Will Iowa be the first top-5 team to field a MAJORITY transfer lineup?

[fishbane]

4 minutes ago, Dogbone said:

Same question for:

Jimmy Lawson - 1x AA finishing 6th as a senior.  Improved.  From What?

Not to mention, claiming Long went from 2nd to 3rd is a no change but Dean went from 2nd to 1st to 7th is an improved??   I get 2nd to 3rd is marginally the same but you have to be consistent with everyone who went up or down a few podium spots then.

I also enjoyed how Cyler went from 7th to 6th but was an improved because he won the B1G when he never wrested in the B1G before.  His previous coaches must of been terrible   Good thing PSU improved him...

 

Jimmy Lawson wasn't placing at NCAAs out of high school.  He definitely improved at PSU. I don't know what your are getting at.  

Admittedly Long, Dean, Truax, and Sanderson were close calls.  Long and Truax each placed one spot lower at PSU.  Long had a better record, better seed, and won a conference title at PSU.  It seemed like it was too close to call to me.  Truax is a better case for regression.  He was 4th thrice at Cal Poly and 5th at PSU.  He also had more losses, but that could be higher strength of schedule in the Big Ten.  It would really be picking nits to say he regressed.

Putting Clyer in the improved pile was close.  His best season at ISU was very similar to his single season at PSU. I would have had him at no change if that had been the season before he arrived at PSU, but he transferred after his junior year.  That season he was 20-9 and 2-2 at NCAAs.  The next year he was 32-7, Big Ten Champ, and 6th.  The more compelling case why he shouldn't be included in an analysis of PSU transfers is of course that Sanderson was his previous coach.

Dean I think is pretty clearly in the improved at PSU group.  He was 8th and 2nd at Cornell and 1st and 7th at PSU and was up a weight at PSU.  He also lost more matches in his best season at Cornell than his entire time in Happy Valley. 

[fishbane]

11 minutes ago, ionel said:

That one got me as well.  And what about that out transfer Bubba Jenkins kid:  improve or no?  

Jenkins improved at ASU, but is a close call like Sanderson.

Everyone is pointing how Cael Sanderson was Cyler Sanderson erstwhile coach at ISU.  Berge transferred from Sanderson back to Sanderson too.  PSU->SDSU->PSU.

[MPhillips]

1 hour ago, fishbane said:

I don't know what your are getting at.  

How do Kerk and Mesenbrink improve from their previous college seasons by transferring to PSU when they never wrestled anywhere else (RS at Cal Bap is irrelevant)?

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

3 hours ago, fishbane said:

It probably comes down to small numbers.  Plenty of transfers have improved at PSU under Cael.  I think below is the list of transfers that made the starting lineup during his tenure.  I think the only ones that definitively were worse at PSU were Conel, Hildebrandt, and Nagao.  Nagao still has time to turn things around.  

Cyler Sanderson - Best finish at ISU was 7th.  At PSU he was Big Ten champ and finished 6th.  Improved.

Andrew Long - Was a national runner up at ISU.  He was 3rd at PSU and has a slightly better record. No change.

Jimmy Lawson - 1x AA finishing 6th as a senior.  Improved.

Jered Cortez - Similar performance as Illinois. No change.

Carson Kuhn - Similar performance. No change.

Brady Berge - Similar performance. No change.

Kyle Conel - 3rd place finish at the year before was an anomaly.  Injured.  Worse at PSU.

Greg Kerkvliet - National Champ.  Improved.

Max Dean - National Champ. Improved.

Drew Hildebrandt - Better at CMU.  Worse at PSU.

Mitchel Messenbrink - National runner-up. Improved.

Aaron Nagao - better at MN, but has two years left.  Worse at PSU.

Bernie Truax - 4th 3x at Cal Poly.  5th at PSU.  No change.

Long, Conel, Dean (7th), Hilde, Nagao, Truax all got worse.

MM and Kerk had no post-season data at other schools.

[MPhillips]

1 hour ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

MM and Kerk had no post-season data at other schools.

They had no data period, post season or otherwise, save for MM wrestling at CBU's opening tri meet before the RS...

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

They had no data period, post season or otherwise, save for MM wrestling at CBU's opening tri meet before the RS...

And did he win a national runner up at the CBU opening tri?

[fishbane]

4 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Long, Conel, Dean (7th), Hilde, Nagao, Truax all got worse.

MM and Kerk had no post-season data at other schools.

Perhaps they had a slightly worse result at NCAAs than the best result at their previous institution, but it isn't the whole picture.  I also think the assessment that they "got worse" is false for a majority of them.

Look at Hildebrandt for example.  He was 4th in 2021 and DNPed at PSU in 2022.  125lbs at the 2021 NCAA tournament had to be one of the weakest weights in recent memory.  You could take almost any place winner in that bracket and they failed to place higher in subsequent seasons.  Spencer Lee, Brandon Courtney, Pat McKee, Drew Hildebrandt, Sam Latona, Taylor LaMont - they all "got worse."  Hildebrandt only lost five matches at PSU - Suriano, McKee, DeAugustino, Noto, and Teske. McKee and DeAugustino he lost those guys and never beat them at CMU.  Suriano and Noto are probably better than peak CMU Hildebrandt.  The argument that he got worse essentials is he lost to Teske at NCAAs in 2022 and beat him in OT in 2021.  If he regressed at PSU it wasn't by much.  

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

11 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Perhaps they had a slightly worse result at NCAAs than the best result at their previous institution, but it isn't the whole picture.  I also think the assessment that they "got worse" is false for a majority of them.

Look at Hildebrandt for example.  He was 4th in 2021 and DNPed at PSU in 2022.  125lbs at the 2021 NCAA tournament had to be one of the weakest weights in recent memory.  You could take almost any place winner in that bracket and they failed to place higher in subsequent seasons.  Spencer Lee, Brandon Courtney, Pat McKee, Drew Hildebrandt, Sam Latona, Taylor LaMont - they all "got worse."  Hildebrandt only lost five matches at PSU - Suriano, McKee, DeAugustino, Noto, and Teske. McKee and DeAugustino he lost those guys and never beat them at CMU.  Suriano and Noto are probably better than peak CMU Hildebrandt.  The argument that he got worse essentials is he lost to Teske at NCAAs in 2022 and beat him in OT in 2021.  If he regressed at PSU it wasn't by much.  

That is a lot of losses in half a season for a returning AA who is upgraded to Cael.

[1032004]

26 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Perhaps they had a slightly worse result at NCAAs than the best result at their previous institution, but it isn't the whole picture.  I also think the assessment that they "got worse" is false for a majority of them.

Look at Hildebrandt for example.  He was 4th in 2021 and DNPed at PSU in 2022.  125lbs at the 2021 NCAA tournament had to be one of the weakest weights in recent memory.  You could take almost any place winner in that bracket and they failed to place higher in subsequent seasons.  Spencer Lee, Brandon Courtney, Pat McKee, Drew Hildebrandt, Sam Latona, Taylor LaMont - they all "got worse."  Hildebrandt only lost five matches at PSU - Suriano, McKee, DeAugustino, Noto, and Teske. McKee and DeAugustino he lost those guys and never beat them at CMU.  Suriano and Noto are probably better than peak CMU Hildebrandt.  The argument that he got worse essentials is he lost to Teske at NCAAs in 2022 and beat him in OT in 2021.  If he regressed at PSU it wasn't by much.  

I agree with your overall point here (Hildebrandt was basically the same guy at PSU and CMU), but there is some serious cherry-picking going on in your post.

McKee was 2 places worse in 2022 than 2021.

Courtney was 3 places worse in 2022 than 2021 (and finished only 1 place worse in 2023 than 2021).

Latona went from 6th in 2021 to R12 in 2022 (and finished 7th in 2023 at 133).

Basically the difference between 2021 and 2022 was the presence of Glory and Vito.  125 was the bracket most impacted by the Ivies not being able to compete in 2021.  So in theory most guys should have just slid down a couple places which all the above guys did.  But Hildebrandt went from 4th to going 1-2.  Which I’d honestly chalk up to just the overall parity at 125 the last few years.

To that point, interesting that your “getting worse” comment was specific to placers, as there were multiple guys that DNP’d in 2021 but AA’d in 2022:

DeAugustino R12 in 2021, 4th in 2022

Kaylor 0-2 in 2021, 8th in 2022

Plus Barnett who went from 8th in 2021 to 7th in 2022

Also, lol at including Spencer Lee in the list of “getting worse.”  That’s a comment I’d expect from Cinnabon.

 

 

 

[fishbane]

1 minute ago, 1032004 said:

...there is some serious cherry-picking going on in your post.

That is the point.  Some people were saying all these transfers into PSU "got worse."  I put it in quotes.  They did not.  There was a reason for that. Truax changing weights and his NCAA performance dropping from 4th to 5th is not what I would call getting worse. Some disagree.

13 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

McKee was 2 places worse in 2022 than 2021.

Courtney was 3 places worse in 2022 than 2021 (and finished only 1 place worse in 2023 than 2021).

Latona went from 6th in 2021 to R12 in 2022 (and finished 7th in 2023 at 133).

Basically the difference between 2021 and 2022 was the presence of Glory and Vito.  125 was the bracket most impacted by the Ivies not being able to compete in 2021.  So in theory most guys should have just slid down a couple places which all the above guys did.  But Hildebrandt went from 4th to going 1-2.  Which I’d honestly chalk up to just the overall parity at 125 the last few years.

Suriano was also missing in 2021, but perhaps you didn't mention him because his addition offset Lee's absence.

I think Hildebrandt had a good tournament in 2021, but there was also an element of good fortunate at play.  Some of the best guys sat out and he wrestled an abbreviated MAC-only schedule.  He entered NCAAs undefeated (10-0) and in that field it got him the 4 seed.  He made the semis and the best wrestler he had to beat to get there was Brody Teske, which he did in OT.  Teske wrestled an abbreviated Big 12-only schedule to a 12-1 record which was good enough for the 5th seed.  Teske's only regular season loss was to Courtney (ASU) and his best win was over Mastrogiovanni (OSU).  The 4 and 5 seeds typically enter NCAAs with more impressive wins than Mastrogiovanni (21 seed) and Noah Surtin (18 seed).  Hildebrandt went on to beat Latona in the consi semis 5-4 and ultimately finished 4th. His win over Latona that year at NCAAs is the only time in his entire career he beat an AA after they had AAed (Latona was guaranteed top 6 finish at the time of the match).  It was just a weird year and Hildebrandt made the most of it.

If Hildebrandt had wrestled a Big Ten schedule in 2021 he isn't the 4 seed.  This is exactly what happened the next year at PSU.  He also had some bad luck with the draw.  He drew Noto in the first round and then would have had to beat Teske, McKee and Cardinale on the trot to make the podium.  So 4th in 2021 to 1-2 in 2022 was caused by 1) a weaker field, 2) good luck with the draw from the MAC only schedule in 2021 vs Big Ten schedule and bad luck with the draw in 2022, and 3) parity - beating Teske in OT in 2021 and losing to him in 2022.  Hildebrandt wasn't noticeable worse at PSU.

1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

To that point, interesting that your “getting worse” comment was specific to placers, as there were multiple guys that DNP’d in 2021 but AA’d in 2022

I did this to prove a point.

1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

Also, lol at including Spencer Lee in the list of “getting worse.”  That’s a comment I’d expect from Cinnabon.

This too.  It makes as much sense as saying Gabe Dean "got worse" at PSU.

[1032004]

7 hours ago, fishbane said:

That is the point.  Some people were saying all these transfers into PSU "got worse."  I put it in quotes.  They did not.  There was a reason for that. Truax changing weights and his NCAA performance dropping from 4th to 5th is not what I would call getting worse. Some disagree.

Suriano was also missing in 2021, but perhaps you didn't mention him because his addition offset Lee's absence.

I think Hildebrandt had a good tournament in 2021, but there was also an element of good fortunate at play.  Some of the best guys sat out and he wrestled an abbreviated MAC-only schedule.  He entered NCAAs undefeated (10-0) and in that field it got him the 4 seed.  He made the semis and the best wrestler he had to beat to get there was Brody Teske, which he did in OT.  Teske wrestled an abbreviated Big 12-only schedule to a 12-1 record which was good enough for the 5th seed.  Teske's only regular season loss was to Courtney (ASU) and his best win was over Mastrogiovanni (OSU).  The 4 and 5 seeds typically enter NCAAs with more impressive wins than Mastrogiovanni (21 seed) and Noah Surtin (18 seed).  Hildebrandt went on to beat Latona in the consi semis 5-4 and ultimately finished 4th. His win over Latona that year at NCAAs is the only time in his entire career he beat an AA after they had AAed (Latona was guaranteed top 6 finish at the time of the match).  It was just a weird year and Hildebrandt made the most of it.

If Hildebrandt had wrestled a Big Ten schedule in 2021 he isn't the 4 seed.  This is exactly what happened the next year at PSU.  He also had some bad luck with the draw.  He drew Noto in the first round and then would have had to beat Teske, McKee and Cardinale on the trot to make the podium.  So 4th in 2021 to 1-2 in 2022 was caused by 1) a weaker field, 2) good luck with the draw from the MAC only schedule in 2021 vs Big Ten schedule and bad luck with the draw in 2022, and 3) parity - beating Teske in OT in 2021 and losing to him in 2022.  Hildebrandt wasn't noticeable worse at PSU.

I did this to prove a point.

This too.  It makes as much sense as saying Gabe Dean "got worse" at PSU.

Yeah I think the overall point is that as far as transfers into PSU go, for the most part they stay as pretty much the same guy they were before.  And to the subject of the thread, I’d say that’s mostly true for Iowa too.  Off the top of my head Michigan may have the best argument for transfers actually improving. They've had a couple do worse, but several do better such as Davison 5th to 2nd, Gomez 4th to 2nd, and Finesilver R16 to R12.  Cael may have some secret sauce, but seems like guys may need to be there for their whole career to see the benefit of it.   

Getting off topic but an interesting comparison to Hildebrandt IMO is Caleb Smith.   Hildebrandt seems to have been hurt by moving from the MAC to the B10 schedule, whereas Caleb Smith was helped by going from the SOCON to the B10.  Smith was the 5 seed in 2023 and went 0-2, but was the 15 seed in 2024 and finished 6th, including beating one of the guys that beat him in 2023.

[Dogbone]

17 hours ago, fishbane said:

Jimmy Lawson wasn't placing at NCAAs out of high school.  He definitely improved at PSU. I don't know what your are getting at.  

Admittedly Long, Dean, Truax, and Sanderson were close calls.  Long and Truax each placed one spot lower at PSU.  Long had a better record, better seed, and won a conference title at PSU.  It seemed like it was too close to call to me.  Truax is a better case for regression.  He was 4th thrice at Cal Poly and 5th at PSU.  He also had more losses, but that could be higher strength of schedule in the Big Ten.  It would really be picking nits to say he regressed.

Regarding Lawson - he had no data and never wrestled for a different institution post HS so I don't know how you can say he improved when he didn't wrestle anywhere else, just like Kerk and MM

With regard to the bold, I am just saying be consistent, you want to say they all stayed the relatively the same, that's fine I would agree, but you took every PSU guy who when up and said improved and everyone one that went down and said no change.   You're cherry picking results to fit your narrative. 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

12 hours ago, fishbane said:

sense as saying Gabe Dean "got worse" at PSU.

Spencer Lee isn't currently losing to high school kids.

[BigRedFan]

 

12 hours ago, fishbane said:

 

This too.  It makes as much sense as saying Gabe Dean "got worse" at PSU.

IIRC, Gabe Dean went from a 3/1/1/2 NCAA record at Cornell to <checks notes> not winning another match at Penn State.  Definitely didn't improve at PSU.  Sad!

[fishbane]

45 minutes ago, Dogbone said:

Regarding Lawson - he had no data and never wrestled for a different institution post HS so I don't know how you can say he improved when he didn't wrestle anywhere else, just like Kerk and MM

The same way I can accurately say David Taylor improved at PSU.

46 minutes ago, Dogbone said:

With regard to the bold, I am just saying be consistent, you want to say they all stayed the relatively the same, that's fine I would agree, but you took every PSU guy who when up and said improved and everyone one that went down and said no change.   You're cherry picking results to fit your narrative. 

I don't see how I cherry picked anything.  I literally listed every transfer that made the lineup.  It's too difficult to tell if Kurt McHenry improved when he was never a starter at Michigan and never a starter at PSU.  You and other don't want to count improvements of Lawson, Mesenbrink, Kerkvliet, etc.  I already explained why I said Dean and Sanderson were improved at PSU. Can you not follow the line of thinking at all?

Sanderson 2009 at ISU 20-9, 4th Big 12, 2-2 DNP NCAAs.  2010 at PSU 32-7, Big Ten Champ, 6th NCAAs.

Max Dean at Cornell 54-12, EIWA Champ, 8th and 2nd at NCAAs, failed to qualify for the 2021 OTTs.  At PSU 48-6, Big Ten champ, NCAA Champ, NCAA 7th place, qualified for the 2024 OTTs.

[fishbane]

1 hour ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Spencer Lee isn't currently losing to high school kids.

Max Dean didn't qualify for the 2021 OTT whilst at Cornell.  After moving to Happy Valley he did.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

1 minute ago, fishbane said:

Max Dean didn't qualify for the 2021 OTT whilst at Cornell.  After moving to Happy Valley he did.

I repeat... tough to compare him to Spencer.  Spencer hasn't lost to a high school kid since...high school.

[fishbane]

3 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

I repeat... tough to compare him to Spencer.  Spencer hasn't lost to a high school kid since...high school.

Spencer Lee is 0-0 against wrestlers currently enrolled in high school since graduating high school himself.  What exactly does that mean?

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

4 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Spencer Lee is 0-0 against wrestlers currently enrolled in high school since graduating high school himself.  What exactly does that mean?

So, no losses?

How many times has Max Dean lost to high school wrestlers as a PSU/NLWC athlete?

I guess it was a bad idea to bring up Max Dean as a comparison to Spencer Freaking Lee?

[Winners Circle]

19 hours ago, Dogbone said:

Same question for:

Jimmy Lawson - 1x AA finishing 6th as a senior.  Improved.  From What?

Not to mention, claiming Long went from 2nd to 3rd is a no change but Dean went from 2nd to 1st to 7th is an improved??   I get 2nd to 3rd is marginally the same but you have to be consistent with everyone who went up or down a few podium spots then.

I also enjoyed how Cyler went from 7th to 6th but was an improved because he won the B1G when he never wrested in the B1G before.  His previous coaches must of been terrible   Good thing PSU improved him...

 

Improved from playing football at Monmouth University to wrestling AA. Haha

[fishbane]

4 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

So, no losses?

And no wins.  A ton of information in that there data.

5 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

I guess it was a bad idea to bring up Max Dean as a comparison to Spencer Freaking Lee?

It would depend on context. Context was, Gabe typo notwithstanding, Saying Spencer Lee "got worse" between 2021 NCAAs and 2023 NCAAs "makes as much sense as saying Max Dean 'got worse' at PSU."   I don't think Spencer Lee got worse at wrestling between 2021 NCAAs and 2023 NCAAs.  I also think Max Dean improved at wrestling at wrestling at PSU.  A statement contradicting either would make no sense to me.  And I am not following where you are going. How exactly is all this talk of records vs high school wrestlers relevant in the context I mentioned Dean and Lee? 

[Pinnacle]

53 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Spencer Lee is 0-0 against wrestlers currently enrolled in high school since graduating high school himself.  What exactly does that mean?

It probably means he likes to troll PSU fans. I mean, how else to explain half his posts about PSU?

[Truzzcat]

I wonder if you could attribute the transfer "issues" of Penn State more to a change in schedule than anyone else. As of recently they wrestle the black knight and thats about it for tournaments until the post season. They wrestle a very difficult dual schedule but maybe if you are use to having 30+ matches and a couple feels at a two day weigh in + multiple matches it is hard to adjust to purely dual meets, and even at that very few of their guys wrestle in every dual. Im not saying this is a bad thing they peak better than any team has for the past decade but perhaps its difficult for transfers to adapt.

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

So, no losses?

How many times has Max Dean lost to high school wrestlers as a PSU/NLWC athlete?

I guess it was a bad idea to bring up Max Dean as a comparison to Spencer Freaking Lee?

Wait, Spencer is ducking high school kids? We need to revoke the Freakin'.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

44 minutes ago, fishbane said:

And no wins.  A ton of information in that there data.

It would depend on context. Context was, Gabe typo notwithstanding, Saying Spencer Lee "got worse" between 2021 NCAAs and 2023 NCAAs "makes as much sense as saying Max Dean 'got worse' at PSU."   I don't think Spencer Lee got worse at wrestling between 2021 NCAAs and 2023 NCAAs.  I also think Max Dean improved at wrestling at wrestling at PSU.  A statement contradicting either would make no sense to me.  And I am not following where you are going. How exactly is all this talk of records vs high school wrestlers relevant in the context I mentioned Dean and Lee? 

I DO think he got worse.  He was better pre-Covid.