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mspart

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6 minutes ago, mspart said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b9550b18-9333-3928-8069-65bbd018c992/bud-light-boycott-already.html

Bud Light Boycott Already Costs Anheuser-Busch $15.7 Billion

Again, this will be a case study in colleges for years to come of what not to do.   Perhaps Target is following suit. 

mspart

Are you in the camp that this boycott is about something other than bigotry?

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4 hours ago, mspart said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b9550b18-9333-3928-8069-65bbd018c992/bud-light-boycott-already.html

Bud Light Boycott Already Costs Anheuser-Busch $15.7 Billion

Again, this will be a case study in colleges for years to come of what not to do.   Perhaps Target is following suit. 

mspart

I feel like you and the headline writer didn't read the article critically.

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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Whelp, two different construction owners I know have not boycotted.  One still buys Busch Light for our post-MSBL games.  The other has a beer fridge full of Bud Light and says thank you for the cheapies.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b9550b18-9333-3928-8069-65bbd018c992/bud-light-boycott-already.html

Another group is getting burned by Anheuser-Busch's (BUD) controversial Bud Light promotion: Its investors. But analysts insist the sting of the boycott on the company's popular beer will dissipate.

The market value of Anheuser-Busch InBev, whose fourth bestselling brand is Bud Light, dropped $15.7 billion since April 1, based on a conversion to U.S. dollars by Investor's Business Daily using data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. That's the day Dylan Mulvaney, a TikTok influencer and transgender woman, pitched the Bud Light brand during the NCAA March Madness tournament.

Meanwhile, the other major publicly traded global beer brands have added $3.2 billion in market value during the same time.

The Bud Light backlash to the promotion was almost instantaneous. Conservative consumers called for a boycott of the beer. Bud Light sales are down more than 23% as of the week ended on May 6, said Jared Dinges, beverage analyst at JPMorgan Chase in a note to clients Tuesday, citing data from NielsenIQ.

"We believe there is a subset of American consumers who will not drink a Bud Light for the foreseeable future," Dinges said. "We believe a 12% to 13% volume decline on an annualized basis would be a reasonable assumption."

Bud Light Brouhaha

Anheuser-Busch's stock shows just how significant the boycott has been. With shares down 11.9% since April 1, the company's investors are suffering while most other beer companies are trending higher.

The biggest winner from the Bud Light situation is Molson Coors Beverage (TAP). Shares are up more than 20% from April 1. That's added more than $2.2 billion in market value to the stock.

Overseas brands are also benefiting. "Shares (Of Anheuser-Busch) have underperformed EU Beer peers by 15% since the start of April," Dinges said. "We believe this is due to U.S. uncertainty, as investor focus has shifted squarely to the potential impact from the Bud Light controversy."

Analysts Not Worried

Damage to Anheuser-Busch's business isn't just swift, but significant. But analysts think the sell-off is overdone.

While Anheuser-Busch is based in Belgium, the U.S. is its largest source of revenue accounting for 25% of the total in 2022, Dinges said. And Bud Light was the company's fourth bestselling beer, accounting for 7% of volume sold in 2022. It only trails Budweiser at 11%, Corona at 8% and Brahma at 7%.

And the damage from the boycotts is lasting. JPMorgan thinks U.S. beer volumes for Anheuser-Busch will drop by 12% this year and knock down earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by 23%. "We do not expect the lost sales to be recovered in fiscal year 2024," Dinges said.

But Dinges still sees upside in the shares. His price target on the U.S. ADR shares is 76 a share. That would mark 29% upside to Tuesday's close. And he's not alone. Analysts' average target price is 73 a share. And analysts still think the company will maintain 9.6% long-term growth. Anheuser-Busch's adjusted earnings per share is seen shrinking less than 1% this year and growing again in 2024 by 18%.

How can analysts be so bullish on the stock when the business is softening? Simple. "This appears priced-in," Dinges said. Investors pushed the stock down so much they're pricing in a 45% drop in earnings before interest and taxes. But Dinges says the company's cash flow is only likely to fall by 4%. The 26% drop in U.S. cash flow is offset by "upgrades in the rest of the business."

"We believe risk-reward is favorable from here," he said.

So what did I get wrong?   AB lost value to the amount of close to 16 Billion.   Yes, for sure this major loss is all priced in, ha ha. 

mspart

 

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4 minutes ago, Mike Parrish said:

They'll just buy up other brands and regain their market share.

In a year, this kerfluffle will be a distant memory.

will they be "smart" enough to try a similar ad campaign after this "kerfluffle"?

Trying Not To Laugh Rooster Teeth GIF by Achievement Hunter 

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Just now, Mike Parrish said:

Probably not as openly.

Do you think that AB will abandon the demographic they were trying to reach in the first place?

i feel like they probably nailed that demographic like they intended...

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1 minute ago, Mike Parrish said:

Like I said, it'll be business as usual in a year.

you can dance around any question you don't like the answer to with next level proficiency...

 

i want it that way millennium GIF by BACKSTREET BOYS

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7 minutes ago, Mike Parrish said:

How is that dancing?

In the short term, they got beat up.
In the long term, they won.

you maybe on to something here...

but...

if history has proven anything, it is that some "demographics" do not act in a reasonable manner...

we can all keep hope alive though, yes?

Pray Kimmy Schmidt GIF by Demic

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On 5/26/2023 at 10:13 AM, mspart said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b9550b18-9333-3928-8069-65bbd018c992/bud-light-boycott-already.html

Another group is getting burned by Anheuser-Busch's (BUD) controversial Bud Light promotion: Its investors. But analysts insist the sting of the boycott on the company's popular beer will dissipate.

The market value of Anheuser-Busch InBev, whose fourth bestselling brand is Bud Light, dropped $15.7 billion since April 1, based on a conversion to U.S. dollars by Investor's Business Daily using data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. That's the day Dylan Mulvaney, a TikTok influencer and transgender woman, pitched the Bud Light brand during the NCAA March Madness tournament.

Meanwhile, the other major publicly traded global beer brands have added $3.2 billion in market value during the same time.

The Bud Light backlash to the promotion was almost instantaneous. Conservative consumers called for a boycott of the beer. Bud Light sales are down more than 23% as of the week ended on May 6, said Jared Dinges, beverage analyst at JPMorgan Chase in a note to clients Tuesday, citing data from NielsenIQ.

"We believe there is a subset of American consumers who will not drink a Bud Light for the foreseeable future," Dinges said. "We believe a 12% to 13% volume decline on an annualized basis would be a reasonable assumption."

Bud Light Brouhaha

Anheuser-Busch's stock shows just how significant the boycott has been. With shares down 11.9% since April 1, the company's investors are suffering while most other beer companies are trending higher.

The biggest winner from the Bud Light situation is Molson Coors Beverage (TAP). Shares are up more than 20% from April 1. That's added more than $2.2 billion in market value to the stock.

Overseas brands are also benefiting. "Shares (Of Anheuser-Busch) have underperformed EU Beer peers by 15% since the start of April," Dinges said. "We believe this is due to U.S. uncertainty, as investor focus has shifted squarely to the potential impact from the Bud Light controversy."

Analysts Not Worried

Damage to Anheuser-Busch's business isn't just swift, but significant. But analysts think the sell-off is overdone.

While Anheuser-Busch is based in Belgium, the U.S. is its largest source of revenue accounting for 25% of the total in 2022, Dinges said. And Bud Light was the company's fourth bestselling beer, accounting for 7% of volume sold in 2022. It only trails Budweiser at 11%, Corona at 8% and Brahma at 7%.

And the damage from the boycotts is lasting. JPMorgan thinks U.S. beer volumes for Anheuser-Busch will drop by 12% this year and knock down earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by 23%. "We do not expect the lost sales to be recovered in fiscal year 2024," Dinges said.

But Dinges still sees upside in the shares. His price target on the U.S. ADR shares is 76 a share. That would mark 29% upside to Tuesday's close. And he's not alone. Analysts' average target price is 73 a share. And analysts still think the company will maintain 9.6% long-term growth. Anheuser-Busch's adjusted earnings per share is seen shrinking less than 1% this year and growing again in 2024 by 18%.

How can analysts be so bullish on the stock when the business is softening? Simple. "This appears priced-in," Dinges said. Investors pushed the stock down so much they're pricing in a 45% drop in earnings before interest and taxes. But Dinges says the company's cash flow is only likely to fall by 4%. The 26% drop in U.S. cash flow is offset by "upgrades in the rest of the business."

"We believe risk-reward is favorable from here," he said.

So what did I get wrong?   AB lost value to the amount of close to 16 Billion.   Yes, for sure this major loss is all priced in, ha ha. 

mspart

 

You posted a headline to an article that contradicts its own headline.

 

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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Remember the big controversy of Nike using Colin Kaepernick as a spokesperson and all the backlash they got there? For some reason Nike has survived and most everyone has forgotten about it. Bud Light and now Target are then newest flavor of the weeks.

The difference with Bud Light and Nike is that Bud Light is something that is consumed weekly, well daily for some. Thus if a chunk of people quit drinking for a few weeks it affects them dramatically in the short term. Beer drinkers aren't akin to change and thus will be back on the Bud Light sooner than they want to admit. You can't be calling Miller Lite and Coors piss water your whole life and start drinking it. Target is in the middle where it's likely a bi-weekly adventure to the store. Bud Light will be fine and in a month there will be another travesty hitting us with a brand supporting something the right hates. 

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37 minutes ago, BobDole said:

Remember the big controversy of Nike using Colin Kaepernick as a spokesperson and all the backlash they got there? For some reason Nike has survived and most everyone has forgotten about it. Bud Light and now Target are then newest flavor of the weeks.

The difference with Bud Light and Nike is that Bud Light is something that is consumed weekly, well daily for some. Thus if a chunk of people quit drinking for a few weeks it affects them dramatically in the short term. Beer drinkers aren't akin to change and thus will be back on the Bud Light sooner than they want to admit. You can't be calling Miller Lite and Coors piss water your whole life and start drinking it. Target is in the middle where it's likely a bi-weekly adventure to the store. Bud Light will be fine and in a month there will be another travesty hitting us with a brand supporting something the right hates. 

this close to the truth...

it is only the left that will dig back for years for any indiscretion they can lash their hate out with...

the right tends to get over it pretty quickly and not hold grudges...

Greeting Good Day GIF by MOODMAN

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34 minutes ago, LJB said:

this close to the truth...

it is only the left that will dig back for years for any indiscretion they can lash their hate out with...

the right tends to get over it pretty quickly and not hold grudges...

Greeting Good Day GIF by MOODMAN

Short term memory vs. long term memory

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