point, Mesenbrink has a season and a half. What's his best win? Probably Dean Hamiti who we know have ranked 20th in p4p. Also, rankings aren't predictions and while I expect Mesenbrink to run the table and probably end up in the top 5 p4p, he still has to do it.

[billyhoyle]

2 hours ago, Jon_Kozak said:

lol that's a pretty poor comparison considering Mesenbrink lost his only match against a top 5 p4p guy

p4p takes into consideration the entirety of a wrestler's career and at this point, Mesenbrink has a season and a half. What's his best win? Probably Dean Hamiti who we know have ranked 20th in p4p. Also, rankings aren't predictions and while I expect Mesenbrink to run the table and probably end up in the top 5 p4p, he still has to do it.

Rankings can be subjective. You can use your eyes to tell you that this guy clearly is already top 5 p4p.  At the very least, you should rank him above Haines, who has more close matches this year, including a loss, and obviously couldn't beat out Mesenbrink at 165. 

Edited 19 hours ago by billyhoyle

[Jon_Kozak]

9 hours ago, billyhoyle said:

Rankings can be subjective. You can use your eyes to tell you that this guy clearly is already top 5 p4p.  At the very least, you should rank him above Haines, who has more close matches this year, including a loss, and obviously couldn't beat out Mesenbrink at 165. 

Most would say rankings should be as objective as possible. Obviously there's subjectivity in the p4p but we try to hold to wins and losses determining a ranking. 

Also, you're definitely assuming Levi Haines couldn't beat Mesenbrink - Haines' 1 loss this year was to KOT who has 2 wins over the guy who beat Mesenbrink. Beyond that, Haines was an undefeated NCAA Champ last year, a feat that Mesenbrink still hasn't accomplished. 

[KCMO2]

On 1/19/2025 at 11:38 AM, nhs67 said:

Career isn't a criteria any more.

Technically, but it's a subjective vote, so of course it is considered by the voters.

Edited 8 hours ago by KCMO2

[PortaJohn]

1 hour ago, Jon_Kozak said:

Most would say rankings should be as objective as possible. Obviously there's subjectivity in the p4p but we try to hold to wins and losses determining a ranking. 

Also, you're definitely assuming Levi Haines couldn't beat Mesenbrink - Haines' 1 loss this year was to KOT who has 2 wins over the guy who beat Mesenbrink. Beyond that, Haines was an undefeated NCAA Champ last year, a feat that Mesenbrink still hasn't accomplished. 

Wouldn't ranking Steveson over Starocci be mostly subjective?  Body of work Starocci has more impressive victories and more titles

[nhs67]

20 minutes ago, KCMO2 said:

Technically, but it's a subjective vote, so of course it is considered by the voters.

That's as may be, but using it as justification (for anyone) would dictate that those folks shouldn't get a vote.

There is a criteria.  Stick to it.

It is like the All-Star Classic 'not' being taken into account for rankings.  It does.  It shouldn't.  It does.

[Jon_Kozak]

29 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

Wouldn't ranking Steveson over Starocci be mostly subjective?  Body of work Starocci has more impressive victories and more titles

Gable's won 2 Hodges - both during years where Starocci was in the field.

Gable is 5-0 against another Hodge winner - Mason Parris.

Gable's 2 losses (both 2 Anthony Cassar) are "better" losses than Carter Starocci's (DJ Washington and Michael Kemerer). 

Those are all the objective reasons why we have Gable over Starocci.

[PortaJohn]

1 minute ago, Jon_Kozak said:

Gable's won 2 Hodges - both during years where Starocci was in the field.

Gable is 5-0 against another Hodge winner - Mason Parris.

Gable's 2 losses (both 2 Anthony Cassar) are "better" losses than Carter Starocci's (DJ Washington and Michael Kemerer). 

Those are all the objective reasons why we have Gable over Starocci.

 - Carter has won a title in every year he's competed.  Gable hasn't

 - He has victories over 2 returning national champs.   3 if you count the Keck match. Gable never beat a returning Champ.

- Has better overall victories; Kem, Labs, Hidlay, etc

-More career victories

I'd rank Gable over Carter in the  p4p rankings but I wouldn't claim it had anything other to do with the fact that I think he is better.  Carter has a better body of work

 

[BruceyB]

9 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

 - Carter has won a title in every year he's competed.  Gable hasn't

 - He has victories over 2 returning national champs.   3 if you count the Keck match. Gable never beat a returning Champ.

- Has better overall victories; Kem, Labs, Hidlay, etc

-More career victories

I'd rank Gable over Carter in the  p4p rankings but I wouldn't claim it had anything other to do with the fact that I think he is better.  Carter has a better body of work

 

I think if you win a Hodge, awarded to the most dominant wrestler in college, that should probably put near if not at the top of the list. 

[Gus]

32 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

 - Carter has won a title in every year he's competed.  Gable hasn't

 - He has victories over 2 returning national champs.   3 if you count the Keck match. Gable never beat a returning Champ.

- Has better overall victories; Kem, Labs, Hidlay, etc

-More career victories

I'd rank Gable over Carter in the  p4p rankings but I wouldn't claim it had anything other to do with the fact that I think he is better.  Carter has a better body of work

 

The Mason Paris wins (5 of them) are the best wins of the bunch. 

[Truzzcat]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought past accolades were removed from the hodge criteria? Jesse having the close one with Vombaur definitely dings him but if he wins 141 it will be hard to argue with that strength of schedule at least in my opinion if he puts up above an 80% bonus rate. Mitchell is going to be the most dominant guy besides Gable but is probably also at arguably the weakest weight in the country. If gable were to bonus Kerk at big 10's or NCAA's he would be my odds-on favorite. Carter beating Pk with a 90% bonus rate will also be a great resume. 

Gable
Carter
MM
Jesse 

Thats the order I would go with, but I think all have certain arguments going in their favor. Darkhorse Wyatt if he somehow won heavy.

[Jon_Kozak]

41 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

 - Carter has won a title in every year he's competed.  Gable hasn't

 - He has victories over 2 returning national champs.   3 if you count the Keck match. Gable never beat a returning Champ.

- Has better overall victories; Kem, Labs, Hidlay, etc

-More career victories

I'd rank Gable over Carter in the  p4p rankings but I wouldn't claim it had anything other to do with the fact that I think he is better.  Carter has a better body of work

 

"better overall victories" is pretty subjective

More career victories is only true if you count Carter's redshirt year. Gable didn't take a redshirt and he has 1 more victory than Starocci in non-redshirt matches. 

Also we haven't even mentioned bonus points - Gable has the clear advantage in this category - 76% for Gable compared to 60% for Starocci. 

To say there aren't objective reasons to rank Gable over Starocci is not true

[PortaJohn]

16 minutes ago, Gus said:

The Mason Paris wins (5 of them) are the best wins of the bunch. 

By what metric?  The last time Gable wrestled Mason, '22, Parris took 6 losses on the year.  Want to be clear.  I'm not arguing that Gable shouldn't be #1 p4p.  I would rank him #1.  Just pointing out that a p4p ranking is subjective and Mitchell should be higher

[PortaJohn]

5 minutes ago, Jon_Kozak said:

"better overall victories" is pretty subjective

More career victories is only true if you count Carter's redshirt year. Gable didn't take a redshirt and he has 1 more victory than Starocci in non-redshirt matches. 

Also we haven't even mentioned bonus points - Gable has the clear advantage in this category - 76% for Gable compared to 60% for Starocci. 

To say there aren't objective reasons to rank Gable over Starocci is not true

You literally used that logic to justify ranking Crookham over Mesenbrink.  My point is it's 90% subjective and a p4p ranking shouldn't be held hostage to weight class ranking metrics. 

[PortaJohn]

also @Jon_Kozak, appreciate you taking time out of your day and talking in circles with me.  Enjoy your content on Flo

[Gus]

4 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

By what metric?  The last time Gable wrestled Mason, '22, Parris took 6 losses on the year.  Want to be clear.  I'm not arguing that Gable shouldn't be #1 p4p.  I would rank him #1.  Just pointing out that a p4p ranking is subjective and Mitchell should be higher

Remember that Parris dealt with that neck injury in '22. He was a runner up in '21 and (once healthy again and no Gable) an undefeated hodge trophy winner in '23.

[PortaJohn]

2 minutes ago, Gus said:

Remember that Parris dealt with that neck injury in '22. He was a runner up in '21 and (once healthy again and no Gable) an undefeated hodge trophy winner in '23.

Mekhi and Griffith both dealt with injuries