Penn State average finish before & with Cael?

[AgaveMaria]

I know Cael brought nearly instant success to a program that had last won an NCAA title in 1953.

His first year was decent - with redshirts getting used to the place. The second year they won it all and surprised most everyone. Before he took over they weren't lousy, but weren't going to win the Big Dance either. Then he came and didn't just bring in guys - he brought in a whole new attitude and worked with what was there as well as his new recruits.

Before Cael for a decade or maybe more what was the average finish for Penn State.

[Hammerlock3]

little known fact, sunderland actually won 6 of previous 8 team titles

[AgaveMaria]

2 hours ago, Hammerlock3 said:

little known fact, sunderland actually won 6 of previous 8 team titles

If Penn State had won only one NCAA team title before Cael... the guy must have been a miracle man.

[fishbane]

Sunderland coached PSU for 11 years and had an overall record of 115-90-2.  This is the worst record of any PSU coach except for Paul Campbell who coached for 4 years during WWII.  Sunderland's best dual season was 2005-2006 when PSU was 13-4 and his worst was 2001-2002 when they were 6-12.  

Sunderland's best Big Ten tournament finish was 3rd, which he accomplished twice, and his average finish was 5.2.  His worst finish was 10th in 2001.  He coached 7 individual Big Ten champs.

His best NCAA finish was 3rd in 2008, though his highest point total was 78.5 in his first season 1999 when PSU was 4th.  Their average placement during his tenure was 14.6.  They were in the top 5 2x, top 10 4x, top 25 10x.  The only season they finished outside the top 25 was in 2002 (35th).  Sunderland coached 27 AAs or about 2.45 per year.  His best was 4AAs in 1999, 2003, and 2008.  His worst was 0 in 2001.  He coached 3 individual national champs (Pritzlaff 1999, Hunter 2001, and Davis 2008).

PSU's performance under Sunderland was below their historical averages.  His immediate predecessor, John Fritz, was the only PSU coach in the Big Ten era other than Sunderland and Sanderson.  Fritz's record was 87-33-2 over 6 seasons with his best season being 22-0-1 in 1993 which was PSU's first season in the Big Ten.  His worst was 5-12 in 1995.

Under Fritz PSU was 2nd in the Big Ten 3x (1993, 1996, and 1998).  His average finish was 3.17 and his worst was 6th in 1995.  He coached 12 individual Big Ten champions which is 2/year on average.  His team's best performance was 3 in both 1993 and 1994.  The closest he came too a Big Ten tournament title was in 1993 when PSU scored 123.5 team points only 4.5 behind Iowa.

At NCAAs Fritz's teams finished in the top 10 all 6 seasons and the top 5 all but one.  Their best finish was 2nd in 1993.  Their worst was 10th in 1995.  Their average finish was 3.83.  Fritz coached 21 AAs or 3.5/season.  He had 5 AAs in both 1993 and 1998.  The fewest AAs PSU had under Fritz was 1 in 1997.  Three wrestlers won individual NCAA titles under Fritz - McCoy 2x, Hughes, and Abe.

[jammen]

Lorenzo, Sunderland and Fritz placed at National Duals 17 times with two titles over a 20 year span, an event that Cael single-handedly destroyed.

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, jammen said:

Lorenzo, Sunderland and Fritz placed at National Duals 17 times with two titles over a 20 year span, an event that Cael single-handedly destroyed.

[11986]

looking at all that, hard to believe Sunderland lasted as long as he did. 

how many other Pa team placed ahead of them at NCAAs those years? I'm sure Lehigh and Edinboro did a number of times. 

[fishbane]

1 hour ago, 11986 said:

looking at all that, hard to believe Sunderland lasted as long as he did. 

how many other Pa team placed ahead of them at NCAAs those years? I'm sure Lehigh and Edinboro did a number of times. 

Sunderland's record was worse than Lorenzo, Fritz, and Sanderson but it was somewhat comparable to Koll at least at NCAAs.  Koll had a much better dual record.  

Sunderland produced the same number of national champs in 3 fewer seasons than Koll.  Sunderland also had 27 AAs in 11 seasons vs 20 in 14 for Koll.  in Koll's era there were only 6AAs/weight vs 8AA/weight in Sunderland's.  Still as a percent of available AA placements Sunderland's total was higher. Another consideration in this comparison is that not all wrestlers received a consolation berth when Koll coached which would depress his totals.  Comparing their team placements which controls these rule differences it's still close.  Koll's teams had a medial NCAA placement of 12.5.  Sunderland is slightly better at 12.  The top performances also slightly favor Sunderland.  PSU's 3rd place finish in 2008 was better than any under Koll and Sunderland also produced 4 AAs 3 separate times and PSU never had more than 3 AAs in a season under Koll.  

Clarion, ESU, Lehigh, Lock Haven, Pitt, and Temple finished ahead of PSU at NCAAs during Koll's tenure.  Lehigh, Penn, Edinboro, and  Lock Haven, finished ahead of PSU at NCAAs and Pitt tied with PSU one year under Sunderland.

[nhs67]

32 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Sunderland's record was worse than Lorenzo, Fritz, and Sanderson but it was somewhat comparable to Koll at least at NCAAs.  Koll had a much better dual record.  

Sunderland produced the same number of national champs in 3 fewer seasons than Koll.  Sunderland also had 27 AAs in 11 seasons vs 20 in 14 for Koll.  in Koll's era there were only 6AAs/weight vs 8AA/weight in Sunderland's.  Still as a percent of available AA placements Sunderland's total was higher. Another consideration in this comparison is that not all wrestlers received a consolation berth when Koll coached which would depress his totals.  Comparing their team placements which controls these rule differences it's still close.  Koll's teams had a medial NCAA placement of 12.5.  Sunderland is slightly better at 12.  The top performances also slightly favor Sunderland.  PSU's 3rd place finish in 2008 was better than any under Koll and Sunderland also produced 4 AAs 3 separate times and PSU never had more than 3 AAs in a season under Koll.  

Clarion, ESU, Lehigh, Lock Haven, Pitt, and Temple finished ahead of PSU at NCAAs during Koll's tenure.  Lehigh, Penn, Edinboro, and  Lock Haven, finished ahead of PSU at NCAAs and Pitt tied with PSU one year under Sunderland.

You should do mean and median in each.

Also, median is the middle value when a data set is ordered from least to greatest, is it not? If there is 3, 4, 6, 6, 8, 12, and 23 (random numbers) the median is 6.  Median cannot be 21.1, for example, when all point totals end in 0.0 or 0.5, correct?

Your National Champ number(s) seem a bit off, though.  Are we not counting the three titles Koll won there as a competitor (joke:haha)?

[fishbane]

1 minute ago, nhs67 said:

Also, median is the middle value when a data set is ordered from least to greatest, is it not? If there is 3, 4, 6, 6, 8, 12, and 23 (random numbers) the median is 6.  Median cannot be 21.1, for example, when all point totals end in 0.0 or 0.5, correct?

Yes the median is the middle value.  If there are an odd number of values this is the one in the middle.  If there is an even number of values then it is the mean of the two middle values.  Koll coached for 14 years which is an even number.  The middle values are 19.25 and 23 points.  Up until sometime in the 1990s it was possible to earn 1/4 of a point at NCAAs. A fall was 1 bonus, a TF was 0.75, and a major was 0.5 at some point. The average of these two is 21.125 or displayed to 0.1 precision 21.1.

24 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

You should do mean and median in each.

I kind of disagree on the merits of using the mean for NCAA placement, which was the only stat where I omitted it. Often, and especially for lower point totals, a difference of a few points can mean several places.  Coaches don't coach that many years so a single off year can move the placement mean more significantly than the points. For Sunderland his mean placement was 14.6 and for Koll it was 13.6.  Over 2 points is added to Sunderland's average by a single year, 2002, when they finished 35th.  

I omitted median from both AA and individual national champs.  In the case of champs it was useless - they are both 0.  For AAs it didn't seem that useful either.  For Koll it's 1.5 and for Sunderland it is 2.  I think the mean is more useful here too.

24 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Your National Champ number(s) seem a bit off, though.  Are we not counting the three titles Koll won there as a competitor (joke:haha)?

I was consistent here.  I also didn't count Sunderland's AA placements in his totals either.

[nhs67]

20 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Yes the median is the middle value.  If there are an odd number of values this is the one in the middle.  If there is an even number of values then it is the mean of the two middle values.  Koll coached for 14 years which is an even number.  The middle values are 19.25 and 23 points.  Up until sometime in the 1990s it was possible to earn 1/4 of a point at NCAAs. A fall was 1 bonus, a TF was 0.75, and a major was 0.5 at some point. The average of these two is 21.125 or displayed to 0.1 precision 21.1.

I kind of disagree on the merits of using the mean for NCAA placement, which was the only stat where I omitted it. Often, and especially for lower point totals, a difference of a few points can mean several places.  Coaches don't coach that many years so a single off year can move the placement mean more significantly than the points. For Sunderland his mean placement was 14.6 and for Koll it was 13.6.  Over 2 points is added to Sunderland's average by a single year, 2002, when they finished 35th.  

I omitted median from both AA and individual national champs.  In the case of champs it was useless - they are both 0.  For AAs it didn't seem that useful either.  For Koll it's 1.5 and for Sunderland it is 2.  I think the mean is more useful here too.

I was consistent here.  I also didn't count Sunderland's AA placements in his totals either.

Thank you for the feedback.

Appreciate all the numbers, my man.  Now that I can wrap my brain around the reasoning(s), it makes a considerable amount better sense.

[Lleynor]

Let's be real. Cael at PSU was the perfect storm. In today's Wrestling world, what he's doing is insane. How many schools have Blue Chip-prospects waiting on their turn? Legendary status for him. 

[scourge165]

On 6/26/2024 at 3:23 PM, Lleynor said:

Let's be real. Cael at PSU was the perfect storm. In today's Wrestling world, what he's doing is insane. How many schools have Blue Chip-prospects waiting on their turn? Legendary status for him. 

I was just talking to an Iowa guy about PSU this past weekend at a party. He was arguing Iowa's recruiting is underrated and better than PSU...and then pointed to Angelo Ferrari. 

Now...the kid is a great recruit, but I had to point out how PSU is the only school that can have two guys who are the favorites to win a title next year most likely, Haines/Messenbrink, probably flipping weights and both have 3 years left(assuming Haines takes a RS). A kid in Facundo who beat him, Several other elite recruits coming in, but just PJ Duke and Henkel, the #1 P4P and the #8 P4P coming in at those weights because they want the best competition. 

There are a dozen other examples, just stacking ridiculous depth at weights with underclassmen, but damn, it's just impressive. 

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

43 minutes ago, scourge165 said:

I was just talking to an Iowa guy about PSU this past weekend at a party. He was arguing Iowa's recruiting is underrated and better than PSU...and then pointed to Angelo Ferrari. 

Now...the kid is a great recruit, but I had to point out how PSU is the only school that can have two guys who are the favorites to win a title next year most likely, Haines/Messenbrink, probably flipping weights and both have 3 years left(assuming Haines takes a RS). A kid in Facundo who beat him, Several other elite recruits coming in, but just PJ Duke and Henkel, the #1 P4P and the #8 P4P coming in at those weights because they want the best competition. 

There are a dozen other examples, just stacking ridiculous depth at weights with underclassmen, but damn, it's just impressive. 

He’s actually right. Cael just does a better job coaching up the elite recruits. Tom grinds them down to the bone. 

[scourge165]

On 7/2/2024 at 4:36 AM, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

He’s actually right. Cael just does a better job coaching up the elite recruits. Tom grinds them down to the bone. 

No. He's not actually right. He's actually wrong. PSU is recruiting better than anyone else. 

[1032004]

On 7/2/2024 at 4:53 AM, scourge165 said:

I was just talking to an Iowa guy about PSU this past weekend at a party. He was arguing Iowa's recruiting is underrated and better than PSU...and then pointed to Angelo Ferrari. 

Now...the kid is a great recruit, but I had to point out how PSU is the only school that can have two guys who are the favorites to win a title next year most likely, Haines/Messenbrink, probably flipping weights and both have 3 years left(assuming Haines takes a RS). A kid in Facundo who beat him, Several other elite recruits coming in, but just PJ Duke and Henkel, the #1 P4P and the #8 P4P coming in at those weights because they want the best competition. 

There are a dozen other examples, just stacking ridiculous depth at weights with underclassmen, but damn, it's just impressive. 

Haines has 2 years left

Edited July 5 by 1032004

[scourge165]

On 7/5/2024 at 4:26 AM, 1032004 said:

Haines has 2 years left

Quote

(assuming Haines takes a RS)

 

[1032004]

1 minute ago, scourge165 said:

 

Gotcha, I was assuming you meant competition years

[scourge165]

Just now, 1032004 said:

Gotcha, I was assuming you meant competition years

No...just saying how long those couple weights seem to be locked up. If Haines took a RS and went to '74 and Facundo wrestled this year, I still don't see how you fit all these kids in there. SVN, Kasak(who seems more likely to end up at '57/'65 than down to '41 after a RS year as has been speculated...though that was a while back). Meesenbrink, then Cunningham is a guy people tend to gloss over with Duke and Henkel.

Just an incredible job of picking the right kids and these kids with the supreme confidence to believe they'll earn a spot. If you were a '74/'84, are you picking Iowa right now? Arnold and Angelo?

I'm not a PSU fan beyond just being a fan of the sport and respecting what they're doing, but I'm curious how they get all these kids to come there. 

Didn't even mention Barr...who may be an '84 with Ryder and the Mirasola brothers. 

If they get a couple teammates from Bishop McCort, man, would that be a fun lineup to watch in a couple of years. Maybe a HWT from Iowa in that same class?