Predicting Penn State at NCAAs

[ionel]

3 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

no less than if 6 - 9 qualify and they all go 0-2.

Exactly, # qualifying doesn't necessarily predict higher finish, even if we go with "upside."  It may not pan out, but Nebraska has the appearance of a good tournament team.  6 great tournament guys can win an NCAA title, well as long as Penn St ain't entered in the same tournament.

Related note, will Assad wrestle Sunday cause without him OSU could match up ... but of course ddm.  

[BerniePragle]

I think some people are missing the "PSU outperforms at NCAAs" factor.  There are at least a couple guys that could be moved up a notch or two due to this.  I think Jimmy's pretty close except Brooks or Dean could very well win.  Time will tell.

[Wrestleknownothing]

10 minutes ago, ionel said:

Exactly, # qualifying doesn't necessarily predict higher finish, even if we go with "upside."  It may not pan out, but Nebraska has the appearance of a good tournament team.  6 great tournament guys can win an NCAA title, well as long as Penn St ain't entered in the same tournament.

Related note, will Assad wrestle Sunday cause without him OSU could match up ... but of course ddm.  

Yeah, but Nebraska does not have 6 great tournament guys.

[FearTheTurtle]

125 DNQ

133 1st

141 4th

149 6th

157 3rd

165 7th

174 1st

184 1st

197 1st

HWT 1st

 

 

[Gus]

6 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Yeah, but Nebraska does not have 6 great tournament guys.

May the wrath of @jajensen09 be quick and painless

[Wrestleknownothing]

3 minutes ago, Gus said:

May the wrath of @jajensen09 be quick and painless

So disappointing that there was no wrath last time. Hopefully he was saving both barrels for me.

[ionel]

7 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Yeah, but Nebraska does not have 6 great tournament guys.

From WS, have NE #2 tourney team and

125 Cronin #6

141 Hardy #3 

157 Robb #1

174 Labriola  #2

184 Pinto #7  plus he's on fire  

197 Allred # 10  he's all red 4 the big red

Any time you have a top 10 guy who catches fire in the tourney he could make semi or final.  This team has potential and if Penn St doesn't qualify or voluntarily withdraws. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[nhs67]

This thread might be the first one ever in which JC isn't trolling Penn State.  Holy shit.

[ionel]

5 hours ago, flyingcement said:

125: DNQ

133: 1st

141: 3rd

149: 7th

157: 5th

165: R12

174: 1st

184: 1st

197: 3rd

285: 2nd

 

4 hours ago, ionel said:

You've clearly fallen in love with Penn St.  ❤ 

Also, don't forget that tomorrow is Valentines Day.  I'm sure Jimmy & Wkn are expecting cards.  

[jajensen09]

4 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Only 1 finalist?  No I don’t think that is possible.

It's possible. Not likely 

[jajensen09]

2 hours ago, ionel said:

From WS, have NE #2 tourney team and

125 Cronin #6

141 Hardy #3 

157 Robb #1

174 Labriola  #2

184 Pinto #7  plus he's on fire  

197 Allred # 10  he's all red 4 the big red

Any time you have a top 10 guy who catches fire in the tourney he could make semi or final.  This team has potential and if Penn St doesn't qualify or voluntarily withdraws. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Allred and Lenny are both on .  

[poorwrestler]

Allred and Lenny are both on .  

Pinto has an impressive win over Trey Munoz at CKLV I’ll give him that. Other than that has he beaten a top 15 guy? Losses to Bolen, Malczewski, Cade King, Salazar, Keckeisen, Assad, and Saha AbdulRassaq.

He puts up a lot of highlight reel moves, but still has a lot of improvement to make imo. Which is to be expected as a freshman.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ionel]

2 hours ago, poorwrestler said:

Pinto has an impressive win over Trey Munoz at CKLV I’ll give him that. Other than that has he beaten a top 15 guy? Losses to Bolen, Malczewski, Cade King, Salazar, Keckeisen, Assad, and Saha AbdulRassaq.

He puts up a lot of highlight reel moves, but still has a lot of improvement to make imo. Which is to be expected as a freshman.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Since first of year Pinto has lost twice by 1 pt to Assad & Salazar.  He seems to be improving with every match.  

[scourge165]

125-DNP

133-1st

141-4th

149-Rd 12

157-1st

165-Rd 12
(I really have no clue here....this weight is just so deep. I just think it's too easy to see Facundo losing in the quarters and then seeing a stud on the backside).

174-1st

184-1st

197-4th

HWT-1st

I've been arguing Haines would win it since last year...provided Carr goes '65 and he did, so I'm not gonna jump off that bandwagon now. 

Of the 5 Champs, I think Brooks, Starroci, RBY, Kerkvliet and Haines are the most likely, in that order to win it.
I'm a little surprised people are picking against Brooks. Less so that they're picking against RBY, but I think his loss was a fluke. 

But...that's why this tournament is so great. It'd hardly be shocking if any of these guys lost...or, if a vet like Dean can find a way to repeat or Bartlett can manage to get to the finals and win it.

[82bordeaux]

17 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

184 - Brooks, 2nd.  Probably my most controversial pick.  I think Hidlay takes him out in the finals.

You put your right foot in, you put your right foot out...

[1032004]

9 hours ago, jajensen09 said:

It's possible. Not likely 

Well sure lots of things are “possible.”  I think 6 champs is more likely than only 1 in the finals

[jajensen09]

15 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Yeah, but Nebraska does not have 6 great tournament guys.

Not true. Nebraska has 6 guys that can place very high

[jajensen09]

3 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Well sure lots of things are “possible.”  I think 6 champs is more likely than only 1 in the finals

I'd say 2 finalists are a lock. Unless Lewis ends up #4 seed. 

[jajensen09]

9 hours ago, ionel said:

Since first of year Pinto has lost twice by 1 pt to Assad & Salazar.  He seems to be improving with every match.  

He had that win over Salazar. Some crappy calls/rules in that match. Salazar don't want to see him again

[1032004]

14 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

I'd say 2 finalists are a lock. Unless Lewis ends up #4 seed. 

Yeah I’d probably even go as far as saying PSU having seven champs is more likely than them only having one finalist

Edited February 14, 2023 by 1032004

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, jajensen09 said:

Not true. Nebraska has 6 guys that can place very high

There he is. Good morning.

You and I have very different definitions of great tournament guys. A great tournament guy to me is someone who has done it before, not just has the potential to do it.

If you extend your list to 6 then you are including Silas Allred who is ranked 10. That would mean you think there are at least 100 great tournament guys. I do not think that.

I think there are currently 16 great tournament guys and PSU has 4 of them. To be a great tournament guy in my book you need to have made the final. Everything else is a good to middling tournament guy or a guy with the potential to be a great tournament guy. There are a lot of guys with the potential.

But as things stand, if Allred is the 10 or higher seed he has about a 1.1% chance of making the final and a 3.3% of All-American.

[Gus]

33 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

There he is. Good morning.

You and I have very different definitions of great tournament guys. A great tournament guy to me is someone who has done it before, not just has the potential to do it.

If you extend your list to 6 then you are including Silas Allred who is ranked 10. That would mean you think there are at least 100 great tournament guys. I do not think that.

I think there are currently 16 great tournament guys and PSU has 4 of them. To be a great tournament guy in my book you need to have made the final. Everything else is a good to middling tournament guy or a guy with the potential to be a great tournament guy. There are a lot of guys with the potential.

But as things stand, if Allred is the 10 or higher seed he has about a 1.1% chance of making the final and a 3.3% of All-American.

I county 19 great tournament guys by your criteria above

Spencer Lee, Pat Glory, RBY, Daton Fix, Yianni, Sammy Sasso, Austin O'Connor, Keegan O'Toole, David Carr, Quincy Monday, Carter Starocci, Mekhi Lewis, Aaron Brooks, Trent Hidlay, Max Dean, Jacob Warner, Nino, Mason Parris, Cohlton Shultz

[Wrestleknownothing]

6 minutes ago, Gus said:

I county 19 great tournament guys by your criteria above

Spencer Lee, Pat Glory, RBY, Daton Fix, Yianni, Sammy Sasso, Austin O'Connor, Keegan O'Toole, David Carr, Quincy Monday, Carter Starocci, Mekhi Lewis, Aaron Brooks, Trent Hidlay, Max Dean, Jacob Warner, Nino, Mason Parris, Cohlton Shultz

I knew I counted poorly. I missed O'Connor, Sasso, and Hidlay. Now only 81 more to go.

[Gus]

7 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I knew I counted poorly. I missed O'Connor, Sasso, and Hidlay. Now only 81 more to go.

add Shane Griffith to the list as well.

[jajensen09]

54 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

There he is. Good morning.

You and I have very different definitions of great tournament guys. A great tournament guy to me is someone who has done it before, not just has the potential to do it.

If you extend your list to 6 then you are including Silas Allred who is ranked 10. That would mean you think there are at least 100 great tournament guys. I do not think that.

I think there are currently 16 great tournament guys and PSU has 4 of them. To be a great tournament guy in my book you need to have made the final. Everything else is a good to middling tournament guy or a guy with the potential to be a great tournament guy. There are a lot of guys with the potential.

But as things stand, if Allred is the 10 or higher seed he has about a 1.1% chance of making the final and a 3.3% of All-American.

That's not even close to a way to be accurate.  Every weight class is different.  You have to go by weight class not the entire field. I'd say Allred is 50/50 on AAing