Undefeated freshmen - a threat to Cael?

[1032004]

24 minutes ago, boconnell said:

Are we safe in assuming Messenbrink can beat Nico Ruiz?  At what point can we assume undefeated NCAA champs can beat guys down bracket with multiple losses?  Guys who got worked by guys worked by the champ?  

But if you want to hang on to the fantasy that Blaze can beat Forrest, go right ahead.  I'll just walk away from this pointless discussion like I need to.

Lol his “multiple losses” were to a guy he also has a win over, and who Jax beat 5-2.

Obviously Jax is the favorite moving forward and “can” beat him, I just wouldn’t be so quick to assume the outcome.  Unfortunately we won’t see it in folkstyle until the next NCAA tournament if at all.

[boconnell]

19 minutes ago, elijedi06 said:

Anyone is beatable in wrestling that’s the fun of it. This year we saw Mendez go down, last year was Gable, 3 years ago was Lee. 
 

even off the mat, Kyle Snyder succumbed to prostitution, Zahid to cocaine, Aaron Brooks to grocery store supplements, Starrocci to Beau Bartlett… the list goes on and on 

I said if the statement was Jax will lose because being perfect is super hard, then that makes sense.  I bet Jax does lose a match at some point.  It's nearly impossible to go undefeated 4 times.

I said if the statement was Jax will lose because those other freshman will probably beat him at some point, it doesn't make sense.  He was clearly a level or more better than the other freshmen. 

And the idea that because Blaze lost to multiple other guys instead of Jax, we don't know if Jax beats Blaze is dumb. Blaze is firmly in Jax's rearview at this point.  Maybe he goes back to the drawing board and reinvents himself and catches back up, but who they both are right now is very clear.

[Nak21]

2 hours ago, ionel said:

The freshman aren't a threat. 

This is a threat!

Guys, save yourselves! I got this. Someone get me a gallon of milk.

[ionel]

25 minutes ago, Nak21 said:

Guys, save yourselves! I got this. Someone get me a gallon of milk.

@Hurricane Wrestling has some leftover milk the grandkids didn't drink.   

[Perry]

6 hours ago, Caveira said:

Under today’s rules would Carl even be undefeated ?   That loss would be in his record.  

Luke lilledahl's loss this year didn't count on his record

[Hurricane Wrestling]

19 minutes ago, ionel said:

@Hurricane Wrestling has some leftover milk the grandkids didn't drink.   

The granddaughter knocked it over and she and the cats lapped it up...

[ionel]

17 minutes ago, Hurricane Wrestling said:

The granddaughter knocked it over and she and the cats lapped it up...

I don't know what to say ... sorry for @Nak21's loss.  

[Eagle26]

2 hours ago, boconnell said:

Which of those other freshman showed you anything that makes you think they beat him at least once?  Seidel was reasonably close when Forrest first left HS, and then 6 weeks later he got soundly beat in every facet.  Davino was fantastic and got beat in every facet.  

If the argument is that someone is likely to beat him at some point because perfection is super hard, then that makes a lot of sense.  But there is nothing about the relative levels of Jax and the other freshmen that says he ever loses to them.

I agree with you that Jax was a level above this weekend. He was not a level above Seidel in their match earlier this season, but that shows his growth. He definitely controlled Davino and did not look in danger, but it’s still a one takedown match. We did not get to see him vs. Blaze this season. Nothing makes me think Blaze would beat him, but styles make a difference and Jax likes to shoot and Blaze has excellent reattacks. 
 

So while I agree Jax is clearly the best wrestler now, we’ve seen historically how others can study a “better” wrestler and find a way to beat him. I believe that Seidel, Davino, and Blaze are all good enough that they could come up with a game plan to beat Jax even though they might not be better. Jax will be training to beat the world, but if they train to just be Jax, it’s probably going to happen. We’ve even seen this with the GOAT Jordan Burroughs. 

[boconnell]

18 minutes ago, Eagle26 said:

I agree with you that Jax was a level above this weekend. He was not a level above Seidel in their match earlier this season, but that shows his growth. He definitely controlled Davino and did not look in danger, but it’s still a one takedown match. We did not get to see him vs. Blaze this season. Nothing makes me think Blaze would beat him, but styles make a difference and Jax likes to shoot and Blaze has excellent reattacks. 
 

So while I agree Jax is clearly the best wrestler now, we’ve seen historically how others can study a “better” wrestler and find a way to beat him. I believe that Seidel, Davino, and Blaze are all good enough that they could come up with a game plan to beat Jax even though they might not be better. Jax will be training to beat the world, but if they train to just be Jax, it’s probably going to happen. We’ve even seen this with the GOAT Jordan Burroughs. 

I think if Jax loses a match in college, it's more likely to a guy in HS right now.  Broad trends are showing how hard it is to win the college grind game the older you get.  Mendez didn't get caught by a peer, he got passed by a kid who wasn't on his radar 6 months ago.  In the lower weights where strength is less a part of it, I think it's turning into a young man's game.

Plus I know some HS kid was his 2nd toughest match of the 'year' at powerade.

[ionel]

22 minutes ago, Eagle26 said:

 We’ve even seen this with the GOAT Jordan Burroughs. 

JB is not the GOAT ... just ask him or listen when he talks.  

[Eagle26]

18 minutes ago, boconnell said:

I think if Jax loses a match in college, it's more likely to a guy in HS right now.  Broad trends are showing how hard it is to win the college grind game the older you get.  Mendez didn't get caught by a peer, he got passed by a kid who wasn't on his radar 6 months ago.  In the lower weights where strength is less a part of it, I think it's turning into a young man's game.

Plus I know some HS kid was his 2nd toughest match of the 'year' at powerade.

That’s a good point too

[OopsyDaisy1]

23 hours ago, WrestlingRash said:

A threat? Weird way to think about it. I don't think Cael is as lame as the 72 dolphins who celebrate being undefeated champs every year when the last undefeated team loses. "Threat" insinuates he would be mad someone else matched his feat. 

Vega looks like he can get a lot stronger so I don't think he has even come close to his ceiling. Jax is a generational talent and is able to rise above whatever level his opponent brings to the table. Both have a good chance of running the table. However, injuries are real, the season is a crazy grind, and being "on" for every match as a 20 year old is not common. I'd pick Jax to be the better bet of the two, but wouldn't be surprised at either one of them pulling it off. The lower match count certainly increases the chances. 

I don't think the lower match count changes much. Jax or Vega could wrestle 10 more times each season, but I don't see a real threat of losing to anyone but the top few guys. Adding a bunch of dates against random unranked guys doesn't change much other than adding a bunch of wins to their total. 

[WrestlingRash]

1 minute ago, OopsyDaisy1 said:

I don't think the lower match count changes much. Jax or Vega could wrestle 10 more times each season, but I don't see a real threat of losing to anyone but the top few guys. Adding a bunch of dates against random unranked guys doesn't change much other than adding a bunch of wins to their total. 

easier to go 90-0 vs 159-0

[BigTimeFan]

On 3/24/2026 at 2:35 PM, Nak21 said:

Yes, 20 yrs into his coaching career, long since retired from competition, Cael Sanderson sits awake every night stroking his Hodge trophies and whispering “My precious…” over and over thinking about those threatening undefeated freshman who might join his club…

This is gonna be a long off season with the pastry…

stroking his three Hodge trophies 

[Gene Mills Fan]

This guy is 10-0 and has Cael soaking his bed sheets at night in fear.

[OopsyDaisy1]

22 hours ago, WrestlingRash said:

easier to go 90-0 vs 159-0

Of course. But how much easier is it if the other 69 matches were against random unranked guys? Do you think Jax and Sergio would be more likely to lose a match if facing two top 5 wrestlers or 69 unranked wrestlers? 

[WrestlingRash]

1 hour ago, OopsyDaisy1 said:

Of course. But how much easier is it if the other 69 matches were against random unranked guys? Do you think Jax and Sergio would be more likely to lose a match if facing two top 5 wrestlers or 69 unranked wrestlers? 

that is a false dichotomy. 

[Fred]

On 3/25/2026 at 2:59 PM, WrestlingRash said:

easier to go 90-0 vs 159-0

90-0, no redshirt > 159-0 w/redshrt

Carl’s record is in danger

Edited March 27 by Fred

[Caveira]

On 3/26/2026 at 7:06 PM, Fred said:

90-0, no redshirt > 159-0 w/redshrt

Carl’s record is in danger

159-0 with redshirt loss 

[1032004]

On 3/24/2026 at 6:18 PM, boconnell said:

Blaze is firmly in Jax's rearview at this point

Whoops?

[boconnell]

1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

Whoops?

Absolutely whoops.  

Blaze got it done.  I hope he brings back gold now.

[AZ_wrestling]

If Jax finishes with three straight Hodges, which is possible, I think an argument can be made.

[nhs67]

8 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Whoops?

7 hours ago, boconnell said:

Absolutely whoops.  

Blaze got it done.  I hope he brings back gold now.

What did Cael do in Freestyle by the summer after his redshirt season?

[The_KC_Godfather]

Could you offset Carl’s extra matches with the level of competition these guys have? I would have said Jax has the best chance (talent-wise), but not with Marcus Blaze and Ben Davino around (see WTT and Final X).

Vega certainly dominated his freshman year, but it sounds like he doesn’t do much during the offseason, which allows opponents to catch up. He also still has the body of a teenager, so I could see him being a Zahid and growing to the upper weights at some point.

They all have the disadvantage of Bo Bassett possibly being in their weight class at some point over the next 3 years. Not saying he wins, but just makes it that much harder…

[WrestlingRash]

On 3/24/2026 at 2:36 PM, boconnell said:

Are we safe in assuming Messenbrink can beat Nico Ruiz?  At what point can we assume undefeated NCAA champs can beat guys down bracket with multiple losses?  Guys who got worked by guys worked by the champ?  

But if you want to hang on to the fantasy that Blaze can beat Forrest, go right ahead.  I'll just walk away from this pointless discussion like I need to.

Blaze can beat Forrest. Davino can beat Forrest. Seidel can beat Forrest.