Jump to content

The Efficient Eight


Wrestleknownothing

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Year? Weight? I demand details.

2001 Hwt.  Don't know why I've gotta do the work for you, maybe I'll get a Christmas present.  😉

PS:  thought this was a standard Illinois History test question, are you a legal resident?  

Edited by ionel
Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, ionel said:

2001 Hwt.  Don't know why I've gotta do the work for you, maybe I'll get a Christmas present.  😉

PS:  thought this was a standard Illinois History test question, are you a legal resident?  

This is even more efficient than I initially realized. He essentially won by winning two coin flips. That is a level of economy of motion I can get behind.

https://dailyillini.com/uncategorized/2010/02/11/illini-of-the-decade-14-john-lockhart/

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

This is even more efficient than I initially realized. He essentially won by winning two coin flips. That is a level of economy of motion I can get behind.

https://dailyillini.com/uncategorized/2010/02/11/illini-of-the-decade-14-john-lockhart/

 

Don't sell him short!  According to the brackets (I was there) it was 3 coin flips:  first round, semi & final, an OT in the second match and a 3-2 decision in the qrts.   Rules were different then. 

 

BTW: maybe you'd like to do the statistical/probability calculations for us on winning 3 out of 3 coin flips and winning 5 matches in a row at NCAA by a total 1 point differential in the regular 5 x 7 minutes?  I might up the quality on the Christmas gift.  

Edited by ionel
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

As anyone who has paid attention to my posts knows, there are a couple of things I hate for their laziness. The generic claims of ducking and stalling. Here we will ignore the former and focus on the latter.

I loooooove @pmilkAfter all one man's strategy is another man's stalling. And this can be very tribal. All you need to do to see that is read some of the posts on HR by their fan parody account Ironbird. A recent perfect example is yesterday he complained that Woods would have won by more if the opponent hadn't stalled. In the same post he referred to Arnold's "tuff ride/mat returns to wear a guy down and kill some clock". You know because one is clearly stalling, but the other is strategy. Blah, blah, blah.

Digging through @grogs84 data for the 1988 to 2021 NCAA tournaments I thought I would find the wrestlers who won a title while scoring the fewest points. To do this I narrowed it down to wrestlers who won all of their matches by decision on their way to a title. Let's call them the Efficient Eight (really 10 with ties, but I do love alliteration).

Why score any more than you need to? It's not like you can use those extra points in later matches. Conserve energy. Don't let 'em see your moves on tape. Good luck scouting all my moves when I only use one per match, if that many. Now that is just smart wrestling.

The heavies are, um, heavily represented with 6 of the 10, but it is a middleweight who shall lead them all. While it saddened me to see that no one had won five straight 1-0 matches in OT, Jason Tsirtsis at 149 in 2014 came closest, having won his 5 matches 4-1, 4-3, 2-1 (OT), 2-1 (OT) and 3-1 (OT) for a 15 point total (only 12 in regulation time, awesome).

image.png.197812812f4d69abe40affb6338bfdaf.png

 

Does anyone know of any wrestlers pre-1988 or post 2021 to score fewer than the world's most efficient wrestler**?

*Ok, Ten, so The Taut Ten?

** Guinness verification pending.

I haven't spent much time on HR (or PSU's boards) the last few years. How certain are you that ironbird is a parody account? That poster is... Quite something but I always thought they were deathly serious

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

As anyone who has paid attention to my posts knows, there are a couple of things I hate for their laziness. The generic claims of ducking and stalling. Here we will ignore the former and focus on the latter.

I loooooove @pmilk's posts on strategy. After all one man's strategy is another man's stalling. And this can be very tribal. All you need to do to see that is read some of the posts on HR by their fan parody account Ironbird. A recent perfect example is yesterday he complained that Woods would have won by more if the opponent hadn't stalled. In the same post he referred to Arnold's "tuff ride/mat returns to wear a guy down and kill some clock". You know because one is clearly stalling, but the other is strategy. Blah, blah, blah.

Digging through @grogs84 data for the 1988 to 2021 NCAA tournaments I thought I would find the wrestlers who won a title while scoring the fewest points. To do this I narrowed it down to wrestlers who won all of their matches by decision on their way to a title. Let's call them the Efficient Eight (really 10 with ties, but I do love alliteration).

Why score any more than you need to? It's not like you can use those extra points in later matches. Conserve energy. Don't let 'em see your moves on tape. Good luck scouting all my moves when I only use one per match, if that many. Now that is just smart wrestling.

The heavies are, um, heavily represented with 6 of the 10, but it is a middleweight who shall lead them all. While it saddened me to see that no one had won five straight 1-0 matches in OT, Jason Tsirtsis at 149 in 2014 came closest, having won his 5 matches 4-1, 4-3, 2-1 (OT), 2-1 (OT) and 3-1 (OT) for a 15 point total (only 12 in regulation time, awesome).

image.png.197812812f4d69abe40affb6338bfdaf.png

 

Does anyone know of any wrestlers pre-1988 or post 2021 to score fewer than the world's most efficient wrestler**?

*Ok, Ten, so The Taut Ten?

** Guinness verification pending.

Surprised to see Ramos and Gwiz on this list. My memory is that's they both were fairly aggressive.

Angle & Zabriske were both undersized Heavies so that seems to make sense. Wasn't Ellis on the smaller side as well?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, headshuck said:

I’m surprised Tony Nelson didn’t make this list given all the grief he got with his ride.

That's because he had a fall in each tournament that he won, thus disqualifying him from the discussion started in the OP.

Edited by jchapman

Craig Henning got screwed in the 2007 NCAA Finals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Jim L said:

Surprised to see Ramos and Gwiz on this list. My memory is that's they both were fairly aggressive.

Angle & Zabriske were both undersized Heavies so that seems to make sense. Wasn't Ellis on the smaller side as well?

 

Jeff Walter was on the smaller side as well. While he wrestled Hwt most of his senior year in high school, he dropped to 189 at the end of the year for the tournaments.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Mr. PeanutButter said:

I haven't spent much time on HR (or PSU's boards) the last few years. How certain are you that ironbird is a parody account? That poster is... Quite something but I always thought they were deathly serious

Well, it is neither death nor taxes, so there is that. But I am pretty certain. There are only like two or three kinds of posts he ever puts up, and I do not feel like a fan would only put up the same kind of post all the time. There would be more variation, more variety. So to me it feels like someone who reserves that screen name for that particular style.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, ionel said:

Don't sell him short!  According to the brackets (I was there) it was 3 coin flips:  first round, semi & final, an OT in the second match and a 3-2 decision in the qrts.   Rules were different then. 

 

BTW: maybe you'd like to do the statistical/probability calculations for us on winning 3 out of 3 coin flips and winning 5 matches in a row at NCAA by a total 1 point differential in the regular 5 x 7 minutes?  I might up the quality on the Christmas gift.  

Let's get this out of the way first. I am not looking to break the bank here. So, maybe a Weller 12 year.

Winning three coin flips with a fair coin comes in at a 12.5% probability (0.5^3). But Lockhart's flawless coin technique has already been discussed, so let's bump that up to 12.6%.

Now let's talk about the probability of 5 consecutive 1 point wins. Using the 1988 - 2021 results we want to focus on the product of the DEC 1 line.

image.png.a4c63958d420c9f7e770a0aac9cbe315.png

Based on this history there is a 0.02% probability (11.34% x 15.34% x 19.85% x 26.67% x 23.64%) of five straight 1 point decisions.

Combined with the enhanced coin flip probability we are now at 0.0027% probability of five straight 1 point wins with 3 successful coin flips.

I will toast you every time I tipple.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Let's get this out of the way first. I am not looking to break the bank here. So, maybe a Weller 12 year.

Winning three coin flips with a fair coin comes in at a 12.5% probability (0.5^3). But Lockhart's flawless coin technique has already been discussed, so let's bump that up to 12.6%.

Now let's talk about the probability of 5 consecutive 1 point wins. Using the 1988 - 2021 results we want to focus on the product of the DEC 1 line.

image.png.a4c63958d420c9f7e770a0aac9cbe315.png

Based on this history there is a 0.02% probability (11.34% x 15.34% x 19.85% x 26.67% x 23.64%) of five straight 1 point decisions.

Combined with the enhanced coin flip probability we are now at 0.0027% probability of five straight 1 point wins with 3 successful coin flips.

I will toast you every time I tipple.

 

They really should've paid John in lottery money.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd love to see what the modern era MFS/WFS version of this list looks like for Worlds and the Olympics. WIth the current pacing of international tournaments and the very high level of competition, stingy scoring makes more sense to me. If you can't pinfell or tech your opponent, you might as well exert as little energy as possible and do the bare minimum to advance since your next match could be in just 20 mins. But passivity rules, 5-point moves, and multiple-exposure laces/guts, etc. can complicate stinginess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

I'd love to see what the modern era MFS/WFS version of this list looks like for Worlds and the Olympics. WIth the current pacing of international tournaments and the very high level of competition, stingy scoring makes more sense to me. If you can't pinfell or tech your opponent, you might as well exert as little energy as possible and do the bare minimum to advance since your next match could be in just 20 mins. But passivity rules, 5-point moves, and multiple-exposure laces/guts, etc. can complicate stinginess.

I would love to see that too.

It seems to me that the matches end early more often with the speed some of these techs. You trap an arm or drop to a tight lace and the match can end in seconds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For completeness here are the outcomes in the consolation bracket:

image.thumb.png.4d6b3f9ba7281d25fd0ca7aa1bec4804.png

A very different set of results on the pinfall line in consolations than in the champinoship bracket. In the championship bracket as the pyramid narrows the number of pinfalls drops. I know. Hard to believe.

In the consolation bracket it is fairly constant until you get to the blood round and placement matches. Things tighten up when all-american is on the line and when final places are determined. More wide open otherwise.

I think there is something to that. It isn't just about parity on the back side, I think there is also room in the conversation for the change in pinfalls being due to risk taking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Years ago as I was using my older software to run tournaments (1981-2004 even before EscapeSports) I had a factor that gave an indication of how strong the event was. Technically, it was fining the total length of bouts as actually wrestled divided by the theoretical limits (6 in HS 7 in college- forget what I did with ots).  Before seeing the results, I along with most thought it would be more of a factor of the better wrestlers and how often they pinned. What we realized was that it was more the factor of the lesser wrestlers and how often they got pinned. And if both wrestlers weren't very good, one of them would find a way to get pinned. JV tournaments had lower values than varsity events. And there was parity in the JV events. So it wasn't entirely that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

For completeness here are the outcomes in the consolation bracket:

A very different set of results on the pinfall line in consolations than in the champinoship bracket. In the championship bracket as the pyramid narrows the number of pinfalls drops. I know. Hard to believe.

Impossible to believe!  I've examined the brackets for 1988 and 2021 (as well as many in between) and find no record of this mysterious "pinfall."  You sir were given bad data.  🤨

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Matches were decided by coin flips in 2001?

After OT when went to TB they flipped a coin and the winner of coin toss had choice top or bottom.  It was not a given at the lower weights but pretty much no one could hold down a HWT.  If you won the coin toss at heavy you chose down escaped and won the match.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Matches were decided by coin flips in 2001?

Wasn't there a time where the last criteria for a tire breaker was a coin flip? Maybe I'm confusing this with pro sports that had a coin flip the  final tie breaker for a playoff spot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Jim L said:

Wasn't there a time where the last criteria for a tire breaker was a coin flip? Maybe I'm confusing this with pro sports that had a coin flip the  final tie breaker for a playoff spot.

Not sure.  I know there was the “referees decisions” at one point but thought that was a while back.  There was also the “ball grab” in freestyle

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



  • Latest Rankings

  • College Commitments

    Israel Ibarra

    Santa Cruz Valley Union, Arizona
    Class of 2025
    Committed to North Carolina
    Projected Weight: 184

    Bronson Baxter

    Dumas, Texas
    Class of 2024
    Committed to Little Rock
    Projected Weight: 157

    Mason Blue

    Laney, North Carolina
    Class of 2024
    Committed to Gardner-Webb
    Projected Weight: 197, 285

    Tristan Cotto

    Laney, North Carolina
    Class of 2024
    Committed to Gardner-Webb
    Projected Weight: 149, 157

    Jesus Gonzalez

    Reedsburg, Wisconsin
    Class of 2024
    Committed to Minnesota State Mankato
    Projected Weight: 285
×
×
  • Create New...