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57 and 65 Oly Qualification


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So in the world of USA MFS wrestling, 57 and 65 still have yet to qualify and that will be done at the last chance qualifer a few weeks after the Oly Trials. 

What are the chances here for us?   I have heard that the competition will be tougher than Pan Am qualifier but I find that tough to understand.   We had some NCAA ringers there at the Pan Ams and it was actually tougher than the Pan Am Championships the week before.   Who else could be there to disrupt us from making it to the Olys in these weights?   I'm not arguing that there is good competition, that's why I'm asking. 

mspart

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NCAA ringers?

At 57kg, I like Darian Cruz a lot and I'm happy he's an Olympian.  But in freestyle, he's not a ringer.  He really doesn't have any international accomplishments of note.  He's never come close to making a US team, and for PR, he's never come close to medaling at Worlds.  RBY was a legit obstacle, but he was on the opposite bracket.

At 65kg, I like Austin Gomez a lot.  But in senior-level freestyle, he's no ringer either.  Dangerous, but erratic, and has never been medal threat (tho maybe he is now).  I wouldn't call Lachlan McNeil a ringer.  The Cuban has medaled, but not recently, and he's pushing 40.  The Argentinean is a tough out too, but never close to medaling.

Nick Lee was definitely the favorite here, as was Zane at 57kg (or at least co-favorite with RBY).  There's a reason these NCAA guys aren't pushing for a spot on the US team:  they know its a longshot. (Well, maybe not RBY.)

At Last Chance, there is *always* a bunch of medalists from other countries.  And it tends to be a much bigger bracket too.  Its nasty.  We won't know until all the qualifiers are done, but Jon Kozak tweeted the other day that at 65kg, Tulga Tumur-Ochir, Haji Aliyev, Islam Dudaev, Bajrang Punia and Kotaro Kiyooka hadn't qualified.  I'm not sure if the US has *ever* pushed someone through at this tournament.  

It's hard to overstate how heartbreaking the Pan Am result was. 

Edited by BAC
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I guess ringer is relative.   Without NCAA folks in the Pan Ams Qualifier, we should have qualified the two weights.   Hence they are ringers that upset the apple cart.   Clumsy perhaps, but will there be serious competition at the last chance qualifier?

mspart

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5 minutes ago, mspart said:

I guess ringer is relative.   Without NCAA folks in the Pan Ams Qualifier, we should have qualified the two weights.   Hence they are ringers that upset the apple cart.   Clumsy perhaps, but will there be serious competition at the last chance qualifier?

mspart

For comparison, here's an article talking about Jordan Oliver's draw at this tournament to qualify the US at 65kg in 2021.

https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/7022343-breaking-down-jordan-olivers-insane-last-chance-draw

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1 hour ago, BAC said:

NCAA ringers?

At 57kg, I like Darian Cruz a lot and I'm happy he's an Olympian.  But in freestyle, he's not a ringer.  He really doesn't have any international accomplishments of note.  He's never come close to making a US team, and for PR, he's never come close to medaling at Worlds.  RBY was a legit obstacle, but he was on the opposite bracket.

At 65kg, I like Austin Gomez a lot.  But in senior-level freestyle, he's no ringer either.  Dangerous, but erratic, and has never been medal threat (tho maybe he is now).  I wouldn't call Lachlan McNeil a ringer.  The Cuban has medaled, but not recently, and he's pushing 40.  The Argentinean is a tough out too, but never close to medaling.

Nick Lee was definitely the favorite here, as was Zane at 57kg (or at least co-favorite with RBY).  There's a reason these NCAA guys aren't pushing for a spot on the US team:  they know its a longshot. (Well, maybe not RBY.)

At Last Chance, there is *always* a bunch of medalists from other countries.  And it tends to be a much bigger bracket too.  Its nasty.  We won't know until all the qualifiers are done, but Jon Kozak tweeted the other day that at 65kg, Tulga Tumur-Ochir, Haji Aliyev, Islam Dudaev, Bajrang Punia and Kotaro Kiyooka hadn't qualified.  I'm not sure if the US has *ever* pushed someone through at this tournament.  

It's hard to overstate how heartbreaking the Pan Am result was. 

Cox, Thielke, Augello, and Maroulis all did back in 2016. No one did in 2021.

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2 hours ago, BAC said:

NCAA ringers?

At 57kg, I like Darian Cruz a lot and I'm happy he's an Olympian.  But in freestyle, he's not a ringer.  He really doesn't have any international accomplishments of note.  He's never come close to making a US team, and for PR, he's never come close to medaling at Worlds.  RBY was a legit obstacle, but he was on the opposite bracket.

At 65kg, I like Austin Gomez a lot.  But in senior-level freestyle, he's no ringer either.  Dangerous, but erratic, and has never been medal threat (tho maybe he is now).  I wouldn't call Lachlan McNeil a ringer.  The Cuban has medaled, but not recently, and he's pushing 40.  The Argentinean is a tough out too, but never close to medaling.

Nick Lee was definitely the favorite here, as was Zane at 57kg (or at least co-favorite with RBY).  There's a reason these NCAA guys aren't pushing for a spot on the US team:  they know its a longshot. (Well, maybe not RBY.)

At Last Chance, there is *always* a bunch of medalists from other countries.  And it tends to be a much bigger bracket too.  Its nasty.  We won't know until all the qualifiers are done, but Jon Kozak tweeted the other day that at 65kg, Tulga Tumur-Ochir, Haji Aliyev, Islam Dudaev, Bajrang Punia and Kotaro Kiyooka hadn't qualified.  I'm not sure if the US has *ever* pushed someone through at this tournament.  

It's hard to overstate how heartbreaking the Pan Am result was. 

Didn't Molinaro qualify for Olympics this way?

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44 minutes ago, SocraTease said:

Didn't Molinaro qualify for Olympics this way?

Nope. Got in via 2 others getting kicked out for drug offenses. But he did finish 3rd to put him in line when they did. 

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65kg is the big question mark. There will undoubtedly be 2-3 wrestlers in the bracket we will not be favored to beat. (Obviously we have talent and can beat just about anyone who hasn't qualified on any given day) 65kg will be really really really draw dependent. And if its not Zain (Save for Destribats), I feel like everyone at the weight has a head-scratcher of a close match each time out. If it comes to qualifying the weight. Despite his previous fiasco. I like him to do it. We'll see who the rep is and hold our breath. 

57kg the weight seems deeper than it is. Micic, Japan (probably Higuchi), Hartutyunyan, Abakarov, Uguev, are all qualified. You should see 4 of Iran, Kaz, India, China, Mongolia, Uzbek which are clearly the biggest hurdles, and catching one or 2 of them with a bad draw, could be our undoing. They all have very competent reps. But I feel like we have some of the top guys in the world with a shot at world finalist on the right day . So I would favor us against anyone, but obviously we can lose. 

65kg to qualify I'll say 35%

57kg to qualify give me 65%

 

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On 3/6/2024 at 5:31 PM, BAC said:

 

At Last Chance, there is *always* a bunch of medalists from other countries.  And it tends to be a much bigger bracket too.  Its nasty.  We won't know until all the qualifiers are done, but Jon Kozak tweeted the other day that at 65kg, Tulga Tumur-Ochir, Haji Aliyev, Islam Dudaev, Bajrang Punia and Kotaro Kiyooka hadn't qualified.  I'm not sure if the US has *ever* pushed someone through at this tournament.  

It's hard to overstate how heartbreaking the Pan Am result was. 

That list of guys at 65kg who haven't qualified is scary but the European and Asian Olympic Qualifiers are not until early April.  There will be 4 top guys qualifying in those tournaments who  will not be at the last chance qualifier. I agree with your point that the last chance qualifier is tougher than the Pan Ams Q but our Olympic rep will be there and if he will have his shot to qualify the weight. Hope they both get it done.

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On 3/8/2024 at 8:45 AM, Spladle08 said:

65kg is the big question mark. There will undoubtedly be 2-3 wrestlers in the bracket we will not be favored to beat. (Obviously we have talent and can beat just about anyone who hasn't qualified on any given day) 65kg will be really really really draw dependent. And if its not Zain (Save for Destribats), I feel like everyone at the weight has a head-scratcher of a close match each time out. If it comes to qualifying the weight. Despite his previous fiasco. I like him to do it. We'll see who the rep is and hold our breath. 

57kg the weight seems deeper than it is. Micic, Japan (probably Higuchi), Hartutyunyan, Abakarov, Uguev, are all qualified. You should see 4 of Iran, Kaz, India, China, Mongolia, Uzbek which are clearly the biggest hurdles, and catching one or 2 of them with a bad draw, could be our undoing. They all have very competent reps. But I feel like we have some of the top guys in the world with a shot at world finalist on the right day . So I would favor us against anyone, but obviously we can lose. 

65kg to qualify I'll say 35%

57kg to qualify give me 65%

 

why the qualifier for zane?

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Just now, Ched64 said:

why the qualifier for zane?

sorry zain…i never have met a zane or zain…very wrestling specific other than zane grey the great writer of the old west

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30 minutes ago, Ched64 said:

sorry zain…i never have met a zane or zain…very wrestling specific other than zane grey the great writer of the old west

Why do I like Retherford as the most "dependable" to qualify the weight? Is that what you're asking? 
I mean we will send whoever is the rep, but I would have the most confidence in him. I think he's always been pretty consistent, but these last couple years, I think he's turned a corner. 
Not wrestling close matches, getting separation, beating the best 70kg guys. I just think he has the best shot.

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10 hours ago, Spladle08 said:

Why do I like Retherford as the most "dependable" to qualify the weight? Is that what you're asking? 
I mean we will send whoever is the rep, but I would have the most confidence in him. I think he's always been pretty consistent, but these last couple years, I think he's turned a corner. 
Not wrestling close matches, getting separation, beating the best 70kg guys. I just think he has the best shot.

Easy answer for Retherford is that he has beaten Johnny D every time when it actually matters and he has won two straight Worlds medals the last two years - the last of which being a Gold.

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"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

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44 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Easy answer for Retherford is that he has beaten Johnny D every time when it actually matters and he has won two straight Worlds medals the last two years - the last of which being a Gold.

While yes to the first part, his medals come at a non oly weight and the weight cut seems to do a number on him. Has he ever beaten anyone of note at 65kg outside of Yianni? It's like the penn state guys at 65kg train to just take out Yianni then can't string together a qualifying tournament for their life...
 

whoever is our rep I'll be praying to the wrestling gods we squeak in. It's wild guys like Haji, Bajrang, Ochir haven't yet qualified. So true that the bracket draw will be monumental for our potential success or demise.

Edited by Doublehalf
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1 hour ago, Doublehalf said:

While yes to the first part, his medals come at a non oly weight and the weight cut seems to do a number on him. Has he ever beaten anyone of note at 65kg outside of Yianni? It's like the penn state guys at 65kg train to just take out Yianni then can't string together a qualifying tournament for their life...
 

whoever is our rep I'll be praying to the wrestling gods we squeak in. It's wild guys like Haji, Bajrang, Ochir haven't yet qualified. So true that the bracket draw will be monumental for our potential success or demise.

Bajie isn't looking like he will be the rep for India at this point.  Pretty sure youth has overtaken him and India has some great young wrestlers to boot.

As far as beating guys at 65 KG, honestly?  No.  Not really.  His best wins are domestic.  He falls in to that Metcalf role at 65 KG (143.3lbs) where they were big, solid 149lbers in college who relied on a tank and physicality.  When it came to the international stage they would/did rely on the same things and would win their first match via gassing them out, then gas out their second (or third) opponent who would often lose the following match because they gassed early due to their match against Metcalf/Nolf.

At 70 KG Retherford has gas for days and days and it is obvious that it is due to the weight management of 70 KG compared to 65 KG.

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"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

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2 hours ago, nhs67 said:

Bajie isn't looking like he will be the rep for India at this point.  Pretty sure youth has overtaken him and India has some great young wrestlers to boot.

Is Baji still training? I couldn't tell if he quit after Singh took over their federation

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On 3/8/2024 at 8:45 AM, Spladle08 said:

65kg is the big question mark. There will undoubtedly be 2-3 wrestlers in the bracket we will not be favored to beat. (Obviously we have talent and can beat just about anyone who hasn't qualified on any given day) 65kg will be really really really draw dependent. And if its not Zain (Save for Destribats), I feel like everyone at the weight has a head-scratcher of a close match each time out. If it comes to qualifying the weight. Despite his previous fiasco. I like him to do it. We'll see who the rep is and hold our breath. 

57kg the weight seems deeper than it is. Micic, Japan (probably Higuchi), Hartutyunyan, Abakarov, Uguev, are all qualified. You should see 4 of Iran, Kaz, India, China, Mongolia, Uzbek which are clearly the biggest hurdles, and catching one or 2 of them with a bad draw, could be our undoing. They all have very competent reps. But I feel like we have some of the top guys in the world with a shot at world finalist on the right day . So I would favor us against anyone, but obviously we can lose. 

65kg to qualify I'll say 35%

57kg to qualify give me 65%

 

taking zain out of the equation just because its so up in the air what weight he goes (if he wins the spot im super confident he will qualify the weight) ill be rooting for Yianni or Alirez. Simply because I think both guys have solid international pedigree. I know its a small sample but Alirez teching Haji alyev and then beating bartlett with relative ease at senior nats gives me pretty high confidence in him if he were also to beat some combination of lee,Yianni,Mckenna. I also really like how alirez wrestles he can transition to a lace effortlessly and he wrestles super clean which allows him to avoid giving up chained points. And then of course Yianni has the world silver and wins over bajarang and tevanyan among others. 

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21 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

Is Baji still training? I couldn't tell if he quit after Singh took over their federation

I mean... he might not be training, but he did compete for the spot a few weeks ago and lost.  Pretty badly, at that...

 

"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

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