Why is the US getting a disproportionate number of first round matchups vs #1 seeds?

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

This is too crazy to just be a statistical anomaly at this point.

[Spladle08]

4 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

This is too crazy to just be a statistical anomaly at this point.

How many have we had. Amit and Brooks? Who am I missing (off the top of my head) ohhh Coon. 

[Spladle08]

5 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

This is too crazy to just be a statistical anomaly at this point.

or do you mean tough opponents.... tis the Olympics 

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

I think 5 or 6 US wrestlers have had first round #1 seed matchups

[Spladle08]

4 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

I think 5 or 6 US wrestlers have had first round #1 seed matchups

Type them out. 
I mean Amit did. 
Coon did. 
Brooks will. 

Who else has wrestled. 
Spicey Lee won't
Sarah didn't 
Dommy didnt. 
Jacobsen didn't
Rau didnt
Bey didn't

I'm not sure who else has wrestled. But 3 is a lot out of 9 I mean 30% is statistically high but tis the draw 

[cowcards]

8 minutes ago, Spladle08 said:

Type them out. 
I mean Amit did. 
Coon did. 
Brooks will. 

Who else has wrestled. 
Spicey Lee won't
Sarah didn't 
Dommy didnt. 
Jacobsen didn't
Rau didnt
Bey didn't

I'm not sure who else has wrestled. But 3 is a lot out of 9 I mean 30% is statistically high but tis the draw 

There is also only 8 spots to draw into. Add in that very few of our people are seeded, I don't think it's anything crazy yet. 

[Le duke]

I feel like Myles Amine draws into a pretty decent shot at a Bronze at every Worlds or Olympics.

 

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

43 minutes ago, Spladle08 said:

Type them out. 
I mean Amit did. 
Coon did. 
Brooks will. 

Who else has wrestled. 
Spicey Lee won't
Sarah didn't 
Dommy didnt. 
Jacobsen didn't
Rau didnt
Bey didn't

I'm not sure who else has wrestled. But 3 is a lot out of 9 I mean 30% is statistically high but tis the draw 

Does any other country have a number approaching 30%?

[Spladle08]

Just now, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Does any other country have a number approaching 30%?

I don't know, look through the brackets. It's not a great number at all, maybe 0 would be better, but I don't think it changed the results for Amit or Coon so far. Do you?

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

6 out of 7 US wrestlers drew a World Champ as their first round matchup.

Edited August 7 by Jimmy Cinnabon

[Spladle08]

Just now, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

6 out of 7 US wrestlers drew a World Champ as their first round matchup.

A number of world champs at each weight and a lot of those world champs have seeds. 
When you have to be "drawn-in" you kind of lose your argument about getting a solid opponent. 
Earn some ranking series points and get a spot. 

Again, do you think it changed the results for Coon or Elor, drawing the 1. 
We simply aren't seeded so we have to wrestle a seed right off the bat, 1-8 

[lu1979]

Brooks drawing the #1 seed is the best gift we could have asked for. He is opposite side from Yazdani, Amine & Kurugliev.  The Kazak is tough but he is the type of guy you have to beat if you want to be an Olympic medalist.  I am very happy  where Aaron and Spencer landed in the brackets.

[Spladle08]

2 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

Brooks drawing the #1 seed is the best gift we could have asked for. He is opposite side from Yazdani, Amine & Kurugliev.  The Kazak is tough but he is the type of guy you have to beat if you want to be an Olympic medalist.  I am very happy  where Aaron and Spencer landed in the brackets.

I think social media has just be rife with "we got a raw deal" talk, without any substance backing it up. 
So it just gets repeated 

[Dogbone]

The only US wrestler who I thought got a bad draw was Coon as he might of medaled with a decent draw.

Bey was the very last wrestler in.  Tough to complain about any draw he got.

Yes, US has been unlucky but after the draw that Sara is getting, I don't think we can complain.  No other draw would of allowed her to avoid Susaki.  Hopefully she can win gold!!  

Dom was unlucky but with the size of the bracket, she could be 1 repachage win away from going for bronze. 

Ideally a better draw might of allowed us to win 1 Greco match.   I'll take unfortunate circumstances and luck that might allow us to bring home another gold (go Sara!) over slightly better Greco draws. 

 

[bnwtwg]

The draws are genuinely tough. Even by Olympic standards.

Coon and Elor and Parrish and Bey drew the returning champ round 1.

Rau drew returning bronze/ 1x champ/4x medalist.

Brooks drew 2x consecutive returning bronze.

Hildebrandt and Lee have the most favorable draws so far.

[bnwtwg]

1 minute ago, Dogbone said:

The only US wrestler who I thought got a bad draw was Coon as he might of medaled with a decent draw.

Bey was the very last wrestler in.  Tough to complain about any draw he got.

Yes, US has been unlucky but after the draw that Sara is getting, I don't think we can complain.  No other draw would of allowed her to avoid Susaki.  Hopefully she can win gold!!  

Dom was unlucky but with the size of the bracket, she could be 1 repachage win away from going for bronze. 

Ideally a better draw might of allowed us to win 1 Greco match.   I'll take unfortunate circumstances and luck that might allow us to bring home another gold (go Sara!) over slightly better Greco draws. 

 

I would trade six Greco qualifiers if it means better WFS draws six days a week and twice on Sunday.

[Wrestleknownothing]

35 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

6 out of 7 US wrestlers drew a World Champ as their first round matchup.

Every one of our wrestlers has to wrestle an Olympic qualifier in EVERY round. It's a bunch of bull. There should be an investigation.

[denger]

5 minutes ago, Dogbone said:

The only US wrestler who I thought got a bad draw was Coon as he might of medaled with a decent draw.

Bey was the very last wrestler in.  Tough to complain about any draw he got.

Yes, US has been unlucky but after the draw that Sara is getting, I don't think we can complain.  No other draw would of allowed her to avoid Susaki.  Hopefully she can win gold!!  

Dom was unlucky but with the size of the bracket, she could be 1 repachage win away from going for bronze. 

Ideally a better draw might of allowed us to win 1 Greco match.   I'll take unfortunate circumstances and luck that might allow us to bring home another gold (go Sara!) over slightly better Greco draws. 

 

I agree with you, just to expand on what you already said:

Coon's bad luck was where unseeded Lopez landed. He had the most improbable quarter of his bracket, and after seeing that Lopez was still in top form, it'd be fair to say that Coon had the worst draw of the tournament. 

I don't think we can complain about any of the Greco guys, otherwise. It's hard to even complain about Coon - none of the greco guys were sniffing a seed. 

Sarah earned her 6th seed. And she earned hard-fought wins over the 3rd and 2nd seeds, avenging a couple tough losses to the Mongolian. I like her chances to win Gold!

Dom drew a shitty day one, but yeah, that could have been worse.

Also, Amit WAS the misfortune of everyone else in her bracket - especially for the number one seed! Damn, she'd gone out and earned that top seed only to draw Amit first round. It's not as mean as Lopez showing up and toppling the Iranian, but a similar situation of what could have been the Gold Medal Match in the qualification rounds. 

 

[TylerDurden]

Brooks is the bad draw.

 

Did I do that right? 

[Spladle08]

1 minute ago, TylerDurden said:

Brooks is the bad draw.

 

Did I do that right? 

You did it really well

[ionel]

52 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Every one of our wrestlers has to wrestle an Olympic qualifier in EVERY round. It's a bunch of bull. There should be an investigation.

Makes you wonder if the same guy drew up Olympic brackets as does the NCAA every year giving all the bad draws to Iowa.  

[oldschool]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Every one of our wrestlers has to wrestle an Olympic qualifier in EVERY round. It's a bunch of bull. There should be an investigation.

just wanted to highlight this. every once in awhile there's gems in these forums 

[cowcards]

1 hour ago, bnwtwg said:

The draws are genuinely tough. Even by Olympic standards.

Coon and Elor and Parrish and Bey drew the returning champ round 1.

Rau drew returning bronze/ 1x champ/4x medalist.

Brooks drew 2x consecutive returning bronze.

Hildebrandt and Lee have the most favorable draws so far.

How many people in each bracket are a world champ at some point and also seeded to be drawn into? If you can provide the numbers for each so we can see the probability, that would be great. I don’t have time to look it up. 

[bnwtwg]

47 minutes ago, cowcards said:

How many people in each bracket are a world champ at some point and also seeded to be drawn into? If you can provide the numbers for each so we can see the probability, that would be great. I don’t have time to look it up. 

Well I may be wrong but some quick napkin math tells me there can be up to 3 returning world champs per weight (one  UWW weight below, oly weight, up a UWW weight).

Weights with defending champs, oly weight listed first. Cut down in bold and bump up italicized

On paper, the toughest weight and only with three defending champs was WFS 68kg and we saw what the wrecking ball known as Amit Elor did to that bracket. Overall, only three brackets have multiple defending champs and two do not have a defending champ (both MFS).

So as of today, out of 5 champs across 9 weights (excluding Elor obviously) the US has drawn into 4 defending. 45% of matches were against the best in the business right off the bat. If that's not the textbook definition of "tough draw" then I don't know what is, short of being Elor and being literally the best in the world yourself.

MFS

57 Micic (57, withdrew)

65 Musukaev (65), Retherford (70)

74 None

86 None

97 Tazhudinov (97)

125 Zare (125)

WFS

50 Susaki (50)

53 Fujinami (53)

57 Sakurai (57)

62 Tynybekova (62)

68 Tosun (68), Ozaki (65), Elor (72)

76 Kagami

 

GR

60 Sharshenbekov (60)

67 Orta (67)

77 Makhmudov (77)

87 Cengeiz and Losonczi (87 double champs), Huseynov (82)

97 Rosillo (97)

130 Mirzazadeh

 

[alex1fly]

2 hours ago, Spladle08 said:

I think social media has just be rife with "we got a raw deal" talk, without any substance backing it up. 
So it just gets repeated 

Every Jimmy thread is a regurgitation of some narrative from social media & Flo so no surprise here lol