285 Tiers Discussion, 2023-2024 InterMat Edition

[nhs67]

Greetings All,

@82bordeauxbrings up a good point in this thread.

I am curious what people's opinions on tiers for next season are.

The way I envision a tier system to be is that you can have a good competitive series with someone in your tier and your adjacent tiers.  You typically get  controlled or dominated by gents two or more tiers up and you control or dominate gents two or more tiers down from you.

Now there are 'fluke' matches which tend to be outliers.  Those are typically highlighted by a big move for big points, a Pinfall, or an injury.  In a tiers list, we don't include those.  Someone who wins a 1-0/2-0 match can also be two tiers up on someone as well - styles make matches.

So here is what I have for HWT, I am curious what everybody else's opinions are.  I did these pretty quick, and am flexible to move some gents up and down.  Pitzer was the perplexing one, to me.  I really wanted to split Tier 3 up, however a good way to look at it is I would favor the Tier 3 guys over each of the Tier 5 guys.

- TIER 1 -
Kerkvliet, Penn State
Hendrickson, Air Force

- TIER 2 -
Cassioppi, Iowa
Davison, Michigan
Schultzy, Arizona State

- TIER 3 -
Slavikouski, Rutgers
Elam, Mizzou
Pitzer, Pittsburgh
Fernandez, Cornell
Bastida, Iowa State
Feldman, the Ohio State

- TIER 4 -
Luffman, Illinois
Nevills, Maryland
Griess, Navy
Ghadali, Campbell
Taylor, Lehigh
Gordon, Northern Iowa
Catka, Virginia Tech
Trephan, NC State

- TIER 5 -
Doucet, Oklahoma State
Wolfgram, West Viriginia
Bullock, Indiana
Heindselman, Oklahoma
Niesenbaum, Duke
Copass, Purdue

[hawkguy]

1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

Greetings All,

@82bordeauxbrings up a good point in this thread.

I am curious what people's opinions on tiers for next season are.

The way I envision a tier system to be is that you can have a good competitive series with someone in your tier and your adjacent tiers.  You typically get  controlled or dominated by gents two or more tiers up and you control or dominate gents two or more tiers down from you.

Now there are 'fluke' matches which tend to be outliers.  Those are typically highlighted by a big move for big points, a Pinfall, or an injury.  In a tiers list, we don't include those.  Someone who wins a 1-0/2-0 match can also be two tiers up on someone as well - styles make matches.

So here is what I have for HWT, I am curious what everybody else's opinions are.  I did these pretty quick, and am flexible to move some gents up and down.  Pitzer was the perplexing one, to me.  I really wanted to split Tier 3 up, however a good way to look at it is I would favor the Tier 3 guys over each of the Tier 5 guys.

- TIER 1 -
Kerkvliet, Penn State
Hendrickson, Air Force

- TIER 2 -
Cassioppi, Iowa
Davison, Michigan
Schultzy, Arizona State

- TIER 3 -
Slavikouski, Rutgers
Elam, Mizzou
Pitzer, Pittsburgh
Fernandez, Cornell
Bastida, Iowa State
Feldman, the Ohio State

- TIER 4 -
Luffman, Illinois
Nevills, Maryland
Griess, Navy
Ghadali, Campbell
Taylor, Lehigh
Gordon, Northern Iowa
Catka, Virginia Tech
Trephan, NC State

- TIER 5 -
Doucet, Oklahoma State
Wolfgram, West Viriginia
Bullock, Indiana
Heindselman, Oklahoma
Niesenbaum, Duke
Copass, Purdue

Drop Feldman down to tier 4 until we see results that would indicate any higher, is Bastida actually going to HWT?

[nhs67]

8 minutes ago, hawkguy said:

Drop Feldman down to tier 4 until we see results that would indicate any higher, is Bastida actually going to HWT?

I could see that.  I just don't see him losing to any TIER 5 guy, so that is my justification.

What do your tiers look like?

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

Trepham beat Pitzer this year in the dual, sending Pitzer back into redshirt.  Not saying that Pitzer won't improve tremendously, perhaps at a faster rate than Trepham, but the NC State match was enough for Gavin to slam the brakes on their plans for him. 

[Idaho]

That looks pretty accurate to me... after a good run two years ago you would have thought that Schultz would be in tier 1.  I could see him getting there again, but he definitely didn't look like it last year. 

[Le duke]

7 minutes ago, Idaho said:

That looks pretty accurate to me... after a good run two years ago you would have thought that Schultz would be in tier 1.  I could see him getting there again, but he definitely didn't look like it last year. 

I'd bet that Schultz will take an OLY this year, too.

[1032004]

Is there any talk of Trumble going HWT?

[Idaho]

17 minutes ago, Le duke said:

I'd bet that Schultz will take an OLY this year, too.

I agree- it makes the most sense. He looked a little disinterested last year. 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

28 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Is there any talk of Trumble going HWT?

I've heard it mentioned.  I think Olympic year this year.

[nhs67]

58 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Trepham beat Pitzer this year in the dual, sending Pitzer back into redshirt.  Not saying that Pitzer won't improve tremendously, perhaps at a faster rate than Trepham, but the NC State match was enough for Gavin to slam the brakes on their plans for him. 

Pitzer was one that had me on the edge.  To the point that it was either him at 3 and Trephan at 4 or Shultzy down to 3 and Pitzer at 4.

That win he had over Schultzy is the real kink in the knot.

That said, I am starting to think Schultzy to 3 and Pitzer to 4 makes sense.

[VakAttack]

Cass probably belongs in his own tier, since he has never lost to either Schultz (3-0) or Davison (like 30-0), and has multiple wins over Kerkvliet.  He obviously doesn't belong in Tier 1, but also seems to me to have a division between him and other two in @nhs67's tiers.

[1032004]

11 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

Cass probably belongs in his own tier, since he has never lost to either Schultz (3-0) or Davison (like 30-0), and has multiple wins over Kerkvliet.  He obviously doesn't belong in Tier 1, but also seems to me to have a division between him and other two in @nhs67's tiers.

Cass and Davison have wrestled 30 times?   Didn't Davison used to be smaller?    Cass's most recent wins over both of them were in SV so I think putting them together in Tier 2 is fair.

[VakAttack]

4 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Cass and Davison have wrestled 30 times?   Didn't Davison used to be smaller?    Cass's most recent wins over both of them were in SV so I think putting them together in Tier 2 is fair.

For some reason I thought Cass had wrestled Davison multiple times two years ago so I was trying to be comically hyperbolic, but apparently it was once, so poor memory on my part.  He's still 6-0 combined against both guys, and again, has multiple wins over Kerkvliet.  I stand by my argument.

[1032004]

1 minute ago, VakAttack said:

For some reason I thought Cass had wrestled Davison multiple times two years ago so I was trying to be comically hyperbolic, but apparently it was once, so poor memory on my part.  He's still 6-0 combined against both guys, and again, has multiple wins over Kerkvliet.  I stand by my argument.

Fair enough to agree to disagree, but if we used what I think is FRL's definition of "would you be shocked to see them lose to someone in a lower tier," would you be shocked if Cass lost to either of them?

[VakAttack]

2 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Fair enough to agree to disagree, but if we used what I think is FRL's definition of "would you be shocked to see them lose to someone in a lower tier," would you be shocked if Cass lost to either of them?

No, but then I wouldn't be shocked if Cass beat Kerkvliet again.  I wouldn't pick it or wager money on it, but the previous results have happened, and it's more than one.  Plus, if the rule change go into effect about top wrestling, Kerkvliet among other Penn State guys is going to have to figure out the top wrestling "sit on the ankle situation".

[BobDole]

You could make an argument that Tier 1 and 2 could be combined. Anyone outside those tiers would be a huge surprise to make the finals. 

[MPhillips]

11 minutes ago, BobDole said:

You could make an argument that Tier 1 and 2 could be combined.

I wouldn't disagree. I think you have a pretty stiff argument Mr. Dole.

[nhs67]

33 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

For some reason I thought Cass had wrestled Davison multiple times two years ago so I was trying to be comically hyperbolic, but apparently it was once, so poor memory on my part.  He's still 6-0 combined against both guys, and again, has multiple wins over Kerkvliet.  I stand by my argument.

Davison has beaten Cassioppi before, albeit in a different style.  If you are only looking at their Folkstyle results in-season, which I understand, you would also notice that Cassioppi is trending down in not only his series with Davison but his series with Kerkvliet.

VS Davison
- 1/14/22, Win via Dec 7-3
- 1/13/23, Win via Dec 3-2
- 3/4/23, Win via Dec 4-2 (SV-1)

VS Kerkvliet
- 3/6/21, Win via Major 9-0
- 1/28/22, Win via Dec 7-2
-  3/5/22, Win via Dec 6-4 (SV-1)
- 1/27/23, Loss via Dec 4-1
- 3/4/23, Loss via Dec 5-0

What I mean to say is that Kerkvliet has separated himself.  He improved more the last year than Cassioppi.  Davison has also improved more.  What you are also ignoring is that Kerkvliet beat a guy who pinned him, in Hendrickson at the same season ending NCAAs this year.  At the same tournament Cassioppi lost to Parris via 16-1 Techfall where Kerkvliet lost via 5-1 Decision.  Kerkvliet has earned himself next tier up due to his results. 

Are we going to say Cassioppi is going to beat Parris because he techfalled him back their senior season in High School when Parris was first coming up from 220?  No.  These guys are ever-evolving and Kerkvliet has separated himself.

 

[VakAttack]

Just now, nhs67 said:

Davison has beaten Cassioppi before, albeit in a different style.  If you are only looking at their Folkstyle results in-season, which I understand, you would also notice that Cassioppi is trending down in not only his series with Davison but his series with Kerkvliet.

VS Davison
- 1/14/22, Win via Dec 7-3
- 1/13/23, Win via Dec 3-2
- 3/4/23, Win via Dec 4-2 (SV-1)

VS Kerkvliet
- 3/6/21, Win via Major 9-0
- 1/28/22, Win via Dec 7-2
-  3/5/22, Win via Dec 6-4 (SV-1)
- 1/27/23, Loss via Dec 4-1
- 3/4/23, Loss via Dec 5-0

What I mean to say is that Kerkvliet has separated himself.  He improved more the last year than Cassioppi.  Davison has also improved more.  What you are also ignoring is that Kerkvliet beat a guy who pinned him, in Hendrickson at the same season ending NCAAs this year.  At the same tournament Cassioppi lost to Parris via 16-1 Techfall where Kerkvliet lost via 5-1 Decision.  Kerkvliet has earned himself next tier up due to his results. 

Are we going to say Cassioppi is going to beat Parris because he techfalled him back their senior season in High School when Parris was first coming up from 220?  No.  These guys are ever-evolving and Kerkvliet has separated himself.

 

I feel like I was pretty clear that Cassioppi belong on his own second tier, not in the tier with Hendrickson and Kerkvliet.  The Kerkvliet wins are not evidence in my mind that he belongs in the same tier as Kerkvliet, given Kerk's recent results against him, but further evidence as to why he should be above Schultz and Davison, who he is also undefeated against.

[bnwtwg]

This thread topic makes my heavyweight heart happy. Thank you. Also, Hendrickson is taking out Kerk next year. Book it.

[MPhillips]

16 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Book it.

I like it.

[nhs67]

1 hour ago, VakAttack said:

I feel like I was pretty clear that Cassioppi belong on his own second tier, not in the tier with Hendrickson and Kerkvliet.  The Kerkvliet wins are not evidence in my mind that he belongs in the same tier as Kerkvliet, given Kerk's recent results against him, but further evidence as to why he should be above Schultz and Davison, who he is also undefeated against.

I could see that and would get that.  I also don't see any of the current Tier 3 beating Cassioppi, just Davison and Schultzy, should they meet.  My hestation then becomes that I could see Davison giving Kerk or Hendrickson a match.

Until it happens, though, I can concede Cassioppi into his own Tier 2, sliding every tier down one.  With the adjustment of Pitzer and Schultzy down an additional one as well.  My adjusted tiers would then be...

- TIER 1 -
Kerkvliet, Penn State
Hendrickson, Air Force

- TIER 2 -
Cassioppi, Iowa

- TIER 3 -
Davison, Michigan

- TIER 3 -
Slavikouski, Rutgers
Elam, Mizzou
Fernandez, Cornell
Bastida, Iowa State
Schultzy, Arizona State
Feldman, the Ohio State

- TIER 4 -
Luffman, Illinois
Pitzer, Pittsburgh
Nevills, Maryland
Griess, Navy
Ghadali, Campbell
Taylor, Lehigh
Gordon, Northern Iowa
Catka, Virginia Tech
Trephan, NC State

- TIER 5 -
Doucet, Oklahoma State
Wolfgram, West Viriginia
Bullock, Indiana
Heindselman, Oklahoma
Niesenbaum, Duke
Copass, Purdue

[nhs67]

I just realized by doing this I also put Davison in his own tier as well.

[MPhillips]

14 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I just realized by doing this I also put Davison in his own tier as well.

Maybe just make twenty three tiers.

[82bordeaux]

6 hours ago, nhs67 said:

Greetings All,

@82bordeauxbrings up a good point in this thread.

I am curious what people's opinions on tiers for next season are.

The way I envision a tier system to be is that you can have a good competitive series with someone in your tier and your adjacent tiers.  You typically get  controlled or dominated by gents two or more tiers up and you control or dominate gents two or more tiers down from you.

Now there are 'fluke' matches which tend to be outliers.  Those are typically highlighted by a big move for big points, a Pinfall, or an injury.  In a tiers list, we don't include those.  Someone who wins a 1-0/2-0 match can also be two tiers up on someone as well - styles make matches.

So here is what I have for HWT, I am curious what everybody else's opinions are.  I did these pretty quick, and am flexible to move some gents up and down.  Pitzer was the perplexing one, to me.  I really wanted to split Tier 3 up, however a good way to look at it is I would favor the Tier 3 guys over each of the Tier 5 guys.

- TIER 1 -
Kerkvliet, Penn State
Hendrickson, Air Force

- TIER 2 -
Cassioppi, Iowa
Davison, Michigan
Schultzy, Arizona State

- TIER 3 -
Slavikouski, Rutgers
Elam, Mizzou
Pitzer, Pittsburgh
Fernandez, Cornell
Bastida, Iowa State
Feldman, the Ohio State

- TIER 4 -
Luffman, Illinois
Nevills, Maryland
Griess, Navy
Ghadali, Campbell
Taylor, Lehigh
Gordon, Northern Iowa
Catka, Virginia Tech
Trephan, NC State

- TIER 5 -
Doucet, Oklahoma State
Wolfgram, West Viriginia
Bullock, Indiana
Heindselman, Oklahoma
Niesenbaum, Duke
Copass, Purdue

I think your tiers are accurate but I think some of tier 3 is a little overrated except for Slavikouski and Elam. Feldman is unproven and small at this level. Bastida is small for 285. Big boys could gas him from top position. I think a few guys from the tier below could be there.

But let's talk about Nevills since that started the conversation. I admit I was being a little cheeky about him being a semi-finalist. But I wouldn't be surprised if he does. This is why I think he's underrated:

1. He's a big 285. Big as in length and meat.

2. He's extremely athletic for a man of his size.

3. He had some not great losses (Catka/Houghton) in 2022, but he was playing football full-time that year.

4. He has experience wrestling great competition in the Big 10. He's wrestled Steveson/Cass/Parris and Kervliet in the room.

5. He has the pedigree not only in the family, but he was a 4 time California State Champ. He was arguably the best out of the family.

Of anyone in the 285 field that could overachieve, he is my #1 pick. This is his first chance at wrestling a full season. That's my rationale.