Why does Flo hate Rocky Elam?

[Tigerfan]

Elam is the returning 3rd placer  AT 197 and undefeated. Ok, I get Brooks. I get Buchanan, since he beat Rocky at NCAA’s twice in 2022. Hidlay has a comparable resume AT 184, and against common opponents (8-1 vs 9-1), but has never beat Elam. (Wrestlestat predicts an Elam win, btw) Elam has split with Sloan and beat Smith at last NCAA’s. He’s 14-4 vs Smith’s 7-7 against common opponents. Little isn’t even worth the comparison. 
 

Rankings are no big deal of course, but I couldn’t help but note that Smith, Little, and Sloan have losses THIS year. Sloan is the only one who started higher ranked than Elam(which I note he still is, despite losing to Smith). 
 

Dude has finished 5,4,3 and was Jr World Champ, and yet he’s ranked behind 6 guys, only 2  of which have ever beaten Elam or someone Elam lost to. He must be the most disrespected wrestler in the country right now. 

[Hammerlock3]

because they don't realize that rankings are supposed to reflect passed results and not predict future ones. and they need to maintain that state because pyles isn't gonna make a meaningfully bold prediction ever, because he's trying to maintain the illusion that he's an expert. 

[JimmyBT]

29 minutes ago, Tigerfan said:

Elam is the returning 3rd placer  AT 197 and undefeated. Ok, I get Brooks. I get Buchanan, since he beat Rocky at NCAA’s twice in 2022. Hidlay has a comparable resume AT 184, and against common opponents (8-1 vs 9-1), but has never beat Elam. (Wrestlestat predicts an Elam win, btw) Elam has split with Sloan and beat Smith at last NCAA’s. He’s 14-4 vs Smith’s 7-7 against common opponents. Little isn’t even worth the comparison. 
 

Rankings are no big deal of course, but I couldn’t help but note that Smith, Little, and Sloan have losses THIS year. Sloan is the only one who started higher ranked than Elam(which I note he still is, despite losing to Smith). 
 

Dude has finished 5,4,3 and was Jr World Champ, and yet he’s ranked behind 6 guys, only 2  of which have ever beaten Elam or someone Elam lost to. He must be the most disrespected wrestler in the country right now. 

Maybe it’s because he ducked Buchanan 

[Gus]

It’s because he has not wrestled much this year. He will move up with quality wins this year. 

[nhs67]

Prettt sure Rocky's last loss is Tanner Sloan at NCAA's last year.  Hidlay just won the most difficult in-season tournament in which Sloan failed to earn a spot in the finals.

It seems straightforward.

Add in that his best win since NCAAs is a Decision (4 - 2) on Minnesota's Joles - who Sloan had beaten via Major (11 - 2) six days prior and I don't think there is any reason to be upset?

Edited December 6, 2023 by nhs67

[Husker_Du]

That's an all time bad ranking.

I'm thinking of starting a weekly segment where i discuss rankings moves I like and don't like. 
 

and that's not a knock on flo. i like some of their decisions, and i don't wholly agree with every Intermat decision (although it's considerably less frequent).

maybe i could look at other sets and make a thing of it. 

[Tigerfan]

26 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Prettt sure Rocky's last loss is Tanner Sloan at NCAA's last year.  Hidlay just won the most difficult in-season tournament in which Sloan failed to earn a spot in the finals.

It seems straightforward.

Add in that his best win since NCAAs is a Decision (4 - 2) on Minnesota's Joles - who Sloan had beaten via Major (11 - 2) six days prior and I don't think there is any reason to be upset?

I understand that Sloan had a bad loss. It happens, it’s early. That doesn’t mean whoever beat Sloan should leapfrog not only Sloan, but Elam as well AND the kid who beat that kid does too. Those 2 don’t have nearly the resume Elam has and do not deserve those high rankings. I know Flo uses prior years and overall resume to justify ranking guys who lose higher than those they just lost to, often. Why in this case they think a Fr from Little Rock rates a higher ranking than Elam just because he beat some dude who Elam has also beat. It’s crazy stupid. 

[nhs67]

5 hours ago, Tigerfan said:

I understand that Sloan had a bad loss. It happens, it’s early. That doesn’t mean whoever beat Sloan should leapfrog not only Sloan, but Elam as well AND the kid who beat that kid does too. Those 2 don’t have nearly the resume Elam has and do not deserve those high rankings. I know Flo uses prior years and overall resume to justify ranking guys who lose higher than those they just lost to, often. Why in this case they think a Fr from Little Rock rates a higher ranking than Elam just because he beat some dude who Elam has also beat. It’s crazy stupid. 

I understand what you're saying.  All I was saying is that I see the justification there.

One thing to also consider is that this isn't like the College Football Playoff who is supposed to start from scratch each week to (re)evaluate ever team.  It is a week by week basis.

Let's take Cole Matthews of Pittsburgh, for example.  He basically got a 'bye' for his loss to Koderhandt (Navy).  Miller (Maryland) got more credit for beating him (in the rankings) than Pucino (Illinois) did, though.  Not due to margin of victory, but because once... okay... twice maybe on to something... three times in four match...?  Something's up.  Now if someone beats Matthews it will be "something's up" until proven otherwise and they won't give that wrestler as much credit as an earlier season victory for Koderhandt or Miller.  That is how rankings work and also why they wrestle the match.

Also, yes they look at past results, but recency bias is a factor when two people are evenly matched on paper.

Unortunately, he will have not the opportunity to prove it this year, unless he heads to Midlands or the Scuffle or something to make up matches, as all he has left on his schedule is:

Per Wrestlestat (ranking/projection)...
- #128 Raddon (3W-2L), Wyoming - Tech 18-2
 or
- #22 Novak (6W-4L), Wyoming - Decision 9-2, Novak is a true frosh and expected to, hasn't wrestled his five (5) yet.
- #101 Sund (2W-5L), Air Force - Tech 17-2
- #109 Pettigrew (2W-3L), Illinois - Major 15-2
- #21 Smith (5W-2L), Virginia Tech - Major 11-2
- #19 Stemmet (12W-2L), Stanford - Major 12-3
- #63 Cooley (5W-4L), West Virginia - Major 15-2
- #5 Cardenas (7W-2L), Cornell - Decision 6-3
- #10 Surber (9W-1L), Oklahoma State - Decision 8-4
- #66 Mooberry (5W-3L), North Dakota State - Major 16-2
- #3 Sloan (7W-1L), South Dakota State - Decision 6-5 (LOSS)
- #28 Voelker (7W-2L), Northern Iowa - Decision 8-2
- #30 Broderson (4W-3L), Iowa State - Decision 8-3

Then at Big 12s he has the chance, additionaly (potentially), to see...
- #3 Sloan, South Dakota State
- #7 Buchanan (8W-0L), Oklahoma - Decision 8-3
- #10 Surber, Oklahoma State
- #23 Bockman (9W-4L), Utah Valley - Decision 9-3
- #28 Voelker, Northern Iowa
- #30 Broderson, Iowa State
- #63 Cooley, West Virginia
- #66 Mooberry, North Dakota State
- #96 Cruz (6W-6L), Northern Colorado - Major 16-2
- #101 Sund, Air Force
- #119 Sheeran (3W-4L), Cal Baptist - Major 16-2
- #128 Raddon, Wyoming OR #22 Novak, Wyoming

Keep in mind there might be other factors playing other than the Sloan/Smith/Hidlay comparisons to look in to.  He is 0W-3L in matches that actually count against Buchanan as well - which he conveniently skipped the dual for to go to the... **drumrooooooollll.......** Cougar Clash.  Who did he wrestle there instead?

#29 Joles (8W-2L), Minnesota - Decision 4-2
- Other loss was via 11-2 Major to Sloan
- Best career win(s) are Marylands Jaron (NOT Jaxon) Smith and Oklahoma State's Doucet last season up at Heavyweight.

#36 Nelson (6W-4L), Minnesota - Decision 7-0
- True frosh taking some licks against good competition
- Expected four year starter starting next season
- Lost to teammates Nagel and Joles as well as UNI's Voelker and Elam

#48 Navel (3W-1L), Minnesota - Decision 6-3
- Not the starter for Minny
- Best career win is a 4-2 Decision over teammate Gavin Nelson at the same tournament
- Hasn't wrestled a full seven minute match against anyone in the Top 50 (aside for the aforementioned Nelson)

#148 Mendoza (0W-2L), Little Rock-Arkansas - Pin 2:39
- Not LRA's starter
- Up from 184 this year, 3W-7L as NOT the starter last year at for LRA

As I said... I see what you're saying... I also see it the other way as well.  They are holding that 7-2 Decision loss at NCAAs (which should hold more weight than Cougar's Clash this last weekend should it not?).

I don't see how, until now, Teemer had earned his high ranking.  He didn't deserve it as he had legitimately lost to Lewan his last out.  Now, to me, he has earned that ranking.

I haven't had time to delve through all the rankings, however here are what the other ranking services have for them...

Flowrestling:
#1 - Brooks, Penn State
#2 - Hidlay, NC State
#3 - Buchanan, Oklahoma
#4 - Little, Little Rock-Arkansas
#5 - Smith, Maryland
#6 - Sloan, South Dakota State
#7 - Elam, Missouri

Intermat:
#1 - Brooks, Penn State
#2 - Buchanan, Oklahoma
#3 - Elam, Missouri
#4 - Hidlay, NC State
#5 - Smith, Maryland
#6 - Sloan, South Dakota State
#7 - Cardenas, Cornell
#13 - Little, Little Rock-Arkansas

The Open Mat
#1 - Brooks, Penn State
#2 - Buchanan, Oklahoma
#3 - Elam, Missouri
#4 - Hidlay, NC State
#5 - Beard, Lehigh
#6 - Sloan, South Dakota State
#7 - Cardenas, Cornell
#9 - Smith, Maryland
#10 - Little, Little Rock-Arkansas

The Wrestling Report
#1 - Brooks, Penn State
#2 - Buchanan, Oklahoma
#3 - Hidlay, NC State
#4 - Elam, Missouri
#5 - Little, Little Rock-Arkansas
#6 - Smith, Maryland
#7 - Sloan, South Dakota State

Wrestlestat (RATINGS not RANKINGS)
#1 - Brooks, Penn State
#2 - Hidlay, NC State
#3 - Sloan, South Dakota State
#4 - Beard, Lehigh
#5 - Cardenas, Cornell
#6 - Elam, Missouri
#7 - Buchanan, Oklahoma
#8 - Smith, Maryland
#12 - Little, Little Rock-Arkansas

[nhs67]

Okay, so here is a little bit more of a bit of fun.  I took Intermat, Flowrestling, The Open Mat, The Wrestling Report, and Wrestlestat's rankings (ratings for Wrestlestat, mind you) and compiled the Top 20 from each, giving them reverse order compensation (20 points for 1, 19 for 2, 18 for 3, etc.).  In the Top 20 of all five, only 24 wrestlers are represented and here is what it spit out...

 

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by nhs67

[nhs67]

I wouldn't be surprised had I seen the results after NCAAs and seen it with these placements as of today.  I know they aren't predictions or projections, but more of an earned seed predictor (perhaps?)...

Fun stuffs.

[Wrestleknownothing]

9 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Okay, so here is a little bit more of a bit of fun.  I took Intermat, Flowrestling, The Open Mat, The Wrestling Report, and Wrestlestat's rankings (ratings for Wrestlestat, mind you) and compiled the Top 20 from each, giving them reverse order compensation (20 points for 1, 19 for 2, 18 for 3, etc.).  In the Top 20 of all five, only 24 wrestlers are represented and here is what it spit out...

 

 

The wisdom of crowds

[JimmyBT]

[MPhillips]

1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

here is what it spit out...

Not a graph...

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The wisdom of crowds

[poorwrestler]

Okay, so here is a little bit more of a bit of fun.  I took Intermat, Flowrestling, The Open Mat, The Wrestling Report, and Wrestlestat's rankings (ratings for Wrestlestat, mind you) and compiled the Top 20 from each, giving them reverse order compensation (20 points for 1, 19 for 2, 18 for 3, etc.).  In the Top 20 of all five, only 24 wrestlers are represented and here is what it spit out...
 
 

This isn’t the point of the thread, but I’m impressed by Little Rock’s Stephen Little. That kid is going to be real good over the next four years.


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[ionel]

5 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

Not a graph...

 

MP studied up last night. 

[MPhillips]

Just now, ionel said:

MP studied up last night. 

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The wisdom of crowds

 

[nhs67]

20 minutes ago, poorwrestler said:

This isn’t the point of the thread, but I’m impressed by Little Rock’s Stephen Little. That kid is going to be real good over the next four years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What?

A ) You are not the OP.

B ) In the OP it talks about ranking of Flo VS Common Sense, correct?  How does this not hold value to this thread?

C ) It was fun for me, so if you don't like it you can pound sand - all respects due as they were.

D ) If you take 'C' serious, then that should tell you more about you than me.

E ) I agree.  Little looks pretty damn good.  I don't see that next tier Moxy we see in guys like Elam and Buchanan quite yet, but he might get there by next year.

Edit: I TOTALLY mistook what you said as to what I posted was not related.  My apologies, bud.  Please for give me.

I left what I had put for comedic relief.

Edited December 6, 2023 by nhs67

[poorwrestler]

What?
A ) You are not the OP.

B ) In the OP it talks about ranking of Flo VS Common Sense, correct?  How does this not hold value to this thread?
C ) It was fun for me, so if you don't like it you can pound sand - all respects due as they were.
D ) If you take 'C' serious, then that should tell you more about you than me.
E ) I agree.  Little looks pretty damn good.  I don't see that next tier Moxy we see in guys like Elam and Buchanan quite yet, but he might get there by next year.

I was saying my point about Stephen Little wasn’t the point of the thread, not your rankings aggregation. I think your post added significant value to the Rocky Elam conversation lol


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[nhs67]

4 minutes ago, poorwrestler said:

I was saying my point about Stephen Little wasn’t the point of the thread, not your rankings aggregation. I think your post added significant value to the Rocky Elam conversation lol


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I saw that after... please see my edit, mate.

Sorry, again.

[poorwrestler]

I saw that after... please see my edit, mate.
Sorry, again.

No worries!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MPhillips]

14 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I saw that after...

Eager beaver...

[ionel]

11 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

Eager beaver ...   ...

MP going w ...

... the e is in the portal.  

Edited December 6, 2023 by ionel

[MPhillips]

4 minutes ago, ionel said:

MP going w ...

You're predictable, but I like that about you...

[KCMO2]

18 hours ago, JimmyBT said:

Maybe it’s because he ducked Buchanan 

You're either joking, or clueless.  Maybe both.

[nhs67]

12 minutes ago, KCMO2 said:

You're either joking, or clueless.  Maybe both.

He legitimately went to a tournament with a bunch of backups the next day.

Why not educate @JimmyBTinstead of instantly attacking him?