Is Penn State Twice as Good as Anyone Else?

[Wrestleknownothing]

Using Intermat's pre-season rankings and the average placement and advancement points from the 16 seed and 33 seed eras (2014 - 2023), but without any attempt to guess at bonus points, PSU's expected score is more than double (109% higher than) the next closest rival, Cornell.

This is fairly unprecedented. The only times a first place team doubled (or more) the second place team were in the late 1930's. But scoring was so different back then as to make the comparison meaningless. 

When the 1997 Iowa team set the team scoring mark, they "only" beat Minnesota by 50%. And the modern record for spread between first and second is 88% by the 1986 Iowa team.

The scores above assume that every team will perform to the average of recent history and does not account for any over or under performance that may occur.

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

No.  Inevitably there will be injuries, illnesses, off campus issues, underperformance, etc.  Penn State should still win comfortably but they will not double up 2nd place.  I don't see guys like Beau Bartlett and SVN getting as high as 3rd again this year, for example.  I would also bet that Robbie Howard's shoulder doesn't hold up to get him to NCAAs, much less through it.

And this is coming from a huge Penn State homer.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Jimmy Cinnabon

[11986]

12 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Using Intermat's pre-season rankings and the average placement and advancement points from the 16 seed and 33 seed eras (2014 - 2023), but without any attempt to guess at bonus points, PSU's expected score is more than double (109% higher than) the next closest rival, Cornell.

This is fairly unprecedented. The only times a first place team doubled (or more) the second place team were in the late 1930's. But scoring was so different back then as to make the comparison meaningless. 

When the 1997 Iowa team set the team scoring mark, they "only" beat Minnesota by 50%. And the modern record for spread between first and second is 88% by the 1986 Iowa team.

The scores above assume that every team will perform to the average of recent history and does not account for any over or under performance that may occur.

re 1997 wasn't runner-up Ok St, not Minnesota? As for this year, are incoming freshman included in the pre-season rankings?

[Wrestleknownothing]

26 minutes ago, 11986 said:

re 1997 wasn't runner-up Ok St, not Minnesota? As for this year, are incoming freshman included in the pre-season rankings?

Yes, it was Oklahoma State (read the wrong column), but the 50% was accurate.

Yes, Intermat does include freshman.

[BigRedFan]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

 

Yes, Intermat does include freshman.

But not all of them, apparently (Meyer Shapiro?).

[AgaveMaria]

Nope,

While iowa will most likely underperform and Penn State possibly overperform - others will do well and score more than this projection show.

Cornell will do better.

[ionel]

Are you talking dodgeball?  I don't know how other teams stack up but just for fun I'd say sure.

Now if you are talking wrestling, I think we've already established that it would take the right 3 teams to beat them in a dual thus implying they probably are at least twice as good as any other team. 

If only we had a colorful chart we could visualize it for ourselves but I'd rather see the dodgeball chart. 

[Ohio Elite]

Wouldn't surprise me at this point.

[Fadzaev2]

51 minutes ago, ionel said:

Are you talking dodgeball?  I don't know how other teams stack up but just for fun I'd say sure.

Now if you are talking wrestling, I think we've already established that it would take the right 3 teams to beat them in a dual thus implying they probably are at least twice as good as any other team. 

If only we had a colorful chart we could visualize it for ourselves but I'd rather see the dodgeball chart. 

In my physical education classes we called it Battleball....had several variations....kids loved Battleball, but it was only played occasionally...example in the Fall when we were outside, but it was raining....just sayin'

[ionel]

17 minutes ago, Fadzaev2 said:

In my physical education classes we called it Battleball....had several variations....kids loved Battleball, but it was only played occasionally...example in the Fall when we were outside, but it was raining....just sayin'

But ... did you ever try to dodge the ball?  just ask'n. 

[fishbane]

16 hours ago, BigRedFan said:

But not all of them, apparently (Meyer Shapiro?).

This is true.  Mesenbrink isn't on the rankings for PSU either.  Olympic redshirts aren't fully accounted for yet either.

[ionel]

The current poll suggests maybe they are only half as good.  ;(

[fishbane]

18 hours ago, 11986 said:

re 1997 wasn't runner-up Ok St, not Minnesota? As for this year, are incoming freshman included in the pre-season rankings?

Yes! 1997 Iowa was 2x better than Minnesota at NCAAs.  He was correct that they were only 50% better than runner up OSU at NCAAs.  This was quite the turnaround from a few months earlier at when OSU was 60% better at NWCA National Duals.

 

[11986]

47 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Yes! 1997 Iowa was 2x better than Minnesota at NCAAs.  He was correct that they were only 50% better than runner up OSU at NCAAs.  This was quite the turnaround from a few months earlier at when OSU was 60% better at NWCA National Duals.

 

yep quite the turnaround. Lincoln Mac being out of course was huge in the dual. But other changes from dual to tournament were significant as well. 

[fishbane]

54 minutes ago, 11986 said:

yep quite the turnaround. Lincoln Mac being out of course was huge in the dual. But other changes from dual to tournament were significant as well. 

There weren't actually that many changes from the dual.  Really only two.  Guerrero, Reyna, Branch, and Smith all outplayed their Iowa counterparts at NCAAs.  

The big change was, as you said, McIlravy missing the dual.  Still he would have had to not only win but win and get 1 bonus for a tie or two bonus to win outright.  Arias was a decent wrestler and entered NCAAs that year as the 10 seed.  Two plus bonus points was a possibility, but also might not have happened.  

The other change was at 118 where Moore beat Whitmer in the dual and Whitmer reversed the result in the NCAA semifinal.  This was famously Whitmer's senior season and only season as a starter for the Hawkeyes.  Moore entered NCAAs as the 2 seed and would win it next season.  The 1 seed, Morgan, was upset before the final.

OSU was really good that season.  They scored 113.5 team points - that's enough too win many years.  If there was a team that good this season this wouldn't really be a discussion.

[flyingcement]

I've done a few national tournament projections on Wrestlestat.  You enter results for each weight class and then it adds up the team score for you.  In almost every case, Penn State was roughly double the points of the second place team.

Since we know Penn State will win - the interesting question is - who does come second?  Nebraska? Ohio State? Missouri? Cornell? ASU? NC State?  Virginia Tech?  

Edited September 29, 2023 by flyingcement

[Wrestleknownothing]

7 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

I've done a few national tournament projections on Wrestlestat.  You enter results for each weight class and then it adds up the team score for you.  In almost every case, Penn State was roughly double the points of the second place team.

Since we know Penn State will win - the interesting question is - who does come second?  Nebraska? Ohio State? Missouri? Cornell? ASU? NC State?  Virginia Tech?  

Pretty wild that Iowa is not on the list.

[11986]

33 minutes ago, fishbane said:

There weren't actually that many changes from the dual.  Really only two.  Guerrero, Reyna, Branch, and Smith all outplayed their Iowa counterparts at NCAAs.  

The big change was, as you said, McIlravy missing the dual.  Still he would have had to not only win but win and get 1 bonus for a tie or two bonus to win outright.  Arias was a decent wrestler and entered NCAAs that year as the 10 seed.  Two plus bonus points was a possibility, but also might not have happened.  

The other change was at 118 where Moore beat Whitmer in the dual and Whitmer reversed the result in the NCAA semifinal.  This was famously Whitmer's senior season and only season as a starter for the Hawkeyes.  Moore entered NCAAs as the 2 seed and would win it next season.  The 1 seed, Morgan, was upset before the final.

OSU was really good that season.  They scored 113.5 team points - that's enough too win many years.  If there was a team that good this season this wouldn't really be a discussion.

you're right Whitmer was the one change in direct outcome. Guess I was thinking more in terms of relative scoring working out more in Iowa's favor so to speak. 142 - a reg decision win is big in an 8 point margin dual. Guessing Reyna and Gillis (4th and 6th at NCAAs, Gillis more bonus I think) were basically a wash in tournament scoring. 167 and 177 - 8 team points for Ok St in dual is margin of victory, and tournament wise those weights vs Iowa were expected to be very lopsided as well. Still solid in Ok St favor but Iowa made up ground from dual domination with Uker placing 6 from 11 seed and at 177 with Ersland losing in blood rd from non-seed and Smith only getting 4th from 1 seed. That kind of thing.

and again you are right Licnoln would have needed bonus to tie the dual and Arias was a tough out. 

and yes Ok St was very very good that year. Probably one of the better teams ever to not win it. Iowa in addition to being very good also just caught fire that tournament and ended any doubt fairly quickly. 

[11986]

and to further digress from this year and Penn St possibly doubling up 2nd placer, but in light of the good discussion of 1997 Iowa / Ok State, if you haven't done so already, read A Season On The Mat by Nolan Zavoral. Follows Gable and Iowa through his last season as Head coach.  

[1032004]

21 hours ago, flyingcement said:

I've done a few national tournament projections on Wrestlestat.  You enter results for each weight class and then it adds up the team score for you.  In almost every case, Penn State was roughly double the points of the second place team.

Since we know Penn State will win - the interesting question is - who does come second?  Nebraska? Ohio State? Missouri? Cornell? ASU? NC State?  Virginia Tech?  

I’m going Cornell

[ionel]

21 hours ago, flyingcement said:

Since we know Penn State will win -

I think I speak for every non-PSU fan on these here boards in asking if you can guarantee that?  

[1032004]

Maybe a similar question is how few guys will it take for PSU to win?  Not sure if 3 can, but 4 probably could right? 

Edited September 30, 2023 by 1032004

[flyingcement]

1 hour ago, ionel said:

I think I speak for every non-PSU fan on these here boards in asking if you can guarantee that?  

I can personally guarantee it.  

[flyingcement]

[Ohio Elite]

1 hour ago, flyingcement said:

Ouch!!